Tuesday picks

katts

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I have many picks tonight and decided to post them here. A few comments attached with every pick as I don't see the point of posting selections without a minimum of explanations, unless you're a known face in the world of sports gambling or at least you let the public know your record. No offense to anybody in particular but this is just the way I see it. As far as I'm concerned, this place is not a contest forum but a place to share our insights, stats and knowledge.

Another thing before the picks, I do not suggest to play so many games in one single night. Better focus your bankroll and energy on a couple of strong plays, and it's obvious that if you bet on everything you'll end up as a loser long term speaking. Tonight, I have a total of 8 selections so I'm going against my own words. But I just see many opportunities tonight and the bankroll is in a good shape, so I'm ready to face the worst. Another good approach when you want to play many games in one night is to reduce the amount per play. That's what I'll do as I only have 1 "2 units" play and a couple of "0.5 unit".

Finally, I allready said it but I'll say it again since it's been a long time now, when you have many plays in one given night, if you really can't stand the idea of losing the whole thing, a good idea is to put a very small amount on a parlay in which you play exactly the opposite of your selections. But don't get me wrong here, this has nothing to do with money management. It's just about what I call "emotion management". Those "safety parlays" helped me to get good nights of sleep a couple of times despite horrible results. Tonight I have 0.1 unit on a "safety" 6-t parlay.


Now the picks:


2* Nashville / Buffalo UNDER 5.0 -120
Total should be 4.5. One of the most defensive matchup so far this season.

1* Ottawa / Pittsburgh OVER 5.5 -120
Mario supposed to play. Coaching change should wake up Pittsburgh's offense. Offense not a problem for Ottawa. Hedberg "the moose" quite disappointing so far.

1* San Jose / Minnesota UNDER 5.0 -130
Last game between the 2 was a scoreless tie. Since last year, 21 SJ's road games went UNDER 5 against only 12 OVER 5. No need to comment about Wild's playing style.

1* Washington / Los Angeles UNDER 5.5 -115
PP is in trouble for the Caps with Jagr and Gonchar not in good shapes. LA seems to continue playing D-hockey.

0.7* Florida PK +180
Don't have anything so nice to say about the Panthers, but Vancouver doesn't deserve to be -210 favorites yet, no matter where and against who they're playing. Bure brothers may want to teach a trick or 2 to the Sedin twins. Parlaying Florida (ML only) w/ the OVER sounds interesting here, but I'll just play them straight.

0.5* Phoenix PK +105
Only half a unit on this one as I might be completely out of track. Phoenix doesn't have the team to win many games this year, but still they always seem to play good hockey in their own arena at the beginning of the season. I don't think that Boston should be the favorite team here.

0.5* Tampa Bay PK +350
This is a lock folks. Bet your everything on it... On a more serious note, +350 seems a bit high for a team that just won 2 consecutive road games... soemthing they're not used to do. How about a 3rd one against the SC champions before coming back home?

0.5* S/T Parlay Columbus +1.5 +110 / UNDER 5.5 -115 (+293)
The good old STP involving the +1.5 puck and the UNDER (@5.5). Here I kinda like Columbus +1.5 +110, but not enough to bet straight on it. But if they cover, then the UNDER is a gift at -115. When you really like both the DOG and the UNDER of a specific game, a good way to manage your money is to use a 2:2:1 betting format - thanks to Nick Douglas for this one. When you like the total ONLY when the side hit (or vice versa), then better just parlay for a smaller amount.


Good luck tonight
 

Mr Mo

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That florida PK+180,looks Yummy
smile.gif
 

TexasBC6

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Katts - thanks for sharing your thoughts on these games.

I want to make sure you know that Val Bure is listed as questionable for tonight. I'm sure you probably do, but just in case.
 

Sports Junkie

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I also like to give a blurb of reasoning with my plays. You and I seem to be the minority though. Not that it is bad to just post your picks, bets and record, but doing so does not do anything to facilitate discussion or help the forum win as a collective group. Off my soapbox now. Anyway, I am going to add my plays to your thread if you don't mind. Don't know why I do this. I guess superstition more than anything. Probably makes Tiger's work harder though. Tonight I am taking:

PIT/OTT Ov 5.5 (-120) 1.2 to win 1 Unit. Agree completely with your reasoning. Lalime has been struggling in goal and Hedberg is not the answer in PIT.

SJ ML (-140) 1.4 to win 1 Unit.
Just like Sunday, this is more a play against MIN staying unbeaten tonight. Also like the fact that SJ outshot MIN 36-19 in the tie out in SJ.

TOR ML (+110) 1 to win 1.10 Unit.
TOR has won 7 of the last 8 in this matchup, and after being pummeled by STL last time out I think Cujo has a strong game. I like the addition of Mogilny to TOR, but they are lacking on D.

COL -1.5 (-110) 1.1 to win 1 Unit.
COL coming off 2 loses and vs an inferior opponent in your home building. I don't see how TB keeps it going or close on the road tonight. Looks like a solid play, but so did NJ the other night.

I also parlayed these 4 together for a half unit that returns just under 5 units.

Good luck to everyone tonight.
 

katts

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Tex - Well no.. believe it or not, I didn't know. I usually make most of my bets early in the morning so I'm not always awared of the latest news. So thanks.

You're right - I see that he's questionnable because of a knee injury. That would change the odds a bit, especailly when you consider the fact that the younger brother has done pretty well in the past against Vancouver. But anyways.. even if he's out I still like the payoff (+180).

One thing we should all do here is to ALWAYS presume that not everybody knows the latest news. It's not how fast it gets here (allthough the faster the better), it's if it gets here or not ("here" being this forum of course).

SJ- don't be ashamed of the "superstition" thing with me. I'm one of the most superstitious guy around
wink.gif


Thanks for your insights and good luck tonight.
 

a-line

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You really speak words of truth..
i never put any money in any play,if i dont
have any facts..so thanks to you..keep on winning...

------------------
may the force be with us
 

Sports Junkie

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Kind of a strange night. Thankfully, those Sharks are a resilient bunch. Twice in a row they have fought back from 2 down in the 3rd, and another push for me going against the Wild. Whew! Might have to go against them in the next one too.

Finished 2-1-1 +.5 Units on the night, and now 15-9-2 on the year for +.71 Units. A smaller profit than it could be since I started with 1/2 unit plays in week one, but it is a marathon not a sprint so I'll take the profit no matter how small. Let's get 'em tonight.
 
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