07:10 PM MLB [958] Atlanta Braves -120 ( ACTION )
10:15 PM MLB [964] TOTAL u8-105 (San Diego Padres vrs San Francisco Giants) ( C Richard/Suarez)
07:10 PM MLB [968] TOTAL u10-110 (Baltimore Orioles vrs Boston Red Sox) ( D Bundy/Pomeranz)
07:10 PM MLB [969] TOTAL o9-110 (Minnesota Twins vrs Detroit Tigers) ( K Gibson - R / M Boyd)
07:15 PM MLB [972] Kansas City Royals -170 ( ACTION )
08:10 PM MLB [975] TOTAL o9-110 (Texas Rangers vrs Houston Astros) ( A Griffin - R /Peacock)
1 unit bet pays 38 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-155, -26.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Over is 23-6-1 in Braves last 30 overall....over is 11-1 in Braves? last 12 home games....Over is 20-7-1 in the last 28 Marlins/Braves meetings.
Minnesota Over is 15-5 last 20 overall, 0-3 last 3....Minnesota is 68-28-4 O/U in their last 100 games
Over is 36-14-1 in ARI last 51 home games.
Los Angeles @ N.Y. YANKEES
Los Angeles -1? +135 over N.Y. YANKEES
in a much bigger pitching mismatch than last night?s game. C.C. Sabathia has 13 quality starts in 26 attempts this season but most of those came early. Over his last 14 starts, Sabathia has two of the quality variety. At the age of 35 and with another 154 innings under his belt this year, he is not to be trusted in any way. Sabathia?s skills aren't terrible but his overall trajectory is still headed in the wrong direction. Sabathia knows enough about pitching to take advantage of the first pitch strike frequently but with a diminished arsenal and running on a low tank, he is getting a little too much credit here. The Yanks may have peaked out and perhaps they?re getting a little too much here also.
Julio Urias has been one of the top seven most skilled young starters in 2016 at age 19. Urias has posted 10.1 K?s/9, 3.2 BB?s/9?s and 44% grounders. Two of his command sub-indicators support most of his strong level of command too (10.2% swing and miss rate, 64% first-pitch strike rate). An unlucky 36% hit-rate has kept his surface stats worse than they should be and that makes Urias one of the best, if not the best buy low targets in the league.
Rays at Blue Jays
Play: Rays +184
We have another nice underdog that shows a ton of value tonight in the Tampa Bay Rays. The starting pitchers for tonight are for the Rays LH Drew Smyly (6-11, 5.05 ERA) and he goes up against the Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (9-7, 4.55 ERA) Smyly has had a real disappointing year for the Rays. There has been a few bright spots for the 27 yr old hurler and pitching against the Jays this year has been one of them. In his last two starts at the Rogers Centre in 2016, he has pitched 11 innings and only allowed 3 runs with the Rays winning both those games 9-2 and 13-2 respectively. For his career when starting against the Jays, Smyly has a 2.89 ERA with a WHIP of 0.884. As for Stroman, just like his teammate and fellow young gun Aaron Sanchez we believe the innings are starting to wear him down. In his last 3 starts he has a 5.29 ERA with a WHIP of 1.471. Against the Rays he has had his troubles sporting a 4.89 ERA with a WHIP of 1.42. The Blue Jays are more than a 2-1 favorite in this game which makes us believe maybe the whole country of Canada has bet them,pushing them upwards to 210 at some books from their opening line of 180. As we always say when we see HUGE value in a play we take it. Backing our selection is the fact that the Rays are 15-6 in Smyly's last 21 starts vs.the American League East and the fact that the Blue Jays are 0-5 in Stroman's last 5 starts vs. the American League East.
Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 9
I'll back the 'over' in Toronto on Tuesday night as the Rays send Drew Smyly to the hill against Marcus Stroman of the Jays. The last time Smyly faced the Jays I was actually in attendance at Rogers Centre. Smyly wasn't great, but he was good enough to hold the Jays to only two earned runs over six innings on that night. He was in a real groove at that stage of the season, but that's not the case now as he's been tagged for nine earned runs over his last 8 2/3 innings of work. I look for his woes to continue against the Jays here. Marcus Stroman pitched relatively well last time out in the Bronx, but continues to labor through what has been a trying campaign. He's been below average at home, with an ERA approaching five. This will be the fifth time the Rays will have seen Stroman this season, and he's allowed at least three earned runs in three of his previous four starts against them, including seven earned runs in one outing. I don't have enough faith in either bullpen to clean things up, even if this one does stay low-scoring early.
Wisler will be making his first start since Aug. 31, when he sustained an oblique injury while striking out a career-high 10 batters. Opponents are hitting just .125 vs. the right-hander since he returned from Triple-A Gwinnett.
Wisler went to the minors, corrected a few mechanical issues, cleared his mind and came back looking like his old self. In two starts since being recalled, Wisler is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA, striking out 14 in 14 innings.
But Wisler complained of pain in his side and the club skipped his start to give him additional time to recover. He showed no problems in two interim bullpen sessions, but is likely to be on a short leash on Tuesday.
Garza has a 0.98 ERA while holding opponents to a .162 average over his last three starts, and is reinventing himself in the penultimate season of a four-year contract. ?I?m finally back full strength and healthy,? he said.
Milwaukee vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
Reds RH Dan Straily has had as solid a second-half as just about any starter in the National League, but two of his last three starts have been quite ugly. But those came on the road against the Pirates and Angels, and we'll expect much better things from Straily tonight back at Great America Park. In his last three starts here, Straily has gone 3-0 and allowed just three earned runs in 17 2/3 innings against the Marlins, Rangers, and Cardinals. In two previous starts against the Brewers this season, Straily has allowed just two earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, while the Reds have won both of those games by a combined score of 12-6. He'll face the Brewers for a third time tonight with fellow right-hander Matt Garza getting the ball for Milwaukee. Garza has struggled in his career against the Reds, going 4-4 with a 5.04 ERA in 13 starts covering 75 innings. The Reds are 9-1 in Straily's last 11 starts overall and 7-0 in his last seven here at home. Meanwhile, the Crew is 2-7 in Garza's last nine road starts.
Matt Boyd has been a big reason why the Tigers won't necessarily be in trouble without Jordan Zimmermann, who returned from the disabled list with a nightmare start and will be skipped this time around. Boyd, a 25-year-old lefty, returned to the majors on July 9 with a 6.44 ERA, but has since shaved it down to 3.89 thanks to a 2.56 ERA in 56.3 innings. He hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of 10 starts since returning, and he's logged at least six innings in four of his last five, including a 6 IP/3 ER outing against Minnesota with seven strikeouts. He also went six scoreless with seven strikeouts against the Twins on July 18.
Brewers at Reds
Play: Brewers
The Reds slowed down the Brewers last night at Great American Ballpark, 3-0, as Cincinnati has won four straight games. Milwaukee has stumbled a bit on the road of late since winning five straight away from Miller Park, losing three of the past four on the highway. Dan Straily takes the mound for Cincinnati tonight, as the Reds are 8-1 in his past nine home starts, including a 1-0 win over Milwaukee in mid-July. Straily hasn't been sharp of late by giving up 11 ER in his last three outings, a span of 13.1 innings. Matt Garza has pitched well of late since a slow start for Milwaukee, as the Brewers are 7-2 in his last nine starts. Garza has allowed two earned runs in his last three starts, while beating the Cubs and Cardinals as a home underdog. I'll back Milwaukee to end Cincinnati's winning streak.
Baltimore @ BOSTON
BOSTON -1? +130 over Baltimore
Boston took the opener of this series last night with a 12-2 victory and quite frankly, we?re not sure how the Orioles don?t lose by 10 runs every night. The O?s have putrid pitching, they swing at everything, they steal a base once every 40 games and their manager costs them games more than most. The Orioles continue to rely on jacks to win games and whether it?s now or in the playoffs, that approach cannot hold up over time. As the nights get cooler (balls don?t carry as well), so too will the Orioles so the attack is on. Besides all that, Orioles starter today, Dylan Bundy is pitching on borrowed time.
Bundy has upside. He?s a former top prospect that throws 94 MPH but velocity isn?t everything. We?re seeing a slew of starters laboring down the stretch, as durability issues come into play in the final three weeks of the season and you can add Bundy to that list. Prior to this year and since 2012, Bundy has thrown a combined 80 innings. This year, he?s already up to 94 innings. TJS erased nearly all of his 2013 and 2014 seasons while a shoulder issue ended his 2015 in May. Bundy has walked 15 batters over his last 24 frames. His groundball rate in his last start was a disturbing 27%. Even with a high strand rate of 82%, Bundy?s ERA in his last five starts was 6.46 with a WHIP of 1.82. Bundy is living on the fringe these days while the Red Sox are knocking off most while taking names along the way. A tired, fly-ball pitcher in this park against this red-hot team is a recipe for disaster.
An off-season trade to San Diego was just what Drew Pomeranz needed to jump-start his career, as the Padres lack of starting pitching depth allowed him to earn a spot in the rotation, despite posting an 8.36 ERA and unspectacular skills during spring training. Pomeranz rewarded the Padres' faith by throwing 120 innings of 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP ball before he was flipped to the Red Sox in July. Under team control through 2018, is Pomeranz sufficiently skilled to thrive similarly in the AL East? Not really but he does have 174 K?;s in 159 innings with the support of a 12% swing and miss rate. Over his last 31 innings, Pomeranz has a BB/K split of 7/33 so he appears to be getting stronger and not weaker like most. Pomeranz?s knuckle-curve is the key here, as he throws that pitch more than any other pitch (40%) and it makes a lot of sense given the quantity of grounders (71%) and swinging strikes (13%) the pitch induces. We?re not relying on Pomeranz however. If he throws a great game, that?ll just be a bonus. We?re relying on the far superior team to put MLB?s biggest overachievers and frauds out of their misery.
Twins at Tigers
Pick: Over
The Tigers are just two games back in the race for one of the AL Wildcard slots. The Tigers could be closer if not for losing four of their last five games. Matt Boyd will toe the rubber tonight for the Tigers, with a 5-3 record and 3.89 ERA. While the Twins are in last place, they now play the role of spoiler. Kyle Gibson will try and put a dent in the Tigers playoff hopes tonight. Gibson is 5-9 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Gibson has been plagued by the long ball of late, allowing multiple home runs in three of his last five starts. Gibson rarely makes it past the fifth inning, which means the bad Twins bullpen gets the ball. The Twins have gone OVER in the last eight starts by Gibson. In addition, Minnesota is 68-28-4 O/U in their last 100 games. I look for the Tigers to get plenty of runs here tonight as this one goes OVER the number.
Texas @ HOUSTON
HOUSTON -110 over Texas
Brad Peacock gets this call for the Astronauts and he doesn?t have a lot of upside. Peacock has spent most of the year in the minors, as he?s made just one start at this level along with five relief appearances. Overall, Peacock has a career 4.62 ERA over 42 starts at this level over the past five years. He?s a career minor-leaguer that is starting today because both Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers are out with injuries. What stands out to us more than all that is the odds makers have made the Astros (and Peacock) the chalk here against the team with the best record in the AL and against A.J. Griffin, a recognizable starter that has lost just four games in 20 starts this season.
Baseball is an amazing game. It?s amazing because a pitcher like A. J. Griffin can have success while fooling folks into thinking he?s capable of sustaining it. He?s not capable, which is why you read this section. We?re able to identify the facts from the flukes and A.J. Griffin is one of the biggest flukes we?ve ever seen. Griffin?s fastball averages 87 MPH now. His groundball/fly-ball split of 21%/55% is the worst split in the majors among all pitchers. His first-pitch strike rate is below average at 55%. His 1.34 WHIP is also above acceptability levels. A.J. Griffin has zero serviceable skills. He occasionally gets hitters to chase his curve out of the zone but that is getting less frequent too. Last year, Griffin recovered from '14 Tommy John surgery, then just before going on a rehab stint, shoulder tendinitis struck, and he missed ANOTHER full season. He?s been rancid this year but the surface stats don?t really show it. Griffin has been trying to shake off two years of rust all season and has not been able to do it. The underlying stats say this is perhaps the worst starter the game has to offer. As a small price at home, the Astronauts offer up all the value here because not many know just how bad Griffin is. You do now.
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8?
The Chicago Cubs defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-2 on Monday to extend their lead in the NL Central to 17 games. Three straight meetings had gone over the total prior to last night's contest, and I think we'll see a high-scoring encounter tonight.
Jaime Garcia (10-12, 4.58) will take the ball for the Cardinals. He's posted an 8.06 ERA over his last five outings and he was lit up for five runs on eight hits with a pair of homers in just 3 2/3 innings of a 12-5 loss to the Brewers his last time out.
The Cubs turn to Jason Hammel (14-8, 3.50 ERA) who has posted a 9.35 ERA over his last four starts, and he was torched for nine runs (eight earned) on 13 hits with a pair of homers in 5 2/3 innings of a 12-5 loss at Milwaukee his last time out. Pretty funny that both pitchers were knocked around by the Brew Crew in their last start.
The Cubs are hitting lefties at a .265 clip on the season and the over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games vs. a left-handed starter. Each of Garcia's last five starts have gone over the total and the over is 5-2 in Hammel's last seven road starts.
---
The Oakland Athletics dread facing left-handed pitchers.
The A's have lost 18 of their past 24 games in which the opposing club starts a left-hander. They are 15-23, a .395 winning percentage, the worst in the majors when opponents start a southpaw.
The A's will see one of the best left-handers in the American League Tuesday night when the Kansas City Royals will start Danny Duffy,
--
I want to trust Robbie Ray, I really do ... I just don't, though. He's been a strikeout beast this year (11.3 K/9), but he still allows way too much hard contact to find consistent success. His 36 percent hard contact rate is fourth-highest in the league.
I am taking the over in this contest. I can?t trust the rookie Meyer against the big bats of the Mariners, as he has struggled with his control in his limited action, and has allowed six runs in his seven innings pitched, so the Mariners should put some crooked numbers on the board against him. Also, Walker has been cranked by the Angels this season, allowing 12 runs in 4.2 innings, plus he has an awful 8.89 ERA over his last six starts, so I can see the Angels doing big damage against him as well.
The Mariners' Taijuan Walker, meanwhile, is trying to recover from perhaps the worst performance of his major league career. On Sept. 3, Walker allowed five runs on six hits in only two-thirds of an inning in receiving his fourth consecutive loss, a 10-3 rout by the Angels.
The right-hander told the Seattle Times that he was "in shock" after that performance. Then he met with pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. to discuss the changes the coach wanted to make to Walker's delivery.
Walker, who had resisted those changes even during a personal six-game losing streak from May 1 to June 3, implemented them Thursday night against the Texas Rangers. Despite walking the first two batters he faced, the right-hander kept them from scoring. The Mariners' 6-3 win enabled Walker to break his four-game losing streak.
Clayton Richard - The veteran left-hander has seen a career revival since he joined the Padres rotation a month ago. In five starts, Richard has allowed three earned runs, and he owns the highest ground ball rate in baseball in that time.
Suarez has limited opponents to three runs or fewer in the first nine starts of his career. He's the first Giants player to record that long a streak since Ryan Jensen did it in his first 11 starts in 2001.
10:15 PM MLB [964] TOTAL u8-105 (San Diego Padres vrs San Francisco Giants) ( C Richard/Suarez)
07:10 PM MLB [968] TOTAL u10-110 (Baltimore Orioles vrs Boston Red Sox) ( D Bundy/Pomeranz)
07:10 PM MLB [969] TOTAL o9-110 (Minnesota Twins vrs Detroit Tigers) ( K Gibson - R / M Boyd)
07:15 PM MLB [972] Kansas City Royals -170 ( ACTION )
08:10 PM MLB [975] TOTAL o9-110 (Texas Rangers vrs Houston Astros) ( A Griffin - R /Peacock)
1 unit bet pays 38 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-155, -26.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Over is 23-6-1 in Braves last 30 overall....over is 11-1 in Braves? last 12 home games....Over is 20-7-1 in the last 28 Marlins/Braves meetings.
Minnesota Over is 15-5 last 20 overall, 0-3 last 3....Minnesota is 68-28-4 O/U in their last 100 games
Over is 36-14-1 in ARI last 51 home games.
Los Angeles @ N.Y. YANKEES
Los Angeles -1? +135 over N.Y. YANKEES
in a much bigger pitching mismatch than last night?s game. C.C. Sabathia has 13 quality starts in 26 attempts this season but most of those came early. Over his last 14 starts, Sabathia has two of the quality variety. At the age of 35 and with another 154 innings under his belt this year, he is not to be trusted in any way. Sabathia?s skills aren't terrible but his overall trajectory is still headed in the wrong direction. Sabathia knows enough about pitching to take advantage of the first pitch strike frequently but with a diminished arsenal and running on a low tank, he is getting a little too much credit here. The Yanks may have peaked out and perhaps they?re getting a little too much here also.
Julio Urias has been one of the top seven most skilled young starters in 2016 at age 19. Urias has posted 10.1 K?s/9, 3.2 BB?s/9?s and 44% grounders. Two of his command sub-indicators support most of his strong level of command too (10.2% swing and miss rate, 64% first-pitch strike rate). An unlucky 36% hit-rate has kept his surface stats worse than they should be and that makes Urias one of the best, if not the best buy low targets in the league.
Rays at Blue Jays
Play: Rays +184
We have another nice underdog that shows a ton of value tonight in the Tampa Bay Rays. The starting pitchers for tonight are for the Rays LH Drew Smyly (6-11, 5.05 ERA) and he goes up against the Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (9-7, 4.55 ERA) Smyly has had a real disappointing year for the Rays. There has been a few bright spots for the 27 yr old hurler and pitching against the Jays this year has been one of them. In his last two starts at the Rogers Centre in 2016, he has pitched 11 innings and only allowed 3 runs with the Rays winning both those games 9-2 and 13-2 respectively. For his career when starting against the Jays, Smyly has a 2.89 ERA with a WHIP of 0.884. As for Stroman, just like his teammate and fellow young gun Aaron Sanchez we believe the innings are starting to wear him down. In his last 3 starts he has a 5.29 ERA with a WHIP of 1.471. Against the Rays he has had his troubles sporting a 4.89 ERA with a WHIP of 1.42. The Blue Jays are more than a 2-1 favorite in this game which makes us believe maybe the whole country of Canada has bet them,pushing them upwards to 210 at some books from their opening line of 180. As we always say when we see HUGE value in a play we take it. Backing our selection is the fact that the Rays are 15-6 in Smyly's last 21 starts vs.the American League East and the fact that the Blue Jays are 0-5 in Stroman's last 5 starts vs. the American League East.
Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 9
I'll back the 'over' in Toronto on Tuesday night as the Rays send Drew Smyly to the hill against Marcus Stroman of the Jays. The last time Smyly faced the Jays I was actually in attendance at Rogers Centre. Smyly wasn't great, but he was good enough to hold the Jays to only two earned runs over six innings on that night. He was in a real groove at that stage of the season, but that's not the case now as he's been tagged for nine earned runs over his last 8 2/3 innings of work. I look for his woes to continue against the Jays here. Marcus Stroman pitched relatively well last time out in the Bronx, but continues to labor through what has been a trying campaign. He's been below average at home, with an ERA approaching five. This will be the fifth time the Rays will have seen Stroman this season, and he's allowed at least three earned runs in three of his previous four starts against them, including seven earned runs in one outing. I don't have enough faith in either bullpen to clean things up, even if this one does stay low-scoring early.
Wisler will be making his first start since Aug. 31, when he sustained an oblique injury while striking out a career-high 10 batters. Opponents are hitting just .125 vs. the right-hander since he returned from Triple-A Gwinnett.
Wisler went to the minors, corrected a few mechanical issues, cleared his mind and came back looking like his old self. In two starts since being recalled, Wisler is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA, striking out 14 in 14 innings.
But Wisler complained of pain in his side and the club skipped his start to give him additional time to recover. He showed no problems in two interim bullpen sessions, but is likely to be on a short leash on Tuesday.
Garza has a 0.98 ERA while holding opponents to a .162 average over his last three starts, and is reinventing himself in the penultimate season of a four-year contract. ?I?m finally back full strength and healthy,? he said.
Milwaukee vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
Reds RH Dan Straily has had as solid a second-half as just about any starter in the National League, but two of his last three starts have been quite ugly. But those came on the road against the Pirates and Angels, and we'll expect much better things from Straily tonight back at Great America Park. In his last three starts here, Straily has gone 3-0 and allowed just three earned runs in 17 2/3 innings against the Marlins, Rangers, and Cardinals. In two previous starts against the Brewers this season, Straily has allowed just two earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, while the Reds have won both of those games by a combined score of 12-6. He'll face the Brewers for a third time tonight with fellow right-hander Matt Garza getting the ball for Milwaukee. Garza has struggled in his career against the Reds, going 4-4 with a 5.04 ERA in 13 starts covering 75 innings. The Reds are 9-1 in Straily's last 11 starts overall and 7-0 in his last seven here at home. Meanwhile, the Crew is 2-7 in Garza's last nine road starts.
Matt Boyd has been a big reason why the Tigers won't necessarily be in trouble without Jordan Zimmermann, who returned from the disabled list with a nightmare start and will be skipped this time around. Boyd, a 25-year-old lefty, returned to the majors on July 9 with a 6.44 ERA, but has since shaved it down to 3.89 thanks to a 2.56 ERA in 56.3 innings. He hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of 10 starts since returning, and he's logged at least six innings in four of his last five, including a 6 IP/3 ER outing against Minnesota with seven strikeouts. He also went six scoreless with seven strikeouts against the Twins on July 18.
Brewers at Reds
Play: Brewers
The Reds slowed down the Brewers last night at Great American Ballpark, 3-0, as Cincinnati has won four straight games. Milwaukee has stumbled a bit on the road of late since winning five straight away from Miller Park, losing three of the past four on the highway. Dan Straily takes the mound for Cincinnati tonight, as the Reds are 8-1 in his past nine home starts, including a 1-0 win over Milwaukee in mid-July. Straily hasn't been sharp of late by giving up 11 ER in his last three outings, a span of 13.1 innings. Matt Garza has pitched well of late since a slow start for Milwaukee, as the Brewers are 7-2 in his last nine starts. Garza has allowed two earned runs in his last three starts, while beating the Cubs and Cardinals as a home underdog. I'll back Milwaukee to end Cincinnati's winning streak.
Baltimore @ BOSTON
BOSTON -1? +130 over Baltimore
Boston took the opener of this series last night with a 12-2 victory and quite frankly, we?re not sure how the Orioles don?t lose by 10 runs every night. The O?s have putrid pitching, they swing at everything, they steal a base once every 40 games and their manager costs them games more than most. The Orioles continue to rely on jacks to win games and whether it?s now or in the playoffs, that approach cannot hold up over time. As the nights get cooler (balls don?t carry as well), so too will the Orioles so the attack is on. Besides all that, Orioles starter today, Dylan Bundy is pitching on borrowed time.
Bundy has upside. He?s a former top prospect that throws 94 MPH but velocity isn?t everything. We?re seeing a slew of starters laboring down the stretch, as durability issues come into play in the final three weeks of the season and you can add Bundy to that list. Prior to this year and since 2012, Bundy has thrown a combined 80 innings. This year, he?s already up to 94 innings. TJS erased nearly all of his 2013 and 2014 seasons while a shoulder issue ended his 2015 in May. Bundy has walked 15 batters over his last 24 frames. His groundball rate in his last start was a disturbing 27%. Even with a high strand rate of 82%, Bundy?s ERA in his last five starts was 6.46 with a WHIP of 1.82. Bundy is living on the fringe these days while the Red Sox are knocking off most while taking names along the way. A tired, fly-ball pitcher in this park against this red-hot team is a recipe for disaster.
An off-season trade to San Diego was just what Drew Pomeranz needed to jump-start his career, as the Padres lack of starting pitching depth allowed him to earn a spot in the rotation, despite posting an 8.36 ERA and unspectacular skills during spring training. Pomeranz rewarded the Padres' faith by throwing 120 innings of 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP ball before he was flipped to the Red Sox in July. Under team control through 2018, is Pomeranz sufficiently skilled to thrive similarly in the AL East? Not really but he does have 174 K?;s in 159 innings with the support of a 12% swing and miss rate. Over his last 31 innings, Pomeranz has a BB/K split of 7/33 so he appears to be getting stronger and not weaker like most. Pomeranz?s knuckle-curve is the key here, as he throws that pitch more than any other pitch (40%) and it makes a lot of sense given the quantity of grounders (71%) and swinging strikes (13%) the pitch induces. We?re not relying on Pomeranz however. If he throws a great game, that?ll just be a bonus. We?re relying on the far superior team to put MLB?s biggest overachievers and frauds out of their misery.
Twins at Tigers
Pick: Over
The Tigers are just two games back in the race for one of the AL Wildcard slots. The Tigers could be closer if not for losing four of their last five games. Matt Boyd will toe the rubber tonight for the Tigers, with a 5-3 record and 3.89 ERA. While the Twins are in last place, they now play the role of spoiler. Kyle Gibson will try and put a dent in the Tigers playoff hopes tonight. Gibson is 5-9 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Gibson has been plagued by the long ball of late, allowing multiple home runs in three of his last five starts. Gibson rarely makes it past the fifth inning, which means the bad Twins bullpen gets the ball. The Twins have gone OVER in the last eight starts by Gibson. In addition, Minnesota is 68-28-4 O/U in their last 100 games. I look for the Tigers to get plenty of runs here tonight as this one goes OVER the number.
Texas @ HOUSTON
HOUSTON -110 over Texas
Brad Peacock gets this call for the Astronauts and he doesn?t have a lot of upside. Peacock has spent most of the year in the minors, as he?s made just one start at this level along with five relief appearances. Overall, Peacock has a career 4.62 ERA over 42 starts at this level over the past five years. He?s a career minor-leaguer that is starting today because both Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers are out with injuries. What stands out to us more than all that is the odds makers have made the Astros (and Peacock) the chalk here against the team with the best record in the AL and against A.J. Griffin, a recognizable starter that has lost just four games in 20 starts this season.
Baseball is an amazing game. It?s amazing because a pitcher like A. J. Griffin can have success while fooling folks into thinking he?s capable of sustaining it. He?s not capable, which is why you read this section. We?re able to identify the facts from the flukes and A.J. Griffin is one of the biggest flukes we?ve ever seen. Griffin?s fastball averages 87 MPH now. His groundball/fly-ball split of 21%/55% is the worst split in the majors among all pitchers. His first-pitch strike rate is below average at 55%. His 1.34 WHIP is also above acceptability levels. A.J. Griffin has zero serviceable skills. He occasionally gets hitters to chase his curve out of the zone but that is getting less frequent too. Last year, Griffin recovered from '14 Tommy John surgery, then just before going on a rehab stint, shoulder tendinitis struck, and he missed ANOTHER full season. He?s been rancid this year but the surface stats don?t really show it. Griffin has been trying to shake off two years of rust all season and has not been able to do it. The underlying stats say this is perhaps the worst starter the game has to offer. As a small price at home, the Astronauts offer up all the value here because not many know just how bad Griffin is. You do now.
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8?
The Chicago Cubs defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-2 on Monday to extend their lead in the NL Central to 17 games. Three straight meetings had gone over the total prior to last night's contest, and I think we'll see a high-scoring encounter tonight.
Jaime Garcia (10-12, 4.58) will take the ball for the Cardinals. He's posted an 8.06 ERA over his last five outings and he was lit up for five runs on eight hits with a pair of homers in just 3 2/3 innings of a 12-5 loss to the Brewers his last time out.
The Cubs turn to Jason Hammel (14-8, 3.50 ERA) who has posted a 9.35 ERA over his last four starts, and he was torched for nine runs (eight earned) on 13 hits with a pair of homers in 5 2/3 innings of a 12-5 loss at Milwaukee his last time out. Pretty funny that both pitchers were knocked around by the Brew Crew in their last start.
The Cubs are hitting lefties at a .265 clip on the season and the over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games vs. a left-handed starter. Each of Garcia's last five starts have gone over the total and the over is 5-2 in Hammel's last seven road starts.
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The Oakland Athletics dread facing left-handed pitchers.
The A's have lost 18 of their past 24 games in which the opposing club starts a left-hander. They are 15-23, a .395 winning percentage, the worst in the majors when opponents start a southpaw.
The A's will see one of the best left-handers in the American League Tuesday night when the Kansas City Royals will start Danny Duffy,
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I want to trust Robbie Ray, I really do ... I just don't, though. He's been a strikeout beast this year (11.3 K/9), but he still allows way too much hard contact to find consistent success. His 36 percent hard contact rate is fourth-highest in the league.
I am taking the over in this contest. I can?t trust the rookie Meyer against the big bats of the Mariners, as he has struggled with his control in his limited action, and has allowed six runs in his seven innings pitched, so the Mariners should put some crooked numbers on the board against him. Also, Walker has been cranked by the Angels this season, allowing 12 runs in 4.2 innings, plus he has an awful 8.89 ERA over his last six starts, so I can see the Angels doing big damage against him as well.
The Mariners' Taijuan Walker, meanwhile, is trying to recover from perhaps the worst performance of his major league career. On Sept. 3, Walker allowed five runs on six hits in only two-thirds of an inning in receiving his fourth consecutive loss, a 10-3 rout by the Angels.
The right-hander told the Seattle Times that he was "in shock" after that performance. Then he met with pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. to discuss the changes the coach wanted to make to Walker's delivery.
Walker, who had resisted those changes even during a personal six-game losing streak from May 1 to June 3, implemented them Thursday night against the Texas Rangers. Despite walking the first two batters he faced, the right-hander kept them from scoring. The Mariners' 6-3 win enabled Walker to break his four-game losing streak.
Clayton Richard - The veteran left-hander has seen a career revival since he joined the Padres rotation a month ago. In five starts, Richard has allowed three earned runs, and he owns the highest ground ball rate in baseball in that time.
Suarez has limited opponents to three runs or fewer in the first nine starts of his career. He's the first Giants player to record that long a streak since Ryan Jensen did it in his first 11 starts in 2001.
