07:00 PM CBB [719] Villanova -12.5 -150 (B+2)
07:00 PM CBB [726] Virginia Commonwealth -3-155 (B+2)
07:30 PM CBB [728] TOTAL u125.5 -150 (B+2) (Syracuse vrs Wisconsin)
10:00 PM CBB [745] Pacific +10.5 -150 (B+2)
08:05 PM NHL [62] Winnipeg Jets -140
08:35 PM NHL [64] Chicago Blackhawks -121
10:05 PM NHL [71] Minnesota Wild -142
10:05 PM NHL [74] TOTAL u5+100 (Arizona Coyotes vrs San Jose Sharks)
07:35 PM NBA [703] Los Angeles Clippers -8-150 (B+2)
1 unit bet pays 134 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Iowa @ Notre Dame
Pick: Under 156
Iowa's offense has been streaky, losing two in a row including scoring 41 points against Virginia. It was the fourth straight time they've gone UNDER the total when facing an ACC team and they face another outstanding one here. This is a veteran Notre Dame team playing great defense, undefeated, allowing 66 and 60 points the last two games. Notre Dame upended Northwestern 70-66 in the Legend Classic last Tuesday going UNDER the total. The Irish are 8-3 UNDER the total at home, as well as 10-3 UNDER as a favorite.
Williams & Mary +1
Central Michigan is going to miss their top 3 players from last year. The Chippewas got a nice transfer pick up in Marcus Keene, but just lack overall depth to hang with a very deep and talented Tribe roster. William and Mary won this matchup last season on the Tribes home court and I just don?t think anything changes tonight with Fowler, Simons and Simmons gone from last year?s squad. It?s just too many points off the board that I don?t think can be made up by the roll players for CMU tonight.
Murray St at Southern Illinois
Play: Over 146.5
Two years ago, Murray State boasted one of most efficient offenses in the country thanks to a host of veterans and point guard Cameron Payne who is currently in the NBA. The Racers played an up-tempo game and routinely produced 80+ points against comparable competition. Following the departure of the aforementioned talent and head coach Steve Prohm, Murray suffered through a rebuilding year where they finished 17-14. New head coach Matt McMahon was forced to adjust the team's philosophers, most notably a much slower offense. Through six games, it looks as if the Racers have returned to a faster brand of basketball as their offensive possessions are over two seconds faster compared to last season. It's resulted in a number of high scoring games: 143, 168, 170, 159, 155, and 145. Southern Illinois head coach Barry Hinson has been vocal about his guard-heavy team playing at a faster clip this season. The Salukis ran up and down against Wright State, Arkansas, and SIU Edwardsville but head into tonight have played back-to-back lower scoring games against Mount St. Mary's and Minnesota. Back at home against a willing opponent, I'd look for SIU to return to a more up-tempo attack. Note that last year's meeting featured 75 possessions with SIU winning at Murray, 88-73. The total of that game closed 141 so there's been an obvious adjustment. That said, expect 72+ possessions with a good chance to hit 150+.
Iowa vs. Notre Dame
Pick: Iowa
For the second time this year, Iowa comes off an outright loss as a favorite. The first was to Seton Hall, in Iowa City, 91-83 as 1.5-pt chalk. They responded by destroying UT Rio Grande Valley the next time out, 95-67. Off a 100-92 loss to Memphis Saturday, the task will be tougher this time around as they travel to South Bend.
Notre Dame is 6-0 SU, but Iowa marks their most difficult opponent to date. The Fighting Irish did beat both Colorado and Northwestern in Brooklyn last week, but those games were decided by a total of 10 pts. Little can be derived from a weekend tuneup vs. Chicago State. For the record, the Irish are just 4-10 ATS after holding their previous opponent to 60 pts or less. Notre Dame's ACC rival Virginia may have held Iowa in check offensively, but the Irish aren't the Cavaliers on the defensive end.
These teams played LY w/ Notre Dame winning by six on a neutral court (were -1.5). With this being a home game this year, the asking price is obviously higher. Iowa shot only 37.9% in that game overall and just 25% from three-point range. They'll shoot better tonight. I say that because Peter Jok, 2nd in the country in scoring at 29.6 PPG, comes off a 42-point effort vs. Memphis. That was a game the Hawkeyes led w/ 15 mins to go. Were it not for 18 turnovers, one has to think the result would have been different. Take the points here.
My free winner for Tuesday night is on the Villanova Wildcats, as I love the defending National Champs to dismantle the Pennsylvania Quakers in Big 5 play.
The Wildcats take the court after a much-needed break for Thanksgiving, and bring a perfect 6-0 mark with them.
Ranked second in the nation, you have to be impressed with how well the defending champs have played without starting guard Phil Booth.
Senior Josh Hart, a preseason Associated Press All-American, recently posted his first double-double of the campaign, and comes in averaging 18.2 points per game through six outings.
After playing six games in 13 days, then taking off a couple days to enjoy Thanksgiving, before practicing on Saturday, look for a re-energized Villanova team to roll here.
5* VILLANOVA
Michigan State at Duke
Play: Duke -10.5
The last time the Michigan State Spartans and Duke Blue Devils collided on the hardwood, Coach K?s kids punched their tickets to the 2015 National Championship Game by ousting Sparty 81-61 in the Final Four. While nowhere near as much will be on the line in this one, each side will no doubt be going all out to help its conference win the Commissioner?s Cup in this year?s Big Ten/ACC Challenge.
While Duke hasn?t been great from downtown to start the season, the Spartans have had major issues defending the 3-ball with it ranked #158. On the flipside, the Blue Devils have only allowed the opposition to convert just over 25% of its long range shots. The 3-pointer has been a major source of points for MSU with it averaging 27.9 points per game from long range. If Duke is able to limit them from deep, scoring the basketball could become a major issue for the visitors with the Blue Devils allowing just over 63 points per game.
The Spartans already failed their biggest test of the season against a young but very talented Kentucky team. That game occurred at a neutral venue. I?m not sure Bridges and company are ready for what awaits them with the ?Cameron Crazies? ready to wreak havoc from the opening tip. MSU is going to be pretty darn good the closer we get to March, but I don?t foresee them being able to stand toe-to-toe with the Dookies on Tuesday night.
Syracuse at Wisconsin
Play: Under 124.5
The Orange have been getting it done at the defensive end of the court. Their 2-3 zone has limited the opposition to an average of just 54.8 points per game and a 32 percent success rate from the field; each stat ranks out at #4 in the country. It?s also outrebounded its opposition by 9.0 rebounds per game (# 22).
These teams? last five games have combined to average just 125.6 PPG. Not surprisingly, the under is a perfect 5-0 in those contests with each unable to even threaten the closing total. Possessions will be hard to come by in this tilt with Syracuse averaging less than 70 per game and Wiscy checking in at 67.0 per game. The scoreboard operators won?t be getting much work in with each of these clubs slowing the game down to a crawl.
Wiscy took last year?s meeting in the Carrier Dome by a 66-58 final count. Only 124 points hit the board in that contest and it took an overtime session to get it there. Still, it combined to go under the 130 point total. So long as another overtime isn?t in the cards, another low scorer is highly likely.
Though the Saint Louis Billikens come into their game against the Samford Bulldogs just 2-3 on the season, the mismatch is apparent when you take a look at the programs.
Saint Louis is in after last week's Men Who Speak Up Main Event tournament here in Las Vegas, where the Billikens hung tough with BYU, trailing by just five with 10 minutes left. Granted, the Cougars pulled away to win by 30, with the 92-62 victory, but against Alabama two days later, the Billikens led by nine points with five minutes left. They lost that game by 5, eventually losing 62-57.
Time to take out frustrations, and Samford is the patsy. And this is a great spot for Saint Louis, which will take full advantage of a tired Bulldogs team that is in the midst of a busy schedule. This will be their fifth game in nine days.
Lay the low chalk with the Billikens here.
Samford vs. St. Louis
Play: Samford +2?
I'm not convinced in St. Louis as a basketball team and their only two wins are against Eastern Illinois and Southern Utah. St. Louis has struggled to score with three games of 65 points or less. Samford is back on the road after a tough multiple OT loss to Nicholls State. The Bulldogs already have wins at San Diego and Campbell this season and played New Mexico State and Cincy reasonably tough. They are 15-3 ATS the last three years in non-conference games and 11-2 ATS in November. STL has covered just 11 of their last 30 home games. I think the road team has a good shot in this one.
In the Sights, Tuesday hoops?
Now that +7 has returned in the morning trading session the value point is available again to get behind #763 San Jose State (10:00 Eastern), backing a team that will be the epitome of a ?tough out? on the road this season, especially given that the Spartans bring no sizzle to the marketplace, which helps create the value. And with tonight?s setting also a bit unique there is something else the markets have missed.
SJS going 9-22 in Dave Wojcik?s third season won?t have bells ringing in many places, but that equaled the number of wins in his first two seasons on the job combined. There was finally enough depth to compete for the full 40 minutes, and there was the kind of basketball soundness that led to a 6-3 ATS log as a MWC road underdog. Now the Spartans have opened 2-0 ATS in the road dog role this season, including that 88-76 outright win at Washington State on Saturday. To some this may now look like a difficult spot, two road games in three days, but I believe it is actually the opposite.
Wojcik?s team will have been settled in to the area for quite some time now ? the Washington State/Idaho campuses are only seven miles apart, so there is no travel involved. That means playing with no loss of physical energy at all, and also working around the usual road issues of staying in a new hotel for the first time ? there are no changes here. Now there is an added confidence behind the teamwork that won so convincingly on Sunday, with no player going more than 30 minutes, and the Spartans winning the rebounding battle by a dozen, while only turning the ball over seven times. That kind of sound tactical basketball has them in the hunt all the way here, against a favorite that will be hard-pressed to get anything easy, and in front of what will be a far from intimidating crowd - the Vandals drew 474 fans for their last home game vs. South Dakota State. Seriously.
Cavaliers at Bucks
Pick: Under
Defending champion Cleveland knows how to play defense, 7-1-1 under the total on the road. The Under is also 9-4-1 in the Cavaliers last 14 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Milwaukee plays its best defense at home and the under is 20-6 following a straight up win. The Under is also 13-6-1 in the Bucks last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
Milwaukee Bucks +7.5
This is another flat spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers. They were flat on Sunday against the Philadelphia 76ers on the road and were fortunate to escape with a 112-108 victory as 11-point favorites. Now they are laying 7.5 points against a much better Bucks team that is 5-4 at home and winning by 3.8 points per game. The Cavs have huge games ahead against the Clippers on Thursday and Bulls on Friday. I think they could be caught looking ahead to those contests. The Cavs will get a big effort from the Bucks because they are the defending champs. And the Bucks have played two of the best teams in the NBA very tough recently. They only lost by 3 at home to the Warriors and by 6 at home to the Raptors within the past 10 days. The Cavs are 1-8 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 days rest.
Pistons vs. Hornets
Play: Hornets -3
Detroit is 1-8 both straight up and ATS on the road with an average losing margin of nearly 15 points in the losses. The Pistons are ranked #24 in the league scoring 97.5 points per game overall and #20 in field goal percentage (.443). Detroit got blown out at Oklahoma City 106-88 on Saturday when even its defense had a bad night allowing the Thunder to shoot 50.6 percent while the Pistons made just one of 19 three-point shot attempts (5.3 percent). Detroit is 1-4 ATS its last five games in Charlotte and the home team has covered the spread the last five meetings. The Hornets beat Memphis 104-85 on Monday night as Kemba Walker scored 21 points and the Grizzlies were held to 40.4 percent shooting. Charlotte has won two straight after losing in overtime at New York on Friday. None of the Charlotte players played more than 34 minutes last night.
My free pick for tonight is on the Los Angeles Lakers, plus the points against the New Orleans Pelicans.
After slumbering through a 1-4 slide, culminating with back-to-back losses to the Golden State Warriors, the Lakers responded Sunday with a 109-94 win over the Atlanta Hawks.
I'm still convinced this 8-8 squad will challenge for an 8-seed in the Western Conference, while I'm not so sure the Pelicans will be anywhere close to the postseason come April.
New Orleans returns home after losing road games in Portland and Dallas, falling by 15 and 10, respectively. I love Anthony Davis. I don't trust the Pelicans' defense against teams like this.
I think the Lakers will press the offensive issue and will challenge the Pelicans long enough to pull off the outright win.
New Orleans Pelicans -5.5
The New Orleans Pelicans looked to have gotten it together with a four-game winning streak. But then they went on the road and have lost back-to-back road games to the Blazers and Mavericks. They return home here and the price is right to back them as only 5-point favorites.
The Pelicans are still 4-2 since Jrue Holiday returned to the lineup. Their wins came by 12 points over Portland, by 5 over Charlotte, by 18 at Atlanta and by 21 over Minnesota. They are now scoring 110.7 points per game at home, and their defense is playing much better of late, holding five of their last seven opponents to 101 points or fewer.
The Los Angeles Lakers are certainly improved this season, but they are in a tricky spot here. They have played a gauntlet of a schedule with six straight games against the Spurs, Bulls, Thunder, Warriors (twice) and Hawks. They are coming off a big home win over Atlanta, and now they're primed for a letdown spot here.
Plus, the Lakers are without arguably their best player in D'Angelo Russell, and fellow starter Julius Randle is questionable with a hip injury. And the Pelicans are certainly going to be out for revenge from a 99-126 loss to the Lakers in their first meeting this season.
The Lakers are 12-23 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 14-26 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog over the last two years. The Lakers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.
Hurricanes vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -170
A solid spot for NY Tonight as they look to put an end to a 4 game home losing streak. They have revenge in this game a role in which they have won 7 of the last 9. The Rangers have won 21 of the last 30 on Tuesdays and 8 of the last 10 in this series. Carolina is 0-6 on the road when the total is 5 or less. Look for the Rangers to take this one.
Canadiens vs. Ducks
Play: Ducks -115
Given the venue, I feel this is very fair price on the Ducks. While the Canadiens have indeed played very well to start the season, the majority of their success has come at Montreal. When playing on the road, they're a mediocre 4-4. A closer look reveals that they've been outscored by an average of 3.2 to 2.5 in those games, too. On the other hand, the Ducks are outscoring visiting teams by a 3.0 to 2.4 margin here at Anaheim.
Both teams should be fresh. Each had the past two days off and neither plays again tomorrow. That figures to favor Anaheim. Montreal is a modest 22-21 (-3.6) the past 2+ seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. During that same stretch, the Ducks are a profitable 27-15 (+7.1) when playing with two day's rest in between games.
The Ducks were laying -240 when they last hosted the Habs. (Anaheim won 3-2.) In fact, the Ducks were even laying -175 the last time that they played at Montreal. While things have obviously changed since last spring, they haven't changed enough to warrant such a dramatic drop in price.
Tampa Bay at Columbus
Play: Columbus -123
The Blue Jackets have been playing great hockey so far this year and it seems like coach John Tortorella has them playing the type of hockey he brought to the New York Rangers some years ago. They have solid goaltending with Sergei Bobrovsky just like Torts had with Henrik Lundquist and they are playing total team first hockey which is a trademark of Tortorella teams ( with the exception of Vancouver the one year). As for the Lightning they have been really hurt by injuries as superstar Steven Stamkos is out again and now for tonights game LW Ondrej Palat and D Anton Stralman will most likely be also sidelined. The Blue Jackets on Friday night really manhandled the Lightning in Tampa Bay with a 5-3 victory. We see more of the same tonight. At the time of this writing, Columbus was a minus 123 favorite and we are more than happy to lay this small number considering the value with the Blue Jackets tonight. Backing our selection is the fact that Columbus are 7-2 in their last 9 home games.
Nashville at Colorado
Play: Nashville -135
Two Central Division foes face off tonight in the Mile High City as the Colorado Avalanche host the Nashville Predators. Both clubs are sitting near the bottom of the division with the home team Avs dead-last at 19 points; four points behind Nashville. The Predators however are a team that is trending upwards as of late winning seven of their last 10 contests after a slow start to the season. Veteran netminder Pekka Rinne has been hot between the pipes winning seven of his last eight starts and posting a 1.98 goals-against on the short season. Rinne also holds a 16-7-2 lifetime record versus Colorado with a 2.28 gaa and .914 save percentage. The Avalanche are last in the division for several reasons, most notably a lack of consistent offense along with allowing opponents to take a ton of shots on goal. Colorado has scored just 44 goals in 20 contests thus far which is second-worst in the NHL. Defensively, the Avs have yielded 30 or more shots in six of their last seven games overall including 40+ in three of their last four. This price is should be a lot higher based on my power ratings which means Nashville holds value as the moderately price road chalk.
PREDATORS AT AVALANCHE
PLAY: PREDATORS -135
At first glance, this line seems high, considering Nashville has won only two road games all season. But I like the chances of the Predators grabbing two points tonight as they challenge the Avalanche.
First off, the Preds have gotten hot. They?re on a 7-3 run over their last ten games, and two of the losses are the two games that goalie Pekka Rinne didn?t play. This is a good hockey team and after muddling their way through the early portion of the schedule, it definitely appears that the Predators are starting to get it together.
Colorado is a bad hockey team. The Avalanche are absolutely feeble on offense, having scored a meager 44 goals in 20 games to date. Goalie Calvin Pickard has actually been outstanding for the Avs and he?s basically keeping them in games when he gets the call. Pickard is already confirmed as the starter for this game. His presence worries me a bit, but very little else does about this Avalanche team.
But even with Pickard in goal, I prefer the Nashville side here. The Preds own a big special teams advantage based on recent form and they?re a team that sure looks like it?s heating up. Nashville pretty well dominated Colorado in the one prior meeting this season, and I would not be surprised to see a similar result tonight. I?ll spot the price on the money line with Nashville.
Panthers vs. Blackhawks
Play: Blackhawks -140
Florida just fired their coach, Gallant ,because of so called philisophical differences with management and now the inconsistent Panthers will try to find a way to move forward and upwards. However, for now I believe, they do not have the flow to deal with a Chicago Blackhawks team that plays well at home. Note: Blackhawks are 56-16 in their last 72 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Blackhawks won eight straight against the Panthers before dropping a 4-0 decision last January and Im betting they notch the W here tonight.
Chicago is 33-13 ATS L/46 against lower tier defensive teams - allowing 29 shots or more on goal, and converting 17% or more of power play opportunities . Panthers are 19-41 in their last 60 vs. Central.Panthers are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.The Blackhawks are 8-1-2 at home this season. The Panthers are 4-6-1 on the road.
CHICAGO -? +140 over Florida
Regulation only. Starting goalie Corey Crawford has a terrific .929 even-strength save percentage for his career and may be the league's most under-appreciated goalie. He is currently boasting an absurd .955 mark. Spanning out a bit, some of the Blackhawks' issues have been covered up by their crazy-good goaltending. They rank 16th in goals for per 60 minutes at even strength, and 11th in Corsi for percentage. Now that Jonathan Toews is out and Chicago returns home from a seven-game trip and Florida has the ?first game with a new coach? angle working, the price on the Blackhawks here is deflated, which makes us instant buyers. Chicago can compensate for the loss of Toews with an abundance of skilled forwards. We?ll discuss the Blackhawks more at a later time but for now, this one is all about fading the Panthers.
The first game for a new coach is one that usually provides a boost of energy but this one might have the opposite effect. Gerald Gallant was a player?s coach. Gallant is a traditional hockey guy. He?s done it at every level. He?s paid his dues. His credo is to keep it simple, work hard, and do things the right way. Players absolutely love him. He was fired on Sunday following an offseason of major roster turnover despite a division title. He was fired while keeping his team afloat with significant injuries, including Jonathan Huberdeau, who is out months with a leg injury. He was fired after guiding his team to a 6-4 record in its past 10, and keeping them within two points of a playoff spot.Making it worse are the photos of Gallant waiting for a cab outside the arena in Carolina. Gallant was kicked to the curb to wait for his own ride home.Hockey has a culture of doing things the right way and this wasn?t it. Gallant, at the very least, deserved a ride to wherever he wanted to go next and that?s the absolute least. Panthers? management will pay a price for the treatment of Gallant and it could easily come over the next few games. The Panthers have the right to hire and fire whomever they like. They?re not wrong in making a change but the biggest mistake in this move was the way it was handled. You cannot take the human element out of anything and the way that Gallant was let go cannot be sitting well with anyone in that dressing room. A big response on the ice is not the way you show disapproval and we trust that?s what?s in store for this game tonight. We?re betting the Panthers have a bad reaction (poor performance) to the way Gallant was treated.
Carolina +158 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The Carolina Hurricanes are once again among the puck possession leaders. It is rare to see them get outplayed and they also dominate other areas as well. They are the best face-off team in the NHL, meaning they are usually controlling things after the puck drops, which happens 40 to 50 times a game on average. The ?Canes also rank #1 in penalty killing. On defense, however, is where the Hurricanes really shine. They've been able to find diamonds in the rough with later-round picks, and have built up an impressive amount of defensive depth throughout their system. Too much emphasis is being put on Jordan Staal?s injury here and while Staal will be missed, the ?Canes system is built around every player contributing. This wager is now twofold in that Carolina should not be taking back prices like this against anyone and the Rangers cannot be priced in this range against them.
The Rangers started off as a really strong puck-possession team but it was short-lived after coaches had film of what the Rangers were trying to do. Over the last month, New York?s puck possession numbers are even worse than last year, where they went into the playoffs and were absolutely destroyed by the Penguins. The Rangers are now 15-8 and have the second most points in the league. We even saw one publication last week post the Rangers #1 in their power rankings. That is further proof of results having a bigger influence than performance. Calling the Rangers the best team in the NHL is embarrassing to that publication. The Rangers are the luckiest team in the NHL in the most luck-driven sport of the major four (hockey, basketball, baseball and football). In no other sport do teams get dominated on a nightly basis and emerge victorious. This past Friday, Philadelphia outshot the Rangers 42-23, out-chanced them, 24-12 and had a dominating puck possession edge of 63% to 37% but New York won, 3-2. Prior to back-to-back games against Pittsburgh last week, the Rangers lost to Columbus and Florida. Prior to that, they defeated Vancouver but were outshot 38-25. In their recent 3-1 win over Edmonton last week, the Rangers were outshot 37-29. The list goes on of games in which the Rangers have been outplayed and out-chanced and ended up winning. Their 12.4 percent even-strength shooting percentage is also a major outlier, so they?re likely in for some serious regression when that lucky number inevitably comes down. As a big favorite here, the Rangers will very likely get out-played. That alone prompts us to step in.
Buffalo +130 over OTTAWA
OT included. Past the quarter mark of the season already and the Senators are without question this year?s biggest surprise so far with 14 victories in 22 games. Ottawa is also hot right now with four consecutive wins, which includes a 4-3 victory in Montreal and a 2-0 victory over New York on Sunday. However, Craig Anderson has been playing out of his mind and the numbers say that regression is inevitable. In those four aforementioned wins, Ottawa posted 23, 26, 24 and 20 shots on net respectively while surrendering 33 or more or three of the four. In 15 of their 22 games this season, the Sens have lost the puck possession battle and also lost the high quality scoring chances battle. Ottawa is not a weak team that should be losing every night, as they do some things very well but they are not a top-5 team and winning games is not sustainable when you?re the second best team on the ice so often.
It really does not matter how Jack Eichel performs here in his season debut because his mere presence on the ice is worth so much more. Eichel is an impact player for sure but he?s also a team leader that has earned the respect and admiration of every single player on that Sabres bench. Buffalo has suffered without their leader but they have been competitive and figure to have a little extra jump in their step here. With Eichel, the Sabres are going to be dramatically better and we can think of all the possibilities that give them a fast-forwarded result. O?Reilly should continue to be a Corsi hound while producing points. Sam Reinhart is starting to play like the player he looked like at the World Junior Championships. Rasmus Ristolainen is starting to harness the kind of talent that had people at the Stanley Cup final thinking he could develop like Tampa Bay?s Victor Hedman. Evander Kane makes a difference every time he?s on the ice. Not many folks watch the Sabres but the entertainment value should go through the roof with Eichel back and the other players picking up their game but more importantly, their stock is so low that the value on them has not been this good in a very long time. Keep your eye on the Sabres, as there is great profit potential and it likely starts here.
Montreal +104 over ANAHEIM
OT included. We?re not going to go into a lot of details here because it?s not necessary. Goaltending decides more games than anything else in the NHL and that means Carey Price always gives the Canadiens a better chance of winning than losing. The Habs are solid all around but Price pushes them to a level that is hard to match. The explanation for Montreal?s success may be as simple as the return and high-end play of Price, but there are some people in hockey who believe the subtraction of P.K. Subban has been a real positive for that dressing room. Shea Weber has been everything the Canadiens had hoped for.
The coaching change from Bruce Boudreau to Randy Carlyle has not been a good one for the Ducks and things might get worse. Anaheim is now two games under .500 at 10-12. There is always player movement and line juggling. The constant tweaks that Carlyle tries to make are taking a toll and so are the trade rumors. Randy Carlyle is not coaching material. He fluked a Stanley Cup with Anaheim a few years ago but it was not his doing; he was just the beneficiary of landing there at the right time. While we like the personnel of the Ducks, we have never liked Carlyle will never do anything significant again under him. This is one game in which of course anything can happen but give us Price versus Gibson 100% of the time when taking back a tag and give us the dressing room in a much better frame of mind. Incidentally, Anaheim is 1-6 versus top-10 teams.
Arizona +201 over SAN JOSE
OT included. The Sharks are indeed capable of repeating as Western Conference champs but that does not mean they can?t be beat and it does not mean that they?re worthy of prices like this on a Tuesday night game in late November. For one, the Sharks are scoring goals at a rate not nearly high enough to warrant these prices and they?re not in great form either with a 3-4 record over their past seven games. Coming off a long, grinding postseason run, San Jose will be flat in several games this year both at home and on the road and so the reward here is greater than the risk.
Quietly, the Coyotes are heating up by picking up points in five of their last six games. Mike Smith has been playing at a high level since returning from an injury and as long as you get good goaltending, you always have a chance to win in this league. The ?Yotes are creating plenty of chances too with 36 shots on net or more and 24 scoring chances or more in three of their last five games. Arizona possesses an outstanding group of puck moving defensemen. New additions to the defense Jakob Chychrun and Tony DeAngelo look promising and they join two other great defensemen in Michael Stone and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. There are pieces here to compete every single night and now that their confidence is higher and they?re playing well after a slow start, we?re not going to pass up prices like this on the Coyotes when their chances of winning are legit. Overlay.
07:00 PM CBB [726] Virginia Commonwealth -3-155 (B+2)
07:30 PM CBB [728] TOTAL u125.5 -150 (B+2) (Syracuse vrs Wisconsin)
10:00 PM CBB [745] Pacific +10.5 -150 (B+2)
08:05 PM NHL [62] Winnipeg Jets -140
08:35 PM NHL [64] Chicago Blackhawks -121
10:05 PM NHL [71] Minnesota Wild -142
10:05 PM NHL [74] TOTAL u5+100 (Arizona Coyotes vrs San Jose Sharks)
07:35 PM NBA [703] Los Angeles Clippers -8-150 (B+2)
1 unit bet pays 134 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Iowa @ Notre Dame
Pick: Under 156
Iowa's offense has been streaky, losing two in a row including scoring 41 points against Virginia. It was the fourth straight time they've gone UNDER the total when facing an ACC team and they face another outstanding one here. This is a veteran Notre Dame team playing great defense, undefeated, allowing 66 and 60 points the last two games. Notre Dame upended Northwestern 70-66 in the Legend Classic last Tuesday going UNDER the total. The Irish are 8-3 UNDER the total at home, as well as 10-3 UNDER as a favorite.
Williams & Mary +1
Central Michigan is going to miss their top 3 players from last year. The Chippewas got a nice transfer pick up in Marcus Keene, but just lack overall depth to hang with a very deep and talented Tribe roster. William and Mary won this matchup last season on the Tribes home court and I just don?t think anything changes tonight with Fowler, Simons and Simmons gone from last year?s squad. It?s just too many points off the board that I don?t think can be made up by the roll players for CMU tonight.
Murray St at Southern Illinois
Play: Over 146.5
Two years ago, Murray State boasted one of most efficient offenses in the country thanks to a host of veterans and point guard Cameron Payne who is currently in the NBA. The Racers played an up-tempo game and routinely produced 80+ points against comparable competition. Following the departure of the aforementioned talent and head coach Steve Prohm, Murray suffered through a rebuilding year where they finished 17-14. New head coach Matt McMahon was forced to adjust the team's philosophers, most notably a much slower offense. Through six games, it looks as if the Racers have returned to a faster brand of basketball as their offensive possessions are over two seconds faster compared to last season. It's resulted in a number of high scoring games: 143, 168, 170, 159, 155, and 145. Southern Illinois head coach Barry Hinson has been vocal about his guard-heavy team playing at a faster clip this season. The Salukis ran up and down against Wright State, Arkansas, and SIU Edwardsville but head into tonight have played back-to-back lower scoring games against Mount St. Mary's and Minnesota. Back at home against a willing opponent, I'd look for SIU to return to a more up-tempo attack. Note that last year's meeting featured 75 possessions with SIU winning at Murray, 88-73. The total of that game closed 141 so there's been an obvious adjustment. That said, expect 72+ possessions with a good chance to hit 150+.
Iowa vs. Notre Dame
Pick: Iowa
For the second time this year, Iowa comes off an outright loss as a favorite. The first was to Seton Hall, in Iowa City, 91-83 as 1.5-pt chalk. They responded by destroying UT Rio Grande Valley the next time out, 95-67. Off a 100-92 loss to Memphis Saturday, the task will be tougher this time around as they travel to South Bend.
Notre Dame is 6-0 SU, but Iowa marks their most difficult opponent to date. The Fighting Irish did beat both Colorado and Northwestern in Brooklyn last week, but those games were decided by a total of 10 pts. Little can be derived from a weekend tuneup vs. Chicago State. For the record, the Irish are just 4-10 ATS after holding their previous opponent to 60 pts or less. Notre Dame's ACC rival Virginia may have held Iowa in check offensively, but the Irish aren't the Cavaliers on the defensive end.
These teams played LY w/ Notre Dame winning by six on a neutral court (were -1.5). With this being a home game this year, the asking price is obviously higher. Iowa shot only 37.9% in that game overall and just 25% from three-point range. They'll shoot better tonight. I say that because Peter Jok, 2nd in the country in scoring at 29.6 PPG, comes off a 42-point effort vs. Memphis. That was a game the Hawkeyes led w/ 15 mins to go. Were it not for 18 turnovers, one has to think the result would have been different. Take the points here.
My free winner for Tuesday night is on the Villanova Wildcats, as I love the defending National Champs to dismantle the Pennsylvania Quakers in Big 5 play.
The Wildcats take the court after a much-needed break for Thanksgiving, and bring a perfect 6-0 mark with them.
Ranked second in the nation, you have to be impressed with how well the defending champs have played without starting guard Phil Booth.
Senior Josh Hart, a preseason Associated Press All-American, recently posted his first double-double of the campaign, and comes in averaging 18.2 points per game through six outings.
After playing six games in 13 days, then taking off a couple days to enjoy Thanksgiving, before practicing on Saturday, look for a re-energized Villanova team to roll here.
5* VILLANOVA
Michigan State at Duke
Play: Duke -10.5
The last time the Michigan State Spartans and Duke Blue Devils collided on the hardwood, Coach K?s kids punched their tickets to the 2015 National Championship Game by ousting Sparty 81-61 in the Final Four. While nowhere near as much will be on the line in this one, each side will no doubt be going all out to help its conference win the Commissioner?s Cup in this year?s Big Ten/ACC Challenge.
While Duke hasn?t been great from downtown to start the season, the Spartans have had major issues defending the 3-ball with it ranked #158. On the flipside, the Blue Devils have only allowed the opposition to convert just over 25% of its long range shots. The 3-pointer has been a major source of points for MSU with it averaging 27.9 points per game from long range. If Duke is able to limit them from deep, scoring the basketball could become a major issue for the visitors with the Blue Devils allowing just over 63 points per game.
The Spartans already failed their biggest test of the season against a young but very talented Kentucky team. That game occurred at a neutral venue. I?m not sure Bridges and company are ready for what awaits them with the ?Cameron Crazies? ready to wreak havoc from the opening tip. MSU is going to be pretty darn good the closer we get to March, but I don?t foresee them being able to stand toe-to-toe with the Dookies on Tuesday night.
Syracuse at Wisconsin
Play: Under 124.5
The Orange have been getting it done at the defensive end of the court. Their 2-3 zone has limited the opposition to an average of just 54.8 points per game and a 32 percent success rate from the field; each stat ranks out at #4 in the country. It?s also outrebounded its opposition by 9.0 rebounds per game (# 22).
These teams? last five games have combined to average just 125.6 PPG. Not surprisingly, the under is a perfect 5-0 in those contests with each unable to even threaten the closing total. Possessions will be hard to come by in this tilt with Syracuse averaging less than 70 per game and Wiscy checking in at 67.0 per game. The scoreboard operators won?t be getting much work in with each of these clubs slowing the game down to a crawl.
Wiscy took last year?s meeting in the Carrier Dome by a 66-58 final count. Only 124 points hit the board in that contest and it took an overtime session to get it there. Still, it combined to go under the 130 point total. So long as another overtime isn?t in the cards, another low scorer is highly likely.
Though the Saint Louis Billikens come into their game against the Samford Bulldogs just 2-3 on the season, the mismatch is apparent when you take a look at the programs.
Saint Louis is in after last week's Men Who Speak Up Main Event tournament here in Las Vegas, where the Billikens hung tough with BYU, trailing by just five with 10 minutes left. Granted, the Cougars pulled away to win by 30, with the 92-62 victory, but against Alabama two days later, the Billikens led by nine points with five minutes left. They lost that game by 5, eventually losing 62-57.
Time to take out frustrations, and Samford is the patsy. And this is a great spot for Saint Louis, which will take full advantage of a tired Bulldogs team that is in the midst of a busy schedule. This will be their fifth game in nine days.
Lay the low chalk with the Billikens here.
Samford vs. St. Louis
Play: Samford +2?
I'm not convinced in St. Louis as a basketball team and their only two wins are against Eastern Illinois and Southern Utah. St. Louis has struggled to score with three games of 65 points or less. Samford is back on the road after a tough multiple OT loss to Nicholls State. The Bulldogs already have wins at San Diego and Campbell this season and played New Mexico State and Cincy reasonably tough. They are 15-3 ATS the last three years in non-conference games and 11-2 ATS in November. STL has covered just 11 of their last 30 home games. I think the road team has a good shot in this one.
In the Sights, Tuesday hoops?
Now that +7 has returned in the morning trading session the value point is available again to get behind #763 San Jose State (10:00 Eastern), backing a team that will be the epitome of a ?tough out? on the road this season, especially given that the Spartans bring no sizzle to the marketplace, which helps create the value. And with tonight?s setting also a bit unique there is something else the markets have missed.
SJS going 9-22 in Dave Wojcik?s third season won?t have bells ringing in many places, but that equaled the number of wins in his first two seasons on the job combined. There was finally enough depth to compete for the full 40 minutes, and there was the kind of basketball soundness that led to a 6-3 ATS log as a MWC road underdog. Now the Spartans have opened 2-0 ATS in the road dog role this season, including that 88-76 outright win at Washington State on Saturday. To some this may now look like a difficult spot, two road games in three days, but I believe it is actually the opposite.
Wojcik?s team will have been settled in to the area for quite some time now ? the Washington State/Idaho campuses are only seven miles apart, so there is no travel involved. That means playing with no loss of physical energy at all, and also working around the usual road issues of staying in a new hotel for the first time ? there are no changes here. Now there is an added confidence behind the teamwork that won so convincingly on Sunday, with no player going more than 30 minutes, and the Spartans winning the rebounding battle by a dozen, while only turning the ball over seven times. That kind of sound tactical basketball has them in the hunt all the way here, against a favorite that will be hard-pressed to get anything easy, and in front of what will be a far from intimidating crowd - the Vandals drew 474 fans for their last home game vs. South Dakota State. Seriously.
Cavaliers at Bucks
Pick: Under
Defending champion Cleveland knows how to play defense, 7-1-1 under the total on the road. The Under is also 9-4-1 in the Cavaliers last 14 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Milwaukee plays its best defense at home and the under is 20-6 following a straight up win. The Under is also 13-6-1 in the Bucks last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
Milwaukee Bucks +7.5
This is another flat spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers. They were flat on Sunday against the Philadelphia 76ers on the road and were fortunate to escape with a 112-108 victory as 11-point favorites. Now they are laying 7.5 points against a much better Bucks team that is 5-4 at home and winning by 3.8 points per game. The Cavs have huge games ahead against the Clippers on Thursday and Bulls on Friday. I think they could be caught looking ahead to those contests. The Cavs will get a big effort from the Bucks because they are the defending champs. And the Bucks have played two of the best teams in the NBA very tough recently. They only lost by 3 at home to the Warriors and by 6 at home to the Raptors within the past 10 days. The Cavs are 1-8 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 days rest.
Pistons vs. Hornets
Play: Hornets -3
Detroit is 1-8 both straight up and ATS on the road with an average losing margin of nearly 15 points in the losses. The Pistons are ranked #24 in the league scoring 97.5 points per game overall and #20 in field goal percentage (.443). Detroit got blown out at Oklahoma City 106-88 on Saturday when even its defense had a bad night allowing the Thunder to shoot 50.6 percent while the Pistons made just one of 19 three-point shot attempts (5.3 percent). Detroit is 1-4 ATS its last five games in Charlotte and the home team has covered the spread the last five meetings. The Hornets beat Memphis 104-85 on Monday night as Kemba Walker scored 21 points and the Grizzlies were held to 40.4 percent shooting. Charlotte has won two straight after losing in overtime at New York on Friday. None of the Charlotte players played more than 34 minutes last night.
My free pick for tonight is on the Los Angeles Lakers, plus the points against the New Orleans Pelicans.
After slumbering through a 1-4 slide, culminating with back-to-back losses to the Golden State Warriors, the Lakers responded Sunday with a 109-94 win over the Atlanta Hawks.
I'm still convinced this 8-8 squad will challenge for an 8-seed in the Western Conference, while I'm not so sure the Pelicans will be anywhere close to the postseason come April.
New Orleans returns home after losing road games in Portland and Dallas, falling by 15 and 10, respectively. I love Anthony Davis. I don't trust the Pelicans' defense against teams like this.
I think the Lakers will press the offensive issue and will challenge the Pelicans long enough to pull off the outright win.
New Orleans Pelicans -5.5
The New Orleans Pelicans looked to have gotten it together with a four-game winning streak. But then they went on the road and have lost back-to-back road games to the Blazers and Mavericks. They return home here and the price is right to back them as only 5-point favorites.
The Pelicans are still 4-2 since Jrue Holiday returned to the lineup. Their wins came by 12 points over Portland, by 5 over Charlotte, by 18 at Atlanta and by 21 over Minnesota. They are now scoring 110.7 points per game at home, and their defense is playing much better of late, holding five of their last seven opponents to 101 points or fewer.
The Los Angeles Lakers are certainly improved this season, but they are in a tricky spot here. They have played a gauntlet of a schedule with six straight games against the Spurs, Bulls, Thunder, Warriors (twice) and Hawks. They are coming off a big home win over Atlanta, and now they're primed for a letdown spot here.
Plus, the Lakers are without arguably their best player in D'Angelo Russell, and fellow starter Julius Randle is questionable with a hip injury. And the Pelicans are certainly going to be out for revenge from a 99-126 loss to the Lakers in their first meeting this season.
The Lakers are 12-23 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 14-26 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog over the last two years. The Lakers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.
Hurricanes vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -170
A solid spot for NY Tonight as they look to put an end to a 4 game home losing streak. They have revenge in this game a role in which they have won 7 of the last 9. The Rangers have won 21 of the last 30 on Tuesdays and 8 of the last 10 in this series. Carolina is 0-6 on the road when the total is 5 or less. Look for the Rangers to take this one.
Canadiens vs. Ducks
Play: Ducks -115
Given the venue, I feel this is very fair price on the Ducks. While the Canadiens have indeed played very well to start the season, the majority of their success has come at Montreal. When playing on the road, they're a mediocre 4-4. A closer look reveals that they've been outscored by an average of 3.2 to 2.5 in those games, too. On the other hand, the Ducks are outscoring visiting teams by a 3.0 to 2.4 margin here at Anaheim.
Both teams should be fresh. Each had the past two days off and neither plays again tomorrow. That figures to favor Anaheim. Montreal is a modest 22-21 (-3.6) the past 2+ seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. During that same stretch, the Ducks are a profitable 27-15 (+7.1) when playing with two day's rest in between games.
The Ducks were laying -240 when they last hosted the Habs. (Anaheim won 3-2.) In fact, the Ducks were even laying -175 the last time that they played at Montreal. While things have obviously changed since last spring, they haven't changed enough to warrant such a dramatic drop in price.
Tampa Bay at Columbus
Play: Columbus -123
The Blue Jackets have been playing great hockey so far this year and it seems like coach John Tortorella has them playing the type of hockey he brought to the New York Rangers some years ago. They have solid goaltending with Sergei Bobrovsky just like Torts had with Henrik Lundquist and they are playing total team first hockey which is a trademark of Tortorella teams ( with the exception of Vancouver the one year). As for the Lightning they have been really hurt by injuries as superstar Steven Stamkos is out again and now for tonights game LW Ondrej Palat and D Anton Stralman will most likely be also sidelined. The Blue Jackets on Friday night really manhandled the Lightning in Tampa Bay with a 5-3 victory. We see more of the same tonight. At the time of this writing, Columbus was a minus 123 favorite and we are more than happy to lay this small number considering the value with the Blue Jackets tonight. Backing our selection is the fact that Columbus are 7-2 in their last 9 home games.
Nashville at Colorado
Play: Nashville -135
Two Central Division foes face off tonight in the Mile High City as the Colorado Avalanche host the Nashville Predators. Both clubs are sitting near the bottom of the division with the home team Avs dead-last at 19 points; four points behind Nashville. The Predators however are a team that is trending upwards as of late winning seven of their last 10 contests after a slow start to the season. Veteran netminder Pekka Rinne has been hot between the pipes winning seven of his last eight starts and posting a 1.98 goals-against on the short season. Rinne also holds a 16-7-2 lifetime record versus Colorado with a 2.28 gaa and .914 save percentage. The Avalanche are last in the division for several reasons, most notably a lack of consistent offense along with allowing opponents to take a ton of shots on goal. Colorado has scored just 44 goals in 20 contests thus far which is second-worst in the NHL. Defensively, the Avs have yielded 30 or more shots in six of their last seven games overall including 40+ in three of their last four. This price is should be a lot higher based on my power ratings which means Nashville holds value as the moderately price road chalk.
PREDATORS AT AVALANCHE
PLAY: PREDATORS -135
At first glance, this line seems high, considering Nashville has won only two road games all season. But I like the chances of the Predators grabbing two points tonight as they challenge the Avalanche.
First off, the Preds have gotten hot. They?re on a 7-3 run over their last ten games, and two of the losses are the two games that goalie Pekka Rinne didn?t play. This is a good hockey team and after muddling their way through the early portion of the schedule, it definitely appears that the Predators are starting to get it together.
Colorado is a bad hockey team. The Avalanche are absolutely feeble on offense, having scored a meager 44 goals in 20 games to date. Goalie Calvin Pickard has actually been outstanding for the Avs and he?s basically keeping them in games when he gets the call. Pickard is already confirmed as the starter for this game. His presence worries me a bit, but very little else does about this Avalanche team.
But even with Pickard in goal, I prefer the Nashville side here. The Preds own a big special teams advantage based on recent form and they?re a team that sure looks like it?s heating up. Nashville pretty well dominated Colorado in the one prior meeting this season, and I would not be surprised to see a similar result tonight. I?ll spot the price on the money line with Nashville.
Panthers vs. Blackhawks
Play: Blackhawks -140
Florida just fired their coach, Gallant ,because of so called philisophical differences with management and now the inconsistent Panthers will try to find a way to move forward and upwards. However, for now I believe, they do not have the flow to deal with a Chicago Blackhawks team that plays well at home. Note: Blackhawks are 56-16 in their last 72 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Blackhawks won eight straight against the Panthers before dropping a 4-0 decision last January and Im betting they notch the W here tonight.
Chicago is 33-13 ATS L/46 against lower tier defensive teams - allowing 29 shots or more on goal, and converting 17% or more of power play opportunities . Panthers are 19-41 in their last 60 vs. Central.Panthers are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.The Blackhawks are 8-1-2 at home this season. The Panthers are 4-6-1 on the road.
CHICAGO -? +140 over Florida
Regulation only. Starting goalie Corey Crawford has a terrific .929 even-strength save percentage for his career and may be the league's most under-appreciated goalie. He is currently boasting an absurd .955 mark. Spanning out a bit, some of the Blackhawks' issues have been covered up by their crazy-good goaltending. They rank 16th in goals for per 60 minutes at even strength, and 11th in Corsi for percentage. Now that Jonathan Toews is out and Chicago returns home from a seven-game trip and Florida has the ?first game with a new coach? angle working, the price on the Blackhawks here is deflated, which makes us instant buyers. Chicago can compensate for the loss of Toews with an abundance of skilled forwards. We?ll discuss the Blackhawks more at a later time but for now, this one is all about fading the Panthers.
The first game for a new coach is one that usually provides a boost of energy but this one might have the opposite effect. Gerald Gallant was a player?s coach. Gallant is a traditional hockey guy. He?s done it at every level. He?s paid his dues. His credo is to keep it simple, work hard, and do things the right way. Players absolutely love him. He was fired on Sunday following an offseason of major roster turnover despite a division title. He was fired while keeping his team afloat with significant injuries, including Jonathan Huberdeau, who is out months with a leg injury. He was fired after guiding his team to a 6-4 record in its past 10, and keeping them within two points of a playoff spot.Making it worse are the photos of Gallant waiting for a cab outside the arena in Carolina. Gallant was kicked to the curb to wait for his own ride home.Hockey has a culture of doing things the right way and this wasn?t it. Gallant, at the very least, deserved a ride to wherever he wanted to go next and that?s the absolute least. Panthers? management will pay a price for the treatment of Gallant and it could easily come over the next few games. The Panthers have the right to hire and fire whomever they like. They?re not wrong in making a change but the biggest mistake in this move was the way it was handled. You cannot take the human element out of anything and the way that Gallant was let go cannot be sitting well with anyone in that dressing room. A big response on the ice is not the way you show disapproval and we trust that?s what?s in store for this game tonight. We?re betting the Panthers have a bad reaction (poor performance) to the way Gallant was treated.
Carolina +158 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The Carolina Hurricanes are once again among the puck possession leaders. It is rare to see them get outplayed and they also dominate other areas as well. They are the best face-off team in the NHL, meaning they are usually controlling things after the puck drops, which happens 40 to 50 times a game on average. The ?Canes also rank #1 in penalty killing. On defense, however, is where the Hurricanes really shine. They've been able to find diamonds in the rough with later-round picks, and have built up an impressive amount of defensive depth throughout their system. Too much emphasis is being put on Jordan Staal?s injury here and while Staal will be missed, the ?Canes system is built around every player contributing. This wager is now twofold in that Carolina should not be taking back prices like this against anyone and the Rangers cannot be priced in this range against them.
The Rangers started off as a really strong puck-possession team but it was short-lived after coaches had film of what the Rangers were trying to do. Over the last month, New York?s puck possession numbers are even worse than last year, where they went into the playoffs and were absolutely destroyed by the Penguins. The Rangers are now 15-8 and have the second most points in the league. We even saw one publication last week post the Rangers #1 in their power rankings. That is further proof of results having a bigger influence than performance. Calling the Rangers the best team in the NHL is embarrassing to that publication. The Rangers are the luckiest team in the NHL in the most luck-driven sport of the major four (hockey, basketball, baseball and football). In no other sport do teams get dominated on a nightly basis and emerge victorious. This past Friday, Philadelphia outshot the Rangers 42-23, out-chanced them, 24-12 and had a dominating puck possession edge of 63% to 37% but New York won, 3-2. Prior to back-to-back games against Pittsburgh last week, the Rangers lost to Columbus and Florida. Prior to that, they defeated Vancouver but were outshot 38-25. In their recent 3-1 win over Edmonton last week, the Rangers were outshot 37-29. The list goes on of games in which the Rangers have been outplayed and out-chanced and ended up winning. Their 12.4 percent even-strength shooting percentage is also a major outlier, so they?re likely in for some serious regression when that lucky number inevitably comes down. As a big favorite here, the Rangers will very likely get out-played. That alone prompts us to step in.
Buffalo +130 over OTTAWA
OT included. Past the quarter mark of the season already and the Senators are without question this year?s biggest surprise so far with 14 victories in 22 games. Ottawa is also hot right now with four consecutive wins, which includes a 4-3 victory in Montreal and a 2-0 victory over New York on Sunday. However, Craig Anderson has been playing out of his mind and the numbers say that regression is inevitable. In those four aforementioned wins, Ottawa posted 23, 26, 24 and 20 shots on net respectively while surrendering 33 or more or three of the four. In 15 of their 22 games this season, the Sens have lost the puck possession battle and also lost the high quality scoring chances battle. Ottawa is not a weak team that should be losing every night, as they do some things very well but they are not a top-5 team and winning games is not sustainable when you?re the second best team on the ice so often.
It really does not matter how Jack Eichel performs here in his season debut because his mere presence on the ice is worth so much more. Eichel is an impact player for sure but he?s also a team leader that has earned the respect and admiration of every single player on that Sabres bench. Buffalo has suffered without their leader but they have been competitive and figure to have a little extra jump in their step here. With Eichel, the Sabres are going to be dramatically better and we can think of all the possibilities that give them a fast-forwarded result. O?Reilly should continue to be a Corsi hound while producing points. Sam Reinhart is starting to play like the player he looked like at the World Junior Championships. Rasmus Ristolainen is starting to harness the kind of talent that had people at the Stanley Cup final thinking he could develop like Tampa Bay?s Victor Hedman. Evander Kane makes a difference every time he?s on the ice. Not many folks watch the Sabres but the entertainment value should go through the roof with Eichel back and the other players picking up their game but more importantly, their stock is so low that the value on them has not been this good in a very long time. Keep your eye on the Sabres, as there is great profit potential and it likely starts here.
Montreal +104 over ANAHEIM
OT included. We?re not going to go into a lot of details here because it?s not necessary. Goaltending decides more games than anything else in the NHL and that means Carey Price always gives the Canadiens a better chance of winning than losing. The Habs are solid all around but Price pushes them to a level that is hard to match. The explanation for Montreal?s success may be as simple as the return and high-end play of Price, but there are some people in hockey who believe the subtraction of P.K. Subban has been a real positive for that dressing room. Shea Weber has been everything the Canadiens had hoped for.
The coaching change from Bruce Boudreau to Randy Carlyle has not been a good one for the Ducks and things might get worse. Anaheim is now two games under .500 at 10-12. There is always player movement and line juggling. The constant tweaks that Carlyle tries to make are taking a toll and so are the trade rumors. Randy Carlyle is not coaching material. He fluked a Stanley Cup with Anaheim a few years ago but it was not his doing; he was just the beneficiary of landing there at the right time. While we like the personnel of the Ducks, we have never liked Carlyle will never do anything significant again under him. This is one game in which of course anything can happen but give us Price versus Gibson 100% of the time when taking back a tag and give us the dressing room in a much better frame of mind. Incidentally, Anaheim is 1-6 versus top-10 teams.
Arizona +201 over SAN JOSE
OT included. The Sharks are indeed capable of repeating as Western Conference champs but that does not mean they can?t be beat and it does not mean that they?re worthy of prices like this on a Tuesday night game in late November. For one, the Sharks are scoring goals at a rate not nearly high enough to warrant these prices and they?re not in great form either with a 3-4 record over their past seven games. Coming off a long, grinding postseason run, San Jose will be flat in several games this year both at home and on the road and so the reward here is greater than the risk.
Quietly, the Coyotes are heating up by picking up points in five of their last six games. Mike Smith has been playing at a high level since returning from an injury and as long as you get good goaltending, you always have a chance to win in this league. The ?Yotes are creating plenty of chances too with 36 shots on net or more and 24 scoring chances or more in three of their last five games. Arizona possesses an outstanding group of puck moving defensemen. New additions to the defense Jakob Chychrun and Tony DeAngelo look promising and they join two other great defensemen in Michael Stone and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. There are pieces here to compete every single night and now that their confidence is higher and they?re playing well after a slow start, we?re not going to pass up prices like this on the Coyotes when their chances of winning are legit. Overlay.
