07:00 PM CBB [514] Central Michigan -3-110
07:00 PM CBB [521] TOTAL o152-110 (Eastern Michigan vrs Ball State)
09:00 PM CBB [550] Mississippi State -1.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [557] Monmouth -5.5 -115
07:05 PM NHL [2] TOTAL u5+120 (Montreal Canadiens vrs New York Rangers)
07:05 PM NHL [3] Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 +200
07:05 PM NHL [6] TOTAL u5-125 (Ottawa Senators vrs New Jersey Devils)
09:05 PM NHL [18] TOTAL u5-115 (Los Angeles Kings vrs Colorado Avalanche)
1 unit bet pays 287 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Over is 13-3 in Ball State last 16 games as a favorite. Over is 9-1 last 10 overall..The over is 18-5-0 this season...The over is 43-18-1 in Ball State last 62 vs. Mid-American and the over is 34-16-1 in Ball State last 51 overall
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State -2
The Bulldogs started strong this season, but have been dropping a lot of games of late, including four in a row. However, they have produced positive results for the bankroll, cashing 14 of 23 tickets this season, including current 3-0 & 9-4 ATS runs. Miss State has dropped two in a row to Ole Miss, including an 88-61 butt-kicking last month. But the Bulldogs did win last time the teams met on this floor in January 2016, and we do like the fact Ben Howland's team is on a 12-2 ATS run the last two years in revenge of a road loss. Mississippi State is stingy on their home floor where they allow just 67 ppg and will face a Rebel squad that shoots just 40.8% on the road, while allowing over 77 ppg. I also don't care for Ole Miss' shot creators. Deondre Burnett is their best assist man, but has almost as many turnovers (76) as assists (82). MSU's I.J. Ready & Lamar Peters are both more trustworthy when handling the ball than anyone on Andy Kennedy's roster and Ready missed last month's meeting. Miss State has covered six straight home games and they're on an 8-3 ATS run when hosting Ole Miss.
Mississippi vs. Mississippi St.
Pick: Mississippi St.
Ole Miss is 16-11 overall (7-7 in SEC play) as it travels to Starkville to take on in-state rival Mississippi St. The Bulldogs are just 14-12, including 5-9 in league play and have little to play for here other than there is always something special about beating a bitter rival. As a bonus, a win over Ole Miss would deal a major blow to the visiting Rebels' at-large NCAA hopes.
Ole Miss is 4-2 in its last six games and needs a strong finish to keep flickering hopes alive for a spot in the Big Dance. The Rebels have scored 80-plus points in five of their last six and average 78.1 PPG on the season. Guards Burnett (16.9) and Davis (14.7 & 5.5) are joined in double figures by the 6-9 Saiz (15.0 & 11.0), who has produced 17 double-doubles on the season plus leads the SEC in rebounding. However, 80 points wasn't good enough to win the last time out, as the Rebels allowed Arkansas to score 98 points. I'm not even a little bit sold on Ole Miss, as the team allows almost as many points as it scores (76.4 PPG, which ranks 274th in the nation).
The Bulldogs had a promising start to the season, opening 12-5, including 3-1 in SEC play. However, they have now lost four straight games and eight of their last 10 (1-8 in SEC play!). Sophomore guard Weatherspoon (16.7 & 5.0) is the team's best player and is joined in double figures by two freshman. Guard Peters averages 11.8 PPG and 3.5 APG plus the 6-7 Kegler adds 10.2 PPG and 5.5 RPG. The 6-10 Holman (8.6 & 6.2) and guard Ready (8.1) are also solid contributors.
Miss St was hardly at its best when these teams met in Oxford back on Jan 31, as Ole Miss gave up its fewest points in an SEC game this season plus forced 19 turnovers in an 88-61 victory. However, Mississippi State head coach Ben Howland has shown his coaching chops in previous stops at Pittsburgh and UCLA. The Rebels can easily be 'had' away from home and I'm taking the home team in this rivalry game
Purdue vs. Penn St.
Pick: Penn St
Purdue has emerged as the team to beat in the Big 10 this year. But the Boilermakers sure do look a little overvalued for tonight's road tilt w/ Penn State. Especially considering they were asked to lay only 12 points to the Nittany Lions earlier in the season in West Lafayette. Admittedly, they won that game by 25 points, but as we've seen, it's much tougher to win on the road in College Basketball. I recommend grabbing the points in this one (and the number seems to be dropping!).
It wasn't too long ago that Penn State upset Maryland right here in State College. They followed that by upsetting Illinois (on the road!) as well. Their most recent game ended up being a 16-point loss at Nebraska, but that was a week ago. So they are better rested for tonight's matchup than their opponent, who hosted Michigan State over the weekend. The Nittany Lions are 30-15 SU their L45 home games and this being their first in two weeks should have the faithful fired up. It's not an exaggeration to call this PSU's biggest home game of the year.
I expect the shooting percentages to be a lot more even tonight than they were in the first meeting. Last month in West Lafayette, Purdue shot a blistering 56% from the field compared to 31.2% for Penn State. That's despite relatively even three-point shooting numbers! Penn State was actually only 12 of 43 on two-point attempts, which is borderline unfathomable. Admittedly, they aren't a great shooting team to begin with, but they also play much better defense at home. Look for the home dog to keep this one close.
What happened to St. John?s on Saturday should hit all radar screens. What had been an over-achieving team this season was already showing signs of wearing down on defense, and in a game in which an opponent was going to take them seriously, Butler bringing a revenge motive, it was a 110-86 rout, the Bulldogs scoring at will and dominating the boards. But there was another Big East result that day that may have fallen below many radar screens, and that means another opportunity for a team that will bring their all to expose the Red Storm, in this instance #542 Marquette (8:00 Eastern) getting the call, with -9.5 available across the board in the early trading. On ?Al?s Night?, honoring the legendary Al McGuire, it is more than just another Tuesday night.
Steve Wojciechowski and his Golden Eagles got a badly needed bye week before hosting Xavier, coming at a time in which they had lost their focus, especially on the defensive end. The coach made a gamble, pulling Haanif Cheatham, Luke Fischer and Jajuan Johnson out of the starting lineup, inserting Duane Wilson, Andrew Rowsey and Matt Heldt, and in fact did not play Johnson at all. The new group exploded to a 21-2 lead out of the gate and never looked back. From Wojo - "That's all I want. The score will take care of itself if you fight and if you're playing for your teammates, not just with them.?
Now that same energy and renewed chemistry can be expected, for this revenge setting, while having Cheatham (15 points and eight rebounds in 26 minutes off the bench), Fischer and Katlin Reinhartdt in reserve means a lot of punch, especially with Johnson likely to be back in the rotation again. That energy can take full advantage of a St. John?s defense that is allowing an astronomical 89.6 points per game on the conference road, which includes earlier games when the Red Storm were much fresher. With six freshmen and sophomores in the top seven in the rotation Chris Mullin does not have any way to prevent this attrition on defense from continuing, and a fresh and re-invigorated Marquette team fighting for tourney hopes is not likely to pull any punches.
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Northwestern -1?
I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a short road favorite against the Illini. These two teams just recently played at Northwestern, with Illinois pulling off the upset in a 68-61 win as a 6-point dog. That loss came in the Wildcats second game without leading scorer Scottie Lindsey and fresh off a 21-point loss at Purdue in their first game without him. Lindsey returned in Northwestern's last game and I look for the Wildcats to get their revenge.
Illinois comes in off a win at Iowa, but are still just 5-9 in Big Ten play. They have lost 3 straight at home, losing by 13 to Penn State, 9 to Minnesota and 14 to Wisconsin. Northwestern is 9-5 in Big Ten play, which doesn't jump off the paper. However, they are 8-2 with Lindsey in the lineup. Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off a home win where they failed to cover the spread and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite of 6 points or less. Illinois is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 as a home dog of 3 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off an upset win as an underdog.
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Northwestern -1?
The Key: The Northwestern Wildcats are on the verge of making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in the program's history. They need wins like this one at Illinois to get there. They certainly won't be lacking any motivation as they just lost at home to Illinois 61-68 on February 7th two weeks ago. But now the Wildcats have a healthy Scottie Lindsey back in the lineup after he missed four games due to injury, including that Illinois game. Lindsey leads the team in scoring at 15.0 points per game, so it's no surprise they went just 1-3 without him. The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Illinois is 0-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
When South Carolina and Florida meet for the second time this season the ESPN cameras will carry it live this evening, and you will get a chance to watch two of the best defenses in the nation go at it, the favored Gators at #3 in defensive efficiency, and the Gamecocks at #4.
You will also see a pair of offenses of nowhere near that same level. What happens when two very good defenses face offenses that can be challenged to make plays? Something like the first go-round between these two, the 57-53 win by South Carolina in Columbia, a game for the ages in terms of defensive dominance
Is there a regression that one could expect in the rematch? The notion gets clouded because there are other factors in play. One of the issues noted about Florida here a few weeks ago in previewing the showdown vs. Kentucky, which the Gators dominated at home, is that the same depth that makes the defense so unrelenting, the fact that no player in the rotation is going more than 28.4 minutes in SEC play, can also make the offense disjointed. No one averages more than the 13.2 ppg of Canyon Barry, but he missed practice yesterday with an ankle injury and is a question mark for tonight. As Florida moves up the polls the question has still not been answered as to whether the gators have the genuine go-to scorer(s) that can beat this class of defense?
Note that it if Barry misses it also throws a wrench into that deep rotation, which won?t have top inside defender John Egbunu the rest of the way because of a torn ACL. While Kevarrius White stepped up well at Mississippi State on Saturday, with 10 rebounds and four blocked shots, what had been a nine-player rotation may be reduced to seven.
Meanwhile can anyone other than Sindarious Thornwell score for South Carolina? He had 20 in the earlier win, scoring 18.2 percent of all points the game produced, and while it would seem like a good sign that he has averaged 30.0 per game over the last four outings, the Gamecocks have only gone 1-3 SU and 0-4 across that stretch. They have now fallen to #300 in the nation in effective FG%.
This may not be easy basketball to watch, with both teams exerting great ball pressure, although it will be worth watching closely how Mike White dials up his rotation if Barry cannot go. Did that first meeting reflect an offensive dud, or is that the way this matchup is supposed to flow, with so many of the shot attempts that were missed being forced because good looks could not be found?
Can't wait for exciting defensive basketball. Do you think this may have hurt the NBA in the past and now college.
Here is the odd juxtaposition of defense in modern times. Part of what will make SC/Florida so fierce on that end of the court is that there are 4 seniors starters in the game, guys that have been around long enough to be coached up and understand defensive principles. If we look at the 10 best defensive teams in the nation, there are 22 senior starters. What has plagued the NBA in recent years is the league becoming so heavy in "One-and-Done" players, guys with great physical skills, but also players that did not stay in college long enough to learn defense. The Lakers (#29 in NBA defense) and the Timberwolves (#23) are classic examples of that, two teams that often have three highly drafted One-and-Done players on the court at the same time, and both their individual and team defensive rotations are woeful.
So here is the oddity - there is some tremendous defense being coached and played in college basketball these days, but not much of it will matriculate to the NBA, one of the notions becoming that players that stick around for four NCAA seasons do it because they weren't good enough to go to the higher level. Of the 4 seniors starting in SC/Florida tonight, only Sindarious Thornwell is likely to end up making an NBA roster.
South Carolina vs. Florida
Pick: South Carolina
Florida is one of the hottest teams in the country. They have been dominant in the SEC. The oddsmaker has been forced to raise the lines on the Gators and tonight?s number is a bit too high facing a tough defensive minded team of South Carolina.
The Gamecocks are coming off 2 losses for the first time this season and I look for coach Frank Martin to have his team of upperclassmen ready to play. Florida and South Carolina rank #1 and #2 in defense in SEC. The Gators do have the more efficient offense over South Carolina, but the Gamecocks defensive play should be able to force Florida into some bad shots.
A week ago, UF lost its starting center ? John Egbunu ? to a torn ACL. He?s out for the season. It?ll take him 10 to 12 months to recover. That is a big loss for the team and can hurt them in this game. They now don?t have depth at the center position and I expect for their interior defense to regress. Also, their leading scorer Canyon Barry is listed as a game time decision after hurting his ankle and being held out of practice Sunday and Monday.
The last 3 meetings have been decided by 4 points each. Florida has a HUGE game against Kentucky on deck. The Gators are 1-6 ATS when playing with revenge before playing Kentucky. (South Carolina beat Florida earlier this year). South Carolina is 5-0 SU since 1/31/2015 when coming off 2 consecutive losses.
I'm surprised to see Va Tech only -1.5 at home against Clemson; especially considering the Hokies won at Clemson a month ago. Any interest in the short home favorite tonight?
I get a temptation to nibble at -1, and will if it shows. Unfortunately there is an awkward pendulum in play for VT in that while the scoreboard was strong at Louisville on Saturday, a 94-90 loss as +12.5, there were some fluky elements - the Hokies had 9 fewer rebounds, 6 more turnovers, 4 fewer steals and 3 fewer blocked shots, but they just happened to shoot the lights out, 17-26 from 3-point range. The pendulums in play off of a game like that bother me a bit (I usually have a hesitation to back a team off of that kind of shooting) , but at least VT should get some good looks at the basket tonight, the Clemson defense struggling to find a way this season.
Davidson at Richmond
Play: Richmond +2
Richmond is in its preferred role as an underdog tonight where the Spiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, including 4-1 ATS when getting 6.5-points or less. Richmond has covered five of its last seven games overall and my math model favors the Spiders by two points so we are getting excellent line value with the live home underdog. I like Richmond (+2) as my free sports pick for Tuesday, February 21.
Davidson possesses an offense that is 2.2 points per game better than average (74.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.8 points per game) and a defense that is 2.7 points per game better than average (70.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.1 points per game).
The Wildcats have lost three of their last five games over which time they are averaging just 68.2 points on 40.2% shooting from the field and 28.4% from beyond the arc. Davidson is averaging 29 three-pointers per game on the road this season, which plays into the strength of Richmond's defense.
The Spiders are limiting opponents to just 30.8% shooting from three-point territory overall and 30.5% on their home floor. Over its last five games, Richmond is holding opposing teams to just 29.3% shooting from beyond the arc. It's extremely unlikely that Davidson will beat the Spiders from beyond the arc in this game.
Richmond is 2.9 points per game better than average offensively and 0.7 points per game better than average defensively, but the Spiders' attack is making 46.4% of their field goal attempts over the last five games and 47.2% in conference play. The Spiders are also better from the free throw line at home (72.0%) and versus conference foes (71.8%).
The last two meetings between these teams were decided by a combined six points, and my math model suggests that the wrong team is favored in tonight's affair.
Tuesday comp play is Georgia Tech over NC State.
Heck, the Little Sisters of the Poor could be playing State tonight, and I would back them!
The Wolf Pack have clearly thrown in the towel, and now it's just a matter of them playing out the string for lame-duck Mark Gottfried.
NC State has lost 7 in a row both straight up and against the spread. They are also 1-8 against the spread their last 9 road games. At 14-14 they are now in danger of not playing in the postseason at all, and it sure looks like the team is fine with that.
That is not the case for Josh Pastner's Yellow Jackets who notched a huge conference win and cover over the weekend when they dumped Syracuse in Atlanta.
Georgia Tech has protected their home court with a passion, as the Jackets have now won 6 straight - covering all 5 on line - at home, and they were also a 10-point road winner over NC State in the middle of January.
The Techsters believe they have a shot at making the Big Dance at-large field, and they know full well they cannot slip up tonight against this team.
Lay the points.
5* GEORGIA TECH
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Under 134
Northwestern is a beats on defense, second in the Big 10 behind Wisconsin in points allowed, tops in field goal shooting defense. The under is 6-2 in the Wildcats last 8 games following a straight up win. Illinois can play defense, too, off a 70-66 win at Iowa as a dog, part of a 7-1 run under the total. And the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Play: Oklahoma +12
Oklahoma is an amazing 14-4 ATS in this series in all games played at Baylor since 1997. Oklahoma seem to be playing some decent basketball in their last few games despite being down a big part of their team in Jordan Woodard, with Baylor being a hit and miss team from game to game it seems and not really just blowing teams out this line is not unrealistic for Oklahoma at all in this one. Baylor is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games and only 4-7 ATS at home so Baylor being at home in this one shouldn't make much of a difference.
Kent St +7 over BUFFALO
With a 9-5 conference record, the Buffalo Bulls are a near lock to finish as a top four team in the Mid-Atlantic Conference. That's important because the MAC is a one-bid league, so only one team is guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The top four seeds in the conference tournament get a first round bye. A team only has to win three games instead of four to make the main event so it's a much easier road to the MAC title and the at-large bid. The Bulls have played their way into the top four on the backs of a six-game winning streak. It's been an impressive run, but there's not a lot of work left for them in the regular season, aside from a home date with first place Akron on Saturday. That?s a big game for Buffalo and at the very least, it has to be in the back of their minds or take away some focus from this game. With seven straight wins over Kent State, it might be easy for the Bulls to overlook the Golden Flashes in this spot tonight and that would be a big mistake.
Kent State got a big signature win over the MAC's number one team in Akron last Friday night. That win by K-State snapped the Zips 30-game home winning streak. The Golden Flashes are 7-7 in MAC play and are a game back of Ball State for the final first round bye. When these two teams played in Kent just over a month ago, the Golden Flashes lost by double digits as a three-point home favorite. Now, K-State is getting 7-points on the road against the hottest team in the conference but that 10-point swing in the number is what stands out. Every year there are some surprises in the conference tournaments. Last year for instance, it was Holy Cross that took a below average regular season and turned it into an at-large bid by winning the conference tournament. Kent State is one of those dangerous teams that can do the same. They are a rebounding machine (top-5 in the entire country), which means second chance points are available and that makes them dangerous. Remember, the odds makers gave this visitor a ton of respect when they made them a 3-point choice over the Bulls a month ago. The Flashes are also peaking at the right time and they?ll take a ton of momentum and confidence into this game against what could possibly be a disinterested host. Upset alert is on.
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Northwestern -1.5
Second meeting of this in-state battle between Northwestern and Illinois. In the previous contest, two weeks ago in Evanston, the Illini walked out with a 68-61 victory so expect the NU group to be revenge-minded tonight. The Wildcats were minus star guard Scottie Lindsey in the initial matchup but he returned to the starting lineup Saturday and played 24 minutes. With Lindsay back, not only does Northwestern have the leading scorer (15.0 ppg) on the floor tonight but his presence also boosts their defense significantly. Lindsay combined with Vic Law gives NU arguably the best set of wing defenders in the Big Ten which should make life a bit tougher on the Fighting Illini?s perimeter shooting this time around.
Northwestern kept Illinois interior threat Maverick Morgan pretty quiet in the initial meeting holding him to 5-of-12 shooting and only two free throw attempts but the Illini nailed 42% (8-of-21) from three-point land. Have to believe Lindsay?s presence will help quiet the Illinois guards and wing players who accounted for 56 points last time.
While the defense should be in better position to allow a more season like FG% (Northwestern allows just 39.5% from the field this year), the offense is likely to benefit as well with a third scoring threat on the floor. Game #1 saw Vic Law and Brian McIntosh forced to carry the burden but Lindsay will loosen things up since he?ll demand defensive attention as well. Saturday?s home scare versus Rutgers which ended in a Northwestern 69-65 late come from behind win, probably worked out the kinks of reintegrating Lindsay so look for the offense to be more fluid tonight.
We?re at that stage of the season where teams that are unsure of the NCAA Tournament status must win their winnable games. This is one of those for Chris Collins? crew which is staring right down the barrel of a three game regular season finish that includes at Indiana plus home vs. Michigan and Purdue. Winning this one is ultra-important for the ?Cats and the situation suggests they?ll be focused. That plus the return of Lindsay is enough to lay the short favorite price.
Senators vs. Devils
Play: Devils -105
Those who have the misfortune of watching the Devils on a daily basis can't be overly pleased with their team and somnolent offense. New Jersey defines mediocrity. However, this is an excellent spot for the Devils. Not only is it a key home game with short revenge for them, but they catch Ottawa at a most opportune time. The Senators are completely banged-up. Already down right wing Bobby Ryan with a possible broken finger that could sideline him multiple weeks, Ottawa suffered three more injuries in its last game this past Sunday. The Senators' top two goal scorers, Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, both were hurt in that game. Center Tommy Wingels also left after being checked hard into the board. All three played when the Senators shut out the Devils, 3-0, five days ago at Prudential Center. The three injured players did make the trip, but are uncertain to play. Stone could be dealing with a concussion. The Senators didn't practice on Monday. They also called up two players from their AHL affiliate. So I'd be surprised if Stone and Hoffman see ice time. Suffering a cluster injury problem in the front line, especially during such a short span, obviously creates problems. "I don't remember, to be honest, seeing that many (injuries) in so little time," Ottawa coach Guy Boucher was quoted as saying. "These are some of your better players, too. We're not talking about our 12th or 13th forward, we're talking about high-end players." Ottawa also carries a high fatigue rating, playing for the fourth time in six days. The Senators are 5-16 during the past 21 times in that situation. The Devils should have star goalie Cory Schneider back in net. They've won five of their last eight when Schneider has been in goal. New Jersey sits five points out of a playoff spot. The Devils don't play again until Saturday so a monster effort should be forthcoming. If the Devils were to lose this game, management may decide to look at the future with the trade deadline March 1.
OILERS AT LIGHTNING
PLAY: OILERS +105
One of the indicators that a team is pretty good is when they?re able to find ways to win even when they don?t play especially well.
I?m not about to crown the Edmonton Oilers as the team to beat in the West, but there?s no doubt in my mind this team is heading in the right direction. The Oilers were far from outstanding in each of their last two games. But they managed to get two points at home against the Flyers, and then got two more on Saturday as they opened a road trip with a win at Chicago.
The Oilers of the past would almost certainly have lost each of these games. But this Edmonton entry found a way to come out on top each time, and that to me is a sign of a team that?s really starting to figure things out. I also like the fact that while the team was happy to get the wins, they seemed eager to point out that their play has to improve if the wins are going to keep on coming.
That attitude has me looking Edmonton?s way as they continue their journey tonight with a stop at Tampa Bay. The Lightning are returning home off an okay four-game road trip where they went managed to garner six important points.
The Lightning have a favorable schedule the rest of the way with 15 of 24 games at home. They?re really going to have to make the most of that advantage if they?re to rally to make the playoffs. I just don?t see that as a likelihood as the Lightning have simply not been able to find that desired level of consistency all season.
As for tonight, it?s advantage Edmonton from a situational standpoint, and I?d rather have the team finding ways to win games as opposed to one that has done more of the opposite. I?ll side with the Oilers tonight.
N.Y. Islanders -105 over DETROIT
OT included. This is an almost identical play to a couple of other plays we made (and won) on Sunday when Chicago defeated Buffalo, 5-1 and Nashville defeated Columbus. The Sabres were coming off three wins in a row, which was capped off by a big win over the then red-hot Blues on Saturday afternoon. Buffalo?s game against Chicago was sandwiched between that aforementioned big win over the Blues and its bye week. The Jackets? game against Nashville was sandwiched between their big win over Pittsburgh on Friday and their bye week, which started on Monday. Now Detroit finds itself in the exact same scenario.
Detroit is coming off a huge weekend in which they defeated both Washington and Pittsburgh in back-to-back nationally televised games. The Red Wings were taking back +160 against the Capitals and +239 in Pittsburgh so they were not expected to win either one, let alone both. The Red Wings will now play this game basking in their glory with a their bye week on deck starting tomorrow. This really sets up as a difficult spot for the Red Wings, especially considering that they?re one of the easier teams in the NHL to beat. We also love that these two have played twice already this year with Detroit winning both times by a single goal. In a very difficult scheduling spot, the Red Wings are now being asked to defeat the superior team three times in a row in the same season and that is not likely going to happen. If you decide to make just one bet today, this should be it.
Chicago +146 over MINNESOTA
OT included. While we take nothing away from what the Wild have accomplished this year under Bruce Boudreau, they are not as good as their record indicates so they may be worth fading down the stretch in some spots or in the playoffs because they are very unlikely to maintain their dominance. Truth be told, the Wild have not dominated anything other than the scoreboard. They do not dominate puck possession and they create an average number of scoring chances but they?ve been able to score on a high number of them while allowing few. Minnesota?s goal differential is a ridiculous +62 so they have ridden the hot hand of goaltender Devan Dubnyk to an outstanding regular season record and their stock is soaring because of it.
There is a metric called Adjusted Corsi For %, which, unlike Corsi For % takes into consideration situations. For instance, was the team up three goals and protecting the lead or were they down a goal or two heading to the third period? All shots that are directed towards the net are not created equal and Adjusted Corsi For % takes all of that into consideration. In Corsi for (adjusted score) the Wild are ranked 19th in the league which puts them in the same range as the Islanders, Canucks, Jets and Senators. There are a slew of stats and numbers one can go over in any sport to find cracks in but the point is that the Wild are NOT dominating games. They are just getting luckier in those 50/50 tossup games that most teams play .500 in.
Chicago taking back a price like this is almost always worth looking at. The Blackhawks are a team that every other team in the West wants to desperately avoid playing in Round 1. The Blackhawks have won six straight games away from the United Center. They've scored the game's first goal in four of those wins, and in the other two, overcame 1-0 deficits to beat Dallas 5-3 and Edmonton 5-1. Jonathan Toews is playing like an All-Star again and so are several other players. This isn?t the Blackhawks first rodeo. They?ve been through this regular season grind before and won three Stanley Cups in the process. From Coach Joel Quenneville to Patrick Kane, to Duncan Keith, to Marion Hossa and Keith Seabrook to goaltender Corey Crawford, this is a team that is quite aware of when the right time to peak is. Chicago appears to be shifting into gear and now would be the perfect opportunity for them to send these West rivals a little reminder of who they have to go through to reach the Promised Land. Chicago is too good to refuse a price like this in a big game like this.
Blackhawks vs. Wild
Play: Under 5?
These are a couple of the highest scoring teams in the league, but we?re anticipating a defensive goaltenders battle this evening. Corey Crawford gets the call in net for the visitors and he stopped 35 of 38 shots in a 4-3 OT win over the Wild earlier in the year. He?ll be opposed by perhaps the best goatlender in the league in Devan Dubnyk, who backstops a defense which allows just 2.3 GPG, ranked second overall. Note that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Minnesota has seen the total go UNDER in six of ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. With these two world class goaltenders going head-to-head on Tuesday night, we?re going to recommend a second look at the UNDER in this particular matchup.
Blackhawks vs. Wild
Play: Wild -135
The Minnesota Wild will host the Chicago Blackhaws in a Central Division showdown Tuesday night. The Wild are sitting top of the division, seven points ahead of the Hawks in second, and they're 11-2 in their last 13 vs. Central Division foes. They had won six straight head-to-head meetings with the Blackhawks prior to a 4-3 OT setback here at Xcel Energy Center on Feb. 8, and I like them to reestablish their dominance in the series tonight.
The Blackhawks have played seven of their last eight games on the road, and I think they'll come out flat here as they play their third game in four nights. The Wild meanwhile are playing on two days rest (they're 4-0 in their last four games playing on 2 days rest) and my money is on the home team in this contest.
Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Winnipeg Jets +140
The Winnipeg Jets are visiting the ACC tonight and they are getting some nice plus money that we will gladly take. Winnipeg has owned the Leafs and beat them 5-4 in their only matchup of the season. In the last 9 matchups between the clubs the Jets are 8-1. The Leafs are just getting too much love form the oddsmaker tonight as the Jets have won 3 out of their last 4 games. The Leafs have lost 4 out of their last 6 games and with the dominance that the Jets have on the Leafs getting plus 140 at the time of this writing is just too much plus money to pass up.
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Tommy Haas
Pick: Tommy Haas
Very difficult turnaround for Basilashvili here. He suffered an emotionally draining defeat on Sunday, losing the Memphis final 6-1/6-4 to Ryan Harrison. The match was much closer than the scoreline suggests, with Basilashvili the better player overall. He was 0-12 on break point opportunities! To make the situation worse he was a combined 6-36 with a staggering 42 break point chances from the quarter final onwards. He faces a tough opponent in Tommy Haas, a crowd favorite who makes yet another return to the ATP World Tour following injury. His return in Australia was cut short with an injury problem during his first round match v Benoit Paire, but he forced the Frenchman to a first set tiebreak & could easily have won the contest had he not been hampered by shortness of breath. This is likely the 38 year olds final season on the tour, but he retains plenty of shot making ability & expect him to win at least a set here, Basilashvili's game often spouts unforced errors & is likely to get ugly quickly if has any hangover from Sundays meltdown. Take the veteran to cover the spread.
Penn State is 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 conference matchups and 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games overall while the over is 6-2 in their last 8 road games. Penn State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games
The Wolfpack are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Atlantic Coast and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and Yellow Jackets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win
Lundqvist has allowed just 2.1 gpg in his last 10 starts...Price has a 1.86 GAA in his career vs the Rangers...Montreal?s last 10 games have averaged just 4.7 gpg, while the last 10 for the Rangers have put up just 5.4 ppg.
This will be the second straight game in which the Rangers will face a team playing its second game after a bye..teams in 2nd game after the bye are 10-8, 9-3 last 12 (tho 8 of the 12 have been priced as faves)
Rangers lost four of last five games with Montreal; last three series games went over the total. Canadiens won 1-0/5-1 in last two visits to Manhattan. Montreal lost three in row, seven of last eight games; they lost four of last five on road. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Rangers won five in row at home, six of last seven overall; over is 4-2 in their last six home games.
Pittsburgh Penguins are 12-3 in their last 15 games following a loss of three or more goals
Pittsburgh has taken both tilts with Carolina this year, winning 3-2 at PPG Paints Arena on December 28, and 7-1 in Raleigh on January 20. Dating to January 17 last season, the Pens have beaten the Canes five straight times by a combined score of 20-6
Penguins won their last five games with Carolina, winning 2-1/7-1 in last two visits to Raleigh. Under is 5-3-2 in last ten series games. Pittsburgh is 3-4 in its last seven games, losing last two road games, both in OT. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Carolina lost its last four games, outscored 16-3; they?re 2-3 in last five home games. Hurricanes? last three home games stayed under the total.
07:00 PM CBB [521] TOTAL o152-110 (Eastern Michigan vrs Ball State)
09:00 PM CBB [550] Mississippi State -1.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [557] Monmouth -5.5 -115
07:05 PM NHL [2] TOTAL u5+120 (Montreal Canadiens vrs New York Rangers)
07:05 PM NHL [3] Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 +200
07:05 PM NHL [6] TOTAL u5-125 (Ottawa Senators vrs New Jersey Devils)
09:05 PM NHL [18] TOTAL u5-115 (Los Angeles Kings vrs Colorado Avalanche)
1 unit bet pays 287 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Over is 13-3 in Ball State last 16 games as a favorite. Over is 9-1 last 10 overall..The over is 18-5-0 this season...The over is 43-18-1 in Ball State last 62 vs. Mid-American and the over is 34-16-1 in Ball State last 51 overall
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State -2
The Bulldogs started strong this season, but have been dropping a lot of games of late, including four in a row. However, they have produced positive results for the bankroll, cashing 14 of 23 tickets this season, including current 3-0 & 9-4 ATS runs. Miss State has dropped two in a row to Ole Miss, including an 88-61 butt-kicking last month. But the Bulldogs did win last time the teams met on this floor in January 2016, and we do like the fact Ben Howland's team is on a 12-2 ATS run the last two years in revenge of a road loss. Mississippi State is stingy on their home floor where they allow just 67 ppg and will face a Rebel squad that shoots just 40.8% on the road, while allowing over 77 ppg. I also don't care for Ole Miss' shot creators. Deondre Burnett is their best assist man, but has almost as many turnovers (76) as assists (82). MSU's I.J. Ready & Lamar Peters are both more trustworthy when handling the ball than anyone on Andy Kennedy's roster and Ready missed last month's meeting. Miss State has covered six straight home games and they're on an 8-3 ATS run when hosting Ole Miss.
Mississippi vs. Mississippi St.
Pick: Mississippi St.
Ole Miss is 16-11 overall (7-7 in SEC play) as it travels to Starkville to take on in-state rival Mississippi St. The Bulldogs are just 14-12, including 5-9 in league play and have little to play for here other than there is always something special about beating a bitter rival. As a bonus, a win over Ole Miss would deal a major blow to the visiting Rebels' at-large NCAA hopes.
Ole Miss is 4-2 in its last six games and needs a strong finish to keep flickering hopes alive for a spot in the Big Dance. The Rebels have scored 80-plus points in five of their last six and average 78.1 PPG on the season. Guards Burnett (16.9) and Davis (14.7 & 5.5) are joined in double figures by the 6-9 Saiz (15.0 & 11.0), who has produced 17 double-doubles on the season plus leads the SEC in rebounding. However, 80 points wasn't good enough to win the last time out, as the Rebels allowed Arkansas to score 98 points. I'm not even a little bit sold on Ole Miss, as the team allows almost as many points as it scores (76.4 PPG, which ranks 274th in the nation).
The Bulldogs had a promising start to the season, opening 12-5, including 3-1 in SEC play. However, they have now lost four straight games and eight of their last 10 (1-8 in SEC play!). Sophomore guard Weatherspoon (16.7 & 5.0) is the team's best player and is joined in double figures by two freshman. Guard Peters averages 11.8 PPG and 3.5 APG plus the 6-7 Kegler adds 10.2 PPG and 5.5 RPG. The 6-10 Holman (8.6 & 6.2) and guard Ready (8.1) are also solid contributors.
Miss St was hardly at its best when these teams met in Oxford back on Jan 31, as Ole Miss gave up its fewest points in an SEC game this season plus forced 19 turnovers in an 88-61 victory. However, Mississippi State head coach Ben Howland has shown his coaching chops in previous stops at Pittsburgh and UCLA. The Rebels can easily be 'had' away from home and I'm taking the home team in this rivalry game
Purdue vs. Penn St.
Pick: Penn St
Purdue has emerged as the team to beat in the Big 10 this year. But the Boilermakers sure do look a little overvalued for tonight's road tilt w/ Penn State. Especially considering they were asked to lay only 12 points to the Nittany Lions earlier in the season in West Lafayette. Admittedly, they won that game by 25 points, but as we've seen, it's much tougher to win on the road in College Basketball. I recommend grabbing the points in this one (and the number seems to be dropping!).
It wasn't too long ago that Penn State upset Maryland right here in State College. They followed that by upsetting Illinois (on the road!) as well. Their most recent game ended up being a 16-point loss at Nebraska, but that was a week ago. So they are better rested for tonight's matchup than their opponent, who hosted Michigan State over the weekend. The Nittany Lions are 30-15 SU their L45 home games and this being their first in two weeks should have the faithful fired up. It's not an exaggeration to call this PSU's biggest home game of the year.
I expect the shooting percentages to be a lot more even tonight than they were in the first meeting. Last month in West Lafayette, Purdue shot a blistering 56% from the field compared to 31.2% for Penn State. That's despite relatively even three-point shooting numbers! Penn State was actually only 12 of 43 on two-point attempts, which is borderline unfathomable. Admittedly, they aren't a great shooting team to begin with, but they also play much better defense at home. Look for the home dog to keep this one close.
What happened to St. John?s on Saturday should hit all radar screens. What had been an over-achieving team this season was already showing signs of wearing down on defense, and in a game in which an opponent was going to take them seriously, Butler bringing a revenge motive, it was a 110-86 rout, the Bulldogs scoring at will and dominating the boards. But there was another Big East result that day that may have fallen below many radar screens, and that means another opportunity for a team that will bring their all to expose the Red Storm, in this instance #542 Marquette (8:00 Eastern) getting the call, with -9.5 available across the board in the early trading. On ?Al?s Night?, honoring the legendary Al McGuire, it is more than just another Tuesday night.
Steve Wojciechowski and his Golden Eagles got a badly needed bye week before hosting Xavier, coming at a time in which they had lost their focus, especially on the defensive end. The coach made a gamble, pulling Haanif Cheatham, Luke Fischer and Jajuan Johnson out of the starting lineup, inserting Duane Wilson, Andrew Rowsey and Matt Heldt, and in fact did not play Johnson at all. The new group exploded to a 21-2 lead out of the gate and never looked back. From Wojo - "That's all I want. The score will take care of itself if you fight and if you're playing for your teammates, not just with them.?
Now that same energy and renewed chemistry can be expected, for this revenge setting, while having Cheatham (15 points and eight rebounds in 26 minutes off the bench), Fischer and Katlin Reinhartdt in reserve means a lot of punch, especially with Johnson likely to be back in the rotation again. That energy can take full advantage of a St. John?s defense that is allowing an astronomical 89.6 points per game on the conference road, which includes earlier games when the Red Storm were much fresher. With six freshmen and sophomores in the top seven in the rotation Chris Mullin does not have any way to prevent this attrition on defense from continuing, and a fresh and re-invigorated Marquette team fighting for tourney hopes is not likely to pull any punches.
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Northwestern -1?
I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a short road favorite against the Illini. These two teams just recently played at Northwestern, with Illinois pulling off the upset in a 68-61 win as a 6-point dog. That loss came in the Wildcats second game without leading scorer Scottie Lindsey and fresh off a 21-point loss at Purdue in their first game without him. Lindsey returned in Northwestern's last game and I look for the Wildcats to get their revenge.
Illinois comes in off a win at Iowa, but are still just 5-9 in Big Ten play. They have lost 3 straight at home, losing by 13 to Penn State, 9 to Minnesota and 14 to Wisconsin. Northwestern is 9-5 in Big Ten play, which doesn't jump off the paper. However, they are 8-2 with Lindsey in the lineup. Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off a home win where they failed to cover the spread and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite of 6 points or less. Illinois is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 as a home dog of 3 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off an upset win as an underdog.
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Northwestern -1?
The Key: The Northwestern Wildcats are on the verge of making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in the program's history. They need wins like this one at Illinois to get there. They certainly won't be lacking any motivation as they just lost at home to Illinois 61-68 on February 7th two weeks ago. But now the Wildcats have a healthy Scottie Lindsey back in the lineup after he missed four games due to injury, including that Illinois game. Lindsey leads the team in scoring at 15.0 points per game, so it's no surprise they went just 1-3 without him. The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Illinois is 0-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
When South Carolina and Florida meet for the second time this season the ESPN cameras will carry it live this evening, and you will get a chance to watch two of the best defenses in the nation go at it, the favored Gators at #3 in defensive efficiency, and the Gamecocks at #4.
You will also see a pair of offenses of nowhere near that same level. What happens when two very good defenses face offenses that can be challenged to make plays? Something like the first go-round between these two, the 57-53 win by South Carolina in Columbia, a game for the ages in terms of defensive dominance
Is there a regression that one could expect in the rematch? The notion gets clouded because there are other factors in play. One of the issues noted about Florida here a few weeks ago in previewing the showdown vs. Kentucky, which the Gators dominated at home, is that the same depth that makes the defense so unrelenting, the fact that no player in the rotation is going more than 28.4 minutes in SEC play, can also make the offense disjointed. No one averages more than the 13.2 ppg of Canyon Barry, but he missed practice yesterday with an ankle injury and is a question mark for tonight. As Florida moves up the polls the question has still not been answered as to whether the gators have the genuine go-to scorer(s) that can beat this class of defense?
Note that it if Barry misses it also throws a wrench into that deep rotation, which won?t have top inside defender John Egbunu the rest of the way because of a torn ACL. While Kevarrius White stepped up well at Mississippi State on Saturday, with 10 rebounds and four blocked shots, what had been a nine-player rotation may be reduced to seven.
Meanwhile can anyone other than Sindarious Thornwell score for South Carolina? He had 20 in the earlier win, scoring 18.2 percent of all points the game produced, and while it would seem like a good sign that he has averaged 30.0 per game over the last four outings, the Gamecocks have only gone 1-3 SU and 0-4 across that stretch. They have now fallen to #300 in the nation in effective FG%.
This may not be easy basketball to watch, with both teams exerting great ball pressure, although it will be worth watching closely how Mike White dials up his rotation if Barry cannot go. Did that first meeting reflect an offensive dud, or is that the way this matchup is supposed to flow, with so many of the shot attempts that were missed being forced because good looks could not be found?
Can't wait for exciting defensive basketball. Do you think this may have hurt the NBA in the past and now college.
Here is the odd juxtaposition of defense in modern times. Part of what will make SC/Florida so fierce on that end of the court is that there are 4 seniors starters in the game, guys that have been around long enough to be coached up and understand defensive principles. If we look at the 10 best defensive teams in the nation, there are 22 senior starters. What has plagued the NBA in recent years is the league becoming so heavy in "One-and-Done" players, guys with great physical skills, but also players that did not stay in college long enough to learn defense. The Lakers (#29 in NBA defense) and the Timberwolves (#23) are classic examples of that, two teams that often have three highly drafted One-and-Done players on the court at the same time, and both their individual and team defensive rotations are woeful.
So here is the oddity - there is some tremendous defense being coached and played in college basketball these days, but not much of it will matriculate to the NBA, one of the notions becoming that players that stick around for four NCAA seasons do it because they weren't good enough to go to the higher level. Of the 4 seniors starting in SC/Florida tonight, only Sindarious Thornwell is likely to end up making an NBA roster.
South Carolina vs. Florida
Pick: South Carolina
Florida is one of the hottest teams in the country. They have been dominant in the SEC. The oddsmaker has been forced to raise the lines on the Gators and tonight?s number is a bit too high facing a tough defensive minded team of South Carolina.
The Gamecocks are coming off 2 losses for the first time this season and I look for coach Frank Martin to have his team of upperclassmen ready to play. Florida and South Carolina rank #1 and #2 in defense in SEC. The Gators do have the more efficient offense over South Carolina, but the Gamecocks defensive play should be able to force Florida into some bad shots.
A week ago, UF lost its starting center ? John Egbunu ? to a torn ACL. He?s out for the season. It?ll take him 10 to 12 months to recover. That is a big loss for the team and can hurt them in this game. They now don?t have depth at the center position and I expect for their interior defense to regress. Also, their leading scorer Canyon Barry is listed as a game time decision after hurting his ankle and being held out of practice Sunday and Monday.
The last 3 meetings have been decided by 4 points each. Florida has a HUGE game against Kentucky on deck. The Gators are 1-6 ATS when playing with revenge before playing Kentucky. (South Carolina beat Florida earlier this year). South Carolina is 5-0 SU since 1/31/2015 when coming off 2 consecutive losses.
I'm surprised to see Va Tech only -1.5 at home against Clemson; especially considering the Hokies won at Clemson a month ago. Any interest in the short home favorite tonight?
I get a temptation to nibble at -1, and will if it shows. Unfortunately there is an awkward pendulum in play for VT in that while the scoreboard was strong at Louisville on Saturday, a 94-90 loss as +12.5, there were some fluky elements - the Hokies had 9 fewer rebounds, 6 more turnovers, 4 fewer steals and 3 fewer blocked shots, but they just happened to shoot the lights out, 17-26 from 3-point range. The pendulums in play off of a game like that bother me a bit (I usually have a hesitation to back a team off of that kind of shooting) , but at least VT should get some good looks at the basket tonight, the Clemson defense struggling to find a way this season.
Davidson at Richmond
Play: Richmond +2
Richmond is in its preferred role as an underdog tonight where the Spiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, including 4-1 ATS when getting 6.5-points or less. Richmond has covered five of its last seven games overall and my math model favors the Spiders by two points so we are getting excellent line value with the live home underdog. I like Richmond (+2) as my free sports pick for Tuesday, February 21.
Davidson possesses an offense that is 2.2 points per game better than average (74.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.8 points per game) and a defense that is 2.7 points per game better than average (70.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.1 points per game).
The Wildcats have lost three of their last five games over which time they are averaging just 68.2 points on 40.2% shooting from the field and 28.4% from beyond the arc. Davidson is averaging 29 three-pointers per game on the road this season, which plays into the strength of Richmond's defense.
The Spiders are limiting opponents to just 30.8% shooting from three-point territory overall and 30.5% on their home floor. Over its last five games, Richmond is holding opposing teams to just 29.3% shooting from beyond the arc. It's extremely unlikely that Davidson will beat the Spiders from beyond the arc in this game.
Richmond is 2.9 points per game better than average offensively and 0.7 points per game better than average defensively, but the Spiders' attack is making 46.4% of their field goal attempts over the last five games and 47.2% in conference play. The Spiders are also better from the free throw line at home (72.0%) and versus conference foes (71.8%).
The last two meetings between these teams were decided by a combined six points, and my math model suggests that the wrong team is favored in tonight's affair.
Tuesday comp play is Georgia Tech over NC State.
Heck, the Little Sisters of the Poor could be playing State tonight, and I would back them!
The Wolf Pack have clearly thrown in the towel, and now it's just a matter of them playing out the string for lame-duck Mark Gottfried.
NC State has lost 7 in a row both straight up and against the spread. They are also 1-8 against the spread their last 9 road games. At 14-14 they are now in danger of not playing in the postseason at all, and it sure looks like the team is fine with that.
That is not the case for Josh Pastner's Yellow Jackets who notched a huge conference win and cover over the weekend when they dumped Syracuse in Atlanta.
Georgia Tech has protected their home court with a passion, as the Jackets have now won 6 straight - covering all 5 on line - at home, and they were also a 10-point road winner over NC State in the middle of January.
The Techsters believe they have a shot at making the Big Dance at-large field, and they know full well they cannot slip up tonight against this team.
Lay the points.
5* GEORGIA TECH
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Under 134
Northwestern is a beats on defense, second in the Big 10 behind Wisconsin in points allowed, tops in field goal shooting defense. The under is 6-2 in the Wildcats last 8 games following a straight up win. Illinois can play defense, too, off a 70-66 win at Iowa as a dog, part of a 7-1 run under the total. And the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Play: Oklahoma +12
Oklahoma is an amazing 14-4 ATS in this series in all games played at Baylor since 1997. Oklahoma seem to be playing some decent basketball in their last few games despite being down a big part of their team in Jordan Woodard, with Baylor being a hit and miss team from game to game it seems and not really just blowing teams out this line is not unrealistic for Oklahoma at all in this one. Baylor is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games and only 4-7 ATS at home so Baylor being at home in this one shouldn't make much of a difference.
Kent St +7 over BUFFALO
With a 9-5 conference record, the Buffalo Bulls are a near lock to finish as a top four team in the Mid-Atlantic Conference. That's important because the MAC is a one-bid league, so only one team is guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The top four seeds in the conference tournament get a first round bye. A team only has to win three games instead of four to make the main event so it's a much easier road to the MAC title and the at-large bid. The Bulls have played their way into the top four on the backs of a six-game winning streak. It's been an impressive run, but there's not a lot of work left for them in the regular season, aside from a home date with first place Akron on Saturday. That?s a big game for Buffalo and at the very least, it has to be in the back of their minds or take away some focus from this game. With seven straight wins over Kent State, it might be easy for the Bulls to overlook the Golden Flashes in this spot tonight and that would be a big mistake.
Kent State got a big signature win over the MAC's number one team in Akron last Friday night. That win by K-State snapped the Zips 30-game home winning streak. The Golden Flashes are 7-7 in MAC play and are a game back of Ball State for the final first round bye. When these two teams played in Kent just over a month ago, the Golden Flashes lost by double digits as a three-point home favorite. Now, K-State is getting 7-points on the road against the hottest team in the conference but that 10-point swing in the number is what stands out. Every year there are some surprises in the conference tournaments. Last year for instance, it was Holy Cross that took a below average regular season and turned it into an at-large bid by winning the conference tournament. Kent State is one of those dangerous teams that can do the same. They are a rebounding machine (top-5 in the entire country), which means second chance points are available and that makes them dangerous. Remember, the odds makers gave this visitor a ton of respect when they made them a 3-point choice over the Bulls a month ago. The Flashes are also peaking at the right time and they?ll take a ton of momentum and confidence into this game against what could possibly be a disinterested host. Upset alert is on.
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Northwestern -1.5
Second meeting of this in-state battle between Northwestern and Illinois. In the previous contest, two weeks ago in Evanston, the Illini walked out with a 68-61 victory so expect the NU group to be revenge-minded tonight. The Wildcats were minus star guard Scottie Lindsey in the initial matchup but he returned to the starting lineup Saturday and played 24 minutes. With Lindsay back, not only does Northwestern have the leading scorer (15.0 ppg) on the floor tonight but his presence also boosts their defense significantly. Lindsay combined with Vic Law gives NU arguably the best set of wing defenders in the Big Ten which should make life a bit tougher on the Fighting Illini?s perimeter shooting this time around.
Northwestern kept Illinois interior threat Maverick Morgan pretty quiet in the initial meeting holding him to 5-of-12 shooting and only two free throw attempts but the Illini nailed 42% (8-of-21) from three-point land. Have to believe Lindsay?s presence will help quiet the Illinois guards and wing players who accounted for 56 points last time.
While the defense should be in better position to allow a more season like FG% (Northwestern allows just 39.5% from the field this year), the offense is likely to benefit as well with a third scoring threat on the floor. Game #1 saw Vic Law and Brian McIntosh forced to carry the burden but Lindsay will loosen things up since he?ll demand defensive attention as well. Saturday?s home scare versus Rutgers which ended in a Northwestern 69-65 late come from behind win, probably worked out the kinks of reintegrating Lindsay so look for the offense to be more fluid tonight.
We?re at that stage of the season where teams that are unsure of the NCAA Tournament status must win their winnable games. This is one of those for Chris Collins? crew which is staring right down the barrel of a three game regular season finish that includes at Indiana plus home vs. Michigan and Purdue. Winning this one is ultra-important for the ?Cats and the situation suggests they?ll be focused. That plus the return of Lindsay is enough to lay the short favorite price.
Senators vs. Devils
Play: Devils -105
Those who have the misfortune of watching the Devils on a daily basis can't be overly pleased with their team and somnolent offense. New Jersey defines mediocrity. However, this is an excellent spot for the Devils. Not only is it a key home game with short revenge for them, but they catch Ottawa at a most opportune time. The Senators are completely banged-up. Already down right wing Bobby Ryan with a possible broken finger that could sideline him multiple weeks, Ottawa suffered three more injuries in its last game this past Sunday. The Senators' top two goal scorers, Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, both were hurt in that game. Center Tommy Wingels also left after being checked hard into the board. All three played when the Senators shut out the Devils, 3-0, five days ago at Prudential Center. The three injured players did make the trip, but are uncertain to play. Stone could be dealing with a concussion. The Senators didn't practice on Monday. They also called up two players from their AHL affiliate. So I'd be surprised if Stone and Hoffman see ice time. Suffering a cluster injury problem in the front line, especially during such a short span, obviously creates problems. "I don't remember, to be honest, seeing that many (injuries) in so little time," Ottawa coach Guy Boucher was quoted as saying. "These are some of your better players, too. We're not talking about our 12th or 13th forward, we're talking about high-end players." Ottawa also carries a high fatigue rating, playing for the fourth time in six days. The Senators are 5-16 during the past 21 times in that situation. The Devils should have star goalie Cory Schneider back in net. They've won five of their last eight when Schneider has been in goal. New Jersey sits five points out of a playoff spot. The Devils don't play again until Saturday so a monster effort should be forthcoming. If the Devils were to lose this game, management may decide to look at the future with the trade deadline March 1.
OILERS AT LIGHTNING
PLAY: OILERS +105
One of the indicators that a team is pretty good is when they?re able to find ways to win even when they don?t play especially well.
I?m not about to crown the Edmonton Oilers as the team to beat in the West, but there?s no doubt in my mind this team is heading in the right direction. The Oilers were far from outstanding in each of their last two games. But they managed to get two points at home against the Flyers, and then got two more on Saturday as they opened a road trip with a win at Chicago.
The Oilers of the past would almost certainly have lost each of these games. But this Edmonton entry found a way to come out on top each time, and that to me is a sign of a team that?s really starting to figure things out. I also like the fact that while the team was happy to get the wins, they seemed eager to point out that their play has to improve if the wins are going to keep on coming.
That attitude has me looking Edmonton?s way as they continue their journey tonight with a stop at Tampa Bay. The Lightning are returning home off an okay four-game road trip where they went managed to garner six important points.
The Lightning have a favorable schedule the rest of the way with 15 of 24 games at home. They?re really going to have to make the most of that advantage if they?re to rally to make the playoffs. I just don?t see that as a likelihood as the Lightning have simply not been able to find that desired level of consistency all season.
As for tonight, it?s advantage Edmonton from a situational standpoint, and I?d rather have the team finding ways to win games as opposed to one that has done more of the opposite. I?ll side with the Oilers tonight.
N.Y. Islanders -105 over DETROIT
OT included. This is an almost identical play to a couple of other plays we made (and won) on Sunday when Chicago defeated Buffalo, 5-1 and Nashville defeated Columbus. The Sabres were coming off three wins in a row, which was capped off by a big win over the then red-hot Blues on Saturday afternoon. Buffalo?s game against Chicago was sandwiched between that aforementioned big win over the Blues and its bye week. The Jackets? game against Nashville was sandwiched between their big win over Pittsburgh on Friday and their bye week, which started on Monday. Now Detroit finds itself in the exact same scenario.
Detroit is coming off a huge weekend in which they defeated both Washington and Pittsburgh in back-to-back nationally televised games. The Red Wings were taking back +160 against the Capitals and +239 in Pittsburgh so they were not expected to win either one, let alone both. The Red Wings will now play this game basking in their glory with a their bye week on deck starting tomorrow. This really sets up as a difficult spot for the Red Wings, especially considering that they?re one of the easier teams in the NHL to beat. We also love that these two have played twice already this year with Detroit winning both times by a single goal. In a very difficult scheduling spot, the Red Wings are now being asked to defeat the superior team three times in a row in the same season and that is not likely going to happen. If you decide to make just one bet today, this should be it.
Chicago +146 over MINNESOTA
OT included. While we take nothing away from what the Wild have accomplished this year under Bruce Boudreau, they are not as good as their record indicates so they may be worth fading down the stretch in some spots or in the playoffs because they are very unlikely to maintain their dominance. Truth be told, the Wild have not dominated anything other than the scoreboard. They do not dominate puck possession and they create an average number of scoring chances but they?ve been able to score on a high number of them while allowing few. Minnesota?s goal differential is a ridiculous +62 so they have ridden the hot hand of goaltender Devan Dubnyk to an outstanding regular season record and their stock is soaring because of it.
There is a metric called Adjusted Corsi For %, which, unlike Corsi For % takes into consideration situations. For instance, was the team up three goals and protecting the lead or were they down a goal or two heading to the third period? All shots that are directed towards the net are not created equal and Adjusted Corsi For % takes all of that into consideration. In Corsi for (adjusted score) the Wild are ranked 19th in the league which puts them in the same range as the Islanders, Canucks, Jets and Senators. There are a slew of stats and numbers one can go over in any sport to find cracks in but the point is that the Wild are NOT dominating games. They are just getting luckier in those 50/50 tossup games that most teams play .500 in.
Chicago taking back a price like this is almost always worth looking at. The Blackhawks are a team that every other team in the West wants to desperately avoid playing in Round 1. The Blackhawks have won six straight games away from the United Center. They've scored the game's first goal in four of those wins, and in the other two, overcame 1-0 deficits to beat Dallas 5-3 and Edmonton 5-1. Jonathan Toews is playing like an All-Star again and so are several other players. This isn?t the Blackhawks first rodeo. They?ve been through this regular season grind before and won three Stanley Cups in the process. From Coach Joel Quenneville to Patrick Kane, to Duncan Keith, to Marion Hossa and Keith Seabrook to goaltender Corey Crawford, this is a team that is quite aware of when the right time to peak is. Chicago appears to be shifting into gear and now would be the perfect opportunity for them to send these West rivals a little reminder of who they have to go through to reach the Promised Land. Chicago is too good to refuse a price like this in a big game like this.
Blackhawks vs. Wild
Play: Under 5?
These are a couple of the highest scoring teams in the league, but we?re anticipating a defensive goaltenders battle this evening. Corey Crawford gets the call in net for the visitors and he stopped 35 of 38 shots in a 4-3 OT win over the Wild earlier in the year. He?ll be opposed by perhaps the best goatlender in the league in Devan Dubnyk, who backstops a defense which allows just 2.3 GPG, ranked second overall. Note that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Minnesota has seen the total go UNDER in six of ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. With these two world class goaltenders going head-to-head on Tuesday night, we?re going to recommend a second look at the UNDER in this particular matchup.
Blackhawks vs. Wild
Play: Wild -135
The Minnesota Wild will host the Chicago Blackhaws in a Central Division showdown Tuesday night. The Wild are sitting top of the division, seven points ahead of the Hawks in second, and they're 11-2 in their last 13 vs. Central Division foes. They had won six straight head-to-head meetings with the Blackhawks prior to a 4-3 OT setback here at Xcel Energy Center on Feb. 8, and I like them to reestablish their dominance in the series tonight.
The Blackhawks have played seven of their last eight games on the road, and I think they'll come out flat here as they play their third game in four nights. The Wild meanwhile are playing on two days rest (they're 4-0 in their last four games playing on 2 days rest) and my money is on the home team in this contest.
Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Winnipeg Jets +140
The Winnipeg Jets are visiting the ACC tonight and they are getting some nice plus money that we will gladly take. Winnipeg has owned the Leafs and beat them 5-4 in their only matchup of the season. In the last 9 matchups between the clubs the Jets are 8-1. The Leafs are just getting too much love form the oddsmaker tonight as the Jets have won 3 out of their last 4 games. The Leafs have lost 4 out of their last 6 games and with the dominance that the Jets have on the Leafs getting plus 140 at the time of this writing is just too much plus money to pass up.
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Tommy Haas
Pick: Tommy Haas
Very difficult turnaround for Basilashvili here. He suffered an emotionally draining defeat on Sunday, losing the Memphis final 6-1/6-4 to Ryan Harrison. The match was much closer than the scoreline suggests, with Basilashvili the better player overall. He was 0-12 on break point opportunities! To make the situation worse he was a combined 6-36 with a staggering 42 break point chances from the quarter final onwards. He faces a tough opponent in Tommy Haas, a crowd favorite who makes yet another return to the ATP World Tour following injury. His return in Australia was cut short with an injury problem during his first round match v Benoit Paire, but he forced the Frenchman to a first set tiebreak & could easily have won the contest had he not been hampered by shortness of breath. This is likely the 38 year olds final season on the tour, but he retains plenty of shot making ability & expect him to win at least a set here, Basilashvili's game often spouts unforced errors & is likely to get ugly quickly if has any hangover from Sundays meltdown. Take the veteran to cover the spread.
Penn State is 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 conference matchups and 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games overall while the over is 6-2 in their last 8 road games. Penn State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games
The Wolfpack are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Atlantic Coast and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and Yellow Jackets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win
Lundqvist has allowed just 2.1 gpg in his last 10 starts...Price has a 1.86 GAA in his career vs the Rangers...Montreal?s last 10 games have averaged just 4.7 gpg, while the last 10 for the Rangers have put up just 5.4 ppg.
This will be the second straight game in which the Rangers will face a team playing its second game after a bye..teams in 2nd game after the bye are 10-8, 9-3 last 12 (tho 8 of the 12 have been priced as faves)
Rangers lost four of last five games with Montreal; last three series games went over the total. Canadiens won 1-0/5-1 in last two visits to Manhattan. Montreal lost three in row, seven of last eight games; they lost four of last five on road. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Rangers won five in row at home, six of last seven overall; over is 4-2 in their last six home games.
Pittsburgh Penguins are 12-3 in their last 15 games following a loss of three or more goals
Pittsburgh has taken both tilts with Carolina this year, winning 3-2 at PPG Paints Arena on December 28, and 7-1 in Raleigh on January 20. Dating to January 17 last season, the Pens have beaten the Canes five straight times by a combined score of 20-6
Penguins won their last five games with Carolina, winning 2-1/7-1 in last two visits to Raleigh. Under is 5-3-2 in last ten series games. Pittsburgh is 3-4 in its last seven games, losing last two road games, both in OT. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Carolina lost its last four games, outscored 16-3; they?re 2-3 in last five home games. Hurricanes? last three home games stayed under the total.
