08:05 PM [958] TOTAL u7-125 (MIA MARLINS vrs CHI CUBS) ( J FERNANDEZ -R / J HAMMEL -R )
09:40 PM [961] WAS NATIONALS -1.5 +100 ( T ROARK -R / R RAY -L )
10:10 PM [963] MIL BREWERS -119 ( Z DAVIES -R / L PERDOMO -R )
07:10 PM [970] TB RAYS -123 ( Y VENTURA -R / M ANDRIESE -R )
07:10 PM [971] TOTAL o9.5 -115 (CHI WHITE SOX vrs DET TIGERS) ( J SHIELDS -R / A SANCHEZ -R )
10:05 PM [976] LA ANGELS -148 ( S MANAEA -L / M SHOEMAKER -R )
07:10 PM [980] TOTAL u6.5 -120 (NY YANKEES vrs NY METS) ( M TANAKA -R / J DEGROM -R )
1 unit bet pays 68 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-123, -28.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
Jos? Fern?ndez has been a superb "bounce back" ace this season. After allowing 3 or more ER in a start (5 of them), he has allowed just 3 ER total, across 32 innings, in his next starts! Unfortunately, all but one of those bounce back starts were at home, where he pitches much better than da road (and faced pretty weak batting teams too)..with Kid K as a road fave, Miami is 3-6 since the start of 2015 (only 2nd time this season Cubbies a home dog - beat Scherzer June 6) ....still, the under I like.. Under is 11-3 in last 14 games at Wrigley Field... And maybe the 'yes' run in 1st inning, because when Kid K gives up runs on the road, almost always in first inning...but jeeze!, if it were a home start today, we'd have a slew of really strong bets to jump all over....yes, Kid K's stamina for this first full season since 2013 will need some watching, but that's a few starts from now....
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Giants / Phillies Under 4 1st Half
I love this play because it takes 5 runs to beat us here. I also feel that it's the safer bet than taking under 7.5 for the game because we won't have to worry about the bullpens. It's almost certain that Madison Bumgarner is going to give you 5 innings. He has pitched 5 or more innings in every start this year and you have go to back to April 11 of last year to find a start where he didn't go that deep into the ball game. It's hard to imagine MadBum giving up more than a run in the first 5 innings, against this Phillies line up, that has gone under the total in 8 of their last 9 home games. Zach Eflin goes for the Phils and even though he has been up and down this year, he pitched 6 innings of 1 run ball his last start against the Giants and given the way the Giants offense has been performing post All-Star break, runs look like they are going to be tough to come by in this game.
the Giants are still just 4-11 since the All Star break, and this price is pushing them out at a level they just have not been playing at. I think the Phillies are a sneaky out-of-the-way team that will go hard to the end of the schedule, and bring a little more enthusiasm than we would normally see from a group with their record.
Dylan Bundy - 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. So all three baserunners scored as he allowed two longballs in the sixth inning, which looks to me like a problem that isn't going to go away for a while. His Changeup was looking great in that last start though, and he was able to get half of his Curveballs for strikes. There is clear upside here, though I still have concerns about his Fastball command.
Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers are a pair of strikeout studs who help you forget their flaws: home runs and walks, respectively...Darvish has logged 26 strikeouts in 16.3 innings while McCullers has 28 in 19.3. Both have tough matchups as they AL East powerhouses, but they also have the skill to make them matchup-proof. Darvish has yet to go more than six innings in a start while McCullers runs up big pitch counts via the walks and has averaged just under six innings per start.
KC are 2-8 in Yordano Ventura's last 10 starts.
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -121
Not a fan of KC's Yordano Ventura and his 4.87 FIP and 4.62 xFIP. Ventura also owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the road this season. He walks too many batters for my liking.
Matt Andriese has been very solid for the Rays, and his 2.92 ERA, 3.15 FIP & 4.24 xFIP give him the clear edge over Mr. Ventura. Unlike his counterpart, Andriese does not walk many batters (17 BB in 72 IP). Andriese allowed just two earned runs in 11.2 total innings in his two career starts against the Royals (one in '15 and one this season).
KC's bullpen has been a complete disaster lately, while the Rays' pen has been solid.
We also have a clear offensive edge with the Rays. Tampa Bay ranks #14 in the league against righties, while KC ranks #23. And I think the offensive gap is even greater than that.
My line on this game is Rays -150, so clear value for me on Tampa Bay. The Royals are just 18-36 on the road this season, and they are clearly trending south.
Tanaka is 1-1, 2.65 in his last three starts; under is 9-4 in his last 13. Bronx is 6-4 in his road starts.
deGrom is 3-1, 1.82 in his last six starts; eight of his last ten stayed under. Mets are 7-3 in his home starts.
Chicago @ DETROIT
DETROIT -1? +131 over Chicago
Anibal Sanchez has an overall ERA of 6.46. In four July starts, Sanchez was even worse with an ERA of 8.41 to go along with a WHIP of 1.87. By contrast, James Shields owns a 1.78 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his last five starts after a horrible run when he first joined the South Side. Both pitchers now come into this start with extremely misleading surface stats and we?re going to try and take advantage.
Under the hood, Sanchez has regained the form that made him one of the nastiest pitchers in the game not so long ago. Anibal Sanchez made four starts in July and his skills looked rejuvenated in them with 12 K?s/9, 3.5 BB?s/9 and 42% groundballs. His underlying 11% swing and miss rate and 66% first-pitch strike rate gives support for his resurgent strikeout rate and solid command. The combination of a crazy high 49% hit rate and low 53% strand rate were the reasons for his 8.41 ERA and 1.87 WHIP during his July starts. Sanchez is a high-upside speculation down the stretch because his surface stats do not reveal how good he was in July but his xERA in July was a terrific 3.39.
Back to Shields? 1.78 ERA over his last five starts. It?s all a mirage just like Big Game himself. Over those aforementioned five starts, Shields? had a brutal BB/K split of 11/16 over 35 innings. His xERA of 5.25 over that stretch reveals that almost every hard hit ball was hit right at someone. Shields is not pitching any better now than he was when he first joined the White Sox and pitched to an ERA of 11.07 after his first five starts. Shields? is still getting whacked and he?ll now face the Tigers for the third time this season. The first two times he faced Detroit, Shields? allowed 16 hits and nine runs in 11 innings with five K?s and five walks issued. The tip of Shields? decline started long ago and whatever success he has from here on in will be luck driven because he has no skills left whatsoever. James Shields will get hit hard here and it's just a matter of whether those balls find holes or not. We're betting the former.
I throw a lot of shade at Gerrit Cole as I call him the King of Really Good. I still stand by that after he tossed 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks against the Mariners yesterday. Yeah, I know that this isn't Really Good, it's Really Baller. And look, I want Cole to propel himself to a comfortable spot in the Top 15, maybe even Top 10. That would be fantastic. But I just don't buy that he'll be this productive in future starts and remember, he still hasn't had an outing about 7 Ks all season. That's in 15 starts! There's also his 3.8% HR/FB rate that is as sustainable as an economy based on endless growth, which makes you wonder if his 3.92 xFIP will come into play in the near future. But hey, this is a season of so many unappealing starters disappointing left and right and Cole is a guy that is holding steady despite not giving you ace performances errr day. I don't call him a King for nothing.
St. Louis is 14-3 in Waino's last 17 starts and has won six of his last seven road starts.
Cinci has won 4 of Straily's last 5 starts.
what was the biggest chink in the Cubs armor, a bullpen that was below average through the first half of the season, has now been crafted into arguably being MLB?s best. It is not just the quality but also the style elements, with Aroldis Chapman, Mike Montgomery and Jose Smith bringing Joe Madden a plethora of diverse late-game options. That bullpen was set up letter-perfect by Kyle Hendricks last night, all arms now rested and ready, so the Chicago edges over the Miami relief corps is a significant late factor, especially since Don Mattingly has no intention of Fernandez throwing a pitch in the 8th inning this season. Note that in exactly half of the 20 Fernandez start he did not work into the 7th. The Cubs lead the Major?s in walk percentage, and a game plan of being patient this evening can help to get Fernandez out perhaps after six.
Meanwhile Jason Hammel continues to be a steady on the throttle guy that does not bring much sex appeal, but keeps churning innings, throwing strikes and getting outs. FIP and SIERA don?t like his outcomes because of that .244 BABIP - that is part of the package you get when you pitch for the Cubs ? their team BABIP allowed for the full season is .257, so Hammel isn?t any kind of outlier in the category. Fortunately that is not a common market perception, hence this price point.
Ray will be facing the Nationals for the first time in his career. Roark, meanwhile, will be looking to extend his dominance against the Diamondbacks. In five games (two starts) covering 18 1/3 innings vs. Arizona, Roark has yet to allow an earned run.
Tanner Roark is another one of those guys who gets an unnecessary overreaction to his bad starts as if they're automatically the beginning of the end. I get it, I also worry sometimes about the guys who rely on weak contact to be successful. But virtually every aspect of Roark's season has been even better than his 2014 breakout. Only his walk rate has gone the other way and it's still at a reasonable seven percent mark. Arizona can be a tough venue on anyone, but he's toting a career-best 51 percent groundball rate and hasn't fallen victim to the league-wide surge in homers with a 0.6 HR/9, down from 1.4 last year when he really struggled in a transition to the bullpen.
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Washington Nationals -145
The Nationals pounded the Diamondbacks last night and we see another good performance from them tonight. The Nationals send RH Tanner Roark (10-6, 2.96 ERA) to the mound against the Diamondbacks LH Robbie Ray (5-10, 4.70 ERA) Roark has pitched well all year and in his last 7 appearances to the mound he has a 4-1 record, with a 2.49 ERA and a WHIP of 1.04. On the road he has a respectable 5-2 record with a 3.15 ERA. As for Ray he hasn't pitched very well of late as he has a 1-5 record with a 5.18 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.30 in his last 7 starts. At home Ray has not fared much better, as he is sporting a 5.01 ERA with a WHIP of 1.527. Backing our selection is the fact that the Nationals are 7-1 in Roark's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record and that the Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Rays last 7 starts.
over is 10-2-1 in last 13 games at Chase Field.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -120
Zach Davies is quietly becoming one of the better pitchers in the National League with an 8-4 record and 3.59 ERA and four quality starts in a row. Davies has allowed only five earned runs his last 26 1/3 innings and Milwaukee has won eight of his last 11 starts. The right-hander was 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in July and gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings against San Diego in one appearance this year. Meanwhile, Luis Perdomo has a 6.89 ERA and has been blessed by good run support, but he has a 9.00 ERA at home while allowing 26 runs and 46 hits in 26 innings. The Brewers have won four of their last five games and the Padres have lost nine of their last 14 games.
Zach Davies--The Padres deserve credit for being better this year, but they excel versus lefties, so the right-handed Davies gets to face an offense with a 29th-ranked OPS of just .670, including a 25 percent strikeout rate.
Biggest UNDER run: Giants (5-0 last five)
The reason for San Francisco?s current UNDER run is more about the Giants? lack of offensive pop as opposed to great pitching. San Francisco has scored three runs or fewer in four of the past five games, but the irony is the Giants? starters in the last two wins against the Nationals were past-their-prime veterans in Jake Peavy and Matt Cain. The Giants have been ice-cold on the road since the All-Star break, posting a 1-7 record and going UNDER the total six times as San Francisco travels to Philadelphia tonight. Madison Bumgarner takes the mound as a substantial favorite, as the Giants? ace has finished UNDER the total in four consecutive outings.
Biggest OVER run: Cardinals (5-0 last five)
St. Louis has played some interesting games during its current OVER streak, with three games decided by a 5-4 count, including Sunday?s walk-off loss in Miami. The Cardinals also suffered their worst loss of the season in Saturday?s 11-0 rout at the hands of the Marlins, as St. Louis has put together three streaks of five straight OVERS this season, but are looking for its first streak of six. The Redbirds head to Cincinnati this evening, as four of the first six meetings this season have sailed OVER the total, while the Reds have scored at least six runs in four straight home contests.
Milwaukee @ SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO +105 over Milwaukee
The Brewers are favored again in San Diego for the second straight night and once again it is not warranted. Zach Davies has generated a nifty 1.71 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in four starts over July but we?re not buying it. Before you keep riding him, note that he doesn't miss bats at a high rate and is at the mercy of batted balls in play. Davies had just 17 K?s in 26 innings in July with a slightly below average swing and miss rate of 8%. His 36% ball% suggests that his pinpoint control won't stick. He gets away with a sub-90 mph fastball by using one of the better changeups in the NL (21% swing and miss % on it) but it's his only true strikeout pitch, so he's someone who could struggle the more that NL lineups see him. Historically, Davies has not been good prior to this year. He has a repeatable delivery and generates enough groundballs to be a #4 or #5 starter for quite some time but with that 88 MPH fastball and one strikeout pitch, he?ll likely never be better than he is right now, which is merely average.
Luis Perdomo is anything but average. He?s also a great example of surface stats being extremely misleading. Perdomo comes in with a 6.89 ERA after 10 starts and 25 overall appearances. We have written about Perdomo many times in the past and we?ll bring you up to speed on him again.Prior to this year, Perdomo hadn?t pitched above Single-A. He was also crushed in the spring. However, as a Rule 5 selection, even though he was selected by Colorado and immediately traded to the Padres, those restrictions transfer to his new team. In other words, if the Padres sent him down, they would lose him back to his former team. They were willing to roster him all year so as not to lose him and after spending much time in the pen and posting a 10.38 ERA in 15 appearances, the Padres moved him into the starting rotation in early June.
Perdomo has shaved four runs off his ERA since the move. He quietly posted a 3.45 ERA in July. He has a unique profile in that he can strike out batters with two filthy offerings and induce groundballs at an extreme level (62%). His solid 65% first-pitch strike rate and 32% ball% combination reveals that he just keeps learning and getting better. In June, he was the only starting pitcher in the majors who combined a 12%+ swing and miss rate and 60%+ groundball rate. With mid-90s heat, a steep groundball tilt, and one of the better curveballs in the NL West (18% swing and miss % against it), we?re pretty sure that the Padres received 29 calls at the trade deadline inquiring about Perdomo before teams' inquired about James Shields, Colin Rea, Drew Pomeranz or Andrew Cashner. Most GM?s know all about Perdomo while this market knows very little. The window to buy low on him is closing fast.
09:40 PM [961] WAS NATIONALS -1.5 +100 ( T ROARK -R / R RAY -L )
10:10 PM [963] MIL BREWERS -119 ( Z DAVIES -R / L PERDOMO -R )
07:10 PM [970] TB RAYS -123 ( Y VENTURA -R / M ANDRIESE -R )
07:10 PM [971] TOTAL o9.5 -115 (CHI WHITE SOX vrs DET TIGERS) ( J SHIELDS -R / A SANCHEZ -R )
10:05 PM [976] LA ANGELS -148 ( S MANAEA -L / M SHOEMAKER -R )
07:10 PM [980] TOTAL u6.5 -120 (NY YANKEES vrs NY METS) ( M TANAKA -R / J DEGROM -R )
1 unit bet pays 68 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-123, -28.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
Jos? Fern?ndez has been a superb "bounce back" ace this season. After allowing 3 or more ER in a start (5 of them), he has allowed just 3 ER total, across 32 innings, in his next starts! Unfortunately, all but one of those bounce back starts were at home, where he pitches much better than da road (and faced pretty weak batting teams too)..with Kid K as a road fave, Miami is 3-6 since the start of 2015 (only 2nd time this season Cubbies a home dog - beat Scherzer June 6) ....still, the under I like.. Under is 11-3 in last 14 games at Wrigley Field... And maybe the 'yes' run in 1st inning, because when Kid K gives up runs on the road, almost always in first inning...but jeeze!, if it were a home start today, we'd have a slew of really strong bets to jump all over....yes, Kid K's stamina for this first full season since 2013 will need some watching, but that's a few starts from now....
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Giants / Phillies Under 4 1st Half
I love this play because it takes 5 runs to beat us here. I also feel that it's the safer bet than taking under 7.5 for the game because we won't have to worry about the bullpens. It's almost certain that Madison Bumgarner is going to give you 5 innings. He has pitched 5 or more innings in every start this year and you have go to back to April 11 of last year to find a start where he didn't go that deep into the ball game. It's hard to imagine MadBum giving up more than a run in the first 5 innings, against this Phillies line up, that has gone under the total in 8 of their last 9 home games. Zach Eflin goes for the Phils and even though he has been up and down this year, he pitched 6 innings of 1 run ball his last start against the Giants and given the way the Giants offense has been performing post All-Star break, runs look like they are going to be tough to come by in this game.
the Giants are still just 4-11 since the All Star break, and this price is pushing them out at a level they just have not been playing at. I think the Phillies are a sneaky out-of-the-way team that will go hard to the end of the schedule, and bring a little more enthusiasm than we would normally see from a group with their record.
Dylan Bundy - 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. So all three baserunners scored as he allowed two longballs in the sixth inning, which looks to me like a problem that isn't going to go away for a while. His Changeup was looking great in that last start though, and he was able to get half of his Curveballs for strikes. There is clear upside here, though I still have concerns about his Fastball command.
Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers are a pair of strikeout studs who help you forget their flaws: home runs and walks, respectively...Darvish has logged 26 strikeouts in 16.3 innings while McCullers has 28 in 19.3. Both have tough matchups as they AL East powerhouses, but they also have the skill to make them matchup-proof. Darvish has yet to go more than six innings in a start while McCullers runs up big pitch counts via the walks and has averaged just under six innings per start.
KC are 2-8 in Yordano Ventura's last 10 starts.
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -121
Not a fan of KC's Yordano Ventura and his 4.87 FIP and 4.62 xFIP. Ventura also owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the road this season. He walks too many batters for my liking.
Matt Andriese has been very solid for the Rays, and his 2.92 ERA, 3.15 FIP & 4.24 xFIP give him the clear edge over Mr. Ventura. Unlike his counterpart, Andriese does not walk many batters (17 BB in 72 IP). Andriese allowed just two earned runs in 11.2 total innings in his two career starts against the Royals (one in '15 and one this season).
KC's bullpen has been a complete disaster lately, while the Rays' pen has been solid.
We also have a clear offensive edge with the Rays. Tampa Bay ranks #14 in the league against righties, while KC ranks #23. And I think the offensive gap is even greater than that.
My line on this game is Rays -150, so clear value for me on Tampa Bay. The Royals are just 18-36 on the road this season, and they are clearly trending south.
Tanaka is 1-1, 2.65 in his last three starts; under is 9-4 in his last 13. Bronx is 6-4 in his road starts.
deGrom is 3-1, 1.82 in his last six starts; eight of his last ten stayed under. Mets are 7-3 in his home starts.
Chicago @ DETROIT
DETROIT -1? +131 over Chicago
Anibal Sanchez has an overall ERA of 6.46. In four July starts, Sanchez was even worse with an ERA of 8.41 to go along with a WHIP of 1.87. By contrast, James Shields owns a 1.78 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his last five starts after a horrible run when he first joined the South Side. Both pitchers now come into this start with extremely misleading surface stats and we?re going to try and take advantage.
Under the hood, Sanchez has regained the form that made him one of the nastiest pitchers in the game not so long ago. Anibal Sanchez made four starts in July and his skills looked rejuvenated in them with 12 K?s/9, 3.5 BB?s/9 and 42% groundballs. His underlying 11% swing and miss rate and 66% first-pitch strike rate gives support for his resurgent strikeout rate and solid command. The combination of a crazy high 49% hit rate and low 53% strand rate were the reasons for his 8.41 ERA and 1.87 WHIP during his July starts. Sanchez is a high-upside speculation down the stretch because his surface stats do not reveal how good he was in July but his xERA in July was a terrific 3.39.
Back to Shields? 1.78 ERA over his last five starts. It?s all a mirage just like Big Game himself. Over those aforementioned five starts, Shields? had a brutal BB/K split of 11/16 over 35 innings. His xERA of 5.25 over that stretch reveals that almost every hard hit ball was hit right at someone. Shields is not pitching any better now than he was when he first joined the White Sox and pitched to an ERA of 11.07 after his first five starts. Shields? is still getting whacked and he?ll now face the Tigers for the third time this season. The first two times he faced Detroit, Shields? allowed 16 hits and nine runs in 11 innings with five K?s and five walks issued. The tip of Shields? decline started long ago and whatever success he has from here on in will be luck driven because he has no skills left whatsoever. James Shields will get hit hard here and it's just a matter of whether those balls find holes or not. We're betting the former.
I throw a lot of shade at Gerrit Cole as I call him the King of Really Good. I still stand by that after he tossed 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks against the Mariners yesterday. Yeah, I know that this isn't Really Good, it's Really Baller. And look, I want Cole to propel himself to a comfortable spot in the Top 15, maybe even Top 10. That would be fantastic. But I just don't buy that he'll be this productive in future starts and remember, he still hasn't had an outing about 7 Ks all season. That's in 15 starts! There's also his 3.8% HR/FB rate that is as sustainable as an economy based on endless growth, which makes you wonder if his 3.92 xFIP will come into play in the near future. But hey, this is a season of so many unappealing starters disappointing left and right and Cole is a guy that is holding steady despite not giving you ace performances errr day. I don't call him a King for nothing.
St. Louis is 14-3 in Waino's last 17 starts and has won six of his last seven road starts.
Cinci has won 4 of Straily's last 5 starts.
what was the biggest chink in the Cubs armor, a bullpen that was below average through the first half of the season, has now been crafted into arguably being MLB?s best. It is not just the quality but also the style elements, with Aroldis Chapman, Mike Montgomery and Jose Smith bringing Joe Madden a plethora of diverse late-game options. That bullpen was set up letter-perfect by Kyle Hendricks last night, all arms now rested and ready, so the Chicago edges over the Miami relief corps is a significant late factor, especially since Don Mattingly has no intention of Fernandez throwing a pitch in the 8th inning this season. Note that in exactly half of the 20 Fernandez start he did not work into the 7th. The Cubs lead the Major?s in walk percentage, and a game plan of being patient this evening can help to get Fernandez out perhaps after six.
Meanwhile Jason Hammel continues to be a steady on the throttle guy that does not bring much sex appeal, but keeps churning innings, throwing strikes and getting outs. FIP and SIERA don?t like his outcomes because of that .244 BABIP - that is part of the package you get when you pitch for the Cubs ? their team BABIP allowed for the full season is .257, so Hammel isn?t any kind of outlier in the category. Fortunately that is not a common market perception, hence this price point.
Ray will be facing the Nationals for the first time in his career. Roark, meanwhile, will be looking to extend his dominance against the Diamondbacks. In five games (two starts) covering 18 1/3 innings vs. Arizona, Roark has yet to allow an earned run.
Tanner Roark is another one of those guys who gets an unnecessary overreaction to his bad starts as if they're automatically the beginning of the end. I get it, I also worry sometimes about the guys who rely on weak contact to be successful. But virtually every aspect of Roark's season has been even better than his 2014 breakout. Only his walk rate has gone the other way and it's still at a reasonable seven percent mark. Arizona can be a tough venue on anyone, but he's toting a career-best 51 percent groundball rate and hasn't fallen victim to the league-wide surge in homers with a 0.6 HR/9, down from 1.4 last year when he really struggled in a transition to the bullpen.
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Washington Nationals -145
The Nationals pounded the Diamondbacks last night and we see another good performance from them tonight. The Nationals send RH Tanner Roark (10-6, 2.96 ERA) to the mound against the Diamondbacks LH Robbie Ray (5-10, 4.70 ERA) Roark has pitched well all year and in his last 7 appearances to the mound he has a 4-1 record, with a 2.49 ERA and a WHIP of 1.04. On the road he has a respectable 5-2 record with a 3.15 ERA. As for Ray he hasn't pitched very well of late as he has a 1-5 record with a 5.18 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.30 in his last 7 starts. At home Ray has not fared much better, as he is sporting a 5.01 ERA with a WHIP of 1.527. Backing our selection is the fact that the Nationals are 7-1 in Roark's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record and that the Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Rays last 7 starts.
over is 10-2-1 in last 13 games at Chase Field.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -120
Zach Davies is quietly becoming one of the better pitchers in the National League with an 8-4 record and 3.59 ERA and four quality starts in a row. Davies has allowed only five earned runs his last 26 1/3 innings and Milwaukee has won eight of his last 11 starts. The right-hander was 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in July and gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings against San Diego in one appearance this year. Meanwhile, Luis Perdomo has a 6.89 ERA and has been blessed by good run support, but he has a 9.00 ERA at home while allowing 26 runs and 46 hits in 26 innings. The Brewers have won four of their last five games and the Padres have lost nine of their last 14 games.
Zach Davies--The Padres deserve credit for being better this year, but they excel versus lefties, so the right-handed Davies gets to face an offense with a 29th-ranked OPS of just .670, including a 25 percent strikeout rate.
Biggest UNDER run: Giants (5-0 last five)
The reason for San Francisco?s current UNDER run is more about the Giants? lack of offensive pop as opposed to great pitching. San Francisco has scored three runs or fewer in four of the past five games, but the irony is the Giants? starters in the last two wins against the Nationals were past-their-prime veterans in Jake Peavy and Matt Cain. The Giants have been ice-cold on the road since the All-Star break, posting a 1-7 record and going UNDER the total six times as San Francisco travels to Philadelphia tonight. Madison Bumgarner takes the mound as a substantial favorite, as the Giants? ace has finished UNDER the total in four consecutive outings.
Biggest OVER run: Cardinals (5-0 last five)
St. Louis has played some interesting games during its current OVER streak, with three games decided by a 5-4 count, including Sunday?s walk-off loss in Miami. The Cardinals also suffered their worst loss of the season in Saturday?s 11-0 rout at the hands of the Marlins, as St. Louis has put together three streaks of five straight OVERS this season, but are looking for its first streak of six. The Redbirds head to Cincinnati this evening, as four of the first six meetings this season have sailed OVER the total, while the Reds have scored at least six runs in four straight home contests.
Milwaukee @ SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO +105 over Milwaukee
The Brewers are favored again in San Diego for the second straight night and once again it is not warranted. Zach Davies has generated a nifty 1.71 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in four starts over July but we?re not buying it. Before you keep riding him, note that he doesn't miss bats at a high rate and is at the mercy of batted balls in play. Davies had just 17 K?s in 26 innings in July with a slightly below average swing and miss rate of 8%. His 36% ball% suggests that his pinpoint control won't stick. He gets away with a sub-90 mph fastball by using one of the better changeups in the NL (21% swing and miss % on it) but it's his only true strikeout pitch, so he's someone who could struggle the more that NL lineups see him. Historically, Davies has not been good prior to this year. He has a repeatable delivery and generates enough groundballs to be a #4 or #5 starter for quite some time but with that 88 MPH fastball and one strikeout pitch, he?ll likely never be better than he is right now, which is merely average.
Luis Perdomo is anything but average. He?s also a great example of surface stats being extremely misleading. Perdomo comes in with a 6.89 ERA after 10 starts and 25 overall appearances. We have written about Perdomo many times in the past and we?ll bring you up to speed on him again.Prior to this year, Perdomo hadn?t pitched above Single-A. He was also crushed in the spring. However, as a Rule 5 selection, even though he was selected by Colorado and immediately traded to the Padres, those restrictions transfer to his new team. In other words, if the Padres sent him down, they would lose him back to his former team. They were willing to roster him all year so as not to lose him and after spending much time in the pen and posting a 10.38 ERA in 15 appearances, the Padres moved him into the starting rotation in early June.
Perdomo has shaved four runs off his ERA since the move. He quietly posted a 3.45 ERA in July. He has a unique profile in that he can strike out batters with two filthy offerings and induce groundballs at an extreme level (62%). His solid 65% first-pitch strike rate and 32% ball% combination reveals that he just keeps learning and getting better. In June, he was the only starting pitcher in the majors who combined a 12%+ swing and miss rate and 60%+ groundball rate. With mid-90s heat, a steep groundball tilt, and one of the better curveballs in the NL West (18% swing and miss % against it), we?re pretty sure that the Padres received 29 calls at the trade deadline inquiring about Perdomo before teams' inquired about James Shields, Colin Rea, Drew Pomeranz or Andrew Cashner. Most GM?s know all about Perdomo while this market knows very little. The window to buy low on him is closing fast.
