07:00 PM CBB [511] Towson -3-105
08:00 PM CBB [517] Arkansas +4.5 -115
07:30 PM CBB [520] Middle Tennessee State -3-110
11:00 PM CBB [522] Washington University -12-110
08:30 PM CBB Added Game [572] Arkansas State -7.5 -110
07:35 PM NHL [8] Montreal Canadiens -205
10:05 PM NHL [10] Anaheim Ducks -175
07:00 PM CFB [104] Miami Ohio -7.5 -110
07:35 PM NBA [503] TOTAL o214.5 -150 (B+2) (Portland Trailblazers vrs New York Knicks)
1 unit bet pays 187 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Texas Tech vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn +6
I've already cashed a winning ticket on the Tigers, as I had them as a 7.5-point home favorite in a 83-65 win over Georgia State. Auburn covered again, beating Eastern Kentucky 85-64 as a 15.5-point favorite last time out. I really like this Tigers team, as they are young and full of talent. I also think that they have a coach that can get them to take that next step and compete in the top half of the SEC with Bruce Pearl. Texas Tech has started out 3-0 and are coming off a 19-13 season, while Auburn went just 11-20 a year ago. Note they too hosted Eastern Kentucky at home and won by a similar margin in a 90-71 win. That only strengthens my belief that these are two evenly matched teams and with this game being played on a neutral court, I'll gladly take the points with the Tigers.
Towson -3 over B.C.
Boston College achieved the wrong kind of perfection last season. Along with its football team going 0-8 in ACC play, it became the first Power 5 school to go winless in football and men?s basketball since TCU in 1976-77. The BC basketball team accounted for an 0-19 mark against ACC competition, which includes losing in the league tournament. The Eagles were the first team to go winless in ACC play since Maryland in the 1986-87 season, but back then they played only 14 regular-season conference games. While the Terrapins were hampered by the fallout from the death of Len Bias, the Eagles? decline began shortly after they inexplicably forced Al Skinner out in 2010.
Given the lows of last season, there?s nowhere to go but up, right? That had to be the philosophy of Coach Jim Christian, who played one of the youngest rosters in the nation last season. The Eagles played nine true freshmen during the course of the season, which tied Bradley for the second most nationally. Toss in redshirt freshman Idy Diallo, and the Eagles reached double digits. Boston College will continue to heavily rely on perimeter players to carry the offensive load and so far so good with two victories in three games. However, those wins came against Maryland Eastern Shore and Stony Brook. The Eagles lost their HOME-opener to Nicholls by six points. What?s really at work here is that a Colonial Athletic Association school is favored at an ACC school and the market does not like that one bit. While we are rarely in favor of spotting road points in this sport, we have to continue to play the value when it?s warranted and that applies here. Boston College is still a mess. Christian took over an unenviable situation in Chestnut Hill, but he needs to start to turn it around and make the Eagles, at the very least, respectable. His future could be tied to that of athletic director Brad Bates, who hired him and has a struggling football program, too.
Towson is also 2-1 but the difference is that their loss occurred on the road at Maryland against a very good Terps' squad and they only lost by five points. The Tigers other two games were also on the road and they won them both at George Mason and Morgan State. Heading into last season, the expectations were pretty low, but the Tigers ended up 11-7 in conference play and with 20 wins overall. Towson fell in their CAA tournament opener to Northeastern and lost their first game in the Vegas 16 tournament but Towson is ready for a better season in part due to the return of leading scorer and leading rebounder Arnaud William Adala Moto. The -110senior forward averaged 13.9 points and 8.3 rebounds last season. He is a great interior scorer and the offense will work through Adala Moto again this year. But he can also stretch the defense with his shooting ability. Towson will play its fourth straight game to open the season and it could end up serving them well. With a chance to go 3-1 before its home opener on Friday, the Tigers confidence is high and their play has been solid. A five-point loss to the Terps has to be considered a ?good? loss. The Tigers are the superior team here, they?ve played a much tougher early season schedule and now they?re a small price against a directionless program. We?ll bite.
Arkansas +163 over MINNESOTA
A former Nolan Richardson assistant, Coach Mike Anderson returned to Fayetteville five years ago and was expected to get Arkansas basketball back to national relevance. That hasn't happened, except for the 2015 campaign in which the Razorbacks made their lone NCAA tourney appearance under Anderson. The team is coming off a mediocre 16-16 campaign and a 9-9 mark in the SEC. The Hogs will need to take a step forward, which is entirely possible with a player like Moses Kingsley. A lot can be said about Arkansas? recent recruiting classes, but all that matters now is that this is a very, very good class. Coach Anderson brought in three junior college transfers and has Dustin Thomas eligible after sitting out as a transfer from Colorado. Thomas, a 6-8 junior, should be a nice complimentary player to Kingsley in the paint. The expectations are high for Arlando Cook, but junior college transfers do not always work out. Trey Thompson will provide a more experienced option. The 6-9 forward averaged 17.3 minutes per game last season and played pretty well. Thompson is tough on the glass and a pretty good shot blocker too. The Arkansas backcourt has quite a bit of talent returning. Dusty Hannahs is not losing his starting job after averaging a team high 16.5 points per game in his first season with the Razorbacks. Arkansas has the potential to be a lot better if all of the transfers can come close to living up to their hype and so far so good, as the Hogs are 3-0. However, the victories do not give them much credibility, as they occurred against Fort Wayne, Southern Illinois and UT-Arlington. That said, the Hogs will have the best player on the court here in Moses Kingsley, a future NBAer and besides that, this one is more about fading the overrated 4-0 Gophers.
If this was the first game of the year for both squads, we?re not even sure that the Gophers would be favored. However, after a 4-0 start and putting up some juicy numbers in the process, Minnesota?s stock has risen considerably so now would be the time to sell. Gophers Coach, Richard Pitino is the son of Louisville Coach, Rick Pitino, who knows how to work this system better than anyone. You schedule games against teams you can smoke to build up your resume. You keep your job in the process (Pitino was on the hot seat after going 8-23 last year) and you keep your foot on the gas and try and win by 50 points. Rick Pitino has been doing that for years and he?s passed on his manipulation of the system to his son. The Gophers four wins have occurred against Ul Lafayette, Mount St. Mary?s, UT-Arlington and St. John?s. Minnesota trailed by 12 points at one point against UT-Arlington. They trailed the Johnnies by nine and rallied to win by six. Against Ul Lafayette, the Gophers were outrebounded and committed 19 turnovers but a barrage of three?s carried them to another victory. What we have here is a 4-0 team putting up some big offensive numbers but they?re skewed. As soon as the competition stiffens, the Gophers will be exposed as the extremely vulnerable team that they are. They rely on a high percentage of shots to go down but they don?t have the defense to compensate for it when the shots aren?t falling. A team that plays this way can go cold at any time. That means they can fall behind by a big margin on any given day and that is not the type of team you want to get behind when spotting points or a price. Sure, the Gophers can win here and if they do, good for them but there is money to be made fading this group because they are prone to getting blown out by any equal like the team they?ll face here. They will get blown out once conference play starts because they are ill-equipped to play with the real teams in the Big-10. Take the four points if you wish here but we?re going to stay aggressive and play the Hogs straight up.
Oregon State vs. Tulsa
Play: Oregon St +2?
I'm going to continue to fade Tulsa at least early on as they continue to gel after losing nine seniors. The Golden Hurricane lost to Jacksonville State and Wichita State before beating New Orleans. Now it's going to improve with Jaleel Wheeler back, but will it be enough against the 2-2 Beavers. Oregon State is led by Tres Tinkle and Drew Eubanks. I'd like this pick even more if Stephen Thompson Jr comes back from injury. There aren't a lot of ATS trends that help either side of this wager although you can say that OSU has covered seven of their last nine games after allowing 80 points or more. I just think the Beavers are the better team.
Indiana Hoosiers -13
The Indiana Hoosiers have been mighty impressive in the early going. They are 3-0 this season with an overtime win against Kansas as 6-point dogs, a 22-point win over UMass-Lowell and a 39-point win over Liberty. Their dominance should continue here tonight against IUPU-Fort Wayne.
The Hoosiers are glad to have a healthy James Blackmon Jr. back as he's averaging 23.0 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 56.1% from the floor and 51.9% from 3-point range. This team is absolutely loaded with three other players averaging at least 12 points in Robert Johnson (13.0 ppg, 3.3 apg), OG Anunoby (12.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Thomas Bryant (12.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg). They also have a plethora of 3-point shooters who can stretch the floor.
Fort Wayne's only two wins this season came against Kenyon and UMass-Lowell, but they lost their two road games, including a 57-75 loss at Illinois State as 6.5-point dogs. I just see no way they are able to hang with Indiana, and that was the case last year. The Hoosiers beat them 90-65 as 20-point home favorites, and another beat down can bet expected here.
Plays on any team (INDIANA) - an excellent offensive team (at least 76 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-76 PPG), after a blowout win by 30 points or more are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hoosiers are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games following an ATS loss. The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. The Mastodons are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten foes.
Arkansas St. -8
First year HC Grant McCasland has the Red Wolves playing well out of the gate with wins @Georgetown & vs. Chattanooga on a neutral- two seniors in Devin Carter & Donte Thomas are combining for 26 ppg & sharp shooters Rashad Lindasey & Connor Kern are( 15 for 26 ) from behind the arc to lead Arkansas State.
This should be a solid double digit win versus SIU-Edwardsville at home in the Convocation Center.
The Cougars have dropped back to back games to Texas State by 28 and by 18 to Southern Illionois and seem to be out of sync after starting the season with a one point win at Hawaii & a neutral court 9 point win vs. FAU.
St. Mary?s raised its defensive intensity in its most recent outing. As such, this will be a tough test for a San Jose State squad that is playing its first road game of the season. The under is 3-0-1 in the Spartans? last four overall, 7-3 in their last 10 following a loss, and 3-1-1 in their last five against opponents with winning percentages over .600. It is also 5-1 in the Gaels? last six non-conference contests, 5-2 in their last seven against opponents with winning percentages under .400, and 35-15-1 in their last 51 following a win. Look for this one to stay under the total.
In the Sights, NCAA Hoops?
We can get in play in Madison Garden this afternoon, the markets not having a good feel for where Colorado and Texas are at this stage in each team?s development, which puts #552 Colorado (3:30 Eastern) in pocket, -1.5 available in the morning trading, and this one carrying value up to -3.
Few teams in the nation lost more than the Longhorns did at the end of the 2015-16 season, seniors Javan Felix, Demarcus Holland, Cam Ridley, Prince Ibeh and Connor Lammert using up the last of their eligibility, and Isaiah Taylor opting out for the NBA draft. As such it is almost like starting all over again for the second straight season since Smart moved to Austin, with seven of the nine players in the current rotation freshmen or sophomores, and precious little experience of playing together as a group. That matters, because Smart?s presses require teamwork, and Northwestern had no difficulty slicing through them last night, only turning the ball over 11 times in rolling 77-59. Now there is not just an issue of inexperience but also stamina for young players, this tipoff time coming just 18 hours after last night?s game began.
Experience and stamina are not an issue for Colorado. The Buffaloes start four seniors and a junior, a team already at a higher level of stamina anyway because of practicing and playing at the altitude of Boulder. They got into a hole last night vs. Notre Dame when top interior defender Wesley Gordon picked up foul #2 just 3:30 into the game, and fell behind 50-35 at intermission, but with Gordon back on the floor they fought hard in the second half, building momentum that can carry over here.
Look for the far more developed team to exploit the youth of Texas, and if it is close late the major gap in FT shooting so far (75.2 percent for the Buffaloes to just 63.1 for the Longhorns) helps Thad Boyle?s team to emerge the victor.
Blazers vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks -1
New York is showing some great value here at home against the Blazers. The Knicks come in having won 3 of their last 4, including a 104-94 win at home against the Hawks as a 4-point dog last time out. Portland won 129-109 at Brooklyn in their last contest, but are just 1-3 in their last 4 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8.
The Knicks have been a good team to back when playing at home, as they are 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS in their 7 home games this season. New York is also a team that should continue to get better as we go forward, as they added in a lot of new pieces in the offseason.
Offensively the Knicks are clicking, as they come in averaging 102.4 ppg on the season (104.4 ppg at home) and that's a key factor here in going against the Blazers. Portland is just 1-8 ATS this season against strong offensive teams that are averaging 99+ ppg. The Blazers are also just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games after a road win by 20 or more points.
Portland vs. New York
Pick: Over
The notion automatically here is an obvious steep total of 218.5. Portland is coming off a road win against Brooklyn in which they needed more offense to sustain their poor defense. I expect more of that on Tuesday against a Knicks team that is just as inefficient defensively. Role players from both teams have also seen key upticks in production that should benefit the necessary second unit points needed to cash a high total.
New York is not great defensive team, but the offense is impressive behind Carmelo Anthony and 7-3 Portzingas. The Over is 4-1 in the Knicks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Uptempo Portland is in town, Top 10 in the NBA in scoring but #28 in points allowed. Portland is on a 16-6 run over the total and the over is 21-6 in Trail Blazers last 27 games following a spread win.
Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets +2
The Chicago Bulls are playing their 5th game of a 6 game road trip tonight in Denver and they will look to go 7 in a row ATS tonight. We will be playing the home club tonight and here are some of the reasons why. For the most part we very seldom like stepping in from of any streak, but we believe there are a few situations that make the Denver Nuggets the play tonight. One problem the Bulls have tonight is that they do not play well in Denver. They have actually lost 9 straight games in Denver. The Bulls will be playing their 5th game in 7 nights, as a long road trip can take its toll on a team. Then throw in the fact that the Nuggets are on a 4 game ATS streak themselves. Last but not least there is that little problem of the high altitude which all spells trouble for the Bulls tonight in Denver. Backing our selection is the fact that the Home team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings between the clubs. We had Denver as a 1 point home favorite with our numbers and the oddsmaker has Chicago 2 at the time of this writing. We see some value with the Nuggets as well.
My comp play for Tuesday will be to fly with the Pelicans plus the points as they visit the Hawks.
New Orleans looks to be finally gaining some traction, as the Pels hit Philips Arena a pair of straight up wins their last two times out under their belts, and their 4 wins this season have come over their last 6 games contested!
The Pelicans have cashed in 4 straight, and 5 of their last 6 as well.
The Hawks come home having dropped their last pair of games away from home, and they are on a 1-3 spread slide their last 4 overall.
Series numbers show New Orleans with a 4-3 straight up mark the past 7 meetings, and a 5-2 spread mark in those 7.
Look for the points to work with the surging Pelicans.
--
Tuesday comp play winner is to side with the home team in tonight's Central Michigan-Eastern Michigan battle.
Both sides stand at 6-5, and both are in line for a bowl bid. Obviously, the winner of this one will move up a little as to where they go this bowl season.
I like the Eagles tonight, as they are looking for some revenge on a Chippewas team that has bested them in each of the last 4 series meetings, and 6 of the last 7 overall showdowns.
Both teams play off of hard-fought games, as Central blew a 17-0 lead at home against Ohio, but managed to win 27-20, while Eastern allowed NIU to comeback and beat them in overtime last week.
Eastern Michigan does bring in a 5-0 spread mark their last 5 games contested against teams with a winning record, and Central does indeed fall into that category.
In a near-pick conference battle, will side with the "home cookin'" in this one.
Eastern Michigan in a nail-biter.
Here is list #2 in the updated ?Worn Down Defenses? category.
Defensive Time On The Field
North Carolina 35.97
Missouri 35.28
Mississippi 34.57
Georgia State 34.33
Illinois 34.30
Akron 34.17
Texas State 34.07
Arizona 34.00
South Florida 33.80
Oregon 33.77
Cincinnati 33.42
Texas A&M 33.38
Massachusetts 33.23
Baylor 33.22
Tennessee 33.08
Rutgers 33.08
Utah State 32.95
New Mexico State 32.93
California 32.93
Northern Illinois 32.93
Playing against this list last week went 8-3 ATS, and is 25-15 ATS for the 1st 3 weeks in November.
Thanks Benjy. Note on these charts how much "mindset" becomes a factor for teams approaching their last game. For some of them there is the ability to suck it up and regain a little energy, especially if they are facing an opponent that motivates them. But for others it can go from bad to worse, as players sometimes relish the fact that a bad season is finally coming to an end, and bring even less focus to the practice field (than can be magnified by having the holiday as part of their preparation, and the choice to have a slice of both pumpkin and pecan pie instead of worrying anymore about their training regimen).
There are a lot of big things taking place in the Mid-American Conference this week, as the championship game still awaits the East and West Division Champions. The game is slated for Dec. 2, and the picture of the participants will be much clearer after this week's games.
One of the key matchups is with Ball State and Miami, Ohio, as Miami needs both an Ohio loss and a Miami win to win the East Division. Ohio also plays tonight, against Akron.
I'm putting a small piece on Miami tonight, and giving it to you for free.
Miami rolls into this one riding a five-game winning streak, and there's a little more to this streak than meets the eye. The RedHawks join Illinois (1971) and Tennessee (1988) as the only FBS teams to win five straight games after an 0-6 start to a season. Furthermore, no FBS team has ever won six straight to finish 6-6 overall on the year. The RedHawks can make history tonight.
I'm going to bank on Miami's defense, which is ranked No. 1 in the league in allowing 5.15 yards per play. With triple-revenge on the brain, that stop unit will be fired up tonight.
Let's play a revved up and motivated Miami-O team, minus the points.
2* MIAMI, OHIO
Philadelphia +118 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Panthers return home from a successful four-game trip here that saw them win in Montreal, Ottawa and New York (Rangers). The Panthers lone loss on said trip was in Toronto. The Panthers are now a game over .500 at 10-9 but we?re not buying any of it. The Panthers continue to get outplayed by a wide margin almost every time they take the ice. Against Montreal, they were outshot 37-24 and won in extra time. When they defeated Ottawa 4-1, they were outshot 40-23 and out-chanced 38-18. Against the Rangers this past Sunday, Florida had six scoring chances and won 3-2 in extra time. We?re now going to pay more attention to the Panthers when they don?t get lucky, like when they were smoked in Toronto 6-1 between those three victories. The Panthers are getting most of their production from players that nobody has heard of like Jonathan Marchessault, Colton Sceviour and Denis Malgin to name a few. Jason Demers is the sixth leading scorer on this group! The Panthers rank 27th in scoring chances. They?re an average team whose chances of losing are greater than their chances of winning and when they?re favored against a superior team like they are here, we are going to step in almost every time.
By contrast, Philadelphia is coming off a 3-0 loss to Tampa Bay in which they allowed just 18 shots on net while firing away 32 of their own. The Flyers have badly outshot, out-chanced and outplayed four of their past five opponents, which includes firing away 36 shots on a stingy Wild team. Philly has also taken two minor penalties or less in four straight so a dedication to discipline or staying out of the box appears to be a point of emphasis. Meanwhile, the Flyers have drawn five penalties or more three times in their past eight games and four penalties or more five times. It?s highly unlikely that the Flyers get outplayed here. They are a top Cirsi for team and the numbers strongly suggest that Florida is the inferior team by a wide margin. As long as there is not a big discrepancy in goaltenders? performances here, we should be in position to cash this one.
08:00 PM CBB [517] Arkansas +4.5 -115
07:30 PM CBB [520] Middle Tennessee State -3-110
11:00 PM CBB [522] Washington University -12-110
08:30 PM CBB Added Game [572] Arkansas State -7.5 -110
07:35 PM NHL [8] Montreal Canadiens -205
10:05 PM NHL [10] Anaheim Ducks -175
07:00 PM CFB [104] Miami Ohio -7.5 -110
07:35 PM NBA [503] TOTAL o214.5 -150 (B+2) (Portland Trailblazers vrs New York Knicks)
1 unit bet pays 187 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Texas Tech vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn +6
I've already cashed a winning ticket on the Tigers, as I had them as a 7.5-point home favorite in a 83-65 win over Georgia State. Auburn covered again, beating Eastern Kentucky 85-64 as a 15.5-point favorite last time out. I really like this Tigers team, as they are young and full of talent. I also think that they have a coach that can get them to take that next step and compete in the top half of the SEC with Bruce Pearl. Texas Tech has started out 3-0 and are coming off a 19-13 season, while Auburn went just 11-20 a year ago. Note they too hosted Eastern Kentucky at home and won by a similar margin in a 90-71 win. That only strengthens my belief that these are two evenly matched teams and with this game being played on a neutral court, I'll gladly take the points with the Tigers.
Towson -3 over B.C.
Boston College achieved the wrong kind of perfection last season. Along with its football team going 0-8 in ACC play, it became the first Power 5 school to go winless in football and men?s basketball since TCU in 1976-77. The BC basketball team accounted for an 0-19 mark against ACC competition, which includes losing in the league tournament. The Eagles were the first team to go winless in ACC play since Maryland in the 1986-87 season, but back then they played only 14 regular-season conference games. While the Terrapins were hampered by the fallout from the death of Len Bias, the Eagles? decline began shortly after they inexplicably forced Al Skinner out in 2010.
Given the lows of last season, there?s nowhere to go but up, right? That had to be the philosophy of Coach Jim Christian, who played one of the youngest rosters in the nation last season. The Eagles played nine true freshmen during the course of the season, which tied Bradley for the second most nationally. Toss in redshirt freshman Idy Diallo, and the Eagles reached double digits. Boston College will continue to heavily rely on perimeter players to carry the offensive load and so far so good with two victories in three games. However, those wins came against Maryland Eastern Shore and Stony Brook. The Eagles lost their HOME-opener to Nicholls by six points. What?s really at work here is that a Colonial Athletic Association school is favored at an ACC school and the market does not like that one bit. While we are rarely in favor of spotting road points in this sport, we have to continue to play the value when it?s warranted and that applies here. Boston College is still a mess. Christian took over an unenviable situation in Chestnut Hill, but he needs to start to turn it around and make the Eagles, at the very least, respectable. His future could be tied to that of athletic director Brad Bates, who hired him and has a struggling football program, too.
Towson is also 2-1 but the difference is that their loss occurred on the road at Maryland against a very good Terps' squad and they only lost by five points. The Tigers other two games were also on the road and they won them both at George Mason and Morgan State. Heading into last season, the expectations were pretty low, but the Tigers ended up 11-7 in conference play and with 20 wins overall. Towson fell in their CAA tournament opener to Northeastern and lost their first game in the Vegas 16 tournament but Towson is ready for a better season in part due to the return of leading scorer and leading rebounder Arnaud William Adala Moto. The -110senior forward averaged 13.9 points and 8.3 rebounds last season. He is a great interior scorer and the offense will work through Adala Moto again this year. But he can also stretch the defense with his shooting ability. Towson will play its fourth straight game to open the season and it could end up serving them well. With a chance to go 3-1 before its home opener on Friday, the Tigers confidence is high and their play has been solid. A five-point loss to the Terps has to be considered a ?good? loss. The Tigers are the superior team here, they?ve played a much tougher early season schedule and now they?re a small price against a directionless program. We?ll bite.
Arkansas +163 over MINNESOTA
A former Nolan Richardson assistant, Coach Mike Anderson returned to Fayetteville five years ago and was expected to get Arkansas basketball back to national relevance. That hasn't happened, except for the 2015 campaign in which the Razorbacks made their lone NCAA tourney appearance under Anderson. The team is coming off a mediocre 16-16 campaign and a 9-9 mark in the SEC. The Hogs will need to take a step forward, which is entirely possible with a player like Moses Kingsley. A lot can be said about Arkansas? recent recruiting classes, but all that matters now is that this is a very, very good class. Coach Anderson brought in three junior college transfers and has Dustin Thomas eligible after sitting out as a transfer from Colorado. Thomas, a 6-8 junior, should be a nice complimentary player to Kingsley in the paint. The expectations are high for Arlando Cook, but junior college transfers do not always work out. Trey Thompson will provide a more experienced option. The 6-9 forward averaged 17.3 minutes per game last season and played pretty well. Thompson is tough on the glass and a pretty good shot blocker too. The Arkansas backcourt has quite a bit of talent returning. Dusty Hannahs is not losing his starting job after averaging a team high 16.5 points per game in his first season with the Razorbacks. Arkansas has the potential to be a lot better if all of the transfers can come close to living up to their hype and so far so good, as the Hogs are 3-0. However, the victories do not give them much credibility, as they occurred against Fort Wayne, Southern Illinois and UT-Arlington. That said, the Hogs will have the best player on the court here in Moses Kingsley, a future NBAer and besides that, this one is more about fading the overrated 4-0 Gophers.
If this was the first game of the year for both squads, we?re not even sure that the Gophers would be favored. However, after a 4-0 start and putting up some juicy numbers in the process, Minnesota?s stock has risen considerably so now would be the time to sell. Gophers Coach, Richard Pitino is the son of Louisville Coach, Rick Pitino, who knows how to work this system better than anyone. You schedule games against teams you can smoke to build up your resume. You keep your job in the process (Pitino was on the hot seat after going 8-23 last year) and you keep your foot on the gas and try and win by 50 points. Rick Pitino has been doing that for years and he?s passed on his manipulation of the system to his son. The Gophers four wins have occurred against Ul Lafayette, Mount St. Mary?s, UT-Arlington and St. John?s. Minnesota trailed by 12 points at one point against UT-Arlington. They trailed the Johnnies by nine and rallied to win by six. Against Ul Lafayette, the Gophers were outrebounded and committed 19 turnovers but a barrage of three?s carried them to another victory. What we have here is a 4-0 team putting up some big offensive numbers but they?re skewed. As soon as the competition stiffens, the Gophers will be exposed as the extremely vulnerable team that they are. They rely on a high percentage of shots to go down but they don?t have the defense to compensate for it when the shots aren?t falling. A team that plays this way can go cold at any time. That means they can fall behind by a big margin on any given day and that is not the type of team you want to get behind when spotting points or a price. Sure, the Gophers can win here and if they do, good for them but there is money to be made fading this group because they are prone to getting blown out by any equal like the team they?ll face here. They will get blown out once conference play starts because they are ill-equipped to play with the real teams in the Big-10. Take the four points if you wish here but we?re going to stay aggressive and play the Hogs straight up.
Oregon State vs. Tulsa
Play: Oregon St +2?
I'm going to continue to fade Tulsa at least early on as they continue to gel after losing nine seniors. The Golden Hurricane lost to Jacksonville State and Wichita State before beating New Orleans. Now it's going to improve with Jaleel Wheeler back, but will it be enough against the 2-2 Beavers. Oregon State is led by Tres Tinkle and Drew Eubanks. I'd like this pick even more if Stephen Thompson Jr comes back from injury. There aren't a lot of ATS trends that help either side of this wager although you can say that OSU has covered seven of their last nine games after allowing 80 points or more. I just think the Beavers are the better team.
Indiana Hoosiers -13
The Indiana Hoosiers have been mighty impressive in the early going. They are 3-0 this season with an overtime win against Kansas as 6-point dogs, a 22-point win over UMass-Lowell and a 39-point win over Liberty. Their dominance should continue here tonight against IUPU-Fort Wayne.
The Hoosiers are glad to have a healthy James Blackmon Jr. back as he's averaging 23.0 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 56.1% from the floor and 51.9% from 3-point range. This team is absolutely loaded with three other players averaging at least 12 points in Robert Johnson (13.0 ppg, 3.3 apg), OG Anunoby (12.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Thomas Bryant (12.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg). They also have a plethora of 3-point shooters who can stretch the floor.
Fort Wayne's only two wins this season came against Kenyon and UMass-Lowell, but they lost their two road games, including a 57-75 loss at Illinois State as 6.5-point dogs. I just see no way they are able to hang with Indiana, and that was the case last year. The Hoosiers beat them 90-65 as 20-point home favorites, and another beat down can bet expected here.
Plays on any team (INDIANA) - an excellent offensive team (at least 76 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-76 PPG), after a blowout win by 30 points or more are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hoosiers are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games following an ATS loss. The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. The Mastodons are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten foes.
Arkansas St. -8
First year HC Grant McCasland has the Red Wolves playing well out of the gate with wins @Georgetown & vs. Chattanooga on a neutral- two seniors in Devin Carter & Donte Thomas are combining for 26 ppg & sharp shooters Rashad Lindasey & Connor Kern are( 15 for 26 ) from behind the arc to lead Arkansas State.
This should be a solid double digit win versus SIU-Edwardsville at home in the Convocation Center.
The Cougars have dropped back to back games to Texas State by 28 and by 18 to Southern Illionois and seem to be out of sync after starting the season with a one point win at Hawaii & a neutral court 9 point win vs. FAU.
St. Mary?s raised its defensive intensity in its most recent outing. As such, this will be a tough test for a San Jose State squad that is playing its first road game of the season. The under is 3-0-1 in the Spartans? last four overall, 7-3 in their last 10 following a loss, and 3-1-1 in their last five against opponents with winning percentages over .600. It is also 5-1 in the Gaels? last six non-conference contests, 5-2 in their last seven against opponents with winning percentages under .400, and 35-15-1 in their last 51 following a win. Look for this one to stay under the total.
In the Sights, NCAA Hoops?
We can get in play in Madison Garden this afternoon, the markets not having a good feel for where Colorado and Texas are at this stage in each team?s development, which puts #552 Colorado (3:30 Eastern) in pocket, -1.5 available in the morning trading, and this one carrying value up to -3.
Few teams in the nation lost more than the Longhorns did at the end of the 2015-16 season, seniors Javan Felix, Demarcus Holland, Cam Ridley, Prince Ibeh and Connor Lammert using up the last of their eligibility, and Isaiah Taylor opting out for the NBA draft. As such it is almost like starting all over again for the second straight season since Smart moved to Austin, with seven of the nine players in the current rotation freshmen or sophomores, and precious little experience of playing together as a group. That matters, because Smart?s presses require teamwork, and Northwestern had no difficulty slicing through them last night, only turning the ball over 11 times in rolling 77-59. Now there is not just an issue of inexperience but also stamina for young players, this tipoff time coming just 18 hours after last night?s game began.
Experience and stamina are not an issue for Colorado. The Buffaloes start four seniors and a junior, a team already at a higher level of stamina anyway because of practicing and playing at the altitude of Boulder. They got into a hole last night vs. Notre Dame when top interior defender Wesley Gordon picked up foul #2 just 3:30 into the game, and fell behind 50-35 at intermission, but with Gordon back on the floor they fought hard in the second half, building momentum that can carry over here.
Look for the far more developed team to exploit the youth of Texas, and if it is close late the major gap in FT shooting so far (75.2 percent for the Buffaloes to just 63.1 for the Longhorns) helps Thad Boyle?s team to emerge the victor.
Blazers vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks -1
New York is showing some great value here at home against the Blazers. The Knicks come in having won 3 of their last 4, including a 104-94 win at home against the Hawks as a 4-point dog last time out. Portland won 129-109 at Brooklyn in their last contest, but are just 1-3 in their last 4 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8.
The Knicks have been a good team to back when playing at home, as they are 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS in their 7 home games this season. New York is also a team that should continue to get better as we go forward, as they added in a lot of new pieces in the offseason.
Offensively the Knicks are clicking, as they come in averaging 102.4 ppg on the season (104.4 ppg at home) and that's a key factor here in going against the Blazers. Portland is just 1-8 ATS this season against strong offensive teams that are averaging 99+ ppg. The Blazers are also just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games after a road win by 20 or more points.
Portland vs. New York
Pick: Over
The notion automatically here is an obvious steep total of 218.5. Portland is coming off a road win against Brooklyn in which they needed more offense to sustain their poor defense. I expect more of that on Tuesday against a Knicks team that is just as inefficient defensively. Role players from both teams have also seen key upticks in production that should benefit the necessary second unit points needed to cash a high total.
New York is not great defensive team, but the offense is impressive behind Carmelo Anthony and 7-3 Portzingas. The Over is 4-1 in the Knicks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Uptempo Portland is in town, Top 10 in the NBA in scoring but #28 in points allowed. Portland is on a 16-6 run over the total and the over is 21-6 in Trail Blazers last 27 games following a spread win.
Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets +2
The Chicago Bulls are playing their 5th game of a 6 game road trip tonight in Denver and they will look to go 7 in a row ATS tonight. We will be playing the home club tonight and here are some of the reasons why. For the most part we very seldom like stepping in from of any streak, but we believe there are a few situations that make the Denver Nuggets the play tonight. One problem the Bulls have tonight is that they do not play well in Denver. They have actually lost 9 straight games in Denver. The Bulls will be playing their 5th game in 7 nights, as a long road trip can take its toll on a team. Then throw in the fact that the Nuggets are on a 4 game ATS streak themselves. Last but not least there is that little problem of the high altitude which all spells trouble for the Bulls tonight in Denver. Backing our selection is the fact that the Home team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings between the clubs. We had Denver as a 1 point home favorite with our numbers and the oddsmaker has Chicago 2 at the time of this writing. We see some value with the Nuggets as well.
My comp play for Tuesday will be to fly with the Pelicans plus the points as they visit the Hawks.
New Orleans looks to be finally gaining some traction, as the Pels hit Philips Arena a pair of straight up wins their last two times out under their belts, and their 4 wins this season have come over their last 6 games contested!
The Pelicans have cashed in 4 straight, and 5 of their last 6 as well.
The Hawks come home having dropped their last pair of games away from home, and they are on a 1-3 spread slide their last 4 overall.
Series numbers show New Orleans with a 4-3 straight up mark the past 7 meetings, and a 5-2 spread mark in those 7.
Look for the points to work with the surging Pelicans.
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Tuesday comp play winner is to side with the home team in tonight's Central Michigan-Eastern Michigan battle.
Both sides stand at 6-5, and both are in line for a bowl bid. Obviously, the winner of this one will move up a little as to where they go this bowl season.
I like the Eagles tonight, as they are looking for some revenge on a Chippewas team that has bested them in each of the last 4 series meetings, and 6 of the last 7 overall showdowns.
Both teams play off of hard-fought games, as Central blew a 17-0 lead at home against Ohio, but managed to win 27-20, while Eastern allowed NIU to comeback and beat them in overtime last week.
Eastern Michigan does bring in a 5-0 spread mark their last 5 games contested against teams with a winning record, and Central does indeed fall into that category.
In a near-pick conference battle, will side with the "home cookin'" in this one.
Eastern Michigan in a nail-biter.
Here is list #2 in the updated ?Worn Down Defenses? category.
Defensive Time On The Field
North Carolina 35.97
Missouri 35.28
Mississippi 34.57
Georgia State 34.33
Illinois 34.30
Akron 34.17
Texas State 34.07
Arizona 34.00
South Florida 33.80
Oregon 33.77
Cincinnati 33.42
Texas A&M 33.38
Massachusetts 33.23
Baylor 33.22
Tennessee 33.08
Rutgers 33.08
Utah State 32.95
New Mexico State 32.93
California 32.93
Northern Illinois 32.93
Playing against this list last week went 8-3 ATS, and is 25-15 ATS for the 1st 3 weeks in November.
Thanks Benjy. Note on these charts how much "mindset" becomes a factor for teams approaching their last game. For some of them there is the ability to suck it up and regain a little energy, especially if they are facing an opponent that motivates them. But for others it can go from bad to worse, as players sometimes relish the fact that a bad season is finally coming to an end, and bring even less focus to the practice field (than can be magnified by having the holiday as part of their preparation, and the choice to have a slice of both pumpkin and pecan pie instead of worrying anymore about their training regimen).
There are a lot of big things taking place in the Mid-American Conference this week, as the championship game still awaits the East and West Division Champions. The game is slated for Dec. 2, and the picture of the participants will be much clearer after this week's games.
One of the key matchups is with Ball State and Miami, Ohio, as Miami needs both an Ohio loss and a Miami win to win the East Division. Ohio also plays tonight, against Akron.
I'm putting a small piece on Miami tonight, and giving it to you for free.
Miami rolls into this one riding a five-game winning streak, and there's a little more to this streak than meets the eye. The RedHawks join Illinois (1971) and Tennessee (1988) as the only FBS teams to win five straight games after an 0-6 start to a season. Furthermore, no FBS team has ever won six straight to finish 6-6 overall on the year. The RedHawks can make history tonight.
I'm going to bank on Miami's defense, which is ranked No. 1 in the league in allowing 5.15 yards per play. With triple-revenge on the brain, that stop unit will be fired up tonight.
Let's play a revved up and motivated Miami-O team, minus the points.
2* MIAMI, OHIO
Philadelphia +118 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Panthers return home from a successful four-game trip here that saw them win in Montreal, Ottawa and New York (Rangers). The Panthers lone loss on said trip was in Toronto. The Panthers are now a game over .500 at 10-9 but we?re not buying any of it. The Panthers continue to get outplayed by a wide margin almost every time they take the ice. Against Montreal, they were outshot 37-24 and won in extra time. When they defeated Ottawa 4-1, they were outshot 40-23 and out-chanced 38-18. Against the Rangers this past Sunday, Florida had six scoring chances and won 3-2 in extra time. We?re now going to pay more attention to the Panthers when they don?t get lucky, like when they were smoked in Toronto 6-1 between those three victories. The Panthers are getting most of their production from players that nobody has heard of like Jonathan Marchessault, Colton Sceviour and Denis Malgin to name a few. Jason Demers is the sixth leading scorer on this group! The Panthers rank 27th in scoring chances. They?re an average team whose chances of losing are greater than their chances of winning and when they?re favored against a superior team like they are here, we are going to step in almost every time.
By contrast, Philadelphia is coming off a 3-0 loss to Tampa Bay in which they allowed just 18 shots on net while firing away 32 of their own. The Flyers have badly outshot, out-chanced and outplayed four of their past five opponents, which includes firing away 36 shots on a stingy Wild team. Philly has also taken two minor penalties or less in four straight so a dedication to discipline or staying out of the box appears to be a point of emphasis. Meanwhile, the Flyers have drawn five penalties or more three times in their past eight games and four penalties or more five times. It?s highly unlikely that the Flyers get outplayed here. They are a top Cirsi for team and the numbers strongly suggest that Florida is the inferior team by a wide margin. As long as there is not a big discrepancy in goaltenders? performances here, we should be in position to cash this one.
