St. Louis Cardinals -150
Washington Nationals -157
Under 7? (-120) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
1 unit bet wins 4.00
real interesting piece below on why Toronto starter Happ, this past month, has been better than usual...
Good luck all!! :00hour :toast: <a href="http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php" title="Smiley"><img src="http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-dance016.gif" alt="Smiley" border="0" /></a> :spotting: :clap: :slomo :0074
2014 parlay record: 11-54, +29.49 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...
Lake Como, Italy
ripped, stolen, cut and pasted from the internets:
Cardinals Ace Adam Wainwright is 26-6 in his team starts against the money line (81.2%) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last two seasons. Away from Busch Stadium, the right-hander is 9-3 in 13 starts with a 1.32 ERA, the lowest road mark in baseball. Wainwright will face the Marlins for the first time since 2010. He's 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA in six starts and two relief appearances against them.
===
'Nats in bounce back mode'
Washington dropping their finale of a three game set in Atlanta Sunday night look to get back into the win column when they visit New York Mets. Matt Williams' troops have Doug Fister toeing the rubber carrying a 11-3 record on the campaign with a 2.49 ERA over 16 starts (12-4 TSR). Fister's last start was a dominating one, allowing just one run over 7 1/3 innings in a win over these same Mets.
Washington is certainly in good hands. Fister knows how to follow up a strong performance with another stellar effort. When allowing two or less runs in his previous start, the Nationals are 8-3 in his subsequent appearance on the mound. Adding to that betting nugget, Nationals are 7-3 with Fister following a team loss in their previous effort, 7-3 in his ten starts under the light's.
This being a road game against the Metropolitans should get the attention of bettors keeping close tabs on Washington. The Nationals are already 3-0 this season at Citi Field and have won 18 of 22 as visitor in this series. Taking road favorite can be a risky proposition, though in this case, the amount of supporting data in favor of Washington makes it much less risky.
-----
The Jays are a resilient team and that is symbolized by the performance of Tuesday starter J.A. Happ. He can certainly be enigmatic but when he is on he can dominate and he has had great success against the Mariners? biggest bat, Robinson Cano. In his last game out he had his best start of the season striking out 12 Orioles.
In a spot where the Jays need him again I think he can rise to the occasion and be good value.
----
Brian Mills@BMMillsy
My new working paper. MLB performance standards and umpire accuracy. Umps account for 30-40% of offensive decline:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2478447
-----
CARDINALS
We have to take Wainwright at this price. The Cards are 17-6 when he starts this year. He has a 9-3 road record with a 1.32 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Cosart?s is making his second start as a Marlin. He has struggled giving up 23 earned runs over his last 5 starts. He has pitched less than 6 innings in each of his last 5 starts as well.
ROCKIES @ PADRES ? OVER
Over in Padres game not usually the plan, but it makes so much sense here! Flande for the Rockies in 34.1 innings owns a 1.34 WHIP and a 5.77 ERA and has given up 3+ runs in 5 of his 6 starts. Meanwhile Despaigne for the Padres has lost the touch he had when he was called up and now owns a 2.13 WHIP and a 7.20 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Padres have seen 7+ runs in their past 2 games. Meanwhile the Rockies have seen 7+ runs in 7 straight games and an average of 9.8 over their past 5.
NATIONALS ML -145
Fister has been LIGHTS OUT over his past 3 starts with a 0.84 WHIP and ERA. He owns a solid 1.07 WHIP and a 2.49 ERA this season. Meanwhile Montero for the Mets owns a 1.60 WHIP and a 5.40 ERA in his 20 innings this season. The Nationals own a solid 12-4 record when Fister takes the mound this season while Montero is 0-4 in his starts for the Mets.
=====
for the last 30 days, J.A. Happ has not been J.A. Happ
by Brett Talley - August 11, 2014
I?m in a big money league that has no innings cap or start limit, which makes the race for the strikeouts and wins categories a feverish one. Finding a league average starter on the waiver wire is no small task given the lower-than-normal replacement level in this particular league. Last week I considered Chase Anderson?s viability but was outbid for him by a FAAB-hoarder. This week I want to find out if J.A. Happ (2% owned) is worth adding.
If you just look at his season long numbers, ?ugh? is an appropriate response. His ERA and SIERA are both below league average, and a below average walk rate is limiting the positive effects of an above average strikeout rate as his K-BB% falls below league average as well. He?s also a fly ball pitcher pitching in a home park that isn?t favorable to fly ball pitchers. To be fair, he has given up more homers at home, but he?s actually produced better numbers at home than he has on the road. To add on a bit more, none of his secondary pitches are anywhere close to being league average for the season.
But now let?s take a turn toward the bright side. First of all, he doesn?t throw those secondary pitches a ton. He throws a slider, a curve and a change, which, combined, make up a little less than 30% of his pitches for the season. That means he has thrown his fastball(s) over 70% of the time this year. Being so reliant on the fastball generally isn?t a good thing. But guys like Bartolo Colon and Lance Lynn have been better than average recently relying heavily on their fastball and not getting much else from their secondary pitches.
The good news for Happ is that he has had success with his fastball(s). His fastball(s) have the 14th best pitch value per 100 pitches among starters with at least 90 innings. He can thank a nice spike in velocity for making his fastball a plus pitch for the first time since 2010. He?s averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball(s) this year, which is a point and a half higher than where he sat last year and 2 mph faster than his career average. But the problem is that his secondary stuff has been much worse than Colon and Lynn?s have been. Colon?s slider and Lynn?s hook have at least been close to league average, but Happ doesn?t have a secondary pitch anywhere near it for the season. And his curve and change have been big negatives (-2.72 and -3.93 per 100 pitches, respectively).
If you noticed, a couple of times I said his secondary pitches have been bad ?for the season.? But if you look at the quality of his secondary stuff over the last 30 days, it has been much better. That?s mainly because he has stopped throwing the slider in favor of more curves. He?s almost scrapped the slider completely and has cut his change usage in half to allow for more curves. About 93% of his pitches over that span have been fastball or curves with a few changes in the mix and a slider here and there. His fastball has been slightly better than it has for the season, and his curve has been just as good as his fastball over the last month. As a bonus, his change has also been about as effective. That means he?s been working with three plus pitches for the last month.
More whiffs on every pitch. That?s never a bad thing. Since June 26, both his fastballs and his curve have swinging strike rates comfortably above average. This has had a huge effect in his success against righties. Happ has a pretty normal platoon split for his career, but he?s been much better against right-handed hitters for over a month now. Since June 26, righties are hitting just .232 off Happ compared to .252 for his career.
Obviously none of this means that Happ is going to be able to continue this production. If he did, we?d be talking about a borderline top 25 starter. But it?s just one month in an otherwise below average career. That said, his improvements cannot be ignored, and I?ll be picking him up in my 12-team mixed league with no start or innings cap. In a weekly league, he?s a nice two-start pitcher this week against Seattle and the White Sox, both on the road. The White Sox game is a little scary, but he?s a nice play tomorrow night in Seattle.
If their rotation remains on schedule, here is his projected schedule the rest of the way: @SEA, @CWS, TB, NYY, @BOS, CHC, @BAL, @NYY, BAL. Looking at how those teams have performed against left-handed pitching according to wRC+, Seattle, Chicago and the Red Sox look like good matchups, the Yankees are about average, and the Rays, Cubs and Orioles look like tough matchups. That?s five out of nine games I?d feel comfortable using him. That may not warrant a full-time add unless you?re in a league deeper than 12 teams, but he?s certainly a viable spot starter.
-----
Toronto vs. Seattle
Play: Under 7?
Seattle would destroy a tired Toronto team 11-1 last night (my ONE & ONLY 10* RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR!); I think tonight?s contest sets up as a much lower-scoring affair though. The visiting Blue Jays will send J.A Happ (8-6, 4.09 ERA) to the hill who is coming off a tough luck loss; Happ limited the Orioles to two runs over eight innings while striking out a season high 12 batters. Note that Happ has been fantastic since the All Star break, sporting a 1.71 ERA in four starts. The home side counters with Chris Young (10-6, 3.27 ERA) who is coming off a winning outing, holding the Braves to three runs over five innings of work on Wednesday.
While Young has been pretty solid all year, note that he has been especially effective at home with a 7-3 record, the big right-hander has held hitters to a .191 average while boasting an impressive 2.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at Safeco Field. With these two competent starters battling it out, I?m taking a long hard look at the UNDER in this one.
---------------------
--CHW are 0-4 L4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
--CHW are 1-9 in Sales L10 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
--CHW are 1-5 in Sales L6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
--SF is 38-17 in their last 55 interleague home games.
--SF is 12-4 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
--SF is 4-1 in Vogelsongs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
--SALE is 9-21 against the run line (-14.9 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SALE 3.8, OPPONENT 3.7.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 46-19 against the run line (+24.5 Units) versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better since 1997.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.5, OPPONENT 4.2.
---
Adam Wainwright against Jared Cosart sounds like a mismatch and it is but let's see how much so. Wainwright has had a few bumps in his season but they have oddly all come at home. Wainwright though has baseballs best road ERA this year. He is 9-3 in 13 starts with a 1.32 ERA on the road. In his 12 road starts he has 7 shutouts and only one team has scored more than 2 runs. Now on the other side we have Jared Cosart.
Cosart is coming off of missing a start because of back issues but that isn't his only problem. Cosart is 1-3 in his last 5 starts with an ERA just shy of 8. While the Marlins may get a couple runs off Wainwright at home I fully expect a well pitched game and Cosart off a back injury and pitching terribly should allow the Cardinals to touch him up for enough to get a win here
Washington Nationals -157
Under 7? (-120) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
1 unit bet wins 4.00
real interesting piece below on why Toronto starter Happ, this past month, has been better than usual...
Good luck all!! :00hour :toast: <a href="http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php" title="Smiley"><img src="http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-dance016.gif" alt="Smiley" border="0" /></a> :spotting: :clap: :slomo :0074
2014 parlay record: 11-54, +29.49 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...
Lake Como, Italy
ripped, stolen, cut and pasted from the internets:
Cardinals Ace Adam Wainwright is 26-6 in his team starts against the money line (81.2%) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last two seasons. Away from Busch Stadium, the right-hander is 9-3 in 13 starts with a 1.32 ERA, the lowest road mark in baseball. Wainwright will face the Marlins for the first time since 2010. He's 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA in six starts and two relief appearances against them.
===
'Nats in bounce back mode'
Washington dropping their finale of a three game set in Atlanta Sunday night look to get back into the win column when they visit New York Mets. Matt Williams' troops have Doug Fister toeing the rubber carrying a 11-3 record on the campaign with a 2.49 ERA over 16 starts (12-4 TSR). Fister's last start was a dominating one, allowing just one run over 7 1/3 innings in a win over these same Mets.
Washington is certainly in good hands. Fister knows how to follow up a strong performance with another stellar effort. When allowing two or less runs in his previous start, the Nationals are 8-3 in his subsequent appearance on the mound. Adding to that betting nugget, Nationals are 7-3 with Fister following a team loss in their previous effort, 7-3 in his ten starts under the light's.
This being a road game against the Metropolitans should get the attention of bettors keeping close tabs on Washington. The Nationals are already 3-0 this season at Citi Field and have won 18 of 22 as visitor in this series. Taking road favorite can be a risky proposition, though in this case, the amount of supporting data in favor of Washington makes it much less risky.
-----
The Jays are a resilient team and that is symbolized by the performance of Tuesday starter J.A. Happ. He can certainly be enigmatic but when he is on he can dominate and he has had great success against the Mariners? biggest bat, Robinson Cano. In his last game out he had his best start of the season striking out 12 Orioles.
In a spot where the Jays need him again I think he can rise to the occasion and be good value.
----
Brian Mills@BMMillsy
My new working paper. MLB performance standards and umpire accuracy. Umps account for 30-40% of offensive decline:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2478447
-----
CARDINALS
We have to take Wainwright at this price. The Cards are 17-6 when he starts this year. He has a 9-3 road record with a 1.32 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Cosart?s is making his second start as a Marlin. He has struggled giving up 23 earned runs over his last 5 starts. He has pitched less than 6 innings in each of his last 5 starts as well.
ROCKIES @ PADRES ? OVER
Over in Padres game not usually the plan, but it makes so much sense here! Flande for the Rockies in 34.1 innings owns a 1.34 WHIP and a 5.77 ERA and has given up 3+ runs in 5 of his 6 starts. Meanwhile Despaigne for the Padres has lost the touch he had when he was called up and now owns a 2.13 WHIP and a 7.20 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Padres have seen 7+ runs in their past 2 games. Meanwhile the Rockies have seen 7+ runs in 7 straight games and an average of 9.8 over their past 5.
NATIONALS ML -145
Fister has been LIGHTS OUT over his past 3 starts with a 0.84 WHIP and ERA. He owns a solid 1.07 WHIP and a 2.49 ERA this season. Meanwhile Montero for the Mets owns a 1.60 WHIP and a 5.40 ERA in his 20 innings this season. The Nationals own a solid 12-4 record when Fister takes the mound this season while Montero is 0-4 in his starts for the Mets.
=====
for the last 30 days, J.A. Happ has not been J.A. Happ
by Brett Talley - August 11, 2014
I?m in a big money league that has no innings cap or start limit, which makes the race for the strikeouts and wins categories a feverish one. Finding a league average starter on the waiver wire is no small task given the lower-than-normal replacement level in this particular league. Last week I considered Chase Anderson?s viability but was outbid for him by a FAAB-hoarder. This week I want to find out if J.A. Happ (2% owned) is worth adding.
If you just look at his season long numbers, ?ugh? is an appropriate response. His ERA and SIERA are both below league average, and a below average walk rate is limiting the positive effects of an above average strikeout rate as his K-BB% falls below league average as well. He?s also a fly ball pitcher pitching in a home park that isn?t favorable to fly ball pitchers. To be fair, he has given up more homers at home, but he?s actually produced better numbers at home than he has on the road. To add on a bit more, none of his secondary pitches are anywhere close to being league average for the season.
But now let?s take a turn toward the bright side. First of all, he doesn?t throw those secondary pitches a ton. He throws a slider, a curve and a change, which, combined, make up a little less than 30% of his pitches for the season. That means he has thrown his fastball(s) over 70% of the time this year. Being so reliant on the fastball generally isn?t a good thing. But guys like Bartolo Colon and Lance Lynn have been better than average recently relying heavily on their fastball and not getting much else from their secondary pitches.
The good news for Happ is that he has had success with his fastball(s). His fastball(s) have the 14th best pitch value per 100 pitches among starters with at least 90 innings. He can thank a nice spike in velocity for making his fastball a plus pitch for the first time since 2010. He?s averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball(s) this year, which is a point and a half higher than where he sat last year and 2 mph faster than his career average. But the problem is that his secondary stuff has been much worse than Colon and Lynn?s have been. Colon?s slider and Lynn?s hook have at least been close to league average, but Happ doesn?t have a secondary pitch anywhere near it for the season. And his curve and change have been big negatives (-2.72 and -3.93 per 100 pitches, respectively).
If you noticed, a couple of times I said his secondary pitches have been bad ?for the season.? But if you look at the quality of his secondary stuff over the last 30 days, it has been much better. That?s mainly because he has stopped throwing the slider in favor of more curves. He?s almost scrapped the slider completely and has cut his change usage in half to allow for more curves. About 93% of his pitches over that span have been fastball or curves with a few changes in the mix and a slider here and there. His fastball has been slightly better than it has for the season, and his curve has been just as good as his fastball over the last month. As a bonus, his change has also been about as effective. That means he?s been working with three plus pitches for the last month.
More whiffs on every pitch. That?s never a bad thing. Since June 26, both his fastballs and his curve have swinging strike rates comfortably above average. This has had a huge effect in his success against righties. Happ has a pretty normal platoon split for his career, but he?s been much better against right-handed hitters for over a month now. Since June 26, righties are hitting just .232 off Happ compared to .252 for his career.
Obviously none of this means that Happ is going to be able to continue this production. If he did, we?d be talking about a borderline top 25 starter. But it?s just one month in an otherwise below average career. That said, his improvements cannot be ignored, and I?ll be picking him up in my 12-team mixed league with no start or innings cap. In a weekly league, he?s a nice two-start pitcher this week against Seattle and the White Sox, both on the road. The White Sox game is a little scary, but he?s a nice play tomorrow night in Seattle.
If their rotation remains on schedule, here is his projected schedule the rest of the way: @SEA, @CWS, TB, NYY, @BOS, CHC, @BAL, @NYY, BAL. Looking at how those teams have performed against left-handed pitching according to wRC+, Seattle, Chicago and the Red Sox look like good matchups, the Yankees are about average, and the Rays, Cubs and Orioles look like tough matchups. That?s five out of nine games I?d feel comfortable using him. That may not warrant a full-time add unless you?re in a league deeper than 12 teams, but he?s certainly a viable spot starter.
-----
Toronto vs. Seattle
Play: Under 7?
Seattle would destroy a tired Toronto team 11-1 last night (my ONE & ONLY 10* RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR!); I think tonight?s contest sets up as a much lower-scoring affair though. The visiting Blue Jays will send J.A Happ (8-6, 4.09 ERA) to the hill who is coming off a tough luck loss; Happ limited the Orioles to two runs over eight innings while striking out a season high 12 batters. Note that Happ has been fantastic since the All Star break, sporting a 1.71 ERA in four starts. The home side counters with Chris Young (10-6, 3.27 ERA) who is coming off a winning outing, holding the Braves to three runs over five innings of work on Wednesday.
While Young has been pretty solid all year, note that he has been especially effective at home with a 7-3 record, the big right-hander has held hitters to a .191 average while boasting an impressive 2.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at Safeco Field. With these two competent starters battling it out, I?m taking a long hard look at the UNDER in this one.
---------------------
--CHW are 0-4 L4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
--CHW are 1-9 in Sales L10 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
--CHW are 1-5 in Sales L6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
--SF is 38-17 in their last 55 interleague home games.
--SF is 12-4 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
--SF is 4-1 in Vogelsongs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
--SALE is 9-21 against the run line (-14.9 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SALE 3.8, OPPONENT 3.7.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 46-19 against the run line (+24.5 Units) versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better since 1997.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.5, OPPONENT 4.2.
---
Adam Wainwright against Jared Cosart sounds like a mismatch and it is but let's see how much so. Wainwright has had a few bumps in his season but they have oddly all come at home. Wainwright though has baseballs best road ERA this year. He is 9-3 in 13 starts with a 1.32 ERA on the road. In his 12 road starts he has 7 shutouts and only one team has scored more than 2 runs. Now on the other side we have Jared Cosart.
Cosart is coming off of missing a start because of back issues but that isn't his only problem. Cosart is 1-3 in his last 5 starts with an ERA just shy of 8. While the Marlins may get a couple runs off Wainwright at home I fully expect a well pitched game and Cosart off a back injury and pitching terribly should allow the Cardinals to touch him up for enough to get a win here
