07:05 PM [901] TOTAL o10-115 (Atlanta Braves vrs Washington) (Dickey/Ross)
07:05 PM [903] Colorado Rockies +103 ( T Chatwood - R / G Cole - R )
07:10 PM [906] New York Mets +122 ( J Lester - L / Z Wheeler - R )
10:05 PM [919] New York Yankees -137 ( C Sabathia - L / J Ramirez - R )
07:10 PM [924] Boston Red Sox -1.5 -140 ( B Lively - R / D Price - L )
07:10 PM [925] Los Angeles Dodgers -187 ( C Kershaw - L / T Bauer - R )
07:10 PM [928] TOTAL u9-110 (Arizona Diamondbacks vrs Detroit Tigers) (Greinke/Farmer)
10:15 PM [930] TOTAL u7.5 -120 ( Royals vrs San Francisco Giants) (Vargas/Blach)
1 unit bet pays 132 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Bergman has a 7.31 ERA on the road while Gibson sports a 7.25 ERA at home..Seattle's bullpen is 4.53 ERA on the road while Minnesota's bullpen is flat pathetic with a 6.18 ERA at home!
Reds at SD: Lance Barksdale behind the plate here. The Under is 10-2 with Barksdale calling balls and strikes this season, and 30-13-1 since the start of last season.
Tuesday night's comp play is to ride the red-hot Yankees to extend their winning streak to 7 in a row. New York used an Aaron Judge 8th inning, 2 run homer to break a 3-3 tie last night, as the Yankees won their 6th in a row.
New York is now 8-1 the last 9 series meetings, and they will have California-native CC Sabathia on the mound looking to keep his personal run rolling. CC enters this start on a personal 5 game winning streak that has seen him allow just 2 runs or less in all 5 of those starts.
The Yankees are 6-2 in Sabathia's last 8 starts against the Angels, so no need to think too long over this release, especially with JC Ramirez toting in an over 6 ERA for this last 3 starts.
Plenty of transplanted Yankees fans living in Orange County, and they sure made some noise last night when Judge went yard. More noise tonight, as NY stays hot.
yanks TT over? It fits. You'll have a fresh Gary Sanchez back in the lineup after a day off, and the Angels bullpen is a mess for the latter stages, with Parker/Middleton/Norris all off of back-to-backs, and a 3-in-3 that will keep Alvarez out. Ramirez is sitting on a 17.0 HR/FB% over nearly 150 IP the last two seasons, which makes him a rather awkward matchup into the Yankees - with his average fast-ball at 96.0 mph so far, what would be routine fly balls vs. other hitters may become problems vs. this bunch.
Play: Nationals -1?
The Nationals let one get away last night but look for them to bounce right back tonight. Of course I won't lay 2 to 1 odds on the money line but I do feel there is excellent line value here with the Nats on the run line. By laying the 1.5 runs we get a very low price (currently -115) on Washington and, certainly, they should win this one in a rout. The Braves are starting R.A. Dickey and the knuckler tends to struggle when he's throwing into the wind and that is expected to be the case tonight in DC. Also, Dickey was fortunate he allowed just 2 earned runs when he faced the Nationals earlier this season as he did allow 8 hits and 3 walks in just 5 and 1/3 innings in that start. Though he's coming off of a strong start that was a against a bad Phillies team. Now Dickey faces a tough Nationals lineup and he is unlikely to have much run support here. That's because the Nats are starting Joe Ross and he is off of a 4 hit gem where he allowed just 1 earned run and no walks while striking out 12 in 7 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Dickey is 1-3 with a 5.90 ERA in his road starts this season. The Nationals are 3-1 in the 4 home starts Ross has made this season. Washington is 7-2 this season in Tuesday games and, even with last night's tough loss, the Nats are 26-10 in night games on the year. The Braves are 21-36 in Tuesday games the last 3 seasons combined. Look for a home rout here as the Nationals bounce back
Chicago at New York
Pick: New York
The set-up: The Cubs' road woes continued last night at Citi Field, as Chicago lost 6-1 to the Mets. The defending champs have now lost nine straight away from "The Friendly Confines" The Mets have won four straight on the strength of dominant pitching, as New York pitchers have allowed only a single run in each of the team's last four wins. Jay Bruce continued his recent hot streak by going 3-for-3 and hitting his 17th HR plus and Asdrubal Cabrera homered twice. Chicago has now scored only 13 runs in its nine-game road skid, as the teams square off for the second of this three-game series, tonight.
The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (3-4 & 4.13 ERA) goes for career win No. 150 tonight for the Cubs and will be opposed by New York's Zack Wheeler (3-3 & 3.45 ERA). Lester threw his first complete game of 2017 against San Francisco on May 23 but has gone 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA over three starts since (Cubs are 1-2). Lester is 3-2 with a 4.81 ERA in six starts against the Mets (teams are 4-2). Wheeler has been a bright spot in what's been a shaky New York starting staff, having allowed more than two runs only once in his last seven starts, and that was a quality start at Pittsburgh in which he gave up three runs over six innings. He was excellent last Wednesday at Texas, limiting the Rangers to one run on six hits over seven innings, before settling for no-decision. Wheeler has been dominant in two career starts against the Cubs but both came back in 2014 (1.35 ERA and 17 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings!).
The pick: I guess the Cubs will finally win a road game sometime but the Cubs' bats have been eerily silent on the road (again, just 13 runs scored in those nine straight losses). Meanwhile, New York starters have allowed one run or fewer in six straight games. The starters have compiled a 0.87 ERA (four earned runs in 41 1/3 innings) during the streak. Cubs lose, Cubs lose!
The Royals are a solid 19-7 in Interleague road games and should hold off SF in a low scoring game. KC is a strong 16-6 in its last 22 with Vargas starting. Vargas sports a solid 1.83 ERA over his last 3 starts and should paralyze the light hitting Giants' bats; after all, SF drives in a meager 3.31 RPG on a .231 BA vs lefties. On the other hand, the Royals don't make lots of noise against lefties either. They face a pretty good one in Blach, who's been solid all season at home. But the Giants are struggling off wins at 17-42 and just 1-4 in their last 5 vs lefty starters. Give the edge to the Royals here.
Royals at Giants
Pick: Under
This is a good pitcher's park and Kansas City loses the DH for this series. Kansas City can't hit, #29 in baseball in runs scored and the team is 10-4 under the total after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Starter Jason Vargas (8-3, 2.18 ERA) is their best starter, and the Under is 16-5 in Vargas' last 21 starts overall. San Francisco has no offense, either, #28 in runs scored. Starter Ty Blach (3.64 ERA) has very good stuff and has a 1.75 ERA at home. And the Under is 20-9-1 in the Giants last 30 home games.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+105) over Baltimore
Another free winner here last night on the Mets and today we jump on the White Sox at an attractive price. Not only are the Orioles in a serious funk right now, losing five in a row and seven of their last nine, but the pitching staff is a disaster, allowing an incredulous 40 runs in the last three games. That means the bullpen is absolutely gassed and that?s bad news since the relievers have combined to post a 5.54 ERA on the road this year. In fact, the entire Baltimore team struggles away from home, posting a 10-21 road record. The overall numbers for ChiSox starter Derek Holland are not great, but he?s been much better pitching at home where he has posted a 2.74 ERA in four starts. Take the home dog!
Royals vs. Giants
Play: Under 7?
Both clubs show off a day of rest, KC traveling from San Diego, San Francisco retaining home field after stopping Minnesota. The Royals bring vet lefty Vargas (8-3, 2.18) to the hill who has a nice 3-2 mark (2.78) in road outings this season. San Francisco uses left-hander Blach (4-3, 3.53) after the youngster was hit around out in Milwaukee. But, we remind you, the hurler has a super 3-0, 1.87 ERA at the Stick. In the only two meetings this season out in KC, Vargas dropped a heartbreaker to lefty Bumgarner 2-0. With the Giants/Blach 5-1 UNDER at home, and KC 8-1 UNDER in Vargas' road starts.
The Royals are a solid 19-7 in Interleague road games and should hold off SF in a low scoring game. KC is a strong 16-6 in its last 22 with Vargas starting. Vargas sports a solid 1.83 ERA over his last 3 starts and should paralyze the light hitting Giants' bats; after all, SF drives in a meager 3.31 RPG on a .231 BA vs lefties. On the other hand, the Royals don't make lots of noise against lefties either. They face a pretty good one in Blach, who's been solid all season at home. But the Giants are struggling off wins at 17-42 and just 1-4 in their last 5 vs lefty starters. Give the edge to the Royals here.
I'll gladly take my chances on San Francisco in this spot. The Giants are getting zero respect here at home against a Royals team that is a mere 11-18 on the road. For me, I just think there's too much value here with San Francisco sending out Ty Blach. This guy has been spectacular at home this season with a 1.87 ERA in 5 starts. He had a bad start last time out, but it was on the road against a good Brewers offense. While the Royals come in swinging a hot bat, they are far from a good offensive team. KC is averaging 3.8 runs and hitting .238 as a team on the season. It's also been a wise move fading the Royals when priced like they are today, as KC is a mere 4-12 this season in road games with a money line of +125 to -125.
Dodgers vs. Indians
Play: Dodgers -158
Bauer has struggled his last couple of starts. Now, some of that can be chalked up to throwing on two days rest after rain limited him to 1.2 innings against the Royals, but he wasn?t sharp before the delay either. Dealing with Kershaw is no picnic for any team, especially one that is unfamiliar with him. After scuffling against the Cubs, when he gave up a career-high tying 11 hits in 4.1 innings, he?s been razor sharp in his last two outings. That?s enough to tip the scales the Dodgers? way in this contest.
Pitchers to stream
Tyler Chatwood (R), 14 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates: Chatwood has shown himself to be a strong road-only option the last couple years and it doesn't get much better than going to PNC Park. This year he has a 2.53 ERA on the road, going over six innings per start. Since 2013, he has a 2.41 ERA on the road, second to only Clayton Kershaw (2.22) on the road (min. 150 IP). Meanwhile, the Pirates are 22nd in wOBA against righties this year, so it's a park and lineup advantage for Chatwood.
Jharel Cotton (R), 6 percent, Oakland Athletics at Miami Marlins: Cotton hasn't been good this year, but he's been better since his recall and this matchup sets up well for him, if for the stadium alone. The Marlins are also 22nd in wOBA against righties since the start of 2016. They could be without Giancarlo Stanton, too, though he is expected to be OK after being hit in the wrist on Sunday. Cotton does have a 13 percent swinging strike rate in his last five starts, after just an 8 percent mark in five April starts. He seems to be getting the feel back on his stuff, particularly the changeup, and if he can limit the walks, there's a good shot at a quality start here.
Ty Blach (L), 30 percent, San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: I'm skeptical of what Blach has done thus far, posting a 3.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP despite a meager 10 percent strikeout rate and underwhelming stuff. That said, this is a solid matchup to stay hot. Blach has a 1.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and .190 BAA in 36 innings at home while the Royals are 25th in wOBA against lefties.
Pitcher to avoid
Gerrit Cole (R), 91 percent, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: He's been an absolute nightmare for four straight starts yielding a 10.71 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in the 19.3 innings of work. I just have a hard time finding a glimmer of hope in what Cole is doing right now. Meanwhile, the Rockies have the 12th-best wOBA on the road this year; they aren't the rollover of previous years.
The Marlins haven't declared Stanton a "go" so far this morning - it may come down to how he feels during batting practice. But so much of the price being low is Urena, with the markets not buying his 4-2/3.96, with FIP sitting at 5.52, xFIP at 5.66 and SIERA at 5.28. He should break the 200 career innings barrier tonight (197.2 going in), with his full tally in ERA, xFIP and SIERA all at 5+, and FIP nearly there at 4.91. So Urena does force a Miami ticket to be a work-around, although that is showing in the price point.
In the Sights, Wednesday MLB?
The ball was jumping off the bat at Nationals Park on Monday evening, as it often does when it gets hot in the summer. Now it will be hot again with a bit of a hitter?s breeze to right-center; the quality of the starting pitchers falls way down; and the bullpens remain just as bad, perhaps even a bit worse off of last night?s workload. That calls for #902 Washington/Atlanta Over (7:05 Eastern) to go into pocket, with 9.5 available across the board in the morning trading.
Dusty Baker has a huge headache ? his bullpen is a mess right now, made worse by Koda Glover going on the DL. For the full season it has been a 5.11 ERA (#28) and 4.79 FIP (#27), but in June those counts have ballooned to 6.46 and 5.75. It isn?t as though there is anywhere to turn, which Baker openly acknowledged after last night?s defeat - ?Come on man, how many times we covered this before? I?m serious ? it?s been a case-by-case basis every day. We need some help. We need some help big time. We?ve been knowing that all along.? And the inconsistency of starter Joe Ross, who has failed to finish the fifth inning in four of his seven starts, does not aid that cause.
Meanwhile time may be running out on R.A. Dickey. His 4-4/4.73 does not look awful, which helps bring this price point, but there are problems galore, which FIP (5.78), xFIP (5.36) and SIERA (5.52) all recognize. There just isn?t enough movement on his knuckler anymore, his K% down to a dangerously low 12.4, and SWS% to 6.9, both career worsts by far, and the lack of movement shows in two negative categories in the opposite direction ? BB% is a career-high 10.6, and O-Swing% a career-low 26.6. Opposing hitters are getting good reads on Dickey?s pitches, and simply not offering at much outside of the zone. And to make matters worse tonight, his HR/FB rate of 16.7 is yet another category that is a career-worst, making him vulnerable to the conditions. There is absolutely nothing special about the bullpen behind him, that group facing the prospect of being without Sam Freeman and Jason Hursh because of their Monday workloads.
Rockies vs. Pirates
Play:Rockies +108
I cashed the Pirates yesterday behind Jameson Taillon, but I'm fading them today against the Colorado Rockies. I think the Rockies are the better team with the better starter in this matchup, and we're getting an underdog price to boot.
This entire Rockies staff has been underrated this season. Tyler Chatwood fits the bill, especially on the road where he has gone 4-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in seven starts away from home. Chatwood has also posted a 1.50 ERA in one career start against Pittsburgh.
Gerrit Cole is an absolute mess right now. He has gone 1-1 with an 11.04 ERA and 2.249 WHIP in his last three starts, giving up 18 earned runs, 6 homers and 31 base runners in 14 2/3 innings. Now he's up against a potent Rockies lineup that is scoring 5.6 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.
The Rockies are 23-9 in their last 32 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Colorado is 15-6 in Chatwood's last 21 road starts. The Pirates are 8-17 in Cole's last 25 starts. Pittsburgh is 2-7 in Cole's last nine home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Play: Yankees -128
I'll be the first to admit that I thought C.C. Sabathia was never going to pitch like an ace again, but there's no denying he's a different pitcher in 2017. Sabathia enters with a 7-2 record to go with a solid 3.66 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 12 starts (10-2 team record). He's been even better on the road, posting a 2.92 ERA in 7 road starts. He also comes in red-hot, having gone 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA in his last 3 starts. While not elite numbers, that's too good to pass up on when you factor in the odds here, not to mention the Yankees are rolling right now. New York is riding a 6-game winning streak, where they have totaled 10 or more hits in all 6 wins.
The Angels have played better than I expected since Trout's injury, but are still a mere 5-6 in their last 11. LA will send out J.C. Ramirez, who is in a funk right now. In his last two starts he's given up 11 runs on 18 hits in just 9 1/3 innings of work. That's not the form you want to be in, facing this Yankees offense. It's not just the offense that is clicking for New York. The Yankees bullpen has been on top of their game and that's worth noting. The Yankees are 17-1 this season when they come into a game with a bullpen ERA of 2.00 or less over their last 5 games.
Tampa Bay +144 over TORONTO
With a reputation of consistently out-pitching his skills, Marco Estrada has been on our fade radar for at least a couple of years now but you may have noticed we have not faded him as much this year. That?s because his skills this year are actually better than ever in terms of strikeouts. In fact, Estrada has struck out 90 batters in 78 innings while throwing more strikes than ever before too. Our knock on Estrada was that he was all luck. We called him an extreme fly-ball pitcher with horrible command and and that was all true at the time. Here?s where it gets a little more interesting. Estrada led MLB in changeups thrown in 2016 and he's throwing even more of them now (28% of pitches in 2016; 36% in 2017). The pitch has produced an 18% swing and miss rate on its own. He's throwing a lot more strikes, too and his command sits at its highest level in years. His sub-indicators suggest it can stick but it?s not working to his advantage. You see, because he throws 89 MPH, batters were chasing pitches outside the zone and helping him out. The fact that he?s throwing more strikes has hurt him. Furthermore, batters can sit on the changeup all day long because they know they are going to get one. Hitters are laying back on Estrada and the result is an alarming 26% line-drive rate. Estrada?s batted ball profile of 30% grounders, 26% line-drives and 44% fly-balls is wretched. His luck has run out after two years and we?ll say it again that allowing warning track shots is not a skill. Lastly, these Rays know him well and have hit him well too with a combined team BA against Estrada of .301 in 155 AB?s with eight jacks. Estrada?s ERA/xERA over his past five starts is 5.59/4.66.
Jacob Faria was leading the International League in strikeouts prior to his promotion and his deception could continue to help him register swings-and-misses at the major league level. He is a tall righty who throws downhill and uses his 88-94 mph sinker to induce his fair share of groundballs. He shows an outstanding feel for changing speeds and has the confidence to use his plus changeup in any count. Faria has success pitching backwards at times and uses his change-up to set up his other offerings. In his first start against the South Side last week, Faris threw six sweet innings of three hit ball with a BAA of .142, a WHIP of 0.79 and an xERA of 2.26. He walked one and struck out five. Of course, this isn?t the White Sox he?ll be facing but he catches the Blue Jays returning home from a West Coast trip and a day off and that?s a favorable spot for any pitcher. Faria put up great numbers in his minor league career with a 3.13 ERA, 9.8 K?s/9 and an oppBA of .204. Rookie pitchers are always risky but this one has the talent to be sure and in this case, the risk is worth the reward.
Seattle +111 over MINNESOTA
Christian Bergman was a 24th round pick in 2010 and has only appeared in 62 games at this level in his career with only 21 of those being of the starting variety. Bergman is not a flamethrower or dominant pitcher. Rather, he is more or less a finesse righty with good command of an average pitch mix. The attribute that sets him apart is his ability to locate all four of his offerings. His fastball only sits between 86-91 mph, but he sequences his pitches to the point where his fastball appears quicker than it is. His best pitch is a change-up that features late movement and keeps hitters guessing. Don't expect much in the way of strikeouts, but he can eat innings, keep walks to a minimum, and induce some grounders. In 38 innings this season over six starts and one relief appearance, Bergman has a BB/K split of 12/26 with an ERA/xERA split of 4.02/4.47. His chances of getting whacked here are good but we?re not going to worry about that. Seattle has a hot offense, the better bullpen and there are few pitchers in this league that we would not back when taking back a price against Kyle Gibson.
Kyle Gibson?s last start was in Seattle. He went six full in that start and allowed just five hits and one run. The Twinkies won that game 2-1 and now Gibson will face that same team again. We promise different results this time. We don?t promise a Mariners victory but we can almost guarantee with certainty that Kyle Gibson has two chances of throwing a good game here---slim and none and slim just left the ballpark. Gibson has never been able to build on his promise. Read any publication prior to the start of any season and you?ll likely find Gibson in there as a breakout target only it never happens and it?s getting worse. Well, we?re DONE chilling with the band. Gibson is what he is, which is a weak pitcher that throws 91 MPH fastballs right down the middle. In 48 painful innings this season, Gibson has walked 26 and struck out 35. His WHIP is 1.82 so he?s always pitching in and out of trouble. Gibson is a nibbler that rarely puts away batters when he has them in favorable counts. With a 6.52/5.93 ERA/xERA split, it?s time to stop speculating on this pure stiff and just fade him every time he takes the hill, especially at home.
Orioles at White Sox
Play: Over 10.5
The Orioles are getting roasted on the road. They've lost eight straight away games and 13 of their last 15. And it's not like they're not hitting. They average 4.6 road runs, but allow 6.2 runs a game to the home team. The O's allow those home teams to hit .301. You can't win many games when the pitching is that bad. Alec Asher and Derek Holland have looked shaky over their past couple of starts. The top play here is the Over and I've made a smaller wager on the Sox to win.
SAN DIEGO +102 over Cincinnati
The Padres have been tough at home all season long while the Reds are one of the worst road teams in baseball with 10 wins in 29 games. That San Diego is a home pup here against Scott Feldman is incorrect. Feldman doesn't look like an attractive option at all. For one, he doesn't miss many bats, ranking in the bottom 10 in K-rate in both 2014 and 2015 (min. 100 IP) and bottom 20 in swing and miss rate both years. He spent the vast majority of the 2016 season working out of the bullpen, as he made just five starts on the year. He?s made 13 starts this year and has a respectable 4.09 ERA but his walk to strikeout ratio is not respectable and neither is his 7% swing and miss rate. Feldman has walked 25 while striking out 56 in 73 innings. His 32% line-drive rate is third worst in MLB. His recent history is a strong indication that regression is on the way. With all those hits and batted balls in play, Feldman can thank something for his strand %. At the end of the day, too many things have to go right for him to have success. Take your chances elsewhere.
Clayton Richard is risky too but he?s not the dog here and there are some things to like about him. For one, his 58% groundball rate is the sixth best mark in MLB. His 3.61 xERA is almost a full run lower than his actual ERA of 4.54. This is a guy that started last year with the Cubbies then seemed to hit his stride as a member of the Padres starting rotation last August by amassing a 2.41 ERA in nine starts (52.1 IP) down the stretch. He?s a pitcher that can work quick innings too because of all those groundballs. We?re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that Richard is worth more than his numbers say. He?s always a risk because his dominant start/disaster start split over the past three years of 32%/24% says so. However, he and the Padres are still a much better option at home taking back a price than Feldman and the Reds are on the road spotting one.
07:05 PM [903] Colorado Rockies +103 ( T Chatwood - R / G Cole - R )
07:10 PM [906] New York Mets +122 ( J Lester - L / Z Wheeler - R )
10:05 PM [919] New York Yankees -137 ( C Sabathia - L / J Ramirez - R )
07:10 PM [924] Boston Red Sox -1.5 -140 ( B Lively - R / D Price - L )
07:10 PM [925] Los Angeles Dodgers -187 ( C Kershaw - L / T Bauer - R )
07:10 PM [928] TOTAL u9-110 (Arizona Diamondbacks vrs Detroit Tigers) (Greinke/Farmer)
10:15 PM [930] TOTAL u7.5 -120 ( Royals vrs San Francisco Giants) (Vargas/Blach)
1 unit bet pays 132 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Bergman has a 7.31 ERA on the road while Gibson sports a 7.25 ERA at home..Seattle's bullpen is 4.53 ERA on the road while Minnesota's bullpen is flat pathetic with a 6.18 ERA at home!
Reds at SD: Lance Barksdale behind the plate here. The Under is 10-2 with Barksdale calling balls and strikes this season, and 30-13-1 since the start of last season.
Tuesday night's comp play is to ride the red-hot Yankees to extend their winning streak to 7 in a row. New York used an Aaron Judge 8th inning, 2 run homer to break a 3-3 tie last night, as the Yankees won their 6th in a row.
New York is now 8-1 the last 9 series meetings, and they will have California-native CC Sabathia on the mound looking to keep his personal run rolling. CC enters this start on a personal 5 game winning streak that has seen him allow just 2 runs or less in all 5 of those starts.
The Yankees are 6-2 in Sabathia's last 8 starts against the Angels, so no need to think too long over this release, especially with JC Ramirez toting in an over 6 ERA for this last 3 starts.
Plenty of transplanted Yankees fans living in Orange County, and they sure made some noise last night when Judge went yard. More noise tonight, as NY stays hot.
yanks TT over? It fits. You'll have a fresh Gary Sanchez back in the lineup after a day off, and the Angels bullpen is a mess for the latter stages, with Parker/Middleton/Norris all off of back-to-backs, and a 3-in-3 that will keep Alvarez out. Ramirez is sitting on a 17.0 HR/FB% over nearly 150 IP the last two seasons, which makes him a rather awkward matchup into the Yankees - with his average fast-ball at 96.0 mph so far, what would be routine fly balls vs. other hitters may become problems vs. this bunch.
Play: Nationals -1?
The Nationals let one get away last night but look for them to bounce right back tonight. Of course I won't lay 2 to 1 odds on the money line but I do feel there is excellent line value here with the Nats on the run line. By laying the 1.5 runs we get a very low price (currently -115) on Washington and, certainly, they should win this one in a rout. The Braves are starting R.A. Dickey and the knuckler tends to struggle when he's throwing into the wind and that is expected to be the case tonight in DC. Also, Dickey was fortunate he allowed just 2 earned runs when he faced the Nationals earlier this season as he did allow 8 hits and 3 walks in just 5 and 1/3 innings in that start. Though he's coming off of a strong start that was a against a bad Phillies team. Now Dickey faces a tough Nationals lineup and he is unlikely to have much run support here. That's because the Nats are starting Joe Ross and he is off of a 4 hit gem where he allowed just 1 earned run and no walks while striking out 12 in 7 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Dickey is 1-3 with a 5.90 ERA in his road starts this season. The Nationals are 3-1 in the 4 home starts Ross has made this season. Washington is 7-2 this season in Tuesday games and, even with last night's tough loss, the Nats are 26-10 in night games on the year. The Braves are 21-36 in Tuesday games the last 3 seasons combined. Look for a home rout here as the Nationals bounce back
Chicago at New York
Pick: New York
The set-up: The Cubs' road woes continued last night at Citi Field, as Chicago lost 6-1 to the Mets. The defending champs have now lost nine straight away from "The Friendly Confines" The Mets have won four straight on the strength of dominant pitching, as New York pitchers have allowed only a single run in each of the team's last four wins. Jay Bruce continued his recent hot streak by going 3-for-3 and hitting his 17th HR plus and Asdrubal Cabrera homered twice. Chicago has now scored only 13 runs in its nine-game road skid, as the teams square off for the second of this three-game series, tonight.
The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (3-4 & 4.13 ERA) goes for career win No. 150 tonight for the Cubs and will be opposed by New York's Zack Wheeler (3-3 & 3.45 ERA). Lester threw his first complete game of 2017 against San Francisco on May 23 but has gone 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA over three starts since (Cubs are 1-2). Lester is 3-2 with a 4.81 ERA in six starts against the Mets (teams are 4-2). Wheeler has been a bright spot in what's been a shaky New York starting staff, having allowed more than two runs only once in his last seven starts, and that was a quality start at Pittsburgh in which he gave up three runs over six innings. He was excellent last Wednesday at Texas, limiting the Rangers to one run on six hits over seven innings, before settling for no-decision. Wheeler has been dominant in two career starts against the Cubs but both came back in 2014 (1.35 ERA and 17 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings!).
The pick: I guess the Cubs will finally win a road game sometime but the Cubs' bats have been eerily silent on the road (again, just 13 runs scored in those nine straight losses). Meanwhile, New York starters have allowed one run or fewer in six straight games. The starters have compiled a 0.87 ERA (four earned runs in 41 1/3 innings) during the streak. Cubs lose, Cubs lose!
The Royals are a solid 19-7 in Interleague road games and should hold off SF in a low scoring game. KC is a strong 16-6 in its last 22 with Vargas starting. Vargas sports a solid 1.83 ERA over his last 3 starts and should paralyze the light hitting Giants' bats; after all, SF drives in a meager 3.31 RPG on a .231 BA vs lefties. On the other hand, the Royals don't make lots of noise against lefties either. They face a pretty good one in Blach, who's been solid all season at home. But the Giants are struggling off wins at 17-42 and just 1-4 in their last 5 vs lefty starters. Give the edge to the Royals here.
Royals at Giants
Pick: Under
This is a good pitcher's park and Kansas City loses the DH for this series. Kansas City can't hit, #29 in baseball in runs scored and the team is 10-4 under the total after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Starter Jason Vargas (8-3, 2.18 ERA) is their best starter, and the Under is 16-5 in Vargas' last 21 starts overall. San Francisco has no offense, either, #28 in runs scored. Starter Ty Blach (3.64 ERA) has very good stuff and has a 1.75 ERA at home. And the Under is 20-9-1 in the Giants last 30 home games.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+105) over Baltimore
Another free winner here last night on the Mets and today we jump on the White Sox at an attractive price. Not only are the Orioles in a serious funk right now, losing five in a row and seven of their last nine, but the pitching staff is a disaster, allowing an incredulous 40 runs in the last three games. That means the bullpen is absolutely gassed and that?s bad news since the relievers have combined to post a 5.54 ERA on the road this year. In fact, the entire Baltimore team struggles away from home, posting a 10-21 road record. The overall numbers for ChiSox starter Derek Holland are not great, but he?s been much better pitching at home where he has posted a 2.74 ERA in four starts. Take the home dog!
Royals vs. Giants
Play: Under 7?
Both clubs show off a day of rest, KC traveling from San Diego, San Francisco retaining home field after stopping Minnesota. The Royals bring vet lefty Vargas (8-3, 2.18) to the hill who has a nice 3-2 mark (2.78) in road outings this season. San Francisco uses left-hander Blach (4-3, 3.53) after the youngster was hit around out in Milwaukee. But, we remind you, the hurler has a super 3-0, 1.87 ERA at the Stick. In the only two meetings this season out in KC, Vargas dropped a heartbreaker to lefty Bumgarner 2-0. With the Giants/Blach 5-1 UNDER at home, and KC 8-1 UNDER in Vargas' road starts.
The Royals are a solid 19-7 in Interleague road games and should hold off SF in a low scoring game. KC is a strong 16-6 in its last 22 with Vargas starting. Vargas sports a solid 1.83 ERA over his last 3 starts and should paralyze the light hitting Giants' bats; after all, SF drives in a meager 3.31 RPG on a .231 BA vs lefties. On the other hand, the Royals don't make lots of noise against lefties either. They face a pretty good one in Blach, who's been solid all season at home. But the Giants are struggling off wins at 17-42 and just 1-4 in their last 5 vs lefty starters. Give the edge to the Royals here.
I'll gladly take my chances on San Francisco in this spot. The Giants are getting zero respect here at home against a Royals team that is a mere 11-18 on the road. For me, I just think there's too much value here with San Francisco sending out Ty Blach. This guy has been spectacular at home this season with a 1.87 ERA in 5 starts. He had a bad start last time out, but it was on the road against a good Brewers offense. While the Royals come in swinging a hot bat, they are far from a good offensive team. KC is averaging 3.8 runs and hitting .238 as a team on the season. It's also been a wise move fading the Royals when priced like they are today, as KC is a mere 4-12 this season in road games with a money line of +125 to -125.
Dodgers vs. Indians
Play: Dodgers -158
Bauer has struggled his last couple of starts. Now, some of that can be chalked up to throwing on two days rest after rain limited him to 1.2 innings against the Royals, but he wasn?t sharp before the delay either. Dealing with Kershaw is no picnic for any team, especially one that is unfamiliar with him. After scuffling against the Cubs, when he gave up a career-high tying 11 hits in 4.1 innings, he?s been razor sharp in his last two outings. That?s enough to tip the scales the Dodgers? way in this contest.
Pitchers to stream
Tyler Chatwood (R), 14 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates: Chatwood has shown himself to be a strong road-only option the last couple years and it doesn't get much better than going to PNC Park. This year he has a 2.53 ERA on the road, going over six innings per start. Since 2013, he has a 2.41 ERA on the road, second to only Clayton Kershaw (2.22) on the road (min. 150 IP). Meanwhile, the Pirates are 22nd in wOBA against righties this year, so it's a park and lineup advantage for Chatwood.
Jharel Cotton (R), 6 percent, Oakland Athletics at Miami Marlins: Cotton hasn't been good this year, but he's been better since his recall and this matchup sets up well for him, if for the stadium alone. The Marlins are also 22nd in wOBA against righties since the start of 2016. They could be without Giancarlo Stanton, too, though he is expected to be OK after being hit in the wrist on Sunday. Cotton does have a 13 percent swinging strike rate in his last five starts, after just an 8 percent mark in five April starts. He seems to be getting the feel back on his stuff, particularly the changeup, and if he can limit the walks, there's a good shot at a quality start here.
Ty Blach (L), 30 percent, San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: I'm skeptical of what Blach has done thus far, posting a 3.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP despite a meager 10 percent strikeout rate and underwhelming stuff. That said, this is a solid matchup to stay hot. Blach has a 1.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and .190 BAA in 36 innings at home while the Royals are 25th in wOBA against lefties.
Pitcher to avoid
Gerrit Cole (R), 91 percent, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: He's been an absolute nightmare for four straight starts yielding a 10.71 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in the 19.3 innings of work. I just have a hard time finding a glimmer of hope in what Cole is doing right now. Meanwhile, the Rockies have the 12th-best wOBA on the road this year; they aren't the rollover of previous years.
The Marlins haven't declared Stanton a "go" so far this morning - it may come down to how he feels during batting practice. But so much of the price being low is Urena, with the markets not buying his 4-2/3.96, with FIP sitting at 5.52, xFIP at 5.66 and SIERA at 5.28. He should break the 200 career innings barrier tonight (197.2 going in), with his full tally in ERA, xFIP and SIERA all at 5+, and FIP nearly there at 4.91. So Urena does force a Miami ticket to be a work-around, although that is showing in the price point.
In the Sights, Wednesday MLB?
The ball was jumping off the bat at Nationals Park on Monday evening, as it often does when it gets hot in the summer. Now it will be hot again with a bit of a hitter?s breeze to right-center; the quality of the starting pitchers falls way down; and the bullpens remain just as bad, perhaps even a bit worse off of last night?s workload. That calls for #902 Washington/Atlanta Over (7:05 Eastern) to go into pocket, with 9.5 available across the board in the morning trading.
Dusty Baker has a huge headache ? his bullpen is a mess right now, made worse by Koda Glover going on the DL. For the full season it has been a 5.11 ERA (#28) and 4.79 FIP (#27), but in June those counts have ballooned to 6.46 and 5.75. It isn?t as though there is anywhere to turn, which Baker openly acknowledged after last night?s defeat - ?Come on man, how many times we covered this before? I?m serious ? it?s been a case-by-case basis every day. We need some help. We need some help big time. We?ve been knowing that all along.? And the inconsistency of starter Joe Ross, who has failed to finish the fifth inning in four of his seven starts, does not aid that cause.
Meanwhile time may be running out on R.A. Dickey. His 4-4/4.73 does not look awful, which helps bring this price point, but there are problems galore, which FIP (5.78), xFIP (5.36) and SIERA (5.52) all recognize. There just isn?t enough movement on his knuckler anymore, his K% down to a dangerously low 12.4, and SWS% to 6.9, both career worsts by far, and the lack of movement shows in two negative categories in the opposite direction ? BB% is a career-high 10.6, and O-Swing% a career-low 26.6. Opposing hitters are getting good reads on Dickey?s pitches, and simply not offering at much outside of the zone. And to make matters worse tonight, his HR/FB rate of 16.7 is yet another category that is a career-worst, making him vulnerable to the conditions. There is absolutely nothing special about the bullpen behind him, that group facing the prospect of being without Sam Freeman and Jason Hursh because of their Monday workloads.
Rockies vs. Pirates
Play:Rockies +108
I cashed the Pirates yesterday behind Jameson Taillon, but I'm fading them today against the Colorado Rockies. I think the Rockies are the better team with the better starter in this matchup, and we're getting an underdog price to boot.
This entire Rockies staff has been underrated this season. Tyler Chatwood fits the bill, especially on the road where he has gone 4-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in seven starts away from home. Chatwood has also posted a 1.50 ERA in one career start against Pittsburgh.
Gerrit Cole is an absolute mess right now. He has gone 1-1 with an 11.04 ERA and 2.249 WHIP in his last three starts, giving up 18 earned runs, 6 homers and 31 base runners in 14 2/3 innings. Now he's up against a potent Rockies lineup that is scoring 5.6 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.
The Rockies are 23-9 in their last 32 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Colorado is 15-6 in Chatwood's last 21 road starts. The Pirates are 8-17 in Cole's last 25 starts. Pittsburgh is 2-7 in Cole's last nine home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Play: Yankees -128
I'll be the first to admit that I thought C.C. Sabathia was never going to pitch like an ace again, but there's no denying he's a different pitcher in 2017. Sabathia enters with a 7-2 record to go with a solid 3.66 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 12 starts (10-2 team record). He's been even better on the road, posting a 2.92 ERA in 7 road starts. He also comes in red-hot, having gone 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA in his last 3 starts. While not elite numbers, that's too good to pass up on when you factor in the odds here, not to mention the Yankees are rolling right now. New York is riding a 6-game winning streak, where they have totaled 10 or more hits in all 6 wins.
The Angels have played better than I expected since Trout's injury, but are still a mere 5-6 in their last 11. LA will send out J.C. Ramirez, who is in a funk right now. In his last two starts he's given up 11 runs on 18 hits in just 9 1/3 innings of work. That's not the form you want to be in, facing this Yankees offense. It's not just the offense that is clicking for New York. The Yankees bullpen has been on top of their game and that's worth noting. The Yankees are 17-1 this season when they come into a game with a bullpen ERA of 2.00 or less over their last 5 games.
Tampa Bay +144 over TORONTO
With a reputation of consistently out-pitching his skills, Marco Estrada has been on our fade radar for at least a couple of years now but you may have noticed we have not faded him as much this year. That?s because his skills this year are actually better than ever in terms of strikeouts. In fact, Estrada has struck out 90 batters in 78 innings while throwing more strikes than ever before too. Our knock on Estrada was that he was all luck. We called him an extreme fly-ball pitcher with horrible command and and that was all true at the time. Here?s where it gets a little more interesting. Estrada led MLB in changeups thrown in 2016 and he's throwing even more of them now (28% of pitches in 2016; 36% in 2017). The pitch has produced an 18% swing and miss rate on its own. He's throwing a lot more strikes, too and his command sits at its highest level in years. His sub-indicators suggest it can stick but it?s not working to his advantage. You see, because he throws 89 MPH, batters were chasing pitches outside the zone and helping him out. The fact that he?s throwing more strikes has hurt him. Furthermore, batters can sit on the changeup all day long because they know they are going to get one. Hitters are laying back on Estrada and the result is an alarming 26% line-drive rate. Estrada?s batted ball profile of 30% grounders, 26% line-drives and 44% fly-balls is wretched. His luck has run out after two years and we?ll say it again that allowing warning track shots is not a skill. Lastly, these Rays know him well and have hit him well too with a combined team BA against Estrada of .301 in 155 AB?s with eight jacks. Estrada?s ERA/xERA over his past five starts is 5.59/4.66.
Jacob Faria was leading the International League in strikeouts prior to his promotion and his deception could continue to help him register swings-and-misses at the major league level. He is a tall righty who throws downhill and uses his 88-94 mph sinker to induce his fair share of groundballs. He shows an outstanding feel for changing speeds and has the confidence to use his plus changeup in any count. Faria has success pitching backwards at times and uses his change-up to set up his other offerings. In his first start against the South Side last week, Faris threw six sweet innings of three hit ball with a BAA of .142, a WHIP of 0.79 and an xERA of 2.26. He walked one and struck out five. Of course, this isn?t the White Sox he?ll be facing but he catches the Blue Jays returning home from a West Coast trip and a day off and that?s a favorable spot for any pitcher. Faria put up great numbers in his minor league career with a 3.13 ERA, 9.8 K?s/9 and an oppBA of .204. Rookie pitchers are always risky but this one has the talent to be sure and in this case, the risk is worth the reward.
Seattle +111 over MINNESOTA
Christian Bergman was a 24th round pick in 2010 and has only appeared in 62 games at this level in his career with only 21 of those being of the starting variety. Bergman is not a flamethrower or dominant pitcher. Rather, he is more or less a finesse righty with good command of an average pitch mix. The attribute that sets him apart is his ability to locate all four of his offerings. His fastball only sits between 86-91 mph, but he sequences his pitches to the point where his fastball appears quicker than it is. His best pitch is a change-up that features late movement and keeps hitters guessing. Don't expect much in the way of strikeouts, but he can eat innings, keep walks to a minimum, and induce some grounders. In 38 innings this season over six starts and one relief appearance, Bergman has a BB/K split of 12/26 with an ERA/xERA split of 4.02/4.47. His chances of getting whacked here are good but we?re not going to worry about that. Seattle has a hot offense, the better bullpen and there are few pitchers in this league that we would not back when taking back a price against Kyle Gibson.
Kyle Gibson?s last start was in Seattle. He went six full in that start and allowed just five hits and one run. The Twinkies won that game 2-1 and now Gibson will face that same team again. We promise different results this time. We don?t promise a Mariners victory but we can almost guarantee with certainty that Kyle Gibson has two chances of throwing a good game here---slim and none and slim just left the ballpark. Gibson has never been able to build on his promise. Read any publication prior to the start of any season and you?ll likely find Gibson in there as a breakout target only it never happens and it?s getting worse. Well, we?re DONE chilling with the band. Gibson is what he is, which is a weak pitcher that throws 91 MPH fastballs right down the middle. In 48 painful innings this season, Gibson has walked 26 and struck out 35. His WHIP is 1.82 so he?s always pitching in and out of trouble. Gibson is a nibbler that rarely puts away batters when he has them in favorable counts. With a 6.52/5.93 ERA/xERA split, it?s time to stop speculating on this pure stiff and just fade him every time he takes the hill, especially at home.
Orioles at White Sox
Play: Over 10.5
The Orioles are getting roasted on the road. They've lost eight straight away games and 13 of their last 15. And it's not like they're not hitting. They average 4.6 road runs, but allow 6.2 runs a game to the home team. The O's allow those home teams to hit .301. You can't win many games when the pitching is that bad. Alec Asher and Derek Holland have looked shaky over their past couple of starts. The top play here is the Over and I've made a smaller wager on the Sox to win.
SAN DIEGO +102 over Cincinnati
The Padres have been tough at home all season long while the Reds are one of the worst road teams in baseball with 10 wins in 29 games. That San Diego is a home pup here against Scott Feldman is incorrect. Feldman doesn't look like an attractive option at all. For one, he doesn't miss many bats, ranking in the bottom 10 in K-rate in both 2014 and 2015 (min. 100 IP) and bottom 20 in swing and miss rate both years. He spent the vast majority of the 2016 season working out of the bullpen, as he made just five starts on the year. He?s made 13 starts this year and has a respectable 4.09 ERA but his walk to strikeout ratio is not respectable and neither is his 7% swing and miss rate. Feldman has walked 25 while striking out 56 in 73 innings. His 32% line-drive rate is third worst in MLB. His recent history is a strong indication that regression is on the way. With all those hits and batted balls in play, Feldman can thank something for his strand %. At the end of the day, too many things have to go right for him to have success. Take your chances elsewhere.
Clayton Richard is risky too but he?s not the dog here and there are some things to like about him. For one, his 58% groundball rate is the sixth best mark in MLB. His 3.61 xERA is almost a full run lower than his actual ERA of 4.54. This is a guy that started last year with the Cubbies then seemed to hit his stride as a member of the Padres starting rotation last August by amassing a 2.41 ERA in nine starts (52.1 IP) down the stretch. He?s a pitcher that can work quick innings too because of all those groundballs. We?re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that Richard is worth more than his numbers say. He?s always a risk because his dominant start/disaster start split over the past three years of 32%/24% says so. However, he and the Padres are still a much better option at home taking back a price than Feldman and the Reds are on the road spotting one.
