07:05 PM [952] TOTAL u10-120 (Saint Louis Cardinals vrs Phillies) (Leake/Hellickson)
07:40 PM [958] Milwaukee Brewers -105 ( C Kuhl - R / Z Davies - R )
08:40 PM [962] TOTAL u11-110 (Arizona Diamondbacks vrs Rockies) (Greinke/Marquez)
07:05 PM [966] New York Yankees -1.5 -150 ( P Bridwell - R / M Pineda - R )
08:15 PM [974] TOTAL u8-105 (Boston Red Sox vrs Kansas City Royals) (Sale/Strahm)
10:05 PM [976] Oakland Athletics -113 ( F Martes - R / S Gray - R )
07:10 PM [980] Tampa Bay Rays -152 ( A Garrett - L / A Cobb - R )
10:10 PM [1978] TOTAL u5-110 (1H Detroit Tigers vrs 1H Seattle Mariners) (Zimmermann/Miranda)
1 unit bet pays 128 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
I see Sale is coming off an 8 inning, 10 SO, 1 ER gem @ PHI -- which his team lost 0-1 as a hefty -255 favorite! (reminds me of his days back in Chicago)....Royals haven't been very good at home vs lefties (maybe under here is a good bet) but current Royal batters are very familiar with Chris Sale - with 350 at bats vs Sale, 108 hits, good for a .309 batting average...Royals' starter Strahm has given up one run in his last 13 innings.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Robert Gsellman has never faced Dodgers, but he last pitched at this stadium in 2009, leading his Westchester Los Angeles HS team to a city championship. Tonight I read he will "pitch in front of his grandmother for the first time" as a pro....plus, he has a poor start to bounce back from and his opponent on the hill, Brandon McCarthy, sports a strong 3.14 ERA this season, which is no fluke as his 3.19 FIP is supported by other strong peripheral stats...I'm on the under here...
#RedSox - Dustin Pedroia, Back - is not in the starting lineup Tuesday (6/20) at Kansas City
The #Braves are getting nearly 75% of bets, but have gone from -126 to -114 since opening
Zack Greinke - the D-Backs are 7-1 over his past eight starts and 13-6 over his past 19 road assignments.
Michael Pineda - Yankees going 6-0 over his past six home starts against a team with a losing record...The Yanks are also 9-3 over his past 12 outings overall.
The southpaw Moore makes another road start, and that usually doesn't end well for he or the Giants, at least this season. The left-hander is 0-4 with a 9.24 ERA in eight road starts this season, allowing 38 earned runs with seven homers, 19 walks and a .364 opponent batting average over 37 innings...SF is is 3-11 in Moore?s starts [he's even worse vs lefties and AT hits lefties better than RH]
Pirates - The under has hit in five of their past six vs. RHP. The under has also been an impressive 9-1-1 over the past 11 meetings at Miller Park, and 15-5-2 in the past 22 meetings overall.
I know this is going to be weird, but I want to talk about Jordan Zimmermann today, who went a startling 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. Well this is getting interesting as he?s holding a 2.25 ERA over JZ?s last three starts, including the Red Sox and ChiSox. I joke around about how bad Zimmermann is often, but there may actually be something to this. Right before those three outings, Zimmermann said that he?s tweaked his slider grip, which of course made me look at its numbers in these recent starts. Get this, in his previous 10 starts, his Slider got a total of 22 whiffs, an average 2.2 per start. In these last three? 17 whiffs or 5.67 per start. Hmmmmmm. Now, he?s also used the pitch a bunch more as well ? he tossed 33 in both this start and two prior after his previous top two counts were 29 and 21. This is a lot of talk about just one pitch here and I?m not totally sold that this is the renaissance that JZ has been dying for...
Giants vs. Braves
Play:Braves -112
The San Francisco Giants are 26-46 on the season. Oh how far they've fallen as they are 20 games under .500 on the season after losing seven straight, including a 9-0 loss to the Braves yesterday. They just can't do anything right.
Julio Teheran got off to a rough start this season, but he's been much better of late, going 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 3 runs in 13 innings. Teheran is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in five career starts against the Giants.
We'll gladly fade Matt Moore, who is 0-4 with a 9.25 ERA and 2.109 WHIP in eight road starts this season, and 0-1 with an 11.08 ERA and 2.385 WHIP in his last three starts overall. And the Braves have quietly dominated left-handed starters, hitting .298 and scoring 5.3 runs per game against them this season.
The Giants are 1-8 in Moore's last nine road starts. San Francisco is 1-9 in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. NL West opponents. Atlanta is 4-0 in Teheran's last four starts.
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins +109
The Miami Marlins are playing some very good baseball of late. They are 7-4 in their last 11 games and have scored at least 5 runs in nine of those games. They come in with confidence after erasing an early 6-0 deficit to beat the Nationals 7-6 yesterday. Now red-hot starter Edinson Volquez gets the ball after going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his last three starts, which includes a no-hitter. Volquez has owned the Nationals of late, going 1-1 with a 1.44 ERA in his last four starts against them, yielding only 4 earned runs in 25 innings. The Marlins are 10-1 in their last 11 home games.
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Indians -138
The Key: It took a while for the Cleveland Indians to get over their World Series hangover, but they appear to have turned the corner. They have gone 6-0 in their last 6 games while scoring a combined 52 runs in the 6 wins. They have outscored their opponents 52-13 during this stretch. Now they should continue to rake against Chris Tillman, who is 1-5 with an 8.08 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in 8 starts this year, and 0-3 with a 12.09 ERA and 2.53 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Cleveland is 12-1 in road games after batting .315 or better over a 5 game span over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 18-8 in Tomlin's last 26 road starts. The Orioles are 0-5 in Tillman's last 5 starts. Baltimore is 0-7 in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Mariners
I?m creating a -1 line here by splitting my wager between the money line and runs line. ML is right around -145, RL is about +145.
Jordan Zimmermann has gotten it together for the Tigers. But aside from that cautionary note, there?s nothing else I can see here as a good reason not to again go against the Tigers.
Detroit is in turmoil right now, and I really can?t see how Brad Ausmus will be managing the team much longer. There is reportedly a poor clubhouse atmosphere and I don?t think that?s just idol gossip.
The walkoff win a few days ago vs. the Rays was revealing. Cabrera bombs one out to win the game, but you?d have never known it the way he rounded the bases. I also noticed what to me was a clearly irritated Cabrera in Sunday?s game. The Tiger pitcher kept throwing to first in one sequence, and Cabrera glared into the dugout at one point, and looked totally aggravated.
Seattle has lefty Ariel Miranda on the mound and there?s always a concern over his control lapses. But for whatever reason, those issues have been arising on the road and not at Safeco, where Miranda has been outstanding for the most part.
The bottom line here is that Tigers are in fade mode right now, and that?s what I?ll do again here with the play on the Mariners
Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Under 9?
wo of the weaker hitting teams in the league matched up in this one. The Phillies .395 slugging percentage on the season ranks them near the bottom of the majors and the Cardinals .416 mark also ranks them in the lower third of the majors. That said, even though the Cardinals Mike Leake and the Phillies Jeremy Hellickson have had some struggles, they are both fully capable of coming up with solid outings in this spot. Leake shutout the Phillies for 7 innings in his most recent start against them. Hellickson has held the Cardinals to 5 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts versus St Louis and both of them stayed under the total. Leake actually has pitched better on the road compared to at home this season with a 2.95 ERA and 0.96 WHIP and a 4-2 mark in his 6 starts away from home this year. The under is 4-1-1 in those 6 Leake outings. Hellickson is off of a poor start in his most recent outing but he had allowed 3 earned runs or less in 10 of his 13 prior starts! Only 3 of Hellickson's 14 starts this season have resulted in an over. The Phils ocme into this game having had just 2 overs in their last 11 games. The past 3 seasons combined the Cardinals have had 28 road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and only 11 of 28 have resulted in an over. Take advantage of the big O/U posted on this NL match-up.
Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Over 9
Recent form from these starting pitchers suggests that we?ll have a slugfest on our hands in this particular matchup. The Cards turn to Mike Leake (5-5, 2.70 ERA), who gave up six runs off nine hits while striking out just three in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. Leake?s initial season numbers (1.91 ERA, 0.93 WHIP), were obviously unsustainable and the veteran has now allowed 18 runs over his last 24.2 innings of work (posting a 6.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in that span). Jeremy Hellickson (5-5, 4.91) can empathize with his struggling counterpart after getting rocked for six runs off nine hits over five innings, striking out just one and walking three. After a great start to the 2017 campaign, Hellickson has been a disaster, gong 1-5 with a 6.89 ERA over his last nine starts (also a 23:20 K:BB in 47 innings). And note that Hellickson has been poor at home as well this season, just 2-2 with a 5.21 ERA. More questions than answers right now for each of these starters, consider the over.
St. Louis at Philadelphia
Play: St. Louis & Over
Currently ranked among the top 10 qualified starter with a negative ERA-FIP differential (4.91 ERA-5.91 FIP), Philadelphia's Jeremy Hellickson is no doubt fortunate his ERA isn't higher. Like his counterpart tonight, Mike Leake, Hellickson pitched out of his mind the first part of the season (5 starts, 1.80 ERA) but has come crashing down with a near 7.00 ERA over his last nine starts. During that span of 47 innings, the veteran righty has a 23-20 K-to-BB ratio while allowing 13 home runs. He's currently as bad a starter as there is in the National League. Speaking of regression, after posting a sub-2.00 ERA through his first nine starts, Leake has seen his ERA rise well over a run thanks to a 6.20 ERA (24.2 IP, 17 ERs). His overall performance this season, however, is far more "real" than that of Hellickson. Leake currently owns career bests in both groundball rate (54.9%) and swinging strike rate (8.2%). Not to mention that stretch of regression came against four of the NL's better offenses (Cubs, Reds, Dodgers, Brewers). Here he faces a big step down in class with the Phillies near the bottom of MLB in most offensive categories. A lot of the value with both St. Louis (-140 to -160) and total (9 to 9.5) was taken out early but those remain the preferred ways to play this contest.
Houston vs. Oakland
Play: Oakland +110
Edges - A?s: Gray 4-1 career home team starts in this series, including 3-0 the last three; and 4-1 with 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP home team starts as opposed to 0-4 with 5.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP away team starts this season? Astros: Martes off 1st MLB career win in last start? With the host 8-1 in Gray?s starts this season, we recommend a 1* play in Oakland.
Giants vs. Braves
Play:Braves -102
he San Francisco Giants travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves on Tuesday night. San Francisco is 26-46 SU overall this year while Atlanta comes in with a 32-37 SU overall record on the season. Matt Moore is 2-7 with a 6.00 ERA overall this year, 0-4 with a 9.25 ERA on the road this season and 0-1 with an 11.08 ERA his last 3 starts. San Francisco is scoring only 3.7 runs per game overall this year, 3.9 runs per game against right handed starters, 3.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 3.7 runs per game on grass and 3.7 runs per game at night this season. San Francisco is allowing 5.9 runs per game on the road this year and 8 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Atlanta is scoring 7.3 runs per game their past 7 games overall where they have a team batting average of .314. San Francisco is 12-28 on the road this year. San Francisco is 16-31 this year against right handed starters. San Francisco is 6-15 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 17-9 this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Pirates +103
The Pittsburgh Pirates won the series opener 8-1 on Monday, and I think they'll come out strong here in the second game of the set as well.
Chad Kuhl (1-6, 5.61 ERA) takes the ball for the Pirates. The right-hander has had a tough year, and Pittsburgh has lost each of his last four starts. Kuhl himself has pitched pretty well lately though, allowing only six runs on 11 hits in a total of 15 innings through his last three starts combined.
Kuhl is 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA in three career starts against the Brewers who turn to Zach Davies (7-3, 4.91 ERA) who unlike Kuhl has pitched pretty poorly but been bailed out by the Brewers bats.
Davies has conceded a total of eight runs (nine earned) on 13 hits with a pair of homers in 10 innings through his last two starts combined. Davies is 1-2 with a bloated 9.56 ERA in four career starts against Pittsburgh.
Milwaukee is 38-34 on the season, but just 19-21 home at Miller Park. Let's go with the Pirates as Tuesday's free pick.
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -110
Pittsburgh won Monday's matchup, but the Pirates still are 23-63 their last 86 games at Milwaukee. Pittsburgh has lost Chad Kuhl's last six road starts and 10 of his last 13 overall. Kuhl is 1-6 with a 7.38 ERA in night games this season and he has a 5.61 ERA overall. The right-hander has not won a decision since April 8 against Atlanta and hasn't made it past five innings since April 18. Milwaukee has won nine of Zach Davies' last 11 starts and four of his last five home starts. Davies faced the Pirates once this year and allowed two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings. Pittsburgh is 13-20 on the road and 10-20 its last 30 games against NL Central teams. First-place Milwaukee has won five of its last seven games.
Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -135
Just another typical run scoring performance by the red hot Brewers. As Milwaukee recently ripped the St. Louis lineup by swinging hot bats - and taking advantage of well timed plays when they needed it. Brewers really aren't great - but they are playing some decent ball and truthfully, Pittsburgh is just that bad. Kuhl struggles with putting the ball in any of the corners vs decent batters, let alone hot ones. Pittsburgh has had problems with their pitching staff on the whole - and Kuhl isn't going to help that problem here. Pittsburgh should have been good enough with the few good bats they do have - but over the past couple of weeks we see it isn't. Milwaukee wins this one on Tuesday night.
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -143
The Rays lost to the Reds yesterday but Cincinnati had lost 9 straight games prior to that rare road win. On the season the Reds are still just 11-21 in road games. Cincinnati will have Amir Garrett toeing the rubber at Tropicana Field this evening and the southpaw is winless with an 11.17 ERA in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by Tampa Bay's Alex Cobb and the Rays right-hander has a solid 3.27 ERA in his home starts this season. Before the loss yesterday, Tampa had won 5 of their last 6 home games. Also, TB is 8-5 (+3.7 net units) in games where the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs. We look for the Rays to bounce back and quickly send the Reds back to their losing ways. Cobb is the better pitcher and we've got a huge home field edge too considering how badly Cincinnati has played on the road this season. Lastly, the Reds have lost 5 straight Garrett starts and 7 of his last 9. We're happy to lay a very fair price here considering the above factors favoring a home rout in this one.
Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
The set-up: The Indians surged into first place in the AL Central with a four-game sweep of the Twins in Minnesota, where they outscored them 28-8. The Indians then opened a four-game road series at Baltimore last night with a 12-0 pasting of the Orioles. Cleveland has now ripped off six consecutive victories while scoring a total of 52 runs (8.67 per), to move a season-high six games over .500 at 37-31. The Orioles were coming off wins Saturday and Sunday (had nine HRs!) but their pitching staff was ravaged for double-digit runs for the fifth time in 10 games. Baltimore also set an AL record by allowing at least five runs in 16 consecutive games (Orioles are 5-11 in that span). Baltimore was once 22-10 (in games played through May 9) but is now 34-35, having lost 25 of its last 37 games.
The pitching matchup: Two struggling starters take the mound Tuesday night, Josh Tomlin (4-8 & 5.83 ERA) for Cleveland and Chris Tillman (1-5 & 8.07 ERA) for Baltimore. Tomlin was victorious last time out versus the Los Angeles Dodgers but he was hardly impressive in allowing four runs on seven hits over five innings. The Indians are 5-8 in Tomlin's starts this season (he's failed to complete three innings three different times) and on the season, opponents are batting .314 against him. Tomlin is 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA in his career vs. Orioles. Tillman takes the mound mired in a five-start losing streak. He was roughed up for five runs and a season-high 11 hits over 5 1/3 innings at the White Sox last time, which came on the heels of him allowing nine runs in just 1 1/3 innings against the Yankees in his previous outing. Tillman is 5-2 with a 4.17 ERA in eight career starts against the Indians (Baltimore is 5-3).
The pick: Can the Orioles really be this bad? No faith in either of tonight's starters but I'm going to give the home team a shot in this one.
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Over 11
The weather conditions in Baltimore have favored hitters during the Orioles recent home stand. They lost 12-0 to the Indians last night, and each of their last four games has seen at least 12 runs scored. Two struggling pitchers take the mound at Camden Yards tonight, and another slugfest seems likely.
Josh Tomlin will toe the slab for the Tribe, and he hasn't been missing many bats this year. Tomlin (4-8, 5.83 ERA) allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings in a 12-5 home win over the Dodgers his last time out. He hasn't fooled the Orioles, who are hitting a combined .359 over a total of 63 at bats against him in past meetings.
The Orioles hand the ball to Chris Tillman, who has surrendered at least five runs in four straight starts. Tillman (1-5, 8.07 ERA) was torched for five runs on 11 hits over 5 1/3 innings in a loss at Chicago his last time out. He actually has great career numbers versus the Indians, but the veteran seems out of sorts this season.
The Orioles have gone over in seven straight home games, and 13 of their last 16 versus a right-handed starter.
Washington @ Miami
Pick: Miami +110
The Washington Nationals let a 6-0 lead slip away last night, and were walked off by the red-hot Miami Marlins 8-7. The Marlins may be six games under .500, but they have played like a contender over their last 21 games where they are 14-7. Four of their seven losses have come by a single run, and two others by just two runs, so they have been in all but one game right down to the final frame. They have been averaging six runs a game and allowing fewer than four, and on average have won by 2+ runs per contest over their last 21. Better than that, they are 10-1 at home over the stretch with the only blemish to Arizona and Zack Grienke by a one-run margin. The Nationals have been leaking oil at just 5-8 over their last 13.
Astros at Athletics
Pick: Under
Houston has a great pitching staff and heads to Oakland, a huge park, great for hitters. Houston is 9-3-3 under the total on the road. Oakland is one of the worst offensive team in baseball, #23 in runs, #26 in on-base percentage. At least they have their ace going in Sonny Gray, 2-0 at home with a 3.30 ERA. And the Under is 4-1 in Gray's last 5 home starts vs. the Astros.
CLEVELAND -1? +116 over Baltimore
The second-place Indians went into Minnesota this past weekend for a three-day, four-game series at Target Field and swept the Twins out of first place, thoroughly thrashing Minnesota by a 28-8 aggregate score. In less than 48 hours the Twins went from surprising division leaders to looking like merely something that the defending American League champions had to step over on their inevitable climb back to the playoffs. The Indians then went into Baltimore last night and whacked the Orioles 12-0.
Where it all stands now is that the Indians are seeing beach balls at the plate while the Orioles are seeing BB gun pellets. Furthermore, the Orioles are coming to the park with the mindset that they have to score 10 runs or more to win because their pitching staff couldn?t get Bob Barker out right now. Long innings turn into long days. Long days in this summer heat take a bigger toll when a team is losing so frequently. What we have here is two teams with dramatic differences in mindset and it?s not in the Orioles favor. We can?t even imagine what is going through each individual?s mind on the Orioles, knowing they have to endure another start by Chris Tillman.
Shoulder issues plagued Chris Tillman down the stretch in 2016 and they resurfaced this spring, forcing Tillman to miss all of April. The results have been disastrous (8.07 ERA, 2.10 WHIP) through his first eight starts and there is not a single hint that things are going to get better. Never a control artist, Tillman hasn't been able to hit water from the boat in 2017. His awful first-pitch strike rate and Ball% say that he's deserved the 19 walks he?s issued in 36 frames. In a year when most velocities are up?thanks to different measurement technology?Tillman's has sunk. His meager 7% swing and miss rate says the soft-tossing is here to stay. Sure, he's been hit with some bad luck, but Tillman?s 6.97 xERA and his other skills confirm things have gone off the rails. This type of skills collapse typically reeks of a hidden injury, and given Tillman's April shoulder issues, it's likely that something still isn't right with his arm. With a drop in velocity and his inability to throw strikes or miss bats, Tillman is about to face the hottest hitting team in the majors. We know exactly what to do.
N.Y. Mets +167 over LOS ANGELES
Cody Bellinger is the talk of MLB right now with his record breaking 21st jack last night in his first 51 games. The previous record was 20 HR?s in 51 games but the point is with all that hype surrounding a player and team, one will pay a hefty and inflated price to back the Dodgers here with Brandon McCarthy taking the mound. McCarthy is a very decent pitcher but he?s not worthy of a price like this against a healthy and dangerous Mets? lineup that scored six runs against Clayton Kershaw last night.
McCarthy has walked just 17 batters in 63 innings while striking out 51. That?s good, not great. His 3.14 ERA after 11 starts has also influenced this price but his xERA of 3.90 reveals the risk. In fact, McCarthy?s xERA over his past two starts was 6.35. McCarthy is 11 starts into the year after throwing just 26 innings all of last year, 14 months after TJS. A calf injury slowed him down last year, hip woes DLed him and he logged 14 innings (15 runs) afterward. Plenty of recent skills but we?ve seen him fall off a cliff too many times in the past to trust him as this big a favorite in this spot. Yeah, he could pitch well but he could also get blown up, as his 10% swing and miss rate, recent xERA?s and past history suggests.
Last year was a strong debut for a groundball-inducing rookie in a playoff chase. Robert Gsellman?s strikeout rate was higher in the majors than the 6.0 K?s/9 he posted in his 207 IP in the upper minors. On paper, Robert Gsellman has not pitched well in 2017 (5.50 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) but his skills haven't been as bad as his stats might indicate and they've actually been really good over his last five starts with 8.2 K?s/9, 1.8 BB?s/9, 49% grounders and a 3.90 xERA. That xERA is the exact same as McCarthy?s but one of these guys is almost a 2-1 favorite. As value bettors, that makes our choice for this game an easy one.
Pittsburgh +106 over MILWAUKEE
When Zach Davies is favored, he?s instant fade material because he?s always at the mercy of batted balls in play (BABIP). In 73 frames, Davies has a weak BB/K split of 26/51. Our threshold for WHIP is 1.30. Anything above that puts a pitcher at the mercy of his strand rate. Davies WHIP is 1.54 so not only is he at the mercy of BABIP, he?s also at the mercy of his strand rate. Throwing 89 MPH with a pedestrian 8% swing and miss rate, Davies has more value to the Brewers than he has to you. His ERA/xERA split 4.91/4.83 tells us he?s going to allow five runs a game more times than not and that?s always worth fading.
Chad Kuhl is so close to being wickedly good but his surface stats say otherwise.(5.61 ERA, 1.53 WHIP). However, look under the hood and it?s an entirely different story. Kuhl?s skills with the bases empty are outstanding (2.71 xERA) but with runners on they?re not so good (5.22 xERA). With runners on, Kuhl throws more balls and strikes out less batters. That?s not unusual for young starters but with a minor tweak or two, it?s a correctable trait. What sticks out to us is Kuhl?s 14% swing and miss rate and his 51%/17%/32% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his last six starts. Hisa groundball rate in his last start was 67%. Kuhl?s xERA over his last five starts is 3.27. He?s working with the best pitching coach in the league and while his improvements are steadily gradual, they have gone mostly unnoticed. Chad Kuhl can pitch and he?ll now face a Brewers? team that has never seen a pitch they didn?t like. Kuhl is quickly going to turn his skills in an attractive target and we?ll put that to the test here.
COLORADO -1? +171 over Arizona
We?re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado?s home games this season and we?ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it?s the Rocks or the opposition and we?ll be playing it regardless of who?s pitching. We?re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12? range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We?ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
13-16 + 23.40 units
Angels vs. Yankees
Pick: Yankees
Admittedly, this line is getting bet up significantly, so potentially you may want to look at the run line (-1.5). Regardless, I envision an easy win for the team in pinstripes here. Now, it must be pointed out that the Yanks return home on a six-game losing streak. But the entirety of that skid took place on the road. Two of the games were in Los Angeles against the Angels. Michael Pineda dropped the final game of that series, but he gets a second straight crack at the Halos tonight and it should go a lot better than the first go around.
This time, Pineda will face Parker Bridwell. This will be just the second career start at the big league level for Bridwell, who only managed to turn in a 4.28 ERA in five starts at Triple A. His first big league start was last month and he allowed three runs and six hits in six innings. That was against a bad Atlanta team. The Halos come into this series having just dropped three of four at home to Kansas City.
Pineda is having a strong season, especially when pitching here in the Bronx. His team start record at home is 6-1 and that's w/ a 1.96 ERA and 0.891 WHIP. Facing a lineup that has been held to three runs or fewer 38 times this season (over 50% of the time!) should be a cakewalk. I'm not sure what happened when he faced the Angels last week, but I'm willing to simply chalk it up as as "being on the road."
Arizona at Colorado
Play: Under 11
The Diamondbacks and Rockies are two of the hottest teams in baseball and with the starting pitchers tonight we will be on the UNDER here. RH Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.00 ERA) will start for the Diamondbacks and Greinke has pitched great this year. His last start at Coors Field he allowed 2 runs in 7 innings. His opponent that day was the same opponent tonight RH German Marquez (5-3, 4.19 ERA) Marquez had a great May where he was 4-1 with a 2.64 ERA. He has had a little trouble in June but in his last start he was excellent holding the Pirates to 1 run over 5 innings. This game will have a playoff type atmosphere even though it is only June as the Diamondbacks sit only one back of the Rockies for first place in the NL West. The oddsmaker has this line at 11 at the time of this writing and that is only because the game is played at the bandbox which is Coors Field. We see both pitchers doing enough to keep this game close and UNDER the total.
07:40 PM [958] Milwaukee Brewers -105 ( C Kuhl - R / Z Davies - R )
08:40 PM [962] TOTAL u11-110 (Arizona Diamondbacks vrs Rockies) (Greinke/Marquez)
07:05 PM [966] New York Yankees -1.5 -150 ( P Bridwell - R / M Pineda - R )
08:15 PM [974] TOTAL u8-105 (Boston Red Sox vrs Kansas City Royals) (Sale/Strahm)
10:05 PM [976] Oakland Athletics -113 ( F Martes - R / S Gray - R )
07:10 PM [980] Tampa Bay Rays -152 ( A Garrett - L / A Cobb - R )
10:10 PM [1978] TOTAL u5-110 (1H Detroit Tigers vrs 1H Seattle Mariners) (Zimmermann/Miranda)
1 unit bet pays 128 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
I see Sale is coming off an 8 inning, 10 SO, 1 ER gem @ PHI -- which his team lost 0-1 as a hefty -255 favorite! (reminds me of his days back in Chicago)....Royals haven't been very good at home vs lefties (maybe under here is a good bet) but current Royal batters are very familiar with Chris Sale - with 350 at bats vs Sale, 108 hits, good for a .309 batting average...Royals' starter Strahm has given up one run in his last 13 innings.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Robert Gsellman has never faced Dodgers, but he last pitched at this stadium in 2009, leading his Westchester Los Angeles HS team to a city championship. Tonight I read he will "pitch in front of his grandmother for the first time" as a pro....plus, he has a poor start to bounce back from and his opponent on the hill, Brandon McCarthy, sports a strong 3.14 ERA this season, which is no fluke as his 3.19 FIP is supported by other strong peripheral stats...I'm on the under here...
#RedSox - Dustin Pedroia, Back - is not in the starting lineup Tuesday (6/20) at Kansas City
The #Braves are getting nearly 75% of bets, but have gone from -126 to -114 since opening
Zack Greinke - the D-Backs are 7-1 over his past eight starts and 13-6 over his past 19 road assignments.
Michael Pineda - Yankees going 6-0 over his past six home starts against a team with a losing record...The Yanks are also 9-3 over his past 12 outings overall.
The southpaw Moore makes another road start, and that usually doesn't end well for he or the Giants, at least this season. The left-hander is 0-4 with a 9.24 ERA in eight road starts this season, allowing 38 earned runs with seven homers, 19 walks and a .364 opponent batting average over 37 innings...SF is is 3-11 in Moore?s starts [he's even worse vs lefties and AT hits lefties better than RH]
Pirates - The under has hit in five of their past six vs. RHP. The under has also been an impressive 9-1-1 over the past 11 meetings at Miller Park, and 15-5-2 in the past 22 meetings overall.
I know this is going to be weird, but I want to talk about Jordan Zimmermann today, who went a startling 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. Well this is getting interesting as he?s holding a 2.25 ERA over JZ?s last three starts, including the Red Sox and ChiSox. I joke around about how bad Zimmermann is often, but there may actually be something to this. Right before those three outings, Zimmermann said that he?s tweaked his slider grip, which of course made me look at its numbers in these recent starts. Get this, in his previous 10 starts, his Slider got a total of 22 whiffs, an average 2.2 per start. In these last three? 17 whiffs or 5.67 per start. Hmmmmmm. Now, he?s also used the pitch a bunch more as well ? he tossed 33 in both this start and two prior after his previous top two counts were 29 and 21. This is a lot of talk about just one pitch here and I?m not totally sold that this is the renaissance that JZ has been dying for...
Giants vs. Braves
Play:Braves -112
The San Francisco Giants are 26-46 on the season. Oh how far they've fallen as they are 20 games under .500 on the season after losing seven straight, including a 9-0 loss to the Braves yesterday. They just can't do anything right.
Julio Teheran got off to a rough start this season, but he's been much better of late, going 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 3 runs in 13 innings. Teheran is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in five career starts against the Giants.
We'll gladly fade Matt Moore, who is 0-4 with a 9.25 ERA and 2.109 WHIP in eight road starts this season, and 0-1 with an 11.08 ERA and 2.385 WHIP in his last three starts overall. And the Braves have quietly dominated left-handed starters, hitting .298 and scoring 5.3 runs per game against them this season.
The Giants are 1-8 in Moore's last nine road starts. San Francisco is 1-9 in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. NL West opponents. Atlanta is 4-0 in Teheran's last four starts.
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins +109
The Miami Marlins are playing some very good baseball of late. They are 7-4 in their last 11 games and have scored at least 5 runs in nine of those games. They come in with confidence after erasing an early 6-0 deficit to beat the Nationals 7-6 yesterday. Now red-hot starter Edinson Volquez gets the ball after going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his last three starts, which includes a no-hitter. Volquez has owned the Nationals of late, going 1-1 with a 1.44 ERA in his last four starts against them, yielding only 4 earned runs in 25 innings. The Marlins are 10-1 in their last 11 home games.
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Indians -138
The Key: It took a while for the Cleveland Indians to get over their World Series hangover, but they appear to have turned the corner. They have gone 6-0 in their last 6 games while scoring a combined 52 runs in the 6 wins. They have outscored their opponents 52-13 during this stretch. Now they should continue to rake against Chris Tillman, who is 1-5 with an 8.08 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in 8 starts this year, and 0-3 with a 12.09 ERA and 2.53 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Cleveland is 12-1 in road games after batting .315 or better over a 5 game span over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 18-8 in Tomlin's last 26 road starts. The Orioles are 0-5 in Tillman's last 5 starts. Baltimore is 0-7 in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Mariners
I?m creating a -1 line here by splitting my wager between the money line and runs line. ML is right around -145, RL is about +145.
Jordan Zimmermann has gotten it together for the Tigers. But aside from that cautionary note, there?s nothing else I can see here as a good reason not to again go against the Tigers.
Detroit is in turmoil right now, and I really can?t see how Brad Ausmus will be managing the team much longer. There is reportedly a poor clubhouse atmosphere and I don?t think that?s just idol gossip.
The walkoff win a few days ago vs. the Rays was revealing. Cabrera bombs one out to win the game, but you?d have never known it the way he rounded the bases. I also noticed what to me was a clearly irritated Cabrera in Sunday?s game. The Tiger pitcher kept throwing to first in one sequence, and Cabrera glared into the dugout at one point, and looked totally aggravated.
Seattle has lefty Ariel Miranda on the mound and there?s always a concern over his control lapses. But for whatever reason, those issues have been arising on the road and not at Safeco, where Miranda has been outstanding for the most part.
The bottom line here is that Tigers are in fade mode right now, and that?s what I?ll do again here with the play on the Mariners
Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Under 9?
wo of the weaker hitting teams in the league matched up in this one. The Phillies .395 slugging percentage on the season ranks them near the bottom of the majors and the Cardinals .416 mark also ranks them in the lower third of the majors. That said, even though the Cardinals Mike Leake and the Phillies Jeremy Hellickson have had some struggles, they are both fully capable of coming up with solid outings in this spot. Leake shutout the Phillies for 7 innings in his most recent start against them. Hellickson has held the Cardinals to 5 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts versus St Louis and both of them stayed under the total. Leake actually has pitched better on the road compared to at home this season with a 2.95 ERA and 0.96 WHIP and a 4-2 mark in his 6 starts away from home this year. The under is 4-1-1 in those 6 Leake outings. Hellickson is off of a poor start in his most recent outing but he had allowed 3 earned runs or less in 10 of his 13 prior starts! Only 3 of Hellickson's 14 starts this season have resulted in an over. The Phils ocme into this game having had just 2 overs in their last 11 games. The past 3 seasons combined the Cardinals have had 28 road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and only 11 of 28 have resulted in an over. Take advantage of the big O/U posted on this NL match-up.
Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Over 9
Recent form from these starting pitchers suggests that we?ll have a slugfest on our hands in this particular matchup. The Cards turn to Mike Leake (5-5, 2.70 ERA), who gave up six runs off nine hits while striking out just three in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. Leake?s initial season numbers (1.91 ERA, 0.93 WHIP), were obviously unsustainable and the veteran has now allowed 18 runs over his last 24.2 innings of work (posting a 6.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in that span). Jeremy Hellickson (5-5, 4.91) can empathize with his struggling counterpart after getting rocked for six runs off nine hits over five innings, striking out just one and walking three. After a great start to the 2017 campaign, Hellickson has been a disaster, gong 1-5 with a 6.89 ERA over his last nine starts (also a 23:20 K:BB in 47 innings). And note that Hellickson has been poor at home as well this season, just 2-2 with a 5.21 ERA. More questions than answers right now for each of these starters, consider the over.
St. Louis at Philadelphia
Play: St. Louis & Over
Currently ranked among the top 10 qualified starter with a negative ERA-FIP differential (4.91 ERA-5.91 FIP), Philadelphia's Jeremy Hellickson is no doubt fortunate his ERA isn't higher. Like his counterpart tonight, Mike Leake, Hellickson pitched out of his mind the first part of the season (5 starts, 1.80 ERA) but has come crashing down with a near 7.00 ERA over his last nine starts. During that span of 47 innings, the veteran righty has a 23-20 K-to-BB ratio while allowing 13 home runs. He's currently as bad a starter as there is in the National League. Speaking of regression, after posting a sub-2.00 ERA through his first nine starts, Leake has seen his ERA rise well over a run thanks to a 6.20 ERA (24.2 IP, 17 ERs). His overall performance this season, however, is far more "real" than that of Hellickson. Leake currently owns career bests in both groundball rate (54.9%) and swinging strike rate (8.2%). Not to mention that stretch of regression came against four of the NL's better offenses (Cubs, Reds, Dodgers, Brewers). Here he faces a big step down in class with the Phillies near the bottom of MLB in most offensive categories. A lot of the value with both St. Louis (-140 to -160) and total (9 to 9.5) was taken out early but those remain the preferred ways to play this contest.
Houston vs. Oakland
Play: Oakland +110
Edges - A?s: Gray 4-1 career home team starts in this series, including 3-0 the last three; and 4-1 with 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP home team starts as opposed to 0-4 with 5.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP away team starts this season? Astros: Martes off 1st MLB career win in last start? With the host 8-1 in Gray?s starts this season, we recommend a 1* play in Oakland.
Giants vs. Braves
Play:Braves -102
he San Francisco Giants travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves on Tuesday night. San Francisco is 26-46 SU overall this year while Atlanta comes in with a 32-37 SU overall record on the season. Matt Moore is 2-7 with a 6.00 ERA overall this year, 0-4 with a 9.25 ERA on the road this season and 0-1 with an 11.08 ERA his last 3 starts. San Francisco is scoring only 3.7 runs per game overall this year, 3.9 runs per game against right handed starters, 3.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 3.7 runs per game on grass and 3.7 runs per game at night this season. San Francisco is allowing 5.9 runs per game on the road this year and 8 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Atlanta is scoring 7.3 runs per game their past 7 games overall where they have a team batting average of .314. San Francisco is 12-28 on the road this year. San Francisco is 16-31 this year against right handed starters. San Francisco is 6-15 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 17-9 this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Pirates +103
The Pittsburgh Pirates won the series opener 8-1 on Monday, and I think they'll come out strong here in the second game of the set as well.
Chad Kuhl (1-6, 5.61 ERA) takes the ball for the Pirates. The right-hander has had a tough year, and Pittsburgh has lost each of his last four starts. Kuhl himself has pitched pretty well lately though, allowing only six runs on 11 hits in a total of 15 innings through his last three starts combined.
Kuhl is 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA in three career starts against the Brewers who turn to Zach Davies (7-3, 4.91 ERA) who unlike Kuhl has pitched pretty poorly but been bailed out by the Brewers bats.
Davies has conceded a total of eight runs (nine earned) on 13 hits with a pair of homers in 10 innings through his last two starts combined. Davies is 1-2 with a bloated 9.56 ERA in four career starts against Pittsburgh.
Milwaukee is 38-34 on the season, but just 19-21 home at Miller Park. Let's go with the Pirates as Tuesday's free pick.
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -110
Pittsburgh won Monday's matchup, but the Pirates still are 23-63 their last 86 games at Milwaukee. Pittsburgh has lost Chad Kuhl's last six road starts and 10 of his last 13 overall. Kuhl is 1-6 with a 7.38 ERA in night games this season and he has a 5.61 ERA overall. The right-hander has not won a decision since April 8 against Atlanta and hasn't made it past five innings since April 18. Milwaukee has won nine of Zach Davies' last 11 starts and four of his last five home starts. Davies faced the Pirates once this year and allowed two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings. Pittsburgh is 13-20 on the road and 10-20 its last 30 games against NL Central teams. First-place Milwaukee has won five of its last seven games.
Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -135
Just another typical run scoring performance by the red hot Brewers. As Milwaukee recently ripped the St. Louis lineup by swinging hot bats - and taking advantage of well timed plays when they needed it. Brewers really aren't great - but they are playing some decent ball and truthfully, Pittsburgh is just that bad. Kuhl struggles with putting the ball in any of the corners vs decent batters, let alone hot ones. Pittsburgh has had problems with their pitching staff on the whole - and Kuhl isn't going to help that problem here. Pittsburgh should have been good enough with the few good bats they do have - but over the past couple of weeks we see it isn't. Milwaukee wins this one on Tuesday night.
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -143
The Rays lost to the Reds yesterday but Cincinnati had lost 9 straight games prior to that rare road win. On the season the Reds are still just 11-21 in road games. Cincinnati will have Amir Garrett toeing the rubber at Tropicana Field this evening and the southpaw is winless with an 11.17 ERA in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by Tampa Bay's Alex Cobb and the Rays right-hander has a solid 3.27 ERA in his home starts this season. Before the loss yesterday, Tampa had won 5 of their last 6 home games. Also, TB is 8-5 (+3.7 net units) in games where the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs. We look for the Rays to bounce back and quickly send the Reds back to their losing ways. Cobb is the better pitcher and we've got a huge home field edge too considering how badly Cincinnati has played on the road this season. Lastly, the Reds have lost 5 straight Garrett starts and 7 of his last 9. We're happy to lay a very fair price here considering the above factors favoring a home rout in this one.
Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
The set-up: The Indians surged into first place in the AL Central with a four-game sweep of the Twins in Minnesota, where they outscored them 28-8. The Indians then opened a four-game road series at Baltimore last night with a 12-0 pasting of the Orioles. Cleveland has now ripped off six consecutive victories while scoring a total of 52 runs (8.67 per), to move a season-high six games over .500 at 37-31. The Orioles were coming off wins Saturday and Sunday (had nine HRs!) but their pitching staff was ravaged for double-digit runs for the fifth time in 10 games. Baltimore also set an AL record by allowing at least five runs in 16 consecutive games (Orioles are 5-11 in that span). Baltimore was once 22-10 (in games played through May 9) but is now 34-35, having lost 25 of its last 37 games.
The pitching matchup: Two struggling starters take the mound Tuesday night, Josh Tomlin (4-8 & 5.83 ERA) for Cleveland and Chris Tillman (1-5 & 8.07 ERA) for Baltimore. Tomlin was victorious last time out versus the Los Angeles Dodgers but he was hardly impressive in allowing four runs on seven hits over five innings. The Indians are 5-8 in Tomlin's starts this season (he's failed to complete three innings three different times) and on the season, opponents are batting .314 against him. Tomlin is 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA in his career vs. Orioles. Tillman takes the mound mired in a five-start losing streak. He was roughed up for five runs and a season-high 11 hits over 5 1/3 innings at the White Sox last time, which came on the heels of him allowing nine runs in just 1 1/3 innings against the Yankees in his previous outing. Tillman is 5-2 with a 4.17 ERA in eight career starts against the Indians (Baltimore is 5-3).
The pick: Can the Orioles really be this bad? No faith in either of tonight's starters but I'm going to give the home team a shot in this one.
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Over 11
The weather conditions in Baltimore have favored hitters during the Orioles recent home stand. They lost 12-0 to the Indians last night, and each of their last four games has seen at least 12 runs scored. Two struggling pitchers take the mound at Camden Yards tonight, and another slugfest seems likely.
Josh Tomlin will toe the slab for the Tribe, and he hasn't been missing many bats this year. Tomlin (4-8, 5.83 ERA) allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings in a 12-5 home win over the Dodgers his last time out. He hasn't fooled the Orioles, who are hitting a combined .359 over a total of 63 at bats against him in past meetings.
The Orioles hand the ball to Chris Tillman, who has surrendered at least five runs in four straight starts. Tillman (1-5, 8.07 ERA) was torched for five runs on 11 hits over 5 1/3 innings in a loss at Chicago his last time out. He actually has great career numbers versus the Indians, but the veteran seems out of sorts this season.
The Orioles have gone over in seven straight home games, and 13 of their last 16 versus a right-handed starter.
Washington @ Miami
Pick: Miami +110
The Washington Nationals let a 6-0 lead slip away last night, and were walked off by the red-hot Miami Marlins 8-7. The Marlins may be six games under .500, but they have played like a contender over their last 21 games where they are 14-7. Four of their seven losses have come by a single run, and two others by just two runs, so they have been in all but one game right down to the final frame. They have been averaging six runs a game and allowing fewer than four, and on average have won by 2+ runs per contest over their last 21. Better than that, they are 10-1 at home over the stretch with the only blemish to Arizona and Zack Grienke by a one-run margin. The Nationals have been leaking oil at just 5-8 over their last 13.
Astros at Athletics
Pick: Under
Houston has a great pitching staff and heads to Oakland, a huge park, great for hitters. Houston is 9-3-3 under the total on the road. Oakland is one of the worst offensive team in baseball, #23 in runs, #26 in on-base percentage. At least they have their ace going in Sonny Gray, 2-0 at home with a 3.30 ERA. And the Under is 4-1 in Gray's last 5 home starts vs. the Astros.
CLEVELAND -1? +116 over Baltimore
The second-place Indians went into Minnesota this past weekend for a three-day, four-game series at Target Field and swept the Twins out of first place, thoroughly thrashing Minnesota by a 28-8 aggregate score. In less than 48 hours the Twins went from surprising division leaders to looking like merely something that the defending American League champions had to step over on their inevitable climb back to the playoffs. The Indians then went into Baltimore last night and whacked the Orioles 12-0.
Where it all stands now is that the Indians are seeing beach balls at the plate while the Orioles are seeing BB gun pellets. Furthermore, the Orioles are coming to the park with the mindset that they have to score 10 runs or more to win because their pitching staff couldn?t get Bob Barker out right now. Long innings turn into long days. Long days in this summer heat take a bigger toll when a team is losing so frequently. What we have here is two teams with dramatic differences in mindset and it?s not in the Orioles favor. We can?t even imagine what is going through each individual?s mind on the Orioles, knowing they have to endure another start by Chris Tillman.
Shoulder issues plagued Chris Tillman down the stretch in 2016 and they resurfaced this spring, forcing Tillman to miss all of April. The results have been disastrous (8.07 ERA, 2.10 WHIP) through his first eight starts and there is not a single hint that things are going to get better. Never a control artist, Tillman hasn't been able to hit water from the boat in 2017. His awful first-pitch strike rate and Ball% say that he's deserved the 19 walks he?s issued in 36 frames. In a year when most velocities are up?thanks to different measurement technology?Tillman's has sunk. His meager 7% swing and miss rate says the soft-tossing is here to stay. Sure, he's been hit with some bad luck, but Tillman?s 6.97 xERA and his other skills confirm things have gone off the rails. This type of skills collapse typically reeks of a hidden injury, and given Tillman's April shoulder issues, it's likely that something still isn't right with his arm. With a drop in velocity and his inability to throw strikes or miss bats, Tillman is about to face the hottest hitting team in the majors. We know exactly what to do.
N.Y. Mets +167 over LOS ANGELES
Cody Bellinger is the talk of MLB right now with his record breaking 21st jack last night in his first 51 games. The previous record was 20 HR?s in 51 games but the point is with all that hype surrounding a player and team, one will pay a hefty and inflated price to back the Dodgers here with Brandon McCarthy taking the mound. McCarthy is a very decent pitcher but he?s not worthy of a price like this against a healthy and dangerous Mets? lineup that scored six runs against Clayton Kershaw last night.
McCarthy has walked just 17 batters in 63 innings while striking out 51. That?s good, not great. His 3.14 ERA after 11 starts has also influenced this price but his xERA of 3.90 reveals the risk. In fact, McCarthy?s xERA over his past two starts was 6.35. McCarthy is 11 starts into the year after throwing just 26 innings all of last year, 14 months after TJS. A calf injury slowed him down last year, hip woes DLed him and he logged 14 innings (15 runs) afterward. Plenty of recent skills but we?ve seen him fall off a cliff too many times in the past to trust him as this big a favorite in this spot. Yeah, he could pitch well but he could also get blown up, as his 10% swing and miss rate, recent xERA?s and past history suggests.
Last year was a strong debut for a groundball-inducing rookie in a playoff chase. Robert Gsellman?s strikeout rate was higher in the majors than the 6.0 K?s/9 he posted in his 207 IP in the upper minors. On paper, Robert Gsellman has not pitched well in 2017 (5.50 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) but his skills haven't been as bad as his stats might indicate and they've actually been really good over his last five starts with 8.2 K?s/9, 1.8 BB?s/9, 49% grounders and a 3.90 xERA. That xERA is the exact same as McCarthy?s but one of these guys is almost a 2-1 favorite. As value bettors, that makes our choice for this game an easy one.
Pittsburgh +106 over MILWAUKEE
When Zach Davies is favored, he?s instant fade material because he?s always at the mercy of batted balls in play (BABIP). In 73 frames, Davies has a weak BB/K split of 26/51. Our threshold for WHIP is 1.30. Anything above that puts a pitcher at the mercy of his strand rate. Davies WHIP is 1.54 so not only is he at the mercy of BABIP, he?s also at the mercy of his strand rate. Throwing 89 MPH with a pedestrian 8% swing and miss rate, Davies has more value to the Brewers than he has to you. His ERA/xERA split 4.91/4.83 tells us he?s going to allow five runs a game more times than not and that?s always worth fading.
Chad Kuhl is so close to being wickedly good but his surface stats say otherwise.(5.61 ERA, 1.53 WHIP). However, look under the hood and it?s an entirely different story. Kuhl?s skills with the bases empty are outstanding (2.71 xERA) but with runners on they?re not so good (5.22 xERA). With runners on, Kuhl throws more balls and strikes out less batters. That?s not unusual for young starters but with a minor tweak or two, it?s a correctable trait. What sticks out to us is Kuhl?s 14% swing and miss rate and his 51%/17%/32% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his last six starts. Hisa groundball rate in his last start was 67%. Kuhl?s xERA over his last five starts is 3.27. He?s working with the best pitching coach in the league and while his improvements are steadily gradual, they have gone mostly unnoticed. Chad Kuhl can pitch and he?ll now face a Brewers? team that has never seen a pitch they didn?t like. Kuhl is quickly going to turn his skills in an attractive target and we?ll put that to the test here.
COLORADO -1? +171 over Arizona
We?re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado?s home games this season and we?ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it?s the Rocks or the opposition and we?ll be playing it regardless of who?s pitching. We?re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12? range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We?ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
13-16 + 23.40 units
Angels vs. Yankees
Pick: Yankees
Admittedly, this line is getting bet up significantly, so potentially you may want to look at the run line (-1.5). Regardless, I envision an easy win for the team in pinstripes here. Now, it must be pointed out that the Yanks return home on a six-game losing streak. But the entirety of that skid took place on the road. Two of the games were in Los Angeles against the Angels. Michael Pineda dropped the final game of that series, but he gets a second straight crack at the Halos tonight and it should go a lot better than the first go around.
This time, Pineda will face Parker Bridwell. This will be just the second career start at the big league level for Bridwell, who only managed to turn in a 4.28 ERA in five starts at Triple A. His first big league start was last month and he allowed three runs and six hits in six innings. That was against a bad Atlanta team. The Halos come into this series having just dropped three of four at home to Kansas City.
Pineda is having a strong season, especially when pitching here in the Bronx. His team start record at home is 6-1 and that's w/ a 1.96 ERA and 0.891 WHIP. Facing a lineup that has been held to three runs or fewer 38 times this season (over 50% of the time!) should be a cakewalk. I'm not sure what happened when he faced the Angels last week, but I'm willing to simply chalk it up as as "being on the road."
Arizona at Colorado
Play: Under 11
The Diamondbacks and Rockies are two of the hottest teams in baseball and with the starting pitchers tonight we will be on the UNDER here. RH Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.00 ERA) will start for the Diamondbacks and Greinke has pitched great this year. His last start at Coors Field he allowed 2 runs in 7 innings. His opponent that day was the same opponent tonight RH German Marquez (5-3, 4.19 ERA) Marquez had a great May where he was 4-1 with a 2.64 ERA. He has had a little trouble in June but in his last start he was excellent holding the Pirates to 1 run over 5 innings. This game will have a playoff type atmosphere even though it is only June as the Diamondbacks sit only one back of the Rockies for first place in the NL West. The oddsmaker has this line at 11 at the time of this writing and that is only because the game is played at the bandbox which is Coors Field. We see both pitchers doing enough to keep this game close and UNDER the total.
