07:05 PM MLB [951] Washington Nationals -1.5 -125 (Scherzer/Eickhoff)
07:10 PM MLB [955] San Diego Padres +143 ( E Jackson - R / J Teheran - R )
07:05 PM MLB [965] Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +110 ( J Happ - L / U Jimenez - R )
07:10 PM MLB [971] TOTAL o9.5 -115 (Minnesota Twins vrs Cleveland Indians) (Albers/Tomlin)
08:05 PM MLB [974] TOTAL u9-110 (Seattle Mariners vrs Texas Rangers) (Paxton/Hamels)
08:10 PM MLB [975] Oakland Athletics +155 ( K Graveman - R / C McHugh - R )
10:05 PM MLB [980] Los Angeles Angels -132 ( T Adleman - R / J Weaver - R )
1 unit bet pays 145 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-144, -32.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 10-3 in TOR last 13 road games.
Under is 15-4 in BAL last 19 home games.
Over is 4-1-1 in Happ?s last 6 road starts.
Over is 10-3 in Jimenez?s last 13 starts overall.
Eickhoff allowed four hits, two runs and struck out two in six innings last week against the White Sox. He got pulled despite throwing just 71 pitches because the Phillies are monitoring his workload as the season nears its end.
Jerad Eickhoff has found his way into pocket often this season, a guy pitching well without much of a pedigree, which has had the markets a bit slow to accept him. I am growing a bit cautious now, however - he begins the night at 155.2 innings, and flags go up for me when a pitcher of his grade break 150. I will be watching his stamina to see how long he can keep it going, but his last 4 starts have brought single-game FIP counts of 5.81, 7.74, 5.81 and 4.65, so I will be cautious with him from here on out. Just not quite enough value for me to pull the trigger this evening.
The Tigers are in the midst of a playoff push, but are turning to starters who have only seven starts on the year. That?s the case with Norris, although he has pitched well enough when he has pitched. His ERA is actually pretty good at 3.61, but the other analytics are a little scary. His WHIP is 1.59 and the league batting average against is over .300. He?s given up 44 hits in just over 34 innings. It?s actually quite surprising he?s kept his ERA as low as it is.
Andrew Albers will be making his third appearance of the year, and his first start. He?s allowed four earned runs in the 8.1 innings he has appeared, but he?s given up a very high 12 hits. He?s only given up one walk, which bodes well. To be honest, it?s hard to find stats that will determine how good this guy is or can be. We just don?t know...Aug 13 - Albers, 30, helped save Minnesota's bullpen in the second game of Thursday's split doubleheader against the Astros, as he tossed six innings, allowing five runs (three earned) on 11 hits and a walk. It was his first Major League appearance since May 1, 2015, while with the Blue Jays...
After opening the year 9-1 with a 3.21 ERA, Tomlin has gone 2-7 with a 7.51 ERA...0-5 with a 10.80 ERA in August..."We're going to pitch him," Francona said. "There's a chance at some point we rest him. We might do it with everybody. Who knows? But, it's kind of like [setup man Bryan] Shaw. You don't just run away from guys when they're having a tough time. He's got 11 wins. He's had a tough stretch here, but I don't think you run away from guys like that."
Minnesota @ CLEVELAND
Perhaps the Indians go out today and clobber the Twins. Perhaps Andrew Albers gets knocked out in early and Josh Tomlin throws a gem. That is quite possible but just like last night when two stiffs (Bauer v Santiago) combined to shut out two good offenses, one really never knows what is going to take place on the diamond. What we do know is that Josh Tomlin cannot be priced like he?s Carlos Carrasco because he?s not. Tomlin has an unsightly 17%/26% dominant start/disaster start split this year. Control specialist Tomlin continues to show very average skills with a 4.49 xERA. Tomlin has struggled with the HR ball throughout his career, which adds to the risk of spotting a big number. Tomlin does not miss a ton of bats so like many of his ilk, he relies on command and the slings and arrows of where balls land fortune (and infield defense). Tomlin is so not worthy of this tag.
Meanwhile, Andrew Albers has been toiling between the minors and majors over the past six to eight years. Albers' first professional season was in 2008 with the Padres, where he started just five games before suffering an injury that would lead to Tommy John surgery. As a result, he missed all of 2009. After playing independent ball in 2010, the Twins signed Albers to a minor-league contract. Albers is the prototypical Minnesota control and finesse pitcher. He can eat up innings and pitch efficiently deep into the game. Albers throws strikes with precision command and induces weak contact and lots of groundball outs. He also gets a surprising number of strike outs considering the lack of overpowering stuff. His best pitch is an 87-91 mph sinker followed by a decent slider and improving change-up. Albers has to rely on pitch mix and pinpoint control to keep hitters off balance, but he has learned to do it very effectively. Hmmmmm, come to think of it, Albers? story mirrors Josh Tomlin?s. These two are near identical in skills and approach but the difference is Tomlin is better known and is laying a massive number. We?ll take back a huge price and take our chances, thank you very much.
Teheran says he's healthy, but he has not been sharp in the two starts made since returning from a right lat strain. His velo moved closer to normal his last time out, but his slider and curveball lacked the bite they had earlier this year
Coldest pitcher: Julio Teheran, Braves (3-9, 3.15 ERA)
Atlanta returns home from a 3-4 West Coast swing to host San Diego tonight. Teheran is winless in his last two starts since coming off the disabled list, including allowing six earned runs and 11 hits in six innings of a 10-9 defeat at Arizona. The right-hander hasn?t had much luck at Turner Field at this season, as the Braves own a dreadful 1-12 record in his 13 home starts. The Braves are 1-6 in his seven starts as a home favorite, but Teheran beat the Padres as a road underdog in June by tossing eight innings in a 4-2 triumph.
San Diego @ ATLANTA
The Padres continue to pay off but the data shows that they are the least bet team in the majors. That data means the oddsmakers are forced to offer the chalk against San Diego at inflated prices, which is certainly the case here with the Braves. The Padres are a pesky and feisty bunch that just took two of three in Miami and that also has 12 wins in their past 25 games. In other words, they?re winning almost as much as they?re losing these days. They?ll now face a Braves team that knows a thing or two about losing ball games and that should never be priced in this range.
Edwin Jackson goes for the Padres so we?ll plug our nose and hope for the best. Jackson had given up seven runs in 11 IP as a reliever prior to being released by Miami at the end of May, after which he was signed to a minor league contract by the Padres in mid-June. The departure of Drew Pomeranz allowed Jackson to step into a starting role. He coughed up 10 earned runs over 13 innings in three Triple-A starts before getting this assignment. Surprisingly, Jackson has four quality starts in seven tries. He?s only being asked to eat some innings on a rebuilding team so he?s playing with house money right now. Any major league pitcher can throw a good game against Atlanta?s weak offense and Jackson is no different. This wager, however, is not about backing Jackson but more about fading Julio Teheran and Atlanta at this price.
Teheran has been back for three starts after being DL'd for a little more than two weeks. So far in 2016, he has an ERA of 3.15, but an xERA of 3.82. Here?s where it gets interesting. Teheran's been an ace against right-handed batters, but a disaster against left-handed batters, which is key here because the Padres will send as many as six left-handed batters to the plate. It would be well worth your time to check out the opposition's lineup in deciding whether to bet Teheran or fade him. We?ve done that for you. Incidentally, Teheran is 0-5 at home and the Braves return from a seven-game trip through Arizona and San Fran.
Pittsburgh Pirates are under is 14-5-1 in their last 20 road games against a right handed starter.
The Chicago Cubs are under is 18-6 in their last 24 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 16-5 in OAK last 21 overall.
Oakland @ HOUSTON
The A?s hosted Cleveland last week and lost the first game of that series before winning the final two. This past weekend, Oakland went into St. Louis and lost the first game of that series as well before winning the final two. Oakland went into Houston last night and lost the first game of that series???
Graveman?s 3.97 ERA and the team he pitches for is enough to scare off most bettors. His 87 K?s in 150 innings suggest there?s little to see here. Yawn. Move on, right? Well, maybe. Kendall Graveman could be a surprising source of profit down the stretch. Graveman?s control has always been good and now he trusts his stuff even more. He?s down to 2.2 BB?s/9 with an elite 71% first-pitch strike rate. Where Graveman sets himself apart is in the ground game. Among starters who?ve thrown at least 110 innings, his 52.9% ground ball rate sits 19th in the league and while the groundball rate on most of his pitches have decreased this season, his cutter, which he?s throwing more often, is inducing them 62% of the time.Graveman?s velocity is also up across the board. His swinging strike rate has jumped two points, buoyed by increased velocity across all pitches and more movement on his sinker, cutter, and change. And while the league-wide chase rate is at its lowest since 2009, Graveman?s is up. So along with throwing his ground ball-inducing cutter more often, he?s also upped the usage of his whiff-inducing slider, leading to more ground balls and more strikeouts.Graveman?s 5.2 K?s/9 won?t turn any heads but when he gets two strikes on batters, which is often, he?s inducing a plethora of groundouts. At this price, he?s worth a wager here against Collin McHugh.
McHugh is a rags-to-riches story. Formerly Colorado?s waiver fodder and New York Mets farm-hand, Houston picked up McHugh, owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level at that time, in December of 2014 and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he pitched like an ace in two subsequent years since then. This year, however, is a bit different. He comes into this start with 5.01 ERA this year with 12 pure quality starts in 26 tries. Over his last five starts, McHugh?s ERA was 6.15 with a 1.63 WHIP. Look, McHugh has been somewhat unfortunate this year. He has an excellent BB/K split of 40/141 in 142 innings. However, his struggles are not new and his weak 38%/30%/32% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one that suggests fatigue may be settling in. McHugh?s 204 frames last year was the most he has ever pitched in one year and he?s already up to 142 innings this year. Bad outings also play on one?s mind. At the end of the day, the Astronauts can obviously win here but there is a big premium to pay on them to find out. The A?s can win too.
St. Louis @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE +141 over St. Louis
Wily Peralta is a young, 27-year-old ground-baller that spent June and July of last year on the DL with a left oblique injury. His skills showed he wasn't the same guy upon his return. Peralta?s fastball velocity dip prompted a K-rate/swing and miss rate slide, while his shaky first-pitch strike rate culminated in a sharp 2H control fall-off. It was his first major injury in quite some time. This year, Peralta spent the first two months in the Brewers rotation before being sent down for two months from June 11th until August 9th. Since then, Peralta has been better and he appears to be getting his strength back. Peralta?s velocity is back up to 95 MPH. His swinging strike rate in his last start was 11% and his first-pitch strike rate was 71%. He recently went three straight starts of six full innings before his last start in which he labored through five innings but still only surrendered two runs. His groundball rate is elite at 51%. Peralta is returning to the form that saw him post outstanding numbers from 2012 to 2014. He?s not there yet but he?s damn close and it could come quickly. Invest now.
After missing nearly all of last season with an Achilles injury, Wainwright got off to an awful start in 2016, putting up a 6.80 ERA over his first eight starts. He?s made 18 more starts since then to take his number of starts this season to 26. That?s 156 innings thus far and Wainwright appears to be running on fumes. He?s walked 12 batters over his past 24 frames while striking out 19. That?s a really weak ratio. His velocity is down to an average of 89.9 MPH and his swinging strike rate has dropped from 10% overall to 6% over his last five starts. Wainwright has one quality start over his last six tries. Over that span, he posted a 7.71 ERA/6.86 xERA split and a 1.92 WHIP. He?s now favored like he?s strong and pitching well when he is in fact, weak and pitching poorly. Huge overlay here.
Reds vs. Angels
Play: Over 9
The Los Angeles Angels hammered the Cincinnati Reds in 9-2 victory on Monday. I think we'll see another high-scoring game as the three-game series continues tonight.
Tim Adleman (2-1, 3.68 ERA) takes the ball for the Reds. The 28 year old rookie was tagged with five runs (four earned) on five hits with three homers in five innings of a 6-5 loss at Texas his last start. He's pitched more than five innings in just one of his six major leagues start so I think it's a fair assumption he'll leave the game early only to hand over the ball to the worst bullpen in baseball.
The Halos turn to veteran right-hander Jered Weaver (9-11, 5.31 ERA). He held the Jays to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 win his last time out but had surrendered four earned runs or more in each of his previous three starts. Cincy has nothing to play for but pride, but the team has not stopped trying and the Reds have swung their bats alright in recent games.
Over is 4-1-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings and 8-2 in the Reds' last 10 games following a loss.
What has been troubling about the Reds the last two games, and forces us to adjust our ratings, is that they have shown one of the ugly "tells" that show up when a bad team is on the road this late in the season. One of the items that had been pushed as a "plus" for them, their solid offensive showing across the MLB metrics since the All Star break, disappeared through a lack of patience. In 65 plate appearances the last two games they have only drawn one walk, and note that that means against Archie Bradley, who has been among MLB's worst in BB/9 this season - it was the first time in his career that he did not walk a batter (I do not count a start vs. the Rockies last year when he left after only facing 6 batters).
One of the notions I do believe is that hitters go hard to the final pitch of the season, because there is contract money on the line in every at-bat. But that can often mean being too aggressive and lacking patience, because you earn more with contact than you do by drawing walks. The lack of patience shown the last two days by the Cincinnati hitters does bother me a bit.
Los Angeles @ COLORADO
COLORADO +110 over Los Angeles
Rich Hill has thrown a mere 111 innings over the past two seasons split between Boston last year and the A?s and Dodgers this year. Oh, to be a lefty and blessed with infinite opportunities. After years of chronically terrible control, Hill changed his arm slot last summer and actually found something (great command and a double-digit K-rate vL and vR). It would be very easy to call it a blip but it's just enough to hold our attention for now but not as a road favorite in Colorado. Hill?s swing and miss rate in his last start was 6% (3 K?s in 6 IP) and that came after he missed some starts with a blister. That strongly suggests his grip has been altered. He?s still a pitcher that throws just 89 MPH. While we are not going to take anything away from the success Hill has had, this venue could not care less. There has never been a pitcher unaffected by the park factors here and that alone makes Hill a risky investment spotting a price. The Rockies are winning a high percentage of their home games these days, which includes the opener last night (8-1) against Rookie-of-the Year favorite, Kenta Maeta.
Tyler Anderson is also a lefty and is very used to pitching at Coors. Colorado?s pitchers know not to panic when trouble sets in or when they allow some runs because it is just part of dealing with pitching half your games at Coors. Aside from that, Anderson has been outstanding at home with the underlying support of a strong collection of skills: 8.2 K?s/9, 2.3 BB?s/9 and 53% groundballs. The Rockies have won six of Anderson?s nine starts at Coors, which includes a 12-2 beat down of these Dodgers back in early August. Los Angeles is not in better form than the Rocks are right now and again, Rich Hill?s recurring blister problem may have forced him to change his grip on the ball because his K-rate last game was WAY down. We?ll see how that plays out but we trust we?re going with the best of it here.
The Giants are 19-7 when Cueto starts, though they have lost five of his last eight outings
Over is 16-5 in ARI last 21 games following a win.
Over is 36-14-1 in ARI last 51 overall.
In the Sights, NCAA Friday?
I don?t believe the markets are taking the right direction on a college game for Friday night, and with the Total having dropped from 50 to 47.5 there is an edge emerging to #152 Stanford/Kansas State Over (9:00 Eastern), with 49 the value point. This one works from three directions, including both QB positions, so let?s start with them.
Jesse Ertz has a chance to be a major upgrade for the Wildcats, who were significantly under-manned at QB in 2015, after Ertz was was injured early in the opening game. Replacement Joe Hubener completed only 46.7 percent of his passes, with more interceptions than TDs, so having a plus player at the position means a substantial paradigm change for the offenese. Ertz brings the tools to be that, and the way that his own teammates have been talking about him speaks volumes. From center Dalton Risner ? ?The sky is the limit for Jesse. People may not realize it, but the guy is such a great athlete. We go to the pool, and he is the fastest swimmer. We go to the basketball court, and no one can guard him. He never loses at video games. He is a born winner, and I can?t wait for him to prove it on the football field.? Aiding the assimilation for Ertz is that JucCo transfer WR Byron Pringle has been living up to his billing in practice, and provides a needed weapon down the field.
Then there is the Stanford QB situation, where it has been a long time since someone other than Kevin Hogan or Andrew Luck was the starter at QB. It might sound like a daunting task for Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst to step in (Burns will start but I expect both to play), but it isn?t. Despite starting throughout his career Hogan was mostly a game manager, and did not bring any particular upside to the position. Burns and Chryst naturally lack his experience, but may bring more ability.
Making it easy for those QBs is the presence of Christian McCaffrey, of course, and he provides the third key here. David Shaw felt that his star RB deserved the Heisman last year but it was the usual problem ? McCaffrey won the west coast voters but not the rest of the nation, many of those voters not seeing his games. Now there is a prime-time national television setting for Shaw to showcase his player, and that could mean a little different flow than usual in the fourth quarter ? should Stanford have command, which the oddsmakers and betting markets logically project, there is an expectation that McCaffrey could be on the field for a drive or two more than usual, in part to take advantage of the showcase, and also because the Cardinal does not play for 15 days after this, so there is no particular reason to hold anything back.
Some coaches use an early game to get as many players on the field as possible, and develop depth for later. That will not be Shaw?s way ? Stanford?s immediate aftermath is a home game with USC, then trips to UCLA and Washington, one of the toughest opening draws of any team, so his task is to have his best players as ready to go a full 60 minutes as possible.
07:10 PM MLB [955] San Diego Padres +143 ( E Jackson - R / J Teheran - R )
07:05 PM MLB [965] Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +110 ( J Happ - L / U Jimenez - R )
07:10 PM MLB [971] TOTAL o9.5 -115 (Minnesota Twins vrs Cleveland Indians) (Albers/Tomlin)
08:05 PM MLB [974] TOTAL u9-110 (Seattle Mariners vrs Texas Rangers) (Paxton/Hamels)
08:10 PM MLB [975] Oakland Athletics +155 ( K Graveman - R / C McHugh - R )
10:05 PM MLB [980] Los Angeles Angels -132 ( T Adleman - R / J Weaver - R )
1 unit bet pays 145 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-144, -32.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 10-3 in TOR last 13 road games.
Under is 15-4 in BAL last 19 home games.
Over is 4-1-1 in Happ?s last 6 road starts.
Over is 10-3 in Jimenez?s last 13 starts overall.
Eickhoff allowed four hits, two runs and struck out two in six innings last week against the White Sox. He got pulled despite throwing just 71 pitches because the Phillies are monitoring his workload as the season nears its end.
Jerad Eickhoff has found his way into pocket often this season, a guy pitching well without much of a pedigree, which has had the markets a bit slow to accept him. I am growing a bit cautious now, however - he begins the night at 155.2 innings, and flags go up for me when a pitcher of his grade break 150. I will be watching his stamina to see how long he can keep it going, but his last 4 starts have brought single-game FIP counts of 5.81, 7.74, 5.81 and 4.65, so I will be cautious with him from here on out. Just not quite enough value for me to pull the trigger this evening.
The Tigers are in the midst of a playoff push, but are turning to starters who have only seven starts on the year. That?s the case with Norris, although he has pitched well enough when he has pitched. His ERA is actually pretty good at 3.61, but the other analytics are a little scary. His WHIP is 1.59 and the league batting average against is over .300. He?s given up 44 hits in just over 34 innings. It?s actually quite surprising he?s kept his ERA as low as it is.
Andrew Albers will be making his third appearance of the year, and his first start. He?s allowed four earned runs in the 8.1 innings he has appeared, but he?s given up a very high 12 hits. He?s only given up one walk, which bodes well. To be honest, it?s hard to find stats that will determine how good this guy is or can be. We just don?t know...Aug 13 - Albers, 30, helped save Minnesota's bullpen in the second game of Thursday's split doubleheader against the Astros, as he tossed six innings, allowing five runs (three earned) on 11 hits and a walk. It was his first Major League appearance since May 1, 2015, while with the Blue Jays...
After opening the year 9-1 with a 3.21 ERA, Tomlin has gone 2-7 with a 7.51 ERA...0-5 with a 10.80 ERA in August..."We're going to pitch him," Francona said. "There's a chance at some point we rest him. We might do it with everybody. Who knows? But, it's kind of like [setup man Bryan] Shaw. You don't just run away from guys when they're having a tough time. He's got 11 wins. He's had a tough stretch here, but I don't think you run away from guys like that."
Minnesota @ CLEVELAND
Perhaps the Indians go out today and clobber the Twins. Perhaps Andrew Albers gets knocked out in early and Josh Tomlin throws a gem. That is quite possible but just like last night when two stiffs (Bauer v Santiago) combined to shut out two good offenses, one really never knows what is going to take place on the diamond. What we do know is that Josh Tomlin cannot be priced like he?s Carlos Carrasco because he?s not. Tomlin has an unsightly 17%/26% dominant start/disaster start split this year. Control specialist Tomlin continues to show very average skills with a 4.49 xERA. Tomlin has struggled with the HR ball throughout his career, which adds to the risk of spotting a big number. Tomlin does not miss a ton of bats so like many of his ilk, he relies on command and the slings and arrows of where balls land fortune (and infield defense). Tomlin is so not worthy of this tag.
Meanwhile, Andrew Albers has been toiling between the minors and majors over the past six to eight years. Albers' first professional season was in 2008 with the Padres, where he started just five games before suffering an injury that would lead to Tommy John surgery. As a result, he missed all of 2009. After playing independent ball in 2010, the Twins signed Albers to a minor-league contract. Albers is the prototypical Minnesota control and finesse pitcher. He can eat up innings and pitch efficiently deep into the game. Albers throws strikes with precision command and induces weak contact and lots of groundball outs. He also gets a surprising number of strike outs considering the lack of overpowering stuff. His best pitch is an 87-91 mph sinker followed by a decent slider and improving change-up. Albers has to rely on pitch mix and pinpoint control to keep hitters off balance, but he has learned to do it very effectively. Hmmmmm, come to think of it, Albers? story mirrors Josh Tomlin?s. These two are near identical in skills and approach but the difference is Tomlin is better known and is laying a massive number. We?ll take back a huge price and take our chances, thank you very much.
Teheran says he's healthy, but he has not been sharp in the two starts made since returning from a right lat strain. His velo moved closer to normal his last time out, but his slider and curveball lacked the bite they had earlier this year
Coldest pitcher: Julio Teheran, Braves (3-9, 3.15 ERA)
Atlanta returns home from a 3-4 West Coast swing to host San Diego tonight. Teheran is winless in his last two starts since coming off the disabled list, including allowing six earned runs and 11 hits in six innings of a 10-9 defeat at Arizona. The right-hander hasn?t had much luck at Turner Field at this season, as the Braves own a dreadful 1-12 record in his 13 home starts. The Braves are 1-6 in his seven starts as a home favorite, but Teheran beat the Padres as a road underdog in June by tossing eight innings in a 4-2 triumph.
San Diego @ ATLANTA
The Padres continue to pay off but the data shows that they are the least bet team in the majors. That data means the oddsmakers are forced to offer the chalk against San Diego at inflated prices, which is certainly the case here with the Braves. The Padres are a pesky and feisty bunch that just took two of three in Miami and that also has 12 wins in their past 25 games. In other words, they?re winning almost as much as they?re losing these days. They?ll now face a Braves team that knows a thing or two about losing ball games and that should never be priced in this range.
Edwin Jackson goes for the Padres so we?ll plug our nose and hope for the best. Jackson had given up seven runs in 11 IP as a reliever prior to being released by Miami at the end of May, after which he was signed to a minor league contract by the Padres in mid-June. The departure of Drew Pomeranz allowed Jackson to step into a starting role. He coughed up 10 earned runs over 13 innings in three Triple-A starts before getting this assignment. Surprisingly, Jackson has four quality starts in seven tries. He?s only being asked to eat some innings on a rebuilding team so he?s playing with house money right now. Any major league pitcher can throw a good game against Atlanta?s weak offense and Jackson is no different. This wager, however, is not about backing Jackson but more about fading Julio Teheran and Atlanta at this price.
Teheran has been back for three starts after being DL'd for a little more than two weeks. So far in 2016, he has an ERA of 3.15, but an xERA of 3.82. Here?s where it gets interesting. Teheran's been an ace against right-handed batters, but a disaster against left-handed batters, which is key here because the Padres will send as many as six left-handed batters to the plate. It would be well worth your time to check out the opposition's lineup in deciding whether to bet Teheran or fade him. We?ve done that for you. Incidentally, Teheran is 0-5 at home and the Braves return from a seven-game trip through Arizona and San Fran.
Pittsburgh Pirates are under is 14-5-1 in their last 20 road games against a right handed starter.
The Chicago Cubs are under is 18-6 in their last 24 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 16-5 in OAK last 21 overall.
Oakland @ HOUSTON
The A?s hosted Cleveland last week and lost the first game of that series before winning the final two. This past weekend, Oakland went into St. Louis and lost the first game of that series as well before winning the final two. Oakland went into Houston last night and lost the first game of that series???
Graveman?s 3.97 ERA and the team he pitches for is enough to scare off most bettors. His 87 K?s in 150 innings suggest there?s little to see here. Yawn. Move on, right? Well, maybe. Kendall Graveman could be a surprising source of profit down the stretch. Graveman?s control has always been good and now he trusts his stuff even more. He?s down to 2.2 BB?s/9 with an elite 71% first-pitch strike rate. Where Graveman sets himself apart is in the ground game. Among starters who?ve thrown at least 110 innings, his 52.9% ground ball rate sits 19th in the league and while the groundball rate on most of his pitches have decreased this season, his cutter, which he?s throwing more often, is inducing them 62% of the time.Graveman?s velocity is also up across the board. His swinging strike rate has jumped two points, buoyed by increased velocity across all pitches and more movement on his sinker, cutter, and change. And while the league-wide chase rate is at its lowest since 2009, Graveman?s is up. So along with throwing his ground ball-inducing cutter more often, he?s also upped the usage of his whiff-inducing slider, leading to more ground balls and more strikeouts.Graveman?s 5.2 K?s/9 won?t turn any heads but when he gets two strikes on batters, which is often, he?s inducing a plethora of groundouts. At this price, he?s worth a wager here against Collin McHugh.
McHugh is a rags-to-riches story. Formerly Colorado?s waiver fodder and New York Mets farm-hand, Houston picked up McHugh, owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level at that time, in December of 2014 and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he pitched like an ace in two subsequent years since then. This year, however, is a bit different. He comes into this start with 5.01 ERA this year with 12 pure quality starts in 26 tries. Over his last five starts, McHugh?s ERA was 6.15 with a 1.63 WHIP. Look, McHugh has been somewhat unfortunate this year. He has an excellent BB/K split of 40/141 in 142 innings. However, his struggles are not new and his weak 38%/30%/32% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one that suggests fatigue may be settling in. McHugh?s 204 frames last year was the most he has ever pitched in one year and he?s already up to 142 innings this year. Bad outings also play on one?s mind. At the end of the day, the Astronauts can obviously win here but there is a big premium to pay on them to find out. The A?s can win too.
St. Louis @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE +141 over St. Louis
Wily Peralta is a young, 27-year-old ground-baller that spent June and July of last year on the DL with a left oblique injury. His skills showed he wasn't the same guy upon his return. Peralta?s fastball velocity dip prompted a K-rate/swing and miss rate slide, while his shaky first-pitch strike rate culminated in a sharp 2H control fall-off. It was his first major injury in quite some time. This year, Peralta spent the first two months in the Brewers rotation before being sent down for two months from June 11th until August 9th. Since then, Peralta has been better and he appears to be getting his strength back. Peralta?s velocity is back up to 95 MPH. His swinging strike rate in his last start was 11% and his first-pitch strike rate was 71%. He recently went three straight starts of six full innings before his last start in which he labored through five innings but still only surrendered two runs. His groundball rate is elite at 51%. Peralta is returning to the form that saw him post outstanding numbers from 2012 to 2014. He?s not there yet but he?s damn close and it could come quickly. Invest now.
After missing nearly all of last season with an Achilles injury, Wainwright got off to an awful start in 2016, putting up a 6.80 ERA over his first eight starts. He?s made 18 more starts since then to take his number of starts this season to 26. That?s 156 innings thus far and Wainwright appears to be running on fumes. He?s walked 12 batters over his past 24 frames while striking out 19. That?s a really weak ratio. His velocity is down to an average of 89.9 MPH and his swinging strike rate has dropped from 10% overall to 6% over his last five starts. Wainwright has one quality start over his last six tries. Over that span, he posted a 7.71 ERA/6.86 xERA split and a 1.92 WHIP. He?s now favored like he?s strong and pitching well when he is in fact, weak and pitching poorly. Huge overlay here.
Reds vs. Angels
Play: Over 9
The Los Angeles Angels hammered the Cincinnati Reds in 9-2 victory on Monday. I think we'll see another high-scoring game as the three-game series continues tonight.
Tim Adleman (2-1, 3.68 ERA) takes the ball for the Reds. The 28 year old rookie was tagged with five runs (four earned) on five hits with three homers in five innings of a 6-5 loss at Texas his last start. He's pitched more than five innings in just one of his six major leagues start so I think it's a fair assumption he'll leave the game early only to hand over the ball to the worst bullpen in baseball.
The Halos turn to veteran right-hander Jered Weaver (9-11, 5.31 ERA). He held the Jays to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 win his last time out but had surrendered four earned runs or more in each of his previous three starts. Cincy has nothing to play for but pride, but the team has not stopped trying and the Reds have swung their bats alright in recent games.
Over is 4-1-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings and 8-2 in the Reds' last 10 games following a loss.
What has been troubling about the Reds the last two games, and forces us to adjust our ratings, is that they have shown one of the ugly "tells" that show up when a bad team is on the road this late in the season. One of the items that had been pushed as a "plus" for them, their solid offensive showing across the MLB metrics since the All Star break, disappeared through a lack of patience. In 65 plate appearances the last two games they have only drawn one walk, and note that that means against Archie Bradley, who has been among MLB's worst in BB/9 this season - it was the first time in his career that he did not walk a batter (I do not count a start vs. the Rockies last year when he left after only facing 6 batters).
One of the notions I do believe is that hitters go hard to the final pitch of the season, because there is contract money on the line in every at-bat. But that can often mean being too aggressive and lacking patience, because you earn more with contact than you do by drawing walks. The lack of patience shown the last two days by the Cincinnati hitters does bother me a bit.
Los Angeles @ COLORADO
COLORADO +110 over Los Angeles
Rich Hill has thrown a mere 111 innings over the past two seasons split between Boston last year and the A?s and Dodgers this year. Oh, to be a lefty and blessed with infinite opportunities. After years of chronically terrible control, Hill changed his arm slot last summer and actually found something (great command and a double-digit K-rate vL and vR). It would be very easy to call it a blip but it's just enough to hold our attention for now but not as a road favorite in Colorado. Hill?s swing and miss rate in his last start was 6% (3 K?s in 6 IP) and that came after he missed some starts with a blister. That strongly suggests his grip has been altered. He?s still a pitcher that throws just 89 MPH. While we are not going to take anything away from the success Hill has had, this venue could not care less. There has never been a pitcher unaffected by the park factors here and that alone makes Hill a risky investment spotting a price. The Rockies are winning a high percentage of their home games these days, which includes the opener last night (8-1) against Rookie-of-the Year favorite, Kenta Maeta.
Tyler Anderson is also a lefty and is very used to pitching at Coors. Colorado?s pitchers know not to panic when trouble sets in or when they allow some runs because it is just part of dealing with pitching half your games at Coors. Aside from that, Anderson has been outstanding at home with the underlying support of a strong collection of skills: 8.2 K?s/9, 2.3 BB?s/9 and 53% groundballs. The Rockies have won six of Anderson?s nine starts at Coors, which includes a 12-2 beat down of these Dodgers back in early August. Los Angeles is not in better form than the Rocks are right now and again, Rich Hill?s recurring blister problem may have forced him to change his grip on the ball because his K-rate last game was WAY down. We?ll see how that plays out but we trust we?re going with the best of it here.
The Giants are 19-7 when Cueto starts, though they have lost five of his last eight outings
Over is 16-5 in ARI last 21 games following a win.
Over is 36-14-1 in ARI last 51 overall.
In the Sights, NCAA Friday?
I don?t believe the markets are taking the right direction on a college game for Friday night, and with the Total having dropped from 50 to 47.5 there is an edge emerging to #152 Stanford/Kansas State Over (9:00 Eastern), with 49 the value point. This one works from three directions, including both QB positions, so let?s start with them.
Jesse Ertz has a chance to be a major upgrade for the Wildcats, who were significantly under-manned at QB in 2015, after Ertz was was injured early in the opening game. Replacement Joe Hubener completed only 46.7 percent of his passes, with more interceptions than TDs, so having a plus player at the position means a substantial paradigm change for the offenese. Ertz brings the tools to be that, and the way that his own teammates have been talking about him speaks volumes. From center Dalton Risner ? ?The sky is the limit for Jesse. People may not realize it, but the guy is such a great athlete. We go to the pool, and he is the fastest swimmer. We go to the basketball court, and no one can guard him. He never loses at video games. He is a born winner, and I can?t wait for him to prove it on the football field.? Aiding the assimilation for Ertz is that JucCo transfer WR Byron Pringle has been living up to his billing in practice, and provides a needed weapon down the field.
Then there is the Stanford QB situation, where it has been a long time since someone other than Kevin Hogan or Andrew Luck was the starter at QB. It might sound like a daunting task for Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst to step in (Burns will start but I expect both to play), but it isn?t. Despite starting throughout his career Hogan was mostly a game manager, and did not bring any particular upside to the position. Burns and Chryst naturally lack his experience, but may bring more ability.
Making it easy for those QBs is the presence of Christian McCaffrey, of course, and he provides the third key here. David Shaw felt that his star RB deserved the Heisman last year but it was the usual problem ? McCaffrey won the west coast voters but not the rest of the nation, many of those voters not seeing his games. Now there is a prime-time national television setting for Shaw to showcase his player, and that could mean a little different flow than usual in the fourth quarter ? should Stanford have command, which the oddsmakers and betting markets logically project, there is an expectation that McCaffrey could be on the field for a drive or two more than usual, in part to take advantage of the showcase, and also because the Cardinal does not play for 15 days after this, so there is no particular reason to hold anything back.
Some coaches use an early game to get as many players on the field as possible, and develop depth for later. That will not be Shaw?s way ? Stanford?s immediate aftermath is a home game with USC, then trips to UCLA and Washington, one of the toughest opening draws of any team, so his task is to have his best players as ready to go a full 60 minutes as possible.
