08:05 PM Game #2 [958] CHI CUBS -1.5 -105 (ANDERSON/HAMMEL)
08:40 PM [960] COL ROCKIES +113 ( G GONZALEZ -L / C BETTIS -R )
07:10 PM [970] TOTAL u7-105 (KC ROYALS vrs DET TIGERS) (DUFFY/VERLANDER)
08:05 PM [974] TEX RANGERS -138 ( A TRIGGS -R / L HARRELL -R )
07:10 PM [980] TB RAYS -200 ( E JACKSON -R / B SNELL -L )
1 unit bet pays 20 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-134, -39.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Orioles are just a different team at home, however. They have won 44 of their last 61 in Baltimore, and that is damn impressive.
New York Yankees are 3-9 in Pineda?s last 12 starts against the AL East....7-19 in their last 26 games against Toronto.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Pick: Blue Jays
Conventional wisdom said the trades of Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Beltran and Andrew Miller had the Yankees ?giving up? on the 2016 season and looking towards the future. However, New York has won nine of 14 since the non-waiver trade deadline and has tied a season high by going four games over .500 at 61-57, after last night?s 1-0 home win over the Blue Jays. The Yankees won despite going 2-for-18 with RISP and stranding 14 runners. The win left them 5 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East and New York is 4 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot in a very crowded field. The 67-52 Blue Jays are just percentage points back of the Orioles for the division?s top spot but along with the Red Sox, would qualify for a wild card berth if the season ended today.
Marco Estrada (7-5, 2.95 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto tonight in Yankees Stadium, up against New York?s Michael Pineda (6-10, 5.07 ERA). Pineda has not had a good season but has shown improvement lately, posting a 3.81 ERA over his last 13 starest (he?s 4-4 and the team is 9-4 ). He will face the Blue Jays for the 10th time in his career, entering with a 3.54 ERA in nine previous starts (he?s 2-3 and his teams are 4-5). Estrada is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA vs the Yankees in seven career starts (teams are 4-3) and comes in off plenty of rest (last pitched Tuesday, August 9).
Estrada allowed three runs on four hits in seven innings during an 8-4 win at New York on May 25 and on May 30, he allowed three hits in eight scoreless innings during a 4-2 home victory. Overall, in both starts, he held New York batters to a .140 average (7 of 40). Estrada last lost a road start back on April 16, going 4-0 with a 2.85 ERA in eight road outings, since. That?s good enough for me.
Duffy is 5-0, 2.32 in his last six starts; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Royals are 5-2 in his road starts.
Verlander is 4-0, 1.88 in his last six starts; his last eight stayed under. Detroit won seven of his last nine home starts.
Royals won seven of last nine games; under is 13-4 in their last 17. Detroit won eight of last 11 home games; six of last eight Detroit games stayed under.
Quintana is 4-0, 2.12 in his last seven starts; under is 18-3-1 in his last 22 starts. Chicago is 5-2 in his last seven road starts.
Kluber is 3-0, 2.14 in his last three starts; over is 7-3-1 in his last 11.
TWINS VS. BRAVES
PLAY: TWINS F5
One thing I?ve learned over the years is that Ervin Santana can be very streaky. That makes him prime fade material when he?s scuffling. But when Ervin is servin?, he?s a good follow, and right now Santana is on a roll. The Twins righty has been very strong recently, and was on his way to another win last week before the rains came at Target with Santana up 5-0. I expect him to pick up right where he left off as he takes on the Braves tonight.
Joel De La Cruz will be on the mound for Atlanta. De La Cruz looks like little more than rotation filler for the Braves. There?s nothing in DLC?s minor league resume to suggest he?s a keeper. Sinker, slider, change is the arsenal and De La Cruz is strictly pitch to contact with only acceptable command. He has not proven to be a particular mystery to big league hitters and I would be very surprisied if that changes anytime soon.
There?s a price to pay here as the Twins are clearly not in the road warrior class. But the Braves have been a horror show at home. Some of the models will show the ?value? here to be on the Braves. But my own formula is much more based on current form, which I absolutely believe to be a key when sizing up the starting pitching. I?ll look to ride Santana for at least one more start, and my play on this game is the Twins. But as my key is Santana vs. De La Cruz and the Minny pen is not exactly shutdown material, Twins F5 would be my first choice here.
Edwin Jackson, RHP-The journeyman righty has been a revelation for the Padres. He?s looked sharp in four of his five starts, twice carrying a no-no into the sixth, and his breaking pitches -- a slider and a curve -- have been devastating lately.
Snell is coming off his shortest MLB outing after pitching just 1 2/3 innings in a loss to the Jays Wednesday. Snell has electric stuff, but can lose focus and struggle with command. In his past six starts, he has issued 16 walks in 31 frames.
Chicago White Sox +164
The Chicago White Sox are worth a shot tonight as massive road underdogs to the Cleveland Indians. This is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate. Plus, the White Sox had Monday off, while the Indians played the Red Sox yesterday and lost.
Jose Quintana is perhaps the most underrated starter in baseball. He is 9-8 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 23 starts this season. Quintana has owned the Indians, going 5-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.
Corey Kluber has posted solid numbers as well this season, but not as good as Quintana. Kluber is 12-8 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 23 starts. He is also 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 13 career starts against the White Sox.
Kluber is an awful 22-28 (-19.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons. Kluber is 7-15 (-14.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last two seasons. Chicago is a very profitable 26-24 (+18.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last three seasons.
Dallas Keuchel has shaved a run off of his ugly 5.54 ERA over the past nine starts, with the only hiccup coming at Detroit, when the Tigers got him for 7 ER in five innings. He followed that with a shutout of Texas, which gave him a 3.13 ERA in those nine starts. The Detroit outing was the only one in which he didn't throw at least six innings.
Samardzija recorded his first win since July 8 in his last outing against the Marlins, one in which he didn?t allow a run in 5 2/3 innings. Most notably, Samardzija used 16 curveballs in that start, a pitch he stayed away from until recently.
In the Sights?
Don?t sleep on the Pirates. For as much of a disappointment as this season has been they are now only a game out of a Wild Card spot, and this is a group savvy enough to know that a current DL list that shows the Marlins without Stanton, Cardinals without Holliday/Adams/Diaz, and Mets without Cespedes/Cabrera, there is opportunity ahead. So with an offense that has perked up to the tune of 66 base-runners on the first four games of this road trip, a 3.5 -120 is more than a fair asking price for #963 Pittsburgh Team Total Over (10:15 Eastern). No, they have not been facing first-rate pitching, but they won?t be tonight either, and the confidence gained the last few days can carry over.
For the Pirates Andrew McCutchen needs to be the catalyst, and while this has been the worst season of his career, on this trip he already has five hits and drawn four walks, with five runs betted in. He and the others can continue that surge against the mediocrity that is Jeff Samardzija. How easy is Samardzija to define? He is at 360.2 innings over the last two seasons, and the numbers tell the tale ?
W/L ERA FIP xFIP SIERA
21-21 4.67 4.28 4.30 4.28
That?s all there is, a below-average grinder who will likely get worse instead of better as the 2016 innings pile up ? Samardzija is at career-lows in K/9 and SWS%, while his 13.3 HR/FB% matches a career-high.
N.Y. YANKEES -103 over Toronto
The media suggested that the Bombers waved the white flag at the deadline but we?ve been arguing the opposite ever since. What we see is a bunch of hungry and talented kids ready to step up and make a playoff push. The Yanks are only 4? games back of a Wild Card spot and they have a massive 25 games left against Toronto, Boston and Baltimore combined. If you watched Chad Green pitch last night, you have to like their chances. That 1-0 score was a flattering one to the Jays, as New York went 2 for18 with RISP while the Jays were swinging at everything and hitting nothing. Toronto?s offense continues to sputter. They are an all or nothing offense meaning that if they?re not going yard, they are not scoring runs. They strike out often (5th most K?s in MLB) and they?ll face another strikeout pitcher here in Michael Pineda
Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 5.07 ERA after 23 starts. Just like some pitchers are very lucky, others can get unlucky too for an extended period of time and that applies to Pineda. That his ERA is one of the highest among AL starters with 100 innings or more is ludicrous. Michael Pineda continues to be saddled with a trifecta of bad luck with a high 36% hit rate, low 65% strand rate and high 18% hr/f rate. Pineda has filthy stuff. He has 152 K?s in 131 frames with just 38 walks issued. He also has a 16% swing and miss rate, which is in Clayton Kershaw territory. Pineda also owns better skills with runners on base than any starter in MLB not named Kershaw with 10 K?s/9, 0.8 BB?s/9 and 45% groundballs. Again, he has been victimized by a crazy trifecta of terrible luck in that situation with a 38% hit rate and 11% (!) strand rate. With a 3.11 xERA, Pineda is the premier buy-low starting pitcher in baseball. He has Cy Young winner stuff, period but he?s priced like he?s C.C. Sabathia.
Then there?s Marco Estrada, who is the opposite of Pineda in that he has very average stuff with great results. Estrada is extremely unlikely to pitch anywhere close to his current 2.95 ERA over an extended period of time ever again and here?s why: 1) He?s constantly behind in the count with a 55% first-pitch strike rate. That first-pitch strike rate is at 46% over Estrada?s last six starts. 2) His 87 MPH fastball is one of the lowest in velocity in MLB. 3) Estrada also has an ugly groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 34%/25%/41%. 4) Estrada?s low 23% hit rate and high strand percentage of 78% (90% over his last five starts) has been doing the heavy lifting for this stiff for the past two years. Having balls hit to the warning track is not a skill. Having balls scorched off the bat and hit right at people is not a skill either. Estrada?s skill is that he puts good spin on the ball and batters pop it up. That does happen but not enough to make him elite. At the end of the day, what we have in Marco Estrada is a pitcher that is constantly behind in the count, that is constantly getting hit hard (but those balls are being hit right at folks), and that has a very hittable fastball. His xERA of 5.91 tells the real story of a pitcher that is riding a wave of extreme good fortune and has been doing so for almost two full years, which is not unheard of (see Jered Weaver, Kyle Lohse, James Shields, Doyle Alexander, Bartolo Colon, Barry Zito, Dan Haren, Jordan Zimmermann, Colby Lewis, Mark Buehrle and others). Eventually the weak skills that all these pitchers share will catch up to them and Marco Estrada is next up. We get the better starter by a wide margin, the better bullpen by a wide margin, the better offense and the team in better form AND they?re a dog at home. Pencil us in for that.
Boston -111 over BALTIMORE
This line is just plain stupid. Eduardo Rodriguez evenly priced against Yovani Gallardo is a wager that must be made because Gallardo should not even be in the majors. The only reason that Gallardo is not counting heads on the bus from the hotel to the park is because the Orioles are paying him 8M per. Gallardo?s continuing decreasing velocity is down to 88 MPH. His swing and miss rate is down to 7%. His walk rate continues to climb and he now has 41 walks issued in 78 frames while whiffing just 57. His fly-ball rate is increasing too. With Camden Yards enhancing LH HR by 37%, that's only asking for trouble. Gallardo comes in with a 1.60 WHIP and a 5.38 xERA. All of his skills and underlying numbers are in free-fall mode. A profile like this is prone to fall off the cliff and when you're an ?old? 30 years old with past injuries and seven straight years of 180 + innings, there's no guarantee that even a parachute will provide a soft landing.
Pitching mismatches often have the favorite at -160 or even higher but this pitching mismatch is evenly priced. Forget Eduardo Rodriguez?s 5.38 ERA because he was late to the show this year and has started just 12 games this season. Last year, Rodriguez went 10-6 with a 3.85/3.65 ERA/xERA split in 122 innings for the Red Sox. It was a nice taste at the time for this talented rookie. Rodriguez maintained decent command all year and mid-90s velocity throughout. He finished with four dominant starts in a row to end the year and he?s now rounding into that same form. Over his last 35 frames, Rodriguez has whiffed 32 batters with the support of an elite 14% swing and miss rate. In his last start, Rodriguez went seven full against the Yanks and allowed just three hits and one run. We?re buying his futures now at a low price and you should too.
08:40 PM [960] COL ROCKIES +113 ( G GONZALEZ -L / C BETTIS -R )
07:10 PM [970] TOTAL u7-105 (KC ROYALS vrs DET TIGERS) (DUFFY/VERLANDER)
08:05 PM [974] TEX RANGERS -138 ( A TRIGGS -R / L HARRELL -R )
07:10 PM [980] TB RAYS -200 ( E JACKSON -R / B SNELL -L )
1 unit bet pays 20 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-134, -39.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Orioles are just a different team at home, however. They have won 44 of their last 61 in Baltimore, and that is damn impressive.
New York Yankees are 3-9 in Pineda?s last 12 starts against the AL East....7-19 in their last 26 games against Toronto.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Pick: Blue Jays
Conventional wisdom said the trades of Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Beltran and Andrew Miller had the Yankees ?giving up? on the 2016 season and looking towards the future. However, New York has won nine of 14 since the non-waiver trade deadline and has tied a season high by going four games over .500 at 61-57, after last night?s 1-0 home win over the Blue Jays. The Yankees won despite going 2-for-18 with RISP and stranding 14 runners. The win left them 5 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East and New York is 4 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot in a very crowded field. The 67-52 Blue Jays are just percentage points back of the Orioles for the division?s top spot but along with the Red Sox, would qualify for a wild card berth if the season ended today.
Marco Estrada (7-5, 2.95 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto tonight in Yankees Stadium, up against New York?s Michael Pineda (6-10, 5.07 ERA). Pineda has not had a good season but has shown improvement lately, posting a 3.81 ERA over his last 13 starest (he?s 4-4 and the team is 9-4 ). He will face the Blue Jays for the 10th time in his career, entering with a 3.54 ERA in nine previous starts (he?s 2-3 and his teams are 4-5). Estrada is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA vs the Yankees in seven career starts (teams are 4-3) and comes in off plenty of rest (last pitched Tuesday, August 9).
Estrada allowed three runs on four hits in seven innings during an 8-4 win at New York on May 25 and on May 30, he allowed three hits in eight scoreless innings during a 4-2 home victory. Overall, in both starts, he held New York batters to a .140 average (7 of 40). Estrada last lost a road start back on April 16, going 4-0 with a 2.85 ERA in eight road outings, since. That?s good enough for me.
Duffy is 5-0, 2.32 in his last six starts; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Royals are 5-2 in his road starts.
Verlander is 4-0, 1.88 in his last six starts; his last eight stayed under. Detroit won seven of his last nine home starts.
Royals won seven of last nine games; under is 13-4 in their last 17. Detroit won eight of last 11 home games; six of last eight Detroit games stayed under.
Quintana is 4-0, 2.12 in his last seven starts; under is 18-3-1 in his last 22 starts. Chicago is 5-2 in his last seven road starts.
Kluber is 3-0, 2.14 in his last three starts; over is 7-3-1 in his last 11.
TWINS VS. BRAVES
PLAY: TWINS F5
One thing I?ve learned over the years is that Ervin Santana can be very streaky. That makes him prime fade material when he?s scuffling. But when Ervin is servin?, he?s a good follow, and right now Santana is on a roll. The Twins righty has been very strong recently, and was on his way to another win last week before the rains came at Target with Santana up 5-0. I expect him to pick up right where he left off as he takes on the Braves tonight.
Joel De La Cruz will be on the mound for Atlanta. De La Cruz looks like little more than rotation filler for the Braves. There?s nothing in DLC?s minor league resume to suggest he?s a keeper. Sinker, slider, change is the arsenal and De La Cruz is strictly pitch to contact with only acceptable command. He has not proven to be a particular mystery to big league hitters and I would be very surprisied if that changes anytime soon.
There?s a price to pay here as the Twins are clearly not in the road warrior class. But the Braves have been a horror show at home. Some of the models will show the ?value? here to be on the Braves. But my own formula is much more based on current form, which I absolutely believe to be a key when sizing up the starting pitching. I?ll look to ride Santana for at least one more start, and my play on this game is the Twins. But as my key is Santana vs. De La Cruz and the Minny pen is not exactly shutdown material, Twins F5 would be my first choice here.
Edwin Jackson, RHP-The journeyman righty has been a revelation for the Padres. He?s looked sharp in four of his five starts, twice carrying a no-no into the sixth, and his breaking pitches -- a slider and a curve -- have been devastating lately.
Snell is coming off his shortest MLB outing after pitching just 1 2/3 innings in a loss to the Jays Wednesday. Snell has electric stuff, but can lose focus and struggle with command. In his past six starts, he has issued 16 walks in 31 frames.
Chicago White Sox +164
The Chicago White Sox are worth a shot tonight as massive road underdogs to the Cleveland Indians. This is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate. Plus, the White Sox had Monday off, while the Indians played the Red Sox yesterday and lost.
Jose Quintana is perhaps the most underrated starter in baseball. He is 9-8 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 23 starts this season. Quintana has owned the Indians, going 5-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.
Corey Kluber has posted solid numbers as well this season, but not as good as Quintana. Kluber is 12-8 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 23 starts. He is also 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 13 career starts against the White Sox.
Kluber is an awful 22-28 (-19.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons. Kluber is 7-15 (-14.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last two seasons. Chicago is a very profitable 26-24 (+18.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last three seasons.
Dallas Keuchel has shaved a run off of his ugly 5.54 ERA over the past nine starts, with the only hiccup coming at Detroit, when the Tigers got him for 7 ER in five innings. He followed that with a shutout of Texas, which gave him a 3.13 ERA in those nine starts. The Detroit outing was the only one in which he didn't throw at least six innings.
Samardzija recorded his first win since July 8 in his last outing against the Marlins, one in which he didn?t allow a run in 5 2/3 innings. Most notably, Samardzija used 16 curveballs in that start, a pitch he stayed away from until recently.
In the Sights?
Don?t sleep on the Pirates. For as much of a disappointment as this season has been they are now only a game out of a Wild Card spot, and this is a group savvy enough to know that a current DL list that shows the Marlins without Stanton, Cardinals without Holliday/Adams/Diaz, and Mets without Cespedes/Cabrera, there is opportunity ahead. So with an offense that has perked up to the tune of 66 base-runners on the first four games of this road trip, a 3.5 -120 is more than a fair asking price for #963 Pittsburgh Team Total Over (10:15 Eastern). No, they have not been facing first-rate pitching, but they won?t be tonight either, and the confidence gained the last few days can carry over.
For the Pirates Andrew McCutchen needs to be the catalyst, and while this has been the worst season of his career, on this trip he already has five hits and drawn four walks, with five runs betted in. He and the others can continue that surge against the mediocrity that is Jeff Samardzija. How easy is Samardzija to define? He is at 360.2 innings over the last two seasons, and the numbers tell the tale ?
W/L ERA FIP xFIP SIERA
21-21 4.67 4.28 4.30 4.28
That?s all there is, a below-average grinder who will likely get worse instead of better as the 2016 innings pile up ? Samardzija is at career-lows in K/9 and SWS%, while his 13.3 HR/FB% matches a career-high.
N.Y. YANKEES -103 over Toronto
The media suggested that the Bombers waved the white flag at the deadline but we?ve been arguing the opposite ever since. What we see is a bunch of hungry and talented kids ready to step up and make a playoff push. The Yanks are only 4? games back of a Wild Card spot and they have a massive 25 games left against Toronto, Boston and Baltimore combined. If you watched Chad Green pitch last night, you have to like their chances. That 1-0 score was a flattering one to the Jays, as New York went 2 for18 with RISP while the Jays were swinging at everything and hitting nothing. Toronto?s offense continues to sputter. They are an all or nothing offense meaning that if they?re not going yard, they are not scoring runs. They strike out often (5th most K?s in MLB) and they?ll face another strikeout pitcher here in Michael Pineda
Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 5.07 ERA after 23 starts. Just like some pitchers are very lucky, others can get unlucky too for an extended period of time and that applies to Pineda. That his ERA is one of the highest among AL starters with 100 innings or more is ludicrous. Michael Pineda continues to be saddled with a trifecta of bad luck with a high 36% hit rate, low 65% strand rate and high 18% hr/f rate. Pineda has filthy stuff. He has 152 K?s in 131 frames with just 38 walks issued. He also has a 16% swing and miss rate, which is in Clayton Kershaw territory. Pineda also owns better skills with runners on base than any starter in MLB not named Kershaw with 10 K?s/9, 0.8 BB?s/9 and 45% groundballs. Again, he has been victimized by a crazy trifecta of terrible luck in that situation with a 38% hit rate and 11% (!) strand rate. With a 3.11 xERA, Pineda is the premier buy-low starting pitcher in baseball. He has Cy Young winner stuff, period but he?s priced like he?s C.C. Sabathia.
Then there?s Marco Estrada, who is the opposite of Pineda in that he has very average stuff with great results. Estrada is extremely unlikely to pitch anywhere close to his current 2.95 ERA over an extended period of time ever again and here?s why: 1) He?s constantly behind in the count with a 55% first-pitch strike rate. That first-pitch strike rate is at 46% over Estrada?s last six starts. 2) His 87 MPH fastball is one of the lowest in velocity in MLB. 3) Estrada also has an ugly groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 34%/25%/41%. 4) Estrada?s low 23% hit rate and high strand percentage of 78% (90% over his last five starts) has been doing the heavy lifting for this stiff for the past two years. Having balls hit to the warning track is not a skill. Having balls scorched off the bat and hit right at people is not a skill either. Estrada?s skill is that he puts good spin on the ball and batters pop it up. That does happen but not enough to make him elite. At the end of the day, what we have in Marco Estrada is a pitcher that is constantly behind in the count, that is constantly getting hit hard (but those balls are being hit right at folks), and that has a very hittable fastball. His xERA of 5.91 tells the real story of a pitcher that is riding a wave of extreme good fortune and has been doing so for almost two full years, which is not unheard of (see Jered Weaver, Kyle Lohse, James Shields, Doyle Alexander, Bartolo Colon, Barry Zito, Dan Haren, Jordan Zimmermann, Colby Lewis, Mark Buehrle and others). Eventually the weak skills that all these pitchers share will catch up to them and Marco Estrada is next up. We get the better starter by a wide margin, the better bullpen by a wide margin, the better offense and the team in better form AND they?re a dog at home. Pencil us in for that.
Boston -111 over BALTIMORE
This line is just plain stupid. Eduardo Rodriguez evenly priced against Yovani Gallardo is a wager that must be made because Gallardo should not even be in the majors. The only reason that Gallardo is not counting heads on the bus from the hotel to the park is because the Orioles are paying him 8M per. Gallardo?s continuing decreasing velocity is down to 88 MPH. His swing and miss rate is down to 7%. His walk rate continues to climb and he now has 41 walks issued in 78 frames while whiffing just 57. His fly-ball rate is increasing too. With Camden Yards enhancing LH HR by 37%, that's only asking for trouble. Gallardo comes in with a 1.60 WHIP and a 5.38 xERA. All of his skills and underlying numbers are in free-fall mode. A profile like this is prone to fall off the cliff and when you're an ?old? 30 years old with past injuries and seven straight years of 180 + innings, there's no guarantee that even a parachute will provide a soft landing.
Pitching mismatches often have the favorite at -160 or even higher but this pitching mismatch is evenly priced. Forget Eduardo Rodriguez?s 5.38 ERA because he was late to the show this year and has started just 12 games this season. Last year, Rodriguez went 10-6 with a 3.85/3.65 ERA/xERA split in 122 innings for the Red Sox. It was a nice taste at the time for this talented rookie. Rodriguez maintained decent command all year and mid-90s velocity throughout. He finished with four dominant starts in a row to end the year and he?s now rounding into that same form. Over his last 35 frames, Rodriguez has whiffed 32 batters with the support of an elite 14% swing and miss rate. In his last start, Rodriguez went seven full against the Yanks and allowed just three hits and one run. We?re buying his futures now at a low price and you should too.
