07:10 PM MLB [902] TOTAL u8-115 (Atlanta Braves vrs New York Mets) ( J Teheran - R / R Gsellman)
07:10 PM MLB [904] TOTAL u7-130 (Washington Nationals vrs Miami Marlins) ( T Roark - R /Fernandez)
07:05 PM MLB [916] TOTAL u8.5 -110 (Boston Red Sox vrs Baltimore Orioles) ( E Rodriguez/Gausman)
07:10 PM MLB [917] TOTAL o7-110 (New York Yankees vrs Tampa Bay Rays) ( M Pineda - R / D Smyly)
07:10 PM MLB [919] TOTAL o8.5 -115 (Kansas City Royals vrs Cleveland Indians) ( E Volquez/Tomlin)
08:10 PM MLB [924] TOTAL u9.5 -115 (Detroit Tigers vrs Minnesota Twins) ( M Boyd/Santiago)
1 unit bet pays 41 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-161, -32.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 23-5-1 in BAL last 29 home games....Under is 9-2 in Rodriguezs last 11 starts overall....
Going with the Phillies here as James Shields has just been awful this year and I see the Phillies offense that has been playing better of late taking advantage of his struggles. The White Sox have not been a good road team and the Phillies have had the day off, while Chicago just played in Kansas City on Monday night. Good spot here for the Phillies to grab a nice win.
Over is 35-15-1 in ATL last 51 overall......NYM are 20-8 in their last 28 overall.
Teheran was cruising through five (1 ER, 3 H, 5 K, 1 BB) when it came unglued in the sixth: 3B, 1B, HBP, deep flyball out, 3-run HR, fin. Just because it came in one awful sequence doesn't mean we don't count it, but it's a lot different than allowing runs in three of the five-plus innings while dodging traffic of 10 or so base runners. Teheran has not only done his best work on the road this year, but he has also crushed the Mets with a nearly-invisible 0.78 ERA and 0.52 WHIP in 23 innings (8.5 K:BB).
Over is 19-6-1 in KC last 26 overall....CLE are 37-14 in their last 51 home games....Over is 19-6-1 in Tomlins last 26 home starts.
Coldest pitcher: Edinson Volquez, Royals (10-11, 5.40 ERA)
Volquez works in Cleveland against the AL Central-leading Indians. He is 4-7 with a 5.82 ERA in 13 road outings with a .290 opponent batting average, and he is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA in four outings against the Indians with 15 walks over 24 2/3 innings. Volquez was 8-8 with a 4.85 ERA in 19 starts before the All-Star break, but it's been all downhill from there. Since the break Volquez has won just two of his 12 starts with a 6.36 ERA and the opposition is hitting .327. Last time out he was hammered for eight earned runs, four walks and seven hits in just 3 1/3 innings against the Athletics Sept. 15.
Coldest team Yankees (0-5 past five, 1-7 past eight)
The Yankees had chemotherapy in early August, having a cancer removed by the name of Alex Rodriguez. Once the team went into remission, they flourished with a group of young, hungry ball players. A seven-game winning streak from Sept. 4-10, moving within three games of the lead in the American League East. They have tumbled down the standings with their recent cold streak, as those said young players have shown their inexperience with the pressure mounting. The Yankees head into Tuesday's play 8 1/2 games behind the AL East leaders. New York has dropped four in a row on the road, and they're also 0-4 in their past four vs. left-handed starting pitcher.
The pitching forms show Michael Pineda having turned in a 6-11/4.94 season so far, and Drew Smyly a 7-11/4.98, which looks remarkably similar. As such the Rays are given some home field and made the favorites over the Yankees this evening. But the gap between these pitchers has been a significant one, the vagaries of Baseball being about as harsh on Pineda?s bottom line as any pitcher in memory for a full season, and that puts #917 NY Yankees (7:05 Eastern) into play. A shopper can take a few pennies in the morning marketplace, and this would rate good to -105.
Pineda has done a lot of things right, with some terrific stuff showing in a 10.3 K/9 and 14.2 SWS% (only Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard have topped him in that category), good control with a 2.6 BB/9, and also a 45.9 GB% that should add up with those strikeouts into something positive. But a .342 BABIP has ruined those notions, only Collin McHugh and Robbie Ray having had worse seasons in that category, and Pineda has been an outlier for a Yankee defense that has checked in with a .294 BABIP allowed.
Think about the harshness of Baseball reality on his last two starts ? he was working with a comfortable 7-2 lead in the 5th inning vs. these Rays two starts back before a rain delay cost him a ?W? one out away from it being official for him, and in his last outing he battled Clayton Kershaw through four scoreless innings before rain again took him out of the mix.
So what do the more advanced metrics tell us about Pineda/Smyly ?
FIP xFIP SIERA
Pineda 3.76 3.30 3.42
Smyly 4.53 4.49 4.49
That paints a more true portrait of the quality of pitches that have been thrown ? Smyly?s bottom line has been right about where it should be, and that career-low 30.9 GB% tells us that he will get an invitation to someone?s camp next spring because he is left-handed, and not because he is necessarily any good.
Note that the lefty aspect matters here ? this will be the sixth time in the last seven games the Yankees have been up against a left-hander, which makes a difference, and with Kershaw and David Price among those opponents they are stepping way down in class here.
New York vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The NY Yankees are still in postseason contention (four games back in the wild-card chase with 13 games to play) but just barely, after getting swept in a four-game series at Fenway (Thursday-Sunday). Monday was a much-needed day off (the team's final one of the year), as they visit Tropicana Field Tuesday to open a three-game series on a five-game slide. Actually, they've lost seven of eight games, a slump that started when they lost the final game of a four-game series with the Rays at Yankee Stadium back on Sep 11. The 64-85 Rays only role in September has been that of spoiler.
The pitching matchup features Michael Pineda (6-11, 4.94 ERA) up against Drew Smyly (7-11, 4.98 ERA). As one can see by their records, neither pitcher has had much success, with the Yankees going 14-15 (minus-$378) in Pineda?s starts and the Rays going 13-15 (minus-$239) in Smyly?s. However, their success against their current opponent is a much different matter. Pineda is 0-3 against the Rays this season with a 9.31 ERA, his highest for any opponent in 2016. He's given up 31 hits in 19.1 innings, including eight HRs. The Rays are hitting .356 against him this season.
Meanwhile, Smyly is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA against the Yankees this season, as he's given up two ERs in 13 innings against New York. In fact, Smyly has never lost to the Yankees in eight appearances (five starts / team is 4-1), going 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA. Rays are the bet.
Under is 10-2 in WAS last 12 road games....Under is 15-5-1 in WAS last 21 overall....Under is 14-3-1 in MIA last 18 home games...Under is 18-5 in the last 23 meetings in Miami.....MIA are 32-5 in Fernandezs last 37 home starts..
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Under 7
Runs could be at a premium tonight in Miami where the Marlins host the Washington Nationals in Game 2 of their three-game set. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM at Marlins Park where the Floridians are -155 moneyline favorites. The total is 7.
The Nationals (88-62, 42-34 road) magic number for clinching the NL East is five?and holding. They?ve mustered just eight runs during they?re three-game losing skid, including Monday?s 4-3 setback in Florida.
The Marlins (75-75, 37-35 home) are hanging on by a thread in their postseason push. The Fish have won two in a row and four of six to move within four games of the second wild card with 12 to play.
A potential pitcher?s duel could be on tap in South Beach as Tanner Roark (15-8, 2.75 ERA) faces Jose Fernandez. Roark owns a 3-7 career mark with a 4.29 ERA in 16 career appearances versus the Marlins. He?s been lights out over his past four games, allowing three runs and 17 hits to post a 2-1 mark with a 1.08 ERA over that span.
Fernandez (15-8, 2.99 ERA) has won all three of his starts against Washington this season to improve and is now 6-0 with a 1.13 ERA in nine career encounters. He?s been a near lock at home this season, going 11-2 mark with a 1.77 ERA.
There are a slew of trends supporting a play on the UNDER. The two teams have played to the low side in 10 of their last 13 meetings and are 18-5 to the UNDER in their past 23 hookups.
Washington is 10-2 to the UNDER in its last 12 road games and 15-5-1 in its past 21 overall. Miami is 14-3-1 to the south side of the total in its last 18 at home. Finally, the two pitchers are combined 34-22 to the UNDER this season.
Cubs are 18-3 in Lester?s last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Hottest pitcher: Jon Lester, Cubs (17-4, 2.40 ERA)
Lester entered the season with question marks after it was discovered he had some floating bone chips in his elbow which could potentially affect him at any time. He has rolled to 17 wins in 21 decisions with a 2.40 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 184 innings, and he has been even better lately. He is 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA with a 0.67 WHIP over his past three outings while striking out 19 and walking just three in the past 24 innings. The Cubs are 18-3 in his past 21 starts against teams with a losing overall record, and they're 4-0 in his past four outings against divisional foes.
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9
Some line value being offered here because the Brewers Matt Garza's ERA is low over his last 4 starts but he truly has been getting hit hard. Some shoddy defense behind let to some runs not being charged to him but that does not erase the fact that he has given up 5 runs or more in 3 of his last 5 starts. Garza was hit hard in all 3 of those rough outings and the lack of earned runs is simply hiding that fact. Look for him to get rocked by Pittsburgh as they are seeing him for the 4th time in just 2 months and they have got to him for 17 hits (including 3 homers) in 15 and 1/3 innings. The Pirates will have Steven Brault on the mound and he's facing the Pirates for the 3rd time in less than 2 months. The southpaw is winless in his four road starts with a 4.58 ERA that easily could be even higher as he has compiled a 1.81 WHIP away from home. The value here is that both pitchers have been throwing worse than what their ERAs show and the Pirates come into this game having gone over the total in 5 straight games and scoring an average of 9 runs per contest! The Brewers come into this game having won 4 of their last 5 games and averaging 6 runs per game in the process. The over is 27-18 (60%) in Brewers games against southpaw starters. Look for Pittsburgh to cash a 6th straight over.
Oakland is The Under is 6-1 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record
I love the Under in this game. Joe Musgrove has not pitched well overall for the Astros, but his best start was vs these A?s as he allowed zero ERs in 5.1 innings of work in his lone start vs them. Sean Manaea has really been pitching well of late with a 0.59 ERA in his last three starts and he has a solid 2.35 ERA in three starts vs the Astros this year. Both pitchers should have a good showing vs erratic offenses in this one. Go low here.
Over is 34-14-3 in ARI last 51 overall.... Over is 21-9 in the last 30 AZ/SD meetings...Over is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings.
I like the over in this contest. Bradley has struggled big time against San Diego this season, allowing 17 runs in 18 innings so he will give up runs in this one. Also, Clemens has been terrible at home this season where he has an abysmal 6.27 ERA, so I expect the Diamondbacks to do damage off him. The over has hit in seven on Bradley?s nine starts with one push in that span, and I think the over hits again in this one.
SAN DIEGO +107 over Arizona
This is not about backing Paul Clemens of the Padres. Clemens is an average pitcher that comes up with a gem from time to time like all other average pitchers so it?s a roll of the dice as to what type of performance we?ll get out of him. We don?t care, as Arizona is not worthy of being road chalk with a 63-87 record and with Archie Bradley going.
With high expectations after years of being a top prospect, Bradley has scuffled at the MLB level. He's followed up a 5.80 ERA in his rookie season with a 5.07 mark in 2016. Are there any signs Bradley can develop into a front-line starter?Not really. Bradley has trouble throwing strikes and getting ahead in the count. Poor control will remain a major obstacle. He's been able to generate a few more K?s in his sophomore season, but his swing and miss rate tells us he's not missing enough bats for his current K-rate to hold. His elite groundball percentage from 2015 has fallen back while his skills and xERA confirm Bradley has plenty of work to do against MLB hitting. Bradley's wildness makes him unplayable as road chalk. With an inability to throw strikes and miss bats coupled with the loss of his groundball tilt, it's best to fade him when he?s favored and that applies here. Bradley has been getting progressively worse each month so fatigue may be setting in as well.
Under is 17-7-1 in SF last 25 overall...Under is 16-5-1 in LAD last 22 overall...Under is 8-3 in SF last 11 games following a loss..Under is 6-1-1 in LAD last 8 games following a win.
SF Giants @ LA Dodgers
The Dodgers are in control of the National League West Division and will take on second-place San Francisco beginning on Monday. The two teams will meet once more to close out the regular season beginning on Friday, September 30. The Dodgers took two games from the Giants in their last series at the end of August. The postseason hangs in the balance for San Francisco, which lost five of its last seven games heading into Monday night.
On Tuesday, right-hander Johnny Cueto (16-5) will start for the Giants, a team that desperately needs wins. The NL wild card race is tight with the Mets, which swept Minnesota last weekend, in control of the first slot. The Giants and Cardinals are locked in a battle for the second wild card slot. The two teams just split four games over the weekend.
The last time the Dodgers and Giants met, Cueto took on Dodgers? pitcher Rich Hill. He will do the same this time. Hill, who had just been acquired from Oakland at the time, pitched masterfully in that first meeting back on August 24, a 1-0 Dodgers? win. Hill went six innings and scattered just five hits and did not give up a run. Hill is now 3-1 as a Dodger and 12-4 overall.
Hill faces a San Francisco lineup that does not feature a lot of power. Brandon Belt leads the team in home runs with 15. Shortstop Brandon Crawford leads the Giants with 80 RBIs but has hit only 12 homers all year. The Dodgers, on the other hand, feature four players with at least 23 home runs. Corey Seager leads the team with a .313 batting average and has 25 home runs. Justin Turner leads the team with 27 round trippers, Yasmani Grandal has hit 25, and Joc Pederson has 23. Los Angeles also has Adrian Gonzalez (.285, 17 HR, 82 RBIs) in its lineup.
Hottest team: Mariners (9-3 past 12)
The Mariners have won nine of their past 12 to get right back into the thick of the wild-card race in the American League. In Monday's series opener they ran into a buzzsaw known as Marco Estrada, as he carried as a no-hitter into the seventh inning. The Mariners battled back with two in the bottom of the ninth to shave the Jays' lead to 3-2 with two outs, but Seattle just couldn't get over the hump. In Tuesday's game they'll try to deny J.A. Happ his 20th victory. The Jays are 22-6 in Happ's past 28 starts, but they're just 2-5 in their past seven games against a team with a winning record. The Mariners have won eight of the past 10 home starts by Hisashi Iwakuma, and 16 of his past 22 overall.
Biggest UNDER run: Mariners (6-1-1 past eight)
The Mariners have been on quite the 'under' kick lately, partly due to an offensive drought. They have averaged just 2.4 runs per game over the past five outings, scoring two or fewer runs in four of the past five. They face Happ in Tuesday's contest. The under is 5-2 in his past seven starts against teams with a winning overall record, and 3-1-1 in his past five against American League West division battles. The under is 5-0 in Iwakuma's passt five home outings, and 4-1 in his past five starts overall.
USA vs. Canada
Play: USA +1.5
Both Finland and USA are looking to avoid 0-2 records which for Finland will make it tough for them to advance and the U.S. is in fact out of the tournament for certain if they lose tonight so I expect desperation to take hold and all out efforts from both squads today looking to get in the win column. Sweden only beat Russia 2-1 in their first game and I don't expect them to win today by more than a goal if they even win the game at all. I also took a very small taste of the ML for both Finland at +215 and USA at +240 even though in the case of the United States in particular, it will be a tall order taking down the powerhouse Canadian team.
07:10 PM MLB [904] TOTAL u7-130 (Washington Nationals vrs Miami Marlins) ( T Roark - R /Fernandez)
07:05 PM MLB [916] TOTAL u8.5 -110 (Boston Red Sox vrs Baltimore Orioles) ( E Rodriguez/Gausman)
07:10 PM MLB [917] TOTAL o7-110 (New York Yankees vrs Tampa Bay Rays) ( M Pineda - R / D Smyly)
07:10 PM MLB [919] TOTAL o8.5 -115 (Kansas City Royals vrs Cleveland Indians) ( E Volquez/Tomlin)
08:10 PM MLB [924] TOTAL u9.5 -115 (Detroit Tigers vrs Minnesota Twins) ( M Boyd/Santiago)
1 unit bet pays 41 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-161, -32.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 23-5-1 in BAL last 29 home games....Under is 9-2 in Rodriguezs last 11 starts overall....
Going with the Phillies here as James Shields has just been awful this year and I see the Phillies offense that has been playing better of late taking advantage of his struggles. The White Sox have not been a good road team and the Phillies have had the day off, while Chicago just played in Kansas City on Monday night. Good spot here for the Phillies to grab a nice win.
Over is 35-15-1 in ATL last 51 overall......NYM are 20-8 in their last 28 overall.
Teheran was cruising through five (1 ER, 3 H, 5 K, 1 BB) when it came unglued in the sixth: 3B, 1B, HBP, deep flyball out, 3-run HR, fin. Just because it came in one awful sequence doesn't mean we don't count it, but it's a lot different than allowing runs in three of the five-plus innings while dodging traffic of 10 or so base runners. Teheran has not only done his best work on the road this year, but he has also crushed the Mets with a nearly-invisible 0.78 ERA and 0.52 WHIP in 23 innings (8.5 K:BB).
Over is 19-6-1 in KC last 26 overall....CLE are 37-14 in their last 51 home games....Over is 19-6-1 in Tomlins last 26 home starts.
Coldest pitcher: Edinson Volquez, Royals (10-11, 5.40 ERA)
Volquez works in Cleveland against the AL Central-leading Indians. He is 4-7 with a 5.82 ERA in 13 road outings with a .290 opponent batting average, and he is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA in four outings against the Indians with 15 walks over 24 2/3 innings. Volquez was 8-8 with a 4.85 ERA in 19 starts before the All-Star break, but it's been all downhill from there. Since the break Volquez has won just two of his 12 starts with a 6.36 ERA and the opposition is hitting .327. Last time out he was hammered for eight earned runs, four walks and seven hits in just 3 1/3 innings against the Athletics Sept. 15.
Coldest team Yankees (0-5 past five, 1-7 past eight)
The Yankees had chemotherapy in early August, having a cancer removed by the name of Alex Rodriguez. Once the team went into remission, they flourished with a group of young, hungry ball players. A seven-game winning streak from Sept. 4-10, moving within three games of the lead in the American League East. They have tumbled down the standings with their recent cold streak, as those said young players have shown their inexperience with the pressure mounting. The Yankees head into Tuesday's play 8 1/2 games behind the AL East leaders. New York has dropped four in a row on the road, and they're also 0-4 in their past four vs. left-handed starting pitcher.
The pitching forms show Michael Pineda having turned in a 6-11/4.94 season so far, and Drew Smyly a 7-11/4.98, which looks remarkably similar. As such the Rays are given some home field and made the favorites over the Yankees this evening. But the gap between these pitchers has been a significant one, the vagaries of Baseball being about as harsh on Pineda?s bottom line as any pitcher in memory for a full season, and that puts #917 NY Yankees (7:05 Eastern) into play. A shopper can take a few pennies in the morning marketplace, and this would rate good to -105.
Pineda has done a lot of things right, with some terrific stuff showing in a 10.3 K/9 and 14.2 SWS% (only Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard have topped him in that category), good control with a 2.6 BB/9, and also a 45.9 GB% that should add up with those strikeouts into something positive. But a .342 BABIP has ruined those notions, only Collin McHugh and Robbie Ray having had worse seasons in that category, and Pineda has been an outlier for a Yankee defense that has checked in with a .294 BABIP allowed.
Think about the harshness of Baseball reality on his last two starts ? he was working with a comfortable 7-2 lead in the 5th inning vs. these Rays two starts back before a rain delay cost him a ?W? one out away from it being official for him, and in his last outing he battled Clayton Kershaw through four scoreless innings before rain again took him out of the mix.
So what do the more advanced metrics tell us about Pineda/Smyly ?
FIP xFIP SIERA
Pineda 3.76 3.30 3.42
Smyly 4.53 4.49 4.49
That paints a more true portrait of the quality of pitches that have been thrown ? Smyly?s bottom line has been right about where it should be, and that career-low 30.9 GB% tells us that he will get an invitation to someone?s camp next spring because he is left-handed, and not because he is necessarily any good.
Note that the lefty aspect matters here ? this will be the sixth time in the last seven games the Yankees have been up against a left-hander, which makes a difference, and with Kershaw and David Price among those opponents they are stepping way down in class here.
New York vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The NY Yankees are still in postseason contention (four games back in the wild-card chase with 13 games to play) but just barely, after getting swept in a four-game series at Fenway (Thursday-Sunday). Monday was a much-needed day off (the team's final one of the year), as they visit Tropicana Field Tuesday to open a three-game series on a five-game slide. Actually, they've lost seven of eight games, a slump that started when they lost the final game of a four-game series with the Rays at Yankee Stadium back on Sep 11. The 64-85 Rays only role in September has been that of spoiler.
The pitching matchup features Michael Pineda (6-11, 4.94 ERA) up against Drew Smyly (7-11, 4.98 ERA). As one can see by their records, neither pitcher has had much success, with the Yankees going 14-15 (minus-$378) in Pineda?s starts and the Rays going 13-15 (minus-$239) in Smyly?s. However, their success against their current opponent is a much different matter. Pineda is 0-3 against the Rays this season with a 9.31 ERA, his highest for any opponent in 2016. He's given up 31 hits in 19.1 innings, including eight HRs. The Rays are hitting .356 against him this season.
Meanwhile, Smyly is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA against the Yankees this season, as he's given up two ERs in 13 innings against New York. In fact, Smyly has never lost to the Yankees in eight appearances (five starts / team is 4-1), going 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA. Rays are the bet.
Under is 10-2 in WAS last 12 road games....Under is 15-5-1 in WAS last 21 overall....Under is 14-3-1 in MIA last 18 home games...Under is 18-5 in the last 23 meetings in Miami.....MIA are 32-5 in Fernandezs last 37 home starts..
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Under 7
Runs could be at a premium tonight in Miami where the Marlins host the Washington Nationals in Game 2 of their three-game set. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM at Marlins Park where the Floridians are -155 moneyline favorites. The total is 7.
The Nationals (88-62, 42-34 road) magic number for clinching the NL East is five?and holding. They?ve mustered just eight runs during they?re three-game losing skid, including Monday?s 4-3 setback in Florida.
The Marlins (75-75, 37-35 home) are hanging on by a thread in their postseason push. The Fish have won two in a row and four of six to move within four games of the second wild card with 12 to play.
A potential pitcher?s duel could be on tap in South Beach as Tanner Roark (15-8, 2.75 ERA) faces Jose Fernandez. Roark owns a 3-7 career mark with a 4.29 ERA in 16 career appearances versus the Marlins. He?s been lights out over his past four games, allowing three runs and 17 hits to post a 2-1 mark with a 1.08 ERA over that span.
Fernandez (15-8, 2.99 ERA) has won all three of his starts against Washington this season to improve and is now 6-0 with a 1.13 ERA in nine career encounters. He?s been a near lock at home this season, going 11-2 mark with a 1.77 ERA.
There are a slew of trends supporting a play on the UNDER. The two teams have played to the low side in 10 of their last 13 meetings and are 18-5 to the UNDER in their past 23 hookups.
Washington is 10-2 to the UNDER in its last 12 road games and 15-5-1 in its past 21 overall. Miami is 14-3-1 to the south side of the total in its last 18 at home. Finally, the two pitchers are combined 34-22 to the UNDER this season.
Cubs are 18-3 in Lester?s last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Hottest pitcher: Jon Lester, Cubs (17-4, 2.40 ERA)
Lester entered the season with question marks after it was discovered he had some floating bone chips in his elbow which could potentially affect him at any time. He has rolled to 17 wins in 21 decisions with a 2.40 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 184 innings, and he has been even better lately. He is 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA with a 0.67 WHIP over his past three outings while striking out 19 and walking just three in the past 24 innings. The Cubs are 18-3 in his past 21 starts against teams with a losing overall record, and they're 4-0 in his past four outings against divisional foes.
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9
Some line value being offered here because the Brewers Matt Garza's ERA is low over his last 4 starts but he truly has been getting hit hard. Some shoddy defense behind let to some runs not being charged to him but that does not erase the fact that he has given up 5 runs or more in 3 of his last 5 starts. Garza was hit hard in all 3 of those rough outings and the lack of earned runs is simply hiding that fact. Look for him to get rocked by Pittsburgh as they are seeing him for the 4th time in just 2 months and they have got to him for 17 hits (including 3 homers) in 15 and 1/3 innings. The Pirates will have Steven Brault on the mound and he's facing the Pirates for the 3rd time in less than 2 months. The southpaw is winless in his four road starts with a 4.58 ERA that easily could be even higher as he has compiled a 1.81 WHIP away from home. The value here is that both pitchers have been throwing worse than what their ERAs show and the Pirates come into this game having gone over the total in 5 straight games and scoring an average of 9 runs per contest! The Brewers come into this game having won 4 of their last 5 games and averaging 6 runs per game in the process. The over is 27-18 (60%) in Brewers games against southpaw starters. Look for Pittsburgh to cash a 6th straight over.
Oakland is The Under is 6-1 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record
I love the Under in this game. Joe Musgrove has not pitched well overall for the Astros, but his best start was vs these A?s as he allowed zero ERs in 5.1 innings of work in his lone start vs them. Sean Manaea has really been pitching well of late with a 0.59 ERA in his last three starts and he has a solid 2.35 ERA in three starts vs the Astros this year. Both pitchers should have a good showing vs erratic offenses in this one. Go low here.
Over is 34-14-3 in ARI last 51 overall.... Over is 21-9 in the last 30 AZ/SD meetings...Over is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings.
I like the over in this contest. Bradley has struggled big time against San Diego this season, allowing 17 runs in 18 innings so he will give up runs in this one. Also, Clemens has been terrible at home this season where he has an abysmal 6.27 ERA, so I expect the Diamondbacks to do damage off him. The over has hit in seven on Bradley?s nine starts with one push in that span, and I think the over hits again in this one.
SAN DIEGO +107 over Arizona
This is not about backing Paul Clemens of the Padres. Clemens is an average pitcher that comes up with a gem from time to time like all other average pitchers so it?s a roll of the dice as to what type of performance we?ll get out of him. We don?t care, as Arizona is not worthy of being road chalk with a 63-87 record and with Archie Bradley going.
With high expectations after years of being a top prospect, Bradley has scuffled at the MLB level. He's followed up a 5.80 ERA in his rookie season with a 5.07 mark in 2016. Are there any signs Bradley can develop into a front-line starter?Not really. Bradley has trouble throwing strikes and getting ahead in the count. Poor control will remain a major obstacle. He's been able to generate a few more K?s in his sophomore season, but his swing and miss rate tells us he's not missing enough bats for his current K-rate to hold. His elite groundball percentage from 2015 has fallen back while his skills and xERA confirm Bradley has plenty of work to do against MLB hitting. Bradley's wildness makes him unplayable as road chalk. With an inability to throw strikes and miss bats coupled with the loss of his groundball tilt, it's best to fade him when he?s favored and that applies here. Bradley has been getting progressively worse each month so fatigue may be setting in as well.
Under is 17-7-1 in SF last 25 overall...Under is 16-5-1 in LAD last 22 overall...Under is 8-3 in SF last 11 games following a loss..Under is 6-1-1 in LAD last 8 games following a win.
SF Giants @ LA Dodgers
The Dodgers are in control of the National League West Division and will take on second-place San Francisco beginning on Monday. The two teams will meet once more to close out the regular season beginning on Friday, September 30. The Dodgers took two games from the Giants in their last series at the end of August. The postseason hangs in the balance for San Francisco, which lost five of its last seven games heading into Monday night.
On Tuesday, right-hander Johnny Cueto (16-5) will start for the Giants, a team that desperately needs wins. The NL wild card race is tight with the Mets, which swept Minnesota last weekend, in control of the first slot. The Giants and Cardinals are locked in a battle for the second wild card slot. The two teams just split four games over the weekend.
The last time the Dodgers and Giants met, Cueto took on Dodgers? pitcher Rich Hill. He will do the same this time. Hill, who had just been acquired from Oakland at the time, pitched masterfully in that first meeting back on August 24, a 1-0 Dodgers? win. Hill went six innings and scattered just five hits and did not give up a run. Hill is now 3-1 as a Dodger and 12-4 overall.
Hill faces a San Francisco lineup that does not feature a lot of power. Brandon Belt leads the team in home runs with 15. Shortstop Brandon Crawford leads the Giants with 80 RBIs but has hit only 12 homers all year. The Dodgers, on the other hand, feature four players with at least 23 home runs. Corey Seager leads the team with a .313 batting average and has 25 home runs. Justin Turner leads the team with 27 round trippers, Yasmani Grandal has hit 25, and Joc Pederson has 23. Los Angeles also has Adrian Gonzalez (.285, 17 HR, 82 RBIs) in its lineup.
Hottest team: Mariners (9-3 past 12)
The Mariners have won nine of their past 12 to get right back into the thick of the wild-card race in the American League. In Monday's series opener they ran into a buzzsaw known as Marco Estrada, as he carried as a no-hitter into the seventh inning. The Mariners battled back with two in the bottom of the ninth to shave the Jays' lead to 3-2 with two outs, but Seattle just couldn't get over the hump. In Tuesday's game they'll try to deny J.A. Happ his 20th victory. The Jays are 22-6 in Happ's past 28 starts, but they're just 2-5 in their past seven games against a team with a winning record. The Mariners have won eight of the past 10 home starts by Hisashi Iwakuma, and 16 of his past 22 overall.
Biggest UNDER run: Mariners (6-1-1 past eight)
The Mariners have been on quite the 'under' kick lately, partly due to an offensive drought. They have averaged just 2.4 runs per game over the past five outings, scoring two or fewer runs in four of the past five. They face Happ in Tuesday's contest. The under is 5-2 in his past seven starts against teams with a winning overall record, and 3-1-1 in his past five against American League West division battles. The under is 5-0 in Iwakuma's passt five home outings, and 4-1 in his past five starts overall.
USA vs. Canada
Play: USA +1.5
Both Finland and USA are looking to avoid 0-2 records which for Finland will make it tough for them to advance and the U.S. is in fact out of the tournament for certain if they lose tonight so I expect desperation to take hold and all out efforts from both squads today looking to get in the win column. Sweden only beat Russia 2-1 in their first game and I don't expect them to win today by more than a goal if they even win the game at all. I also took a very small taste of the ML for both Finland at +215 and USA at +240 even though in the case of the United States in particular, it will be a tall order taking down the powerhouse Canadian team.
