Tuesday MLB Plays

[Nick Douglas]

Three for today at a dollar apiece. Good luck. Any questions about these or other games are welcome. GL today.

KANSAS CITY -120 over Toronto 120/100

White Sox +115 over MINNESOTA 100/115

Houston +115 over METS 100/115

 

[taoist]

nick, i'm with ya on houst and the chisox. i'd like to get your take on mont and lad today.... vasquez at home and ishii on the road.... thanks and good luck today.

 

[TheShrimp]

Did you ever post anything about pitchers in their major league debut, or have any stats about it?

I seem to recall some info about it back when Prior was making his first start for the Cubbies.

The O's have a guy going tonight who's never pitched above AAA before. I have a play on it, but I'm thinking about dropping a little more even though the line has dropped a shade.

Thanks,
TheShrimp

 

[theGibber1]

good luck mr. douglas!

 

[Nick Douglas]

taoist,

Cincy was almost a play against the Dodgers because of how the Dodgers have struggled offensively, but the Reds have a lefty-heavy lineup so I decided I will not bet the Reds vs. a lefty starter the rest of the season. If I had to bet a side there I guess I would bet LA for that exact reason but I think it is a risky play.

Montreal is a play I looked strongly at but passed. Just too many question marks about Montreal and Vazquez, while sharp, has not been good enough so that I would play him against a team playing as well as Arizona. Remember, the Dbacks were 2 1/2 back just 3 weeks ago at the All Star break and now they have a comfortable lead. If I was forced to pick a side I'd take the Expos but it is just way too risky to play against the Dbacks today in my opinion.

Shrimp,

I don't have any stats on that. I do remember several pitchers this year starting off well in major league debuts but I also remember betting the O's last year around this time with a guy named Sean Douglass, who was supposedly a AAA stud. He was rocked by garbage Texas and lasted about 2 innings. My advice is to read the Baltimore papers and try to find whatever you can about him if you are going to play him. The good thing is that he is facing a young lineup. I passed on that game because of the new pitcher.

Gibber,

Thanks and good luck to you, too.

 

[TheShrimp]

true nick.

He might have been double A player of the year at Bowie last year. He had a sub 2 era.

This year he is something like 10-3 with an ERA around 3 at Rochester (AAA). He's facing a bad line-up in a low-stress stadium (compared to say NY or even at Home, say).

All of that got me in on him. I was looking for something more about pitcher debuts to strengthen the play, but I'll stick with what I have. The number has dropped on the O's since this morning so there's been some $$$ coming in on them.

GL today. Thanks for replying.

 

[mack the knife]

If you were to play "virgin dogs" over the past 10 years, you would be up a fair amount of money overall, and up every year (i believe).

Virign dogs are 1st time MLB pitchers, not just starters. Stay away from them if favored; play on them (blindly) as doggies.

My feeling is that unknown and mediocre performing minor league pitchers are viewed way to negatively by the betting public, and they attract more attention than the team does in these spots, so they are win in decent excess of their line value.

mack

 

[Meestermike]

GL today Nick.

Like the White Sox and Royals plays.

 

[THE HITMAN]

I agree with Mack. While I don't have the stats to back myself up, it just seems that these rookies have done better than expected.........I have made it a personal rule to not go against them and it seems like I have had that rule in place for 3-4 years..........THE HITMAN

 

[Nick Douglas]

Mike, thanks for the words.

Shrimp, it looks like your paly today is a solid one. GL on that. I will be keeping an eye on that one.

GL, all.