Tuesday Tries - stats & plays

[Randercity]

Phil at ATLANTA

PHILLIES are a dog system play and hit the board as a $$ breakdown play as ATL is -2815 at home vs RH starters. PERSON has been tough for PHIL and although GLAVINE is a money pitcher, I like the Phillies again tonite as ATL is struggling to score. M. Foster is behind the plate which is an edge to ATL and OVER, but I'm passing on the total as Glavine has gone 8-1-1 UNDER in his last ten. M.FOSTER is 21-11 HT and 19-13 O/U with his games averaging just over 10 runs per.

PHILA +125

FLORIDA -130

Another money breakdown play as FLOR is in their best spot, at home vs RH starter. They are +1630 on the year, and the pitching matchup favors FLA with OLSEN vs OHKA. Look for another low scoring FLA win here.

Pitt at METS - PASS

Chicago at NEW YORK - PASS

Minn at DET

DET is a DOG system play, and they are solid at home vs LH starters. However, MILTON is on fire and hard to go against. Add in the HP UMP EMMEL who strongly favors the ROAD TEAM (20-11)and UNDER slightly, and I have to pass the side and just take the UNDER. MINN is resting DOUG M. tonite, so don't look for a lot of scoring.

DET under 9.5 -120

Toronto at BALT

BIG TIME home and UNDER UMP J. Hirshbeck behind the plate tonite, HT 23-9 and 9-20 O/U, and more importantly, HOME FAVS of -160 or less are 12-2, and games lined at 9.5 are 1-6 O/U. MONEY breakdown shows TOR as a play, but as mentioned yesterday, that figure is misleading as TOR built most of that early in the year, and has since been about .500 on the road vs RH. I'll bite! Taking BALT and UNDER and going with the UMP!

BALT -120 & Under 9.5 -120

 

[Randercity]

Bost at TBAY

IASSOGNA is behind the plate!

BIG TIME UNDER UMP... pitching matchup is ok, but this guy keeps games low, except in COORS, and who CAN keep it low there. 11-24 O/U record and his games average around 8.5 per.
I've been on his games under for about 12 straight now... no reason to stop tonite.

UNDER 9 -125

 

[Randercity]

Clev at KC - PASS

KC is a DOG play, but I can't go against SABATHIA and his 11-2 road record. Also KC struggles to hit lefties so this game is a pass for me... I WILL NOT go against the dog system, my short hairs are still singed from doing it too many times the past few weeks.

San Fran at HOUSTON

Schmidt has been stellar for SF and I think he comes up big tonite. I think HOU is MORE distracted by the BONDS circus than SF. I think SF gets another win here at HOUSTON behind the great pitching of JASON SCHMIDT. Also, SF just missed being a MONEY breakdown play at 985.

SF -105

 

[Randercity]

Stl at MILW - PASS

Passing on this one... although STL is probably the right side. They NEED the game, MILW playing out the string... but I'm gonna pass. Better pickings out there I feel...

 

[Randercity]

Colorado at ARIZONA

Can't go against the DOG system here and the hot pitching of CHACON. Schilling is definitely hittable, and is prone to the long ball so look for HELTON/WALKER to take him deep. ARIZ bats have come alive again so I'm gonna take the OVER in this game also, so two plays on this game, figuring a split at worst.

COLO +210 & OVER 8

L.A. at SAN DIEGO

Road team has won the LAST 12 in this series!

With JONES terrible home record and that streak, gonna ride the DODGERS again tonite.

LA -105

Seattle at ANAHEIM

DOG system has the HALOS and I don't give them a chance here. They have never been able to hit GARCIA, I think getting 1 run total in like 5 or 6 games. Add to that the high fastball throwing WISE going for ANA, and it looks like SEA -1.5 may be the way to go. I won't buck the DOG SYSTEM though, and the total at 8.5 is scary because SEA may bomb this guy, or ANA may finally figure out GARCIA, although I doubt it. With EDGAR sitting out, it may be wise to see who else sits for SEA, and look at UNDER. Me, I'm gonna pass on this one and watch the DODGERS instead.

 

[gsp]

Rander, LA and Ari both are passes for me. In both cases they look like winners but have a lot going against behind the plate.