TUESDAY TACO MLB PICKS...

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

mmmmmmmmmmmm...tacos....
welp, as i sit here sick at home, i think it's time to post some picks and see if I should remain baseball capper or not.

worse comes to worse, i just will play the opposite of what I usually do because i've been stinkin up the joint (no, it's not the familiar smell of the CLEVELAND/PITTSBURGH interleague series..which contributed to 1/3 of my losing bankroll)

1) TB/BOSTON : well, what do you know, it's a rematch of last week's tussle. TB played boston close in that game until the TB bullpen blew it in the later innings (i'm sure Extrapolator is getting really sick about those later inning defeats by the bullpens..)
STURTZE has been pitching well late on the road his road ERA at 2.97, but has a healthy, but brutal night ERA of around 6.50.
Pedro , his 2nd start off the DL held TB to 1 run in 5 innings of work. I don't think BOSTON can afford to lose this game with NY beginning to fire on all cylinders.

Since the green is too high for me(-360)???, i'll take BOSTON and the -1.5 runline @-180 (WSEX)

more to come latr.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

2) ATLANTA/PHILLY If it's one thing that makes me nervous is high lines for road favs.I dunno... ATLANTA throws BURKETT out there with a healthy road ERA of 2.40 and a nite ERA of 1.96. WOW. Looking at N.Figueroa that's going for the Philly's, it's like throwing up the white flag, putting a reliever in a tight series like this one where ATLANTA just keeps on blazing down PHILLY's legs for first.
Since the line is so high, and I have no idea how Figueroa pitches , i think i can safely assume that after the lambasting Atlanta gave philly, this one might be a closer game, better pitched game.
taking the UNDER 8.5 (-120)

more to come.


[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 06-26-2001).]

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

3) LA VS SF : MY FAV K.J IS BACK!!! versus Meester ESTES. Since i have so much faith in Brown's pitching abilities (been following him for about 6 years now...) and seeing as how ESTES' is 6-0 at home with a 1.29 ERA and a 2.44 nite ERA AND 12 of his last 13 starts, he has only given up 18 runs in about 85 innings, he's looking very consistent.
BROWN's stats: road ERA 3.26
I like the UNDER in this one as i hope the hitters will have a tough time getting some runs off these guys, even if this is Brown's first start since the DL (yes, i know he relieved a game a few days ago...and he still looked good.) Throw in again that this is an inter-division battle and I think we have the makings of an under here.

taking the UNDER 7.5 (-125)

here's another stat to note : LA is 2-5 vs lefties on the road...

so...let's go for SF (-110) and i like the price, won't hit me too hard if we lose it.



[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 06-26-2001).]

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

4) HOUSTON/ARIZONA
This is Mlicki's first start for Houston and may need some time to adjust to the batting lineup that Arizona will throw at him.
N.Bierbrodt's stats show that all three games he has pitched have been OVER :
14-5(WIN), 13-3(WIN),13-9 (ND,but arizona won the game).
I think this'll be payback time for the D-BACKS after getting embarrassed and blanked last nite 6-0.

I like ARIZONA (-140) and the
OVER 10.5 (-120)

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

and now for the 'dogs picks...

5) CINCI (+130) and the OVER 9.5 (-105)

all stats point to REITSMA losing this game, as he has not had very good experience in ST.LOO. But seeing as how Cinci is a good road team, and both teams have had one day's rest. and both teams bullpens have been horrible of late :
st.loo last three bullpen app: 4.46 ERA
CINCI "" : 5.23
this gives good evidence for an over play.
Other interesting stats :
1) STL has won the last five times Benes played CIN.
2) STL is 5-2 in the seven meetings this year.
3) The over is 8-1 in the Reds last nine overall.
But here's what i like:
4) CIN is 5-2 when Reitsma starts on the road.
PROPS TO covers.com for their stats.

 

[snoozing]

We have too many sick people around here. Get better soon. Hate to see us playing against each other tonight but gotta take Cards

TB at +340 is too much to pass up

Do not think Philly pitching can keep game under but going with the braves straight and RL

If I were going to play the LA total I would take the over because I never play under 8.

BUT WE AGREE ON SF

 

[Subagoto]

TV, to add a bit to your ATL/PHI hunch...
I have been following the Braves for years since growing up in Richmond and going to Triple A games all the time. One thing I have noticed over the past couple of years in particular is the Braves seem to struggle against rookie pitchers they have never seen before or guys that are just getting thrown into the rotation. They ALWAYS seem to make these type of guys look like Cy Young.
That being said, I honestly don't know how Burkett has such a good ERA. This is a guy with a career +4.00 ERA. Also keep in mind that these 2 teams have only 3 unders in their last 20 combined games, all of those 3 were ATL games. PHI has gone over 8.5 10 of the last 10 and ATL has been tearing the cover off the ball, not to mention a well used Philly pen minus the guy who is starting. Lots of unders in their April series', but this is a different Phillies team, both at the plate and on the mound.

Tough call. Too tough for me to go either way on it, just trying to give some info. Good luck.


[This message has been edited by Subagoto (edited 06-26-2001).]

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

and now my "REVENGE OF THE DAY" pick or otherwise known as the "team that should have won yesterday will get their revenge tonite pick." This pick (if wrong) usually turns into the "kick me in the nutz pick" for game three.

6) taking FLORIDA (-180)
I have NO idea how florida lost last nite.
we'll leave it at that. I mean, the stats looked like Vasquez was gonna get shelled.
And besides, it's usually AT HOME that the expos do well in the first game of a series...not on the road!!!???

J.C Penny is pitching tonite, and has a stellar 3-1 ERA 1.62 home record (so far so good). Nite record is 4-1 with a healthy 3.71 ERA, no bad. M.Thurman see,s to be a Jeckle and mr.Hyde of sorts as he is 1-3 on the road with a 8.17 ERA as compared to a home ERA of 3.10 (go figure).

we'll take the FLORIDA MARLINS and the revenge factor, the better home pitcher in PENNY and we'll cross our fingers as we try to make our way back to handicapping respectablilty.

GLTA tonite.

TORONTO-VIGILANTE.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

thanks for the info Subagoto.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Snoozing, thnx for the thoughts...
like i've said in the past, i gotta try something different because of how I have been getting beaten lately.

we'll see tonite though.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Snoozing, i agree with your tip that TB at such a great price is too tempting not to lay off. If I was putting money down, i would put a little on TB...I mean why not?? Stranger things have happened over the last month or so.

 

[Subagoto]

Oh, and if you are taking it at -120 you are getting the dickie! all of mine have it ranging from +105 to +115

 

[Subagoto]

FLA -1.5 at +110 might be nice.

 

[Happy'Capper]

I as well like the Under 8 1/2 play especially at +105, I am just waiting to play it to see if the line can get even higher.
Burkett's four of his last five starts have gone under the total.
Figueroa at AAA this year has some decent stats: 87.1 IP 74 Hits 18 BB 74 K 2.47 ERA
Atlanta's only lefty in the bullpen Remlinger is ready to go if needed.
The only Philly reliever who won't go tonight is Vincent Padilla.

Good luck,
HC

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

someone told me to take TB @+1.5
oh well, live and learn

teddy KGB jinxed all of us, thus the narrow BOSTON victory.

GAME 1: BOSTON (-1.5) LOST -180
GAME 2: FLORIDA (my revenge of the day pick)
WINS (+100)
GAME 3: ATLANTA/PHILLY UNDER WON (+100)
GAME 4: DOG OF THE DAY. CINCI WON (+100)
got the OVER 9.5 AS WELL WON (+100)

[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 06-26-2001).]

[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 06-27-2001).]

 

[snoozing]

Should have known that a 5-1 lead for TB would not hold up. I had already put +340 on my side of the ledger. Why could'nt this game just be 6 innings?

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

we can thank TB for teasing us, and then kicking us in the nutz.

raise your hands if that's happened to you on more than one occasion this season...???

hahahahahhah

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

continue recap:

GAME 1: BOSTON (-1.5) LOST -180
GAME 2: FLORIDA (my revenge of the day pick)
WINS (+100)
GAME 3: ATLANTA/PHILLY UNDER WON (+100)
GAME 4: DOG OF THE DAY. CINCI WON (+100)
got the OVER 9.5 AS WELL WON (+100)
GAME 5: LA/SF UNDER 7.5 LOST (-125)
SF LOST (-110)
GAME 6: 'ZONA/HOUSTON OVER 10.5 WON (+100)
'ZONA LOST
(-140)


final: 5-4 -.55 unitz... oh well...


[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 06-27-2001).]