- Mar 2, 2006
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I didn't think I would play anything the first couple days, but found one I liked for opening night.
Bulls-Heat
NBA opening night kicks off with the champions hosting a revived Bulls team. A championship team, coupled with the long anticipated return of Derrick Rose, makes this by far the most compelling game of the night. Of course, sending Joey Crawford in adds some additional appeal. The referees for the game tonight include Crawford, Corbin, and Lindsay. Last season, these refs combined for a record of 82-113 O/U (42.1%), and 30-44 O/U (40.5%) when the total is between 185-194.5. These veteran referees like to maintain control of games.
This should be a physical battle between two teams that have no great love for each other. The coaches for the Heat brought out football pads in practice this week for the first time this year. Bosh: "It's all planned. We know they're big, physical and we know we have to finish." Lebron: "We don't like them, they don't like us." Tonight?s total is set at 188.5, and the Heat?s team total is 96.5. When the Heat score less than 100 points in the regular season, they are 39-68 ATS (36.4%) since Lebron joined the team, and 17-31 ATS (35.4%) at home.
As usual, Thibodeau?s squad is focused on defense, which was evident in the preseason, where they were the only team to finish 8-0, holding all opponents under 100 points and giving up the lowest field goal percentage in the league. While the preseason doesn?t mean much, they were taking it seriously and coalescing well as a team with the return of Rose. Under Thibodeau, the Bulls have held their opponents to less points than expected in 56.4% of all their games, and within 3 points of expected in 66.6% of their games and they are 112-61-3 ATS (64.7%) in these games. If they can hold the Heat within three points of their expectation, they will not reach the 100 mark.
A lot has been made of the championship ceremony being a distraction for the Heat on opening night, and many of their players suggested that the ceremony be moved to a different day, and Spoelstra called it an ?awkward night?. Of course, since then, they have also tried to downplay it, but teams recently have struggled in this position. Teams that won the NBA championship last season are 2-8 ATS on opening night over the last ten seasons. The Heat did win SU and ATS last season in this position against the Celtics, but Wade should also remember the 2006 season opener when they played the Bulls at home and lost 66-108. Maybe that?s added motivation for a couple players left from that game, but overall, I expect the Bulls to be the more focused team. They managed to play well against the Heat in the playoffs last season when they were completely depleted, and now they have a fully healthy team to take their revenge.
Over the past three seasons, during the regular season the Bulls are 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS against the Heat, and in all twenty-one games (including playoffs) they have held them to an average of 92.9 points per game, and only four times allowed them 100 or more in regulation. The Bulls should be able to hold the Heat under their expected 96.5 points, and if they do, they have a great chance to cover or win outright. On opening night, teams should be able to give all their effort, and for the Bulls, that means great defense.
Bulls +5 -108
Good luck!
Bulls-Heat
NBA opening night kicks off with the champions hosting a revived Bulls team. A championship team, coupled with the long anticipated return of Derrick Rose, makes this by far the most compelling game of the night. Of course, sending Joey Crawford in adds some additional appeal. The referees for the game tonight include Crawford, Corbin, and Lindsay. Last season, these refs combined for a record of 82-113 O/U (42.1%), and 30-44 O/U (40.5%) when the total is between 185-194.5. These veteran referees like to maintain control of games.
This should be a physical battle between two teams that have no great love for each other. The coaches for the Heat brought out football pads in practice this week for the first time this year. Bosh: "It's all planned. We know they're big, physical and we know we have to finish." Lebron: "We don't like them, they don't like us." Tonight?s total is set at 188.5, and the Heat?s team total is 96.5. When the Heat score less than 100 points in the regular season, they are 39-68 ATS (36.4%) since Lebron joined the team, and 17-31 ATS (35.4%) at home.
As usual, Thibodeau?s squad is focused on defense, which was evident in the preseason, where they were the only team to finish 8-0, holding all opponents under 100 points and giving up the lowest field goal percentage in the league. While the preseason doesn?t mean much, they were taking it seriously and coalescing well as a team with the return of Rose. Under Thibodeau, the Bulls have held their opponents to less points than expected in 56.4% of all their games, and within 3 points of expected in 66.6% of their games and they are 112-61-3 ATS (64.7%) in these games. If they can hold the Heat within three points of their expectation, they will not reach the 100 mark.
A lot has been made of the championship ceremony being a distraction for the Heat on opening night, and many of their players suggested that the ceremony be moved to a different day, and Spoelstra called it an ?awkward night?. Of course, since then, they have also tried to downplay it, but teams recently have struggled in this position. Teams that won the NBA championship last season are 2-8 ATS on opening night over the last ten seasons. The Heat did win SU and ATS last season in this position against the Celtics, but Wade should also remember the 2006 season opener when they played the Bulls at home and lost 66-108. Maybe that?s added motivation for a couple players left from that game, but overall, I expect the Bulls to be the more focused team. They managed to play well against the Heat in the playoffs last season when they were completely depleted, and now they have a fully healthy team to take their revenge.
Over the past three seasons, during the regular season the Bulls are 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS against the Heat, and in all twenty-one games (including playoffs) they have held them to an average of 92.9 points per game, and only four times allowed them 100 or more in regulation. The Bulls should be able to hold the Heat under their expected 96.5 points, and if they do, they have a great chance to cover or win outright. On opening night, teams should be able to give all their effort, and for the Bulls, that means great defense.
Bulls +5 -108
Good luck!
