BEGINNING THURSDAY AUGUST 5
Seattle at Tampa Bay (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
Last year, the Devil Rays won four series, lost nine and tied one. One of the teams they beat was Seattle (5-4, +$535). With Seattle playing so poorly on the road vs. righties (8-28, -$2110) it stands to reason that the improved D?Rays are likely to do at least as well, if not better, this year. We?ll take the home team in all those aforementioned situations. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Mariners.
BEGINNING FRIDAY AUGUST 6
Milwaukee at Florida (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Marlins are meeting the Brewers for the first time in 2004 and will see quite a different edition than the one they were 7-2 ($430) against in 2003. The problem for Milwaukee is that it will be running into a good pitching staff with an offense that averages just 3.9 RPG on the road. But, with Brad Penny now a Dodger and Josh Beckett still struggling, the Marlins? starting staff suddenly looks average. PREFERRED: Brewers off a Florida victory.
Montreal at Houston (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
It?s so easy to make a case to play against the bottom feeding Expos (41-63, -$1185), but are you prepared to lay huge odds on a team that qualifies as the biggest disappointment in the NL. Houston has all but dropped out of sight in both the NL Central and wildcard races (-$2455 overall) leaving it with little incentive left for the remainder of the season. The Expos are playing their best baseball of the season (8-2, +$865 last 10 days) mainly because they?ve finally started to hit (6.4 RPG last 10). We?ll take this attractive dog throughout the series. PREFERRED: Expos in all games.
N.Y. Mets at St. Louis (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Cardinals took two of three in New York in mid-May and with the Mets falling well behind the leaders in the NL East, this looks like a one-sided series. Matt Morris has always had success vs. NY (4-2 lifetime with a 2.88 ERA) and it?s interesting to note that he followed what was then his worst performance of the year (1.2 innings, seven runs) on July 20 with a shutout five days later. He was even worse last Saturday night at Pac Bell. BEST BET: Morris.
Cincinnati at Colorado (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
We?re looking for run production resembling a typical Sunday afternoon in a slo-pitch softball league throughout the series. The Reds starters? ERA is 5.91 and the relievers? is 5.58 on the road and the Rockies are hitting .307 at home. Meanwhile, Colorado?s starters have a 6.87 ERA and the relievers? ERA is 6.11 at home (both are MLB highs by far). PREFERRED: OVER in all games.
Atlanta at Arizona (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
While the Braves were napping in May, the Diamondbacks took two of three (+$100), one of them a 2-0 whitewashing by the Big Unit. But, no one is hotter than Atlanta (won 13 of 17 since the All-Star break) and, except for Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb, no Arizona starter has an ERA at home under four runs per game. You might want to key in on Russ Ortiz who is 6-1 on the road with a 3.42 ERA. BEST BET: Ortiz.
Pittsburgh at San Diego (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Padres continue to hold on to second place in the NL West (58-47, +$410) while the Pirates try to hold on to their best players (Kris Benson is already gone) until management starts its annual fire sale. San Diego has finally started to play like the contenders many felt they were in March and are getting tremendous pitching at home (starters? ERA is 3.91, relievers? ERA is 3.15). But, don?t take those stats too seriously: The Padres are averaging just 3.6 RPG in the cavern they play in. PREFERRED: UNDER in all games.
Philadelphia at Los Angeles (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Dodgers are looking to avenge a three game sweep in Philadelphia in May (-$300). LA was playing at its worst (eight consecutive defeats) at that time, but they?re a completely different team these days having won 21 of their last 27 games (+$1845 overall). The Phillies, on the other hand, have been floundering (3-8, -$440 last 10 days) and their pitching has completely fallen apart (6.71 ERA over that stretch). Stay with Da Bums, especially if the Phillies start any of their righties (27-11 at home, +$1480). BEST BET: Dodgers vs. righthanders.
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
Reality has set in for the Cubs. Their only legitimate chance at postseason play is a wildcard berth (hence the acquisition of Nomar Garciaparra), but this weekend?s opponent is also looking in that direction as well as continuing to contend in the NL West. The Cubs have been particularly anemic against southpaws on the road (only 2-7, -$595 averaging a scant 1.9 RPG), so we?ll go with Kirk Rueter who has a 3.13 lifetime ERA vs. Chicago in 86.1 innings. PREFERRED: Rueter.
Toronto at N.Y. Yankees (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
This is the third series between these teams in the last 17 days. The Yankees won a two-game set in the Bronx that was highlighted by a brilliant, seven inning performance (no runs, four hits, 10 Ks) by Orlando Hernandez (+$500 in 5 starts) and took two of three in Toronto. The Blue Jays received a pair of stellar performances (12.2 innings, 0.71 ERA, .119 BAA) a week apart against the Pinstripers from ex-teammate Ted Lilly with nothing to show from it, but we?ll steer clear of him nevertheless, because of the Bombers 16-3, (+$1180 record at home vs. lefthanders). BEST BET; None.
Boston at Detroit (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
This is the first meeting of the year. The Red Sox had a ball with the Tigers (8-1, +$600) in ?03, but this is a much different team especially against righties (+$1895) or as an underdog (+$1235). The Red Sox really haven?t done much more than beat the Yankees (eight of 13) and have been particularly ineffective on the road (-$1580), so we?ll gravitate toward the scrappy, hard-hitting (.279 BA) Tigers. BEST BET: Tigers in all games.
Texas at Baltimore (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
Everyone and his uncle hammered the Rangers last year including the Orioles who were 7-2 (+$635). Even though the Rangers are vastly improved (+$1800 this year as opposed to +$255 in?04), they?re below .500 (26-29) on the road and we?re still not confident enough in their pitching to go against the Orioles? ?O? in Camden Yards. PREFERRED: None.
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Pale Hose has defeated the Tribe in seven of eleven meetings (+$185) this season, but that might not mean much considering the way they?ve been playing lately (lost seven of 11, -$525) . With the Sox? offense impaired due to the losses of Frank Thomas and Maglio Ordonez and management looking to Jose Contreras as a possible savior, we want no part of them right now. The Pale Hose are just 13-19 (-$840) vs. lefties, we?re happy to jump on Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia as well as a Cleveland offense with the second best BA (.280) in MLB. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the White Sox.
Oakland at Minnesota (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
Not only are the Twins and Athletics battling the White Sox and Rangers for first place in their respective divisions, but they?re also fighting one another for the wildcard slot. That makes this series critical for both of them. Both teams are hot, so we advise caution. The only match up that looks appealing is the red hot Johan Santana (3.30 ERA in 23 starts) who has won three straight and seven of his last nine decisions. BEST BET: Santana.
Anaheim at Kansas City (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Angels probably can?t wait to get to Kansas City where it looks like the Royals can?t wait for the season to end. The Royals have lost 8 of their last 11 (-$405) and their pitching is in shambles (starters have a 5.44 ERA at home and a 7.37 ERA in their last 15 games) and, folks, we can?t think of a situation that makes them a good play despite their home dog status, especially vs. righties (24-49, -$2275). PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Royals.