08:10 PM MLB [907] ATL BRAVES +116 ( T JENKINS -R / W PERALTA -R )
08:15 PM MLB [909] CIN REDS +155 ( B FINNEGAN -L / M LEAKE -R )
07:05 PM MLB [914] TOTAL u9-115 (TB RAYS vrs TOR BLUE JAYS) ( D SMYLY -L / M ESTRADA -R )
07:10 PM MLB [916] TOTAL u9-110 (NY YANKEES vrs BOS RED SOX) ( L SEVERINO -R / R PORCELLO -R )
08:10 PM MLB [918] TOTAL u8.5 +100 (HOU ASTROS vrs MIN TWINS) ( M FIERS -R / H SANTIAGO -L )
10:05 PM MLB [921] BAL ORIOLES -128 ( W MILEY -L / Z NEAL -R )
08:05 PM MLB [930] TOTAL u9-120 (LA ANGELS vrs CHI CUBS) ( J WEAVER -R / J LACKEY -R )
1 unit bet pays 127 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-130, -35.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
In case anybody wants to make some real money, here's a bit of information everybody should know about today's women's soccer game between the USA and COLOMBIA.
Colombia is tired and pretty much has given up. USA advances and tops the group with just a draw but they're not pleased about their goal scoring prowess so far in this tournament. This is a deadly combination.
O/U is set at 3 and USA is favored by 2.5 goals, rightfully so. Over 3 has a shot to hit by halftime. Bet the over.
Estrada has allowed five hits or fewer in 16 starts this season..He also has limited the opposition to three earned runs or fewer in 12 consecutive starts.
Oh Drew Smyly. I really want to love you again. I had you near #20 earlier in the season after your baller April and it just hasn't gone your way since. But now you've looked pretty in your last three starts including last start's brilliant 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks outing and I want to believe. The problem here is that the last three opponents he's had have been as bad as they come in the AL: Oakland/NYY/Royals. He does get the padres in two starts ahead, but he has to first go against the Jays and I'm not sold enough that I'd be tossing him out there blindly. Sure, the Jays have been striking out like whoa in Houston and Smyly could rack up a decent amount, but that's not enough. Then there's Texas, Houston, Boston, Baltimore after...it's not a great outlook. I want to be wrong and watch Smyly steamroll opponents regardless of their offense, but I don't think this is a sound ROS investment right now.
Under is 18-7-1 in Estrada?s last 26 starts overall.
Smyly, meanwhile, is 2-5 with a 5.83 ERA on the road this year. The Rays are just 5-16 in their past 21 road games. The Jays are 9-4 in their past 13 in Game 2 of a series. The under is 9-2 in Estrada?s past 11 at home.
Zack Greinke will come off the disabled list to start for Arizona, making his first big league appearance since June 28. Greinke, who was on the DL with a left oblique strain, held a 1.63 ERA in his last six starts prior to his injury. After giving up five runs in a rehab start for Triple-A Reno on Wednesday, the three-time All-Star declared his oblique "100 percent. The Mets have not faced Greinke since beating him and the Dodgers in Game 5 of the 2015 National League Division Series, two of their three runs off him coming on Daniel Murphy RBIs.
The Yankees are an ugly 3-12 in their past 15 after an off day
Over is 15-5-1 in NYY last 21 road games.
After allowing no earned runs in 8 1/3 innings pitched over three appearances out of the bullpen, Severino is returning to the Yankees' starting rotation. He posted a 7.46 ERA in seven starts to begin the season.
SF are 6-15 in their last 21 overall.
Peralta gets the call in place of an injured Junior Guerra. He was so ineffective in his first 13 games (6.68 ERA, .999 opponents' OPS) that the Brewers optioned him to Triple-A, where Peralta had a 6.31 ERA in 10 starts.
Brandon Finnegan crosses up Padres with new pitch
SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Reds lefty Brandon Finnegan made some adjustments after his last start. The changes worked against the Padres Friday (July 29) night.
Finnegan incorporated a new, improved changeup into his repertoire and pitched six scoreless innings in a 6-0 victory.
"I was just throwing a fastball and slider and it's not too hard to hit that - a starter throwing two pitches," Finnegan said. "It got to the point where I was cutting (the changeup) and it was like a second slider.
"We fiddled around with it and in my last bullpen it was nothing but fastballs and changeups. We changed the grip and I was able to command it."
Reds vs. Cardinals
Play: Reds +160
Brandon Finnegan has not allowed a run in 12 innings his last two starts while walking only three and striking out nine. In three appearances against St. Louis this year, Finnegan has a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings. The Cardinals have a .205 batting average against the left-hander and they are 25th in the major leagues with a .708 OPS against southpaws. Meanwhile, Mike Leake has had three terrible starts in a row, including a 7-0 loss at Cincinnati on Thursday when he was pummeled to the tune of seven runs and eight hits in five innings. Leake has allowed 20 runs (19 earned) and 27 hits his last 16 innings. Also, Leake is just 2-5 at home this season and his opponent batting average against the Reds is .375. Cincinnati has won eight of its last nine games after a loss and the Cardinals have lost eight of their last 11 home games versus left-handed starters. This is a good spot for the road underdog.
-----
?We?ll see where we go,? manager Bob Melvin said, adding that it was nice to stay away from using Neal on Friday night, keeping him a possibility for a start. ?If we do decide on him and don?t use him in the meantime, I think he could give us upward of 80 pitches.
?He?s pitched with a lot of confidence. His last three times out have been really good.?
In his most recent stint with Oakland, Neal has not allowed a run in three games and 8 1/3 innings.
Baltimore at Oakland
Play: Baltimore -130
Oakland's pitching staff just lost two more arms as Sonny Gray and Jesse Hahn were added to the DL. As a result, the A's are forced to comb the depths of their farm system for viable options. Tonight's starter, Zach Neal, barely has bullpen quality stuff let alone enough to navigate a MLB lineup multiple times. He started one game back in late May and was torched for seven runs over four innings. His strikeout numbers are alarmingly low, even at the Minor League level. This year alone at Triple-A and Oakland, Neal is averaging less than half a strikeout per inning. Wade Miley doesn't command much respect in the betting markets and rightfully so given his season-long stats. Home runs have been his biggest bugaboo with 19 allowed over 117 innings. But Miley hasn't been that bad of late with a 4.13 ERA over his last nine starts. He walks into a decent situation tonight with a favorable ballpark and opposing lineup. There aren't too many situations where I'm looking to support an average starter like Miley as road chalk but Neal's resume suggests he's not even worthy of the tag "fringe arm." Orioles are the play tonight.
On Luis Severino?s meaningless stat line
If you are a bit old-school, you may still wake up to the morning sports section of a newspaper. I do, largely because the Las Vegas Review Journal, a journalistic featherweight across other fronts, understands the local sports audience. All MLB box scores are compiled on one page, along with the standings and pitching form on the facing page, and when laid out on the desk it is a handy platform to work from. Spread it out underneath the keyboard, and there is quick access to what is needed.
Often in this high-tech age we can all forget just how many folks do see their information that way, and when it comes to pitching forms many on-line models match the formatting AP send-out. Hence much of the world will see that Yankee starter Luis Severino is 1-6/6.02 in 2016, and that his last three starts are 0-3/8.22. Those numbers are utterly useless.
Severino is a big-time prospect that throws hard, keeps a good ratio of pitches in the strike zone, and has many of those offerings low in the zone. But he is also only 22 years old, and while his 2015 numbers were terrific, 7-0/1.91 at AAA and 5-3/2.89 with the Yankees, he may not have been fully ready to begin 2016 as a starter. Hence it was a dismal 0-6/7.46 before he was sent down, though his stuff was better than that bottom line. Once back at AAA it was a 7-1/3.25 across 10 starts, and in three relief outings since being re-called he has not allowed a run over 8.1 frames, with 10 strikeouts vs. only one hit allowed. In Severino?s last two outings his average fastball was clocked at 97.4 and 96.6. Yes, that is coming out of the bullpen, when he can cut it loose a bit more, but Severino had five starts of 95.5 or better earlier in the season. When pitchers bring that special Hi/Lo combination (high velocity/low in the strike zone), there is a lot of upside; you just won?t see it in the Severino numbers in the pitching forms.
Can we do anything with him tonight? Disappointingly no, the markets being aware that his stats don?t match his stuff. There needs to be a little more price into what has been a difficult combination to buck this season ? Rick Porcello starting for the Red Sox in Fenway. Boston has gone 11-0 in those games, out-scoring the opposition by 47 runs in the process. But there is somewhere that we can play on Tuesday?
In the Sights?
I like aces when they can be found on the bargain shelf. Pinnacle opened the White Sox -140 for tonight and is now down to -118, and that provides a nice play-on price for Chris Sale, so let?s make it #919 Chicago White Sox (8:15 Eastern), this one showing value up to -130.
The irony is that there was a play here against Sale in his last outing, noting that he was still trying to work his way back into form after a stretch in which he only had two starts over 25 days, and Sale was literally working his way back into form in that game. It was the way he did it that mattered. As noted here earlier in the season, Sale had been pitching much more to contact, the benefit of having one of the most improved defenses in MLB from 2015 to 2016 behind him. That required some precision in terms of control and changing speeds, in order to get contact outs. That precision is not easy to reclaim after the kind of awkward cycle Sale had in July. So what did he do at Detroit? He got aggressive and attacked. Sale struck out 10 of the 30 batters he faced, while only walking one. I believe that is exactly what he needed to do to get back on his game, and can pick up where he left off against a vulnerable Kansas City offense (.228/.284/.332 since the All Star break, including a .616 OPS that rates dead last by a wide margin).
Meanwhile Edinson Volquez looks worn down. He was a consummate pro for the Royals last year, topping 200 regular-season innings for the first time in his career, and then five starts and 28.2 frames in the playoffs, his last pitch being thrown on November 1. That meant one full month less of recuperation time than he had been accustomed to, off of his biggest load ever, and it is starting to show. ERA has gone from 3.55 in 2015 to 4.99 and FIP from 3.82 to 4.42, and the trending is downwards ? his last two starts showed little pop, allowing 14 runs (12 earned) over 11 innings, on 20 hits (four home runs) and five walks. At the age of 33 this may simply be who Volquez is right now.
Tampa Bay @ TORONTO
Tampa Bay +170 over TORONTO
We?re not going to go over this every time Marco Estrada pitches and we?re not going to fade him every time he pitches either. However, when it?s warranted, like it is today, we will fade Estrada and the Blue Jays. With a luck driven low hit rate and high strand rate, with an xERA almost two runs higher than his actual ERA and with his pedestrian 88-mph fastball, there should be some regression at some point for Estrada.
The Jays erupted for seven runs last night. The media is reporting that Toronto snapped out of its offensive drought so let?s go over that. With two outs in the fourth and men on 2nd and third?.Odorizzi struck out Donaldson but the catcher missed the ball (passed ball not wild pitch). Next man up hits a single and two runs score. Instead of zero runs, Toronto scores two. Bottom of seven with bases loaded and no out, Melvin Upton strikes out for the 100th time in his last 101 AB?s for the first out of the inning. Next guy up, Justin Smoak hits a comebacker and the pitcher throws home for the second out of the inning. However, as the catcher lines up to throw to first for the easy double play, the runner heading home slides into the catcher?s foot and he falls down and can?t make the throw. Instead of three outs??inning over?..one run scores and the next guy hits a double. Three runs in instead of none again. Two of the Jays seven runs were legit. So, while the media will write about an offence that woke up, if you were paying attention and watched that game, they didn?t wake up at all. They got extremely lucky and they?ll now face a pitcher that is their Kryptonite in Drew Smyly.
Drew Smyly?s 5.14 ERA is one of the five worst ERA?s in the AL among pitchers with 100+ IP. That said, Smyly is a highly skilled pitcher that has had bad fortune go against him this year. His base skills remain elite with 9.5 K?s/9, 2.5 BB?s/9 and an xERA of 3.12. In his last start, Smyly struck out 10 in seven innings. He?s suffered from a high 33% hit rate and very low 63% strand rate. His 11.2% swing and miss rate validates his lofty strikeout totals and he?ll now face a Jays? team that he has owned in his career with a 2-2 record but 0.77 WHIP and 2.65 ERA over 34 innings. The price on Smyly and the Rays here is just stupid. Can the Jays win? Of course they can but it's likely around a 50/50 propostion, which tells us exactly how to play it.
Biggest UNDER run: Blue Jays (8-1 past nine)
The Blue Jays held off the Rays 7-5 in Monday's series opener to snap an eight-game 'under' streak. In fact, all four home meetings against Tampa Bay have resulted in an 'over', with an average of 14.5 runs per game between the two sides. The 'under' is still 8-3 in Tampa Bay's past 11 against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 in their past five road games against a right-handed starter. For the Blue Jays, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in their past seven home games against a left-handed starter. The 'under' is also 9-2 in Marco Estrada's past 11 home starts, and 18-7-1 in his past 26 overall.
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (6-1 past seven, 9-2-1 past 12)
The Diamondbacks hit the road where the 'over' is 5-2-1 in their past eight games. They get Zack Greinke back from injury, and it remains to be seen how deep he'll be able to go into the game coming off an injury. The 'under' is actually 5-1 in Greinke's past six starts, but this club was much different offensively and defensively since he last pitched. The 'over' is 6-1 in Arizona's past seven overall, and 4-1-1 in their past six road games againts a team with a winning home record. The 'over' is also 4-0 in New York's past four at Citi Field.
08:15 PM MLB [909] CIN REDS +155 ( B FINNEGAN -L / M LEAKE -R )
07:05 PM MLB [914] TOTAL u9-115 (TB RAYS vrs TOR BLUE JAYS) ( D SMYLY -L / M ESTRADA -R )
07:10 PM MLB [916] TOTAL u9-110 (NY YANKEES vrs BOS RED SOX) ( L SEVERINO -R / R PORCELLO -R )
08:10 PM MLB [918] TOTAL u8.5 +100 (HOU ASTROS vrs MIN TWINS) ( M FIERS -R / H SANTIAGO -L )
10:05 PM MLB [921] BAL ORIOLES -128 ( W MILEY -L / Z NEAL -R )
08:05 PM MLB [930] TOTAL u9-120 (LA ANGELS vrs CHI CUBS) ( J WEAVER -R / J LACKEY -R )
1 unit bet pays 127 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-130, -35.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
In case anybody wants to make some real money, here's a bit of information everybody should know about today's women's soccer game between the USA and COLOMBIA.
Colombia is tired and pretty much has given up. USA advances and tops the group with just a draw but they're not pleased about their goal scoring prowess so far in this tournament. This is a deadly combination.
O/U is set at 3 and USA is favored by 2.5 goals, rightfully so. Over 3 has a shot to hit by halftime. Bet the over.
Estrada has allowed five hits or fewer in 16 starts this season..He also has limited the opposition to three earned runs or fewer in 12 consecutive starts.
Oh Drew Smyly. I really want to love you again. I had you near #20 earlier in the season after your baller April and it just hasn't gone your way since. But now you've looked pretty in your last three starts including last start's brilliant 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks outing and I want to believe. The problem here is that the last three opponents he's had have been as bad as they come in the AL: Oakland/NYY/Royals. He does get the padres in two starts ahead, but he has to first go against the Jays and I'm not sold enough that I'd be tossing him out there blindly. Sure, the Jays have been striking out like whoa in Houston and Smyly could rack up a decent amount, but that's not enough. Then there's Texas, Houston, Boston, Baltimore after...it's not a great outlook. I want to be wrong and watch Smyly steamroll opponents regardless of their offense, but I don't think this is a sound ROS investment right now.
Under is 18-7-1 in Estrada?s last 26 starts overall.
Smyly, meanwhile, is 2-5 with a 5.83 ERA on the road this year. The Rays are just 5-16 in their past 21 road games. The Jays are 9-4 in their past 13 in Game 2 of a series. The under is 9-2 in Estrada?s past 11 at home.
Zack Greinke will come off the disabled list to start for Arizona, making his first big league appearance since June 28. Greinke, who was on the DL with a left oblique strain, held a 1.63 ERA in his last six starts prior to his injury. After giving up five runs in a rehab start for Triple-A Reno on Wednesday, the three-time All-Star declared his oblique "100 percent. The Mets have not faced Greinke since beating him and the Dodgers in Game 5 of the 2015 National League Division Series, two of their three runs off him coming on Daniel Murphy RBIs.
The Yankees are an ugly 3-12 in their past 15 after an off day
Over is 15-5-1 in NYY last 21 road games.
After allowing no earned runs in 8 1/3 innings pitched over three appearances out of the bullpen, Severino is returning to the Yankees' starting rotation. He posted a 7.46 ERA in seven starts to begin the season.
SF are 6-15 in their last 21 overall.
Peralta gets the call in place of an injured Junior Guerra. He was so ineffective in his first 13 games (6.68 ERA, .999 opponents' OPS) that the Brewers optioned him to Triple-A, where Peralta had a 6.31 ERA in 10 starts.
Brandon Finnegan crosses up Padres with new pitch
SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Reds lefty Brandon Finnegan made some adjustments after his last start. The changes worked against the Padres Friday (July 29) night.
Finnegan incorporated a new, improved changeup into his repertoire and pitched six scoreless innings in a 6-0 victory.
"I was just throwing a fastball and slider and it's not too hard to hit that - a starter throwing two pitches," Finnegan said. "It got to the point where I was cutting (the changeup) and it was like a second slider.
"We fiddled around with it and in my last bullpen it was nothing but fastballs and changeups. We changed the grip and I was able to command it."
Reds vs. Cardinals
Play: Reds +160
Brandon Finnegan has not allowed a run in 12 innings his last two starts while walking only three and striking out nine. In three appearances against St. Louis this year, Finnegan has a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings. The Cardinals have a .205 batting average against the left-hander and they are 25th in the major leagues with a .708 OPS against southpaws. Meanwhile, Mike Leake has had three terrible starts in a row, including a 7-0 loss at Cincinnati on Thursday when he was pummeled to the tune of seven runs and eight hits in five innings. Leake has allowed 20 runs (19 earned) and 27 hits his last 16 innings. Also, Leake is just 2-5 at home this season and his opponent batting average against the Reds is .375. Cincinnati has won eight of its last nine games after a loss and the Cardinals have lost eight of their last 11 home games versus left-handed starters. This is a good spot for the road underdog.
-----
?We?ll see where we go,? manager Bob Melvin said, adding that it was nice to stay away from using Neal on Friday night, keeping him a possibility for a start. ?If we do decide on him and don?t use him in the meantime, I think he could give us upward of 80 pitches.
?He?s pitched with a lot of confidence. His last three times out have been really good.?
In his most recent stint with Oakland, Neal has not allowed a run in three games and 8 1/3 innings.
Baltimore at Oakland
Play: Baltimore -130
Oakland's pitching staff just lost two more arms as Sonny Gray and Jesse Hahn were added to the DL. As a result, the A's are forced to comb the depths of their farm system for viable options. Tonight's starter, Zach Neal, barely has bullpen quality stuff let alone enough to navigate a MLB lineup multiple times. He started one game back in late May and was torched for seven runs over four innings. His strikeout numbers are alarmingly low, even at the Minor League level. This year alone at Triple-A and Oakland, Neal is averaging less than half a strikeout per inning. Wade Miley doesn't command much respect in the betting markets and rightfully so given his season-long stats. Home runs have been his biggest bugaboo with 19 allowed over 117 innings. But Miley hasn't been that bad of late with a 4.13 ERA over his last nine starts. He walks into a decent situation tonight with a favorable ballpark and opposing lineup. There aren't too many situations where I'm looking to support an average starter like Miley as road chalk but Neal's resume suggests he's not even worthy of the tag "fringe arm." Orioles are the play tonight.
On Luis Severino?s meaningless stat line
If you are a bit old-school, you may still wake up to the morning sports section of a newspaper. I do, largely because the Las Vegas Review Journal, a journalistic featherweight across other fronts, understands the local sports audience. All MLB box scores are compiled on one page, along with the standings and pitching form on the facing page, and when laid out on the desk it is a handy platform to work from. Spread it out underneath the keyboard, and there is quick access to what is needed.
Often in this high-tech age we can all forget just how many folks do see their information that way, and when it comes to pitching forms many on-line models match the formatting AP send-out. Hence much of the world will see that Yankee starter Luis Severino is 1-6/6.02 in 2016, and that his last three starts are 0-3/8.22. Those numbers are utterly useless.
Severino is a big-time prospect that throws hard, keeps a good ratio of pitches in the strike zone, and has many of those offerings low in the zone. But he is also only 22 years old, and while his 2015 numbers were terrific, 7-0/1.91 at AAA and 5-3/2.89 with the Yankees, he may not have been fully ready to begin 2016 as a starter. Hence it was a dismal 0-6/7.46 before he was sent down, though his stuff was better than that bottom line. Once back at AAA it was a 7-1/3.25 across 10 starts, and in three relief outings since being re-called he has not allowed a run over 8.1 frames, with 10 strikeouts vs. only one hit allowed. In Severino?s last two outings his average fastball was clocked at 97.4 and 96.6. Yes, that is coming out of the bullpen, when he can cut it loose a bit more, but Severino had five starts of 95.5 or better earlier in the season. When pitchers bring that special Hi/Lo combination (high velocity/low in the strike zone), there is a lot of upside; you just won?t see it in the Severino numbers in the pitching forms.
Can we do anything with him tonight? Disappointingly no, the markets being aware that his stats don?t match his stuff. There needs to be a little more price into what has been a difficult combination to buck this season ? Rick Porcello starting for the Red Sox in Fenway. Boston has gone 11-0 in those games, out-scoring the opposition by 47 runs in the process. But there is somewhere that we can play on Tuesday?
In the Sights?
I like aces when they can be found on the bargain shelf. Pinnacle opened the White Sox -140 for tonight and is now down to -118, and that provides a nice play-on price for Chris Sale, so let?s make it #919 Chicago White Sox (8:15 Eastern), this one showing value up to -130.
The irony is that there was a play here against Sale in his last outing, noting that he was still trying to work his way back into form after a stretch in which he only had two starts over 25 days, and Sale was literally working his way back into form in that game. It was the way he did it that mattered. As noted here earlier in the season, Sale had been pitching much more to contact, the benefit of having one of the most improved defenses in MLB from 2015 to 2016 behind him. That required some precision in terms of control and changing speeds, in order to get contact outs. That precision is not easy to reclaim after the kind of awkward cycle Sale had in July. So what did he do at Detroit? He got aggressive and attacked. Sale struck out 10 of the 30 batters he faced, while only walking one. I believe that is exactly what he needed to do to get back on his game, and can pick up where he left off against a vulnerable Kansas City offense (.228/.284/.332 since the All Star break, including a .616 OPS that rates dead last by a wide margin).
Meanwhile Edinson Volquez looks worn down. He was a consummate pro for the Royals last year, topping 200 regular-season innings for the first time in his career, and then five starts and 28.2 frames in the playoffs, his last pitch being thrown on November 1. That meant one full month less of recuperation time than he had been accustomed to, off of his biggest load ever, and it is starting to show. ERA has gone from 3.55 in 2015 to 4.99 and FIP from 3.82 to 4.42, and the trending is downwards ? his last two starts showed little pop, allowing 14 runs (12 earned) over 11 innings, on 20 hits (four home runs) and five walks. At the age of 33 this may simply be who Volquez is right now.
Tampa Bay @ TORONTO
Tampa Bay +170 over TORONTO
We?re not going to go over this every time Marco Estrada pitches and we?re not going to fade him every time he pitches either. However, when it?s warranted, like it is today, we will fade Estrada and the Blue Jays. With a luck driven low hit rate and high strand rate, with an xERA almost two runs higher than his actual ERA and with his pedestrian 88-mph fastball, there should be some regression at some point for Estrada.
The Jays erupted for seven runs last night. The media is reporting that Toronto snapped out of its offensive drought so let?s go over that. With two outs in the fourth and men on 2nd and third?.Odorizzi struck out Donaldson but the catcher missed the ball (passed ball not wild pitch). Next man up hits a single and two runs score. Instead of zero runs, Toronto scores two. Bottom of seven with bases loaded and no out, Melvin Upton strikes out for the 100th time in his last 101 AB?s for the first out of the inning. Next guy up, Justin Smoak hits a comebacker and the pitcher throws home for the second out of the inning. However, as the catcher lines up to throw to first for the easy double play, the runner heading home slides into the catcher?s foot and he falls down and can?t make the throw. Instead of three outs??inning over?..one run scores and the next guy hits a double. Three runs in instead of none again. Two of the Jays seven runs were legit. So, while the media will write about an offence that woke up, if you were paying attention and watched that game, they didn?t wake up at all. They got extremely lucky and they?ll now face a pitcher that is their Kryptonite in Drew Smyly.
Drew Smyly?s 5.14 ERA is one of the five worst ERA?s in the AL among pitchers with 100+ IP. That said, Smyly is a highly skilled pitcher that has had bad fortune go against him this year. His base skills remain elite with 9.5 K?s/9, 2.5 BB?s/9 and an xERA of 3.12. In his last start, Smyly struck out 10 in seven innings. He?s suffered from a high 33% hit rate and very low 63% strand rate. His 11.2% swing and miss rate validates his lofty strikeout totals and he?ll now face a Jays? team that he has owned in his career with a 2-2 record but 0.77 WHIP and 2.65 ERA over 34 innings. The price on Smyly and the Rays here is just stupid. Can the Jays win? Of course they can but it's likely around a 50/50 propostion, which tells us exactly how to play it.
Biggest UNDER run: Blue Jays (8-1 past nine)
The Blue Jays held off the Rays 7-5 in Monday's series opener to snap an eight-game 'under' streak. In fact, all four home meetings against Tampa Bay have resulted in an 'over', with an average of 14.5 runs per game between the two sides. The 'under' is still 8-3 in Tampa Bay's past 11 against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 in their past five road games against a right-handed starter. For the Blue Jays, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in their past seven home games against a left-handed starter. The 'under' is also 9-2 in Marco Estrada's past 11 home starts, and 18-7-1 in his past 26 overall.
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (6-1 past seven, 9-2-1 past 12)
The Diamondbacks hit the road where the 'over' is 5-2-1 in their past eight games. They get Zack Greinke back from injury, and it remains to be seen how deep he'll be able to go into the game coming off an injury. The 'under' is actually 5-1 in Greinke's past six starts, but this club was much different offensively and defensively since he last pitched. The 'over' is 6-1 in Arizona's past seven overall, and 4-1-1 in their past six road games againts a team with a winning home record. The 'over' is also 4-0 in New York's past four at Citi Field.
