Atlanta Braves -155
Cincinnati Reds -173
Seattle Mariners -210
Toronto Blue Jays -155
Under 8 New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
1 unit bet wins 11.04
my last post damn 4-teamer missed by 4! (pains me to think all those doggie bets I coulda tried...)..Push your luck. Hard. :00hour :toast: :spotting:
2014 parlay record: 12-61, +27.71 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...this nice 3 teamer Aug 21...
Sarah FTW!!!
ripped, or otherwise pilfered, cut and pasted from the internets:
--Madison Bumgarner may find things a bit easier than normal (10:15 PM EST) Tuesday evening as he and the San Francisco Giants welcome the Colorado Rockies to town. Bumgarner has allowed 10 homers in 297 at-bats against members of the Rockies roster, but half have been hit by Carlos Gonzalez, who is out for the season with a knee injury.
--New York Yankees right-hander Brandon McCarthy looks to continue his hot play in the Bronx as he takes the hill (7:08 PM EST) Tuesday night against the host Detroit Tigers. McCarthy is 5-2 with a 1.90 ERA and is 3-5 Over/Under in his eight assignments since being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks just prior to the trade deadline.
--Texas Rangers (1-5-3 Over/Under): The Rangers have one of the more interesting totals streaks going, with three pushes in a nine-game span - each a 6-3 Texas loss on a total of nine. Texas is 57-62-10 Over/Under for the season; the 10 pushes leads the American League. [look at prop bet of game to push}
ESPN Stats & Info@ESPNStatsInfo
Kevin Love is 1 of 8 players ever to average 19 PPG + 12 RPG. The other 7 players are all in the Hall of Fame.
New York Post Sports@nypostsports
Why Tiger Woods will never make the one call he needs to
http://nypost.com/2014/08/26/theres...w&utm_source=NYPTwitter&utm_medium=SocialFlow
Ivey League@IveyLeague
"The difference between winners and losers in poker is that winners bet most of the time and losers call most of the time." @MikeSexton_WPT
The Dream look to wrap up the series at home tonight against a Chicago team that is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing with 1 days rest.
MLB Sports Betting Preview: Cardinals @ Pirates
Pittsburgh and St. Louis get set to meet tonight in the second game of a highly important series at PNC Park. The Cards took game one thanks to a powerful effort from John Lackey and now turn to Lance Lynn to keep things going.
St. Louis is 4.5 games ahead of Pittsburgh at this time and just 1.5 back in the division relative to Milwaukee. The Pirates need a win here and it?s a good thing they turn to Gerrit Cole. The 23 year old from Newport Beach, CA had a coming out party against St. Louis in the playoffs last year and he has looked good this year since coming back from an injury in the month of June.
Outside of Matt Holiday (5-6), this Cardinal lineup has had limited success against Cole. On the flip side, Lynn has been awfully tough against the Pirates as well, with Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutcheon struggling mightily against him.
But the leadoff guys for Pittsburgh have hit him good, Starling Marte and Josh Harrison in particular. That is good news for the home team here, especially if they come out in desperation mode as this is a big game for them. Lynn?s 2014 BABIP of .297 is noticeably lower than anything he has posted throughout his young career, and the likelihood for some regression, especially on the road, makes sense.
The Ole Miss product owns an ERA of over 5.00 at PNC Park, giving up four earned in six innings of his lone appearance there this season which ended in a loss. The public is coming in on St. Louis at right around 55%, and this is simple for me as I am a big fan of Cole. Pittsburgh is too good to simply fade off, especially against an offensively inefficient team like St. Louis.
Look for Cole to provide them a spark tonight as they enter here as -130 on the ML. This is a tough price to pay for some, but the Pirates are pretty good at home. It?s plausible that this figure drops a bit come the afternoon session, but I don?t think you are missing much value should you play the number shown.
---
?Rays RH Alex Cobb (9-6, 3.01 ERA, WHIP: 1.141) - Cobb has been especially strong in his last six starts, allowing only four runs and 30 hits over 41 innings while not surrendering a homer. The 26-year-old is 4-1 (1-1 this season) with a 1.89 ERA in six career starts against Baltimore, with the only defeat coming on June 18 as he permitted one unearned run in seven frames. J.J. Hardy is 5-for-15 with two walks against Cobb in his career.
?Orioles LH Wei-Yin Chen (13-4, 3.76 ERA, WHIP: 1.225) - Chen has won six of seven decisions over his last eight starts while posting a 2.98 ERA in that span. The Taiwan native struggled in his last outing against the Rays on June 28, yielding five runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings, and is 3-4 with a 3.51 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against them. Ben Zobrist is 11-for-30 with a homer versus Chen, who has 109 strikeouts and 25 walks over 143 2/3 frames.
Everything would seem to be in place for the visitors to steal another victory tonight after taking yesterday's opener 3-2. The Cardinals will send Lance Lynn (14-8, 2.78 ERA) to the hill. Lynn has quietly been dominating of late, he's 6-2 with a very respectable 1.73 ERA over his last nine starts, which includes having won three straight, most recently holding the Reds to just four scattered hits over seven scoreless frames in his team's 7-3 victory on Wednesday.
The Pirates offense has been living off the long ball of late, which doesn't bode well for Pittsburgh today as Lynn has given up just three dingers in 128 2/3's innings spanning his last 21 starts. Pittsburgh counters with Gerrit Cole (7-4, 3.69 ERA) who went seven scoreless in his team's 3-2 win over the Braves on Wednesday. While Cole has had success against the Cardinals this year, I'll still give the nod to Lynn in this matchup
Red Sox at Blue Jays (-135, 8.5)
Boston won?t have shortstop Xander Bogaerts at least the rest of this week as he was put on the seven-day concussion list Sunday. He was hit in the noggin by a Felix Hernandez pitch on Friday and hadn?t played since. Yeah, I?m guessing I?d be concussed if King Felix drilled me in the head as well. David Ortiz (.265, 30 HRs, 93 RBIs) might take a game or two off as well. He left Sunday?s game with a bruised left foot and was plunked on the elbow with a pitch Saturday.
This is one of those series that the Blue Jays need to sweep if they are legitimate AL East or wild-card contenders. They are going the wrong direction, however, entering this week losing 14 of 20. R.A. Dickey gets the call for Toronto. Dickey (10-12, 4.08) is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA against Boston this season. Ortiz will want to be in there if he can be as he hits .333 with two homers and six RBIs in 18 at-bats off the knuckleballer. It?s Rubby De La Rosa (4-5, 3.69) for Boston. He?s 0-2 with a 8.10 ERA vs. Toronto.
Key trends: Boston is 1-5 in De La Rosa?s past six road starts vs. teams with a winning record. It is 1-7 in its past eight Tuesday games. Toronto has won five straight Dickey starts on Tuesday. The ?over? is 5-1 in Dickey?s past six.
Rays at Orioles (-105, 8)
Baltimore probably has enough of a cushion in the AL East that it won?t matter in that regard, but I don?t like the O?s to win any playoff series now that Manny Machado (.278, 12 HRs, 32 RBIs) is done for the season. He is without peer defensively. It?s the second straight season he has had his season end because of a torn ligament in his knee. Last year the left, this year the right. Now you have to question whether this guy can stay healthy. He should be good for spring training. The O?s might try out Chris Davis at third if they don?t make a waiver trade. Wei-Yin Chen (13-4, 3.76) starts this one for the Birds. He was hit hard on June 28 by the Rays, allowing five runs and three homers over 3.1 innings. Ben Zobrist is 11-for-30 with a homer off him. Alex Cobb (9-6) outdueled David Price in his last start for the Rays, blanking the Tigers over seven innings. He allowed three earned over five innings on June 29 vs. the Orioles.
Key trends: The Rays are 5-2 in Cobb?s past seven on the road. The Orioles are 5-1 in Chen?s past six at home. The under is 6-0 in Cobb?s past six and 5-0 in Chen?s past five.
--
The Phillies are showing great value at basically a pick'em at home with their ace Cole Hamels on the mount. Hamels has a 2.53 ERA and 1.151 WHIP over 23 starts in 2014. Hamels always seems to bring his A game against division opponents. He's got a 2.45 ERA and 1.140 WHIP versus NL East opponents this year and career 2.54 ERA and 1.062 WHIP over 30 starts against the Nationals (21-9 team record).
Washington will counter with lefy Gio Gonzalez, who is just 3-6 with 3.54 ERA over 10 road starts and 2-6 with an ugly 5.06 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over 8 starts against division opponents.
Washington has dropped each of his last 6 starts against the NL East and are just 1-5 in his last 6 road starts when listed as an underdog. Philadelphia is 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a left-handed starter, 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record and 4-1 in Hamels' last 6 home starts when listed as a favorite. These trends combine to form a Dynamite 82% (18-4) system in favor of the Phillies.
I am looking to catch Cueto on the bounce back after he gave up 4 runs in his most recent start. That ties for his second worst start of the year. That was on the road however, where he has been strong, but not automatic like we have come to find out in Cincinnati. Cueto has a road ERA of 2.56 which is strong in its own right, but that number falls to 1.81 at home. He also possesses a WHIP of 0.82 at home compared to 1.07 away.
The Cincinnati offense had a horrible stretch for awhile there, but with Brandon Philips back I think they'll be better. Considerably better? Without Joey Votto around I doubt that, however, they should do enough to give Cueto a relatively easy win here tonight. The Cubs are hitting only .227 against right-handers, they get a pretty damn good righty tonight.
The Reds' hitters will have the opportunity to do well against Travis Wood, a pitcher that has been struggling mightily. He's pitched 71.2 innings on the road and has a 6.03 ERA and 1.76 WHIP to show for it. In 13 starts on the road, 10 of them he allowed more than 2 runs. I don't think it'll take much for the Reds to win and cover -1.5 because I expect Cueto to roll through this lineup. I figure if the Reds can make it to 4 runs, which I believe they will, they'll cover the number. With that said give me the Reds.
Johnny Cueto is not pitching his best baseball of the season right now, as his 3.92 xERA in August is by far his worst month of the season. He will be looking to improve that statistic against the free-swinging Cubs, who are averaging over 10 strikeouts per game in the month of August. That should bode well here for Cueto, who has still struck out 43 batters over his past 44 innings and that has 191 K's overall in 193 frames. Great American Ballpark has been the place to be for Cueto, where he has gone 9-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 10.1 K's/9 in 13 starts. Cueto is one of the best but this one is still more about fading Travis Wood.
Wood is in terrible form, going winless over his last 12 starts, where he has only three pure quality starts while going 0-6 with a 5.45 ERA. Going on the road has been an adventure this season, as he is 4-7 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 13 starts. Wood has had the same groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate for three straight years at 35%/23%/42% and that's a profile that does not play well in hitters parks like Great American. Throw in Woods' shaky control (66 BB in 150 IP) and lack of confidence and you can see why he's a blowup risk every time he takes the hill. Seldom is it recommended to spot runs with the Reds but this is one of those games in which they figure to score plenty while giving up very little.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Atlanta (68-63) has fallen 7 1/2 games back of the Nats in the NL East (Washington now owns the NL's best record at 75-55) and is fighting to keep pace in a tight NL wild-card race (Braves are currently a half-game back of the Giants for the NL's 2nd wild card spot). The Braves open a three-game series at Citi Filed off back-to-back losses but had won SEVEN of eight prior to that.
The Mets are 61-70 and playoff hopes have faded in Queens quite some time ago. They'll hand the ball to Dillon Gee and the last time he faced the Braves (back on July 9), he won 4-1, allowing one run in seven innings. That was his fist start since coming off the DL and he hasn't won since. Gee is 0-5 with a 5.71 ERA in seven starts (Mets have lost all SEVEN!) following the All-Star break.
Taking the mound for Atlanta is lefty Alex Wood. He's 9-9 with a 3.05 ERA on the season, making 29 appearances (18 starts / 11 relief appearances). He owns a 2.83 ERA in his 18 starts this season but the Braves are just 7-11 in those games (he deserves better!). Wood wants to be known as an elite pitcher and Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez believes he has the tools to accomplish that goal. "He's been terrific," Gonzalez told MLB's official website. "He's got that mentality to be a top-tier pitcher in the major leagues, and to be in that category, you've got to go out and go eight innings, go complete games. He wants to do it. And that's more than half the battle."
I'm not making any predictions on Wood's future but I like him and the Braves here, as the Mets lose for the EIGHTH straight time with Gee on the mound.
--
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
The visiting Minnesota Twins send Ricky Nolasco (5-9, 5.96 ERA) to the hill; Nolasco gave up four runs in 6 2/3 innings in a loss to the Indians on Wednesday. In 20 tries this season, Nolasco has given the Twins a total of six quality starts (and note that against the Royals he?s allowed opposition hitters an ugly .295 average while posting a pedestrian 2-2 record with a 4.21 ERA). The home side counters with Danny Duffy (8-11, 2.53 ERA) who is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his last four starts against the Twins. Note that Kansas City took three of four in Minnesota from Aug. 15-18 during a 24-6 run just last month (it also won two of three at Kauffman Stadium against the Twins during that stretch). Despite the setback to the Yanks yesterday, Kansas City has still won eight of 12 coming in and has won five of the last six against the Twins in this series. One player to keep an eye out for in particular for the Royals is Alcides Escobar, who is 7 for 11 with two doubles and a triple against Nolasco this season; note that Escobar is batting .405 with nine extra-base hits and 18 RBIs in his last 22 games versus Minnesota overall. I think the home side is worth the price of admission in this spot, do you?!
The Royals are coming off two consecutive losses, but have still won 17 of their 23 games in August. They're looking good to bag another W tonight, as we have a clear mismatch on the mound.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Twins will hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco (5-9, 5.96 ERA) who's been hit hard all season long. He's been particularly poor on the road, where he's 2-4, posting a 7.32 ERA over 10 starts. The 31 year old has lost both his starts in August so far, allowing nine runs on 15 hits over 12 2/3 innings of work. The Royals will counter with Danny Duffy (8-11, 2.53 ERA) who's having a great season. The 25 year old may not have been at his best over his last couples of starts, but is still 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in August. He's 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA over 5 outings versus the Twins so far this season.
2. Previous History - The Royals have won five of the last six meetings, and all of Duffy's last six starts versus the Twins.
3. X-factor - KC's line-up is hitting .318 over 151 at bats versus Nolasco, with Alcides Escobar going 7-for-14 and Eric Hosmer 5-for-10.
After hardly getting national exposure this entre year, the American League Central leading Kansas City Royals (72-57, 33-28 home) are on national TV the second straight night Tuesday when they host the Minnesota Twins (58-72, 29-35 away) at 8:10 ET on FOX Sports One. Southpaw Danny Duffy will be on the bump for the Royals taking on right-hander Ricky Nolasco for the Twins. Kansas City entered a make-up game vs. the Yankees Monday night with a surprising two-game lead over the Detroit Tigers. The Twins meanwhile entered Monday dead last in the division and 14 games behind the Royals, and they tried to help Kansas City while splitting four games with the Tigers this past weekend, although they did lose the last two games after scoring 32 runs while winning the first two games of that series.
Duffy seems like a poster child for regression, not because of his 8-11 record obviously, but because his remarkable 2.53 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 128 innings this season simply do not seem sustainable given his weak sabremetric numbers. You see, Duffy is a pronounced fly ball pitcher with just a 33.9 percent ground ball rate and he does not have good command numbers with 98 strikeouts vs. 45 walks. And yet, he is somehow yielding a .231 BABIP, something that seems highly unlikely to continue, and even worse his average velocity over the last 30 days of 92.7 MPH is down from the 93.4 MPH it was before that. The bottom line is that negative regression for Duffy seems imminent, and while it is tempting to say it began when he allowed five runs in seven innings vs. the Colorado Rockies last time out, it is only fair to point out just one of the runs was earned as he allowed four unearned runs on one swing on a two-out grand slam after an error extended the inning. Still, Duffy must now deal with a suddenly hot Minnesota offense that is averaging 6.50 runs overall over the last 10 games while batting .287 vs. southpaws during this time.
The Royals are also scoring runs though while averaging 5.40 runs in their last 10 games and they are batting .276 vs. right-handers in this period, which is bad news for Nolasco. You see, Nolasco has had enough troubles this year regardless of the competition after being considered the Minnesota ace to begin the year, as he is 5-9 with a brutal 5.96 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Granted he may have been bothered by an elbow injury earlier on that ultimately landed him on the Disabled List for more than one month, but he has not really been any better in his two starts since being activated, allowing a total of nine earned runs on 15 hits plus two walks in 12.2 innings. His first start off of the DL came against these Royals in Minnesota and the results were not pretty as Nolasco was charged with five earned runs on seven hits in six innings, marking the second time this season that he allowed five earned runs in a game vs. Kansas City, doing so while allowing 11 hits in 5.2 innings on the previous occasion.
The 'over' is 13-4 in the Twins last 17 games following an off day. The 'over' is also 18-7-2 in the Royals' last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, as well as 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams.
Cincinnati Reds -173
Seattle Mariners -210
Toronto Blue Jays -155
Under 8 New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
1 unit bet wins 11.04
my last post damn 4-teamer missed by 4! (pains me to think all those doggie bets I coulda tried...)..Push your luck. Hard. :00hour :toast: :spotting:
2014 parlay record: 12-61, +27.71 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...this nice 3 teamer Aug 21...
Sarah FTW!!!
ripped, or otherwise pilfered, cut and pasted from the internets:
--Madison Bumgarner may find things a bit easier than normal (10:15 PM EST) Tuesday evening as he and the San Francisco Giants welcome the Colorado Rockies to town. Bumgarner has allowed 10 homers in 297 at-bats against members of the Rockies roster, but half have been hit by Carlos Gonzalez, who is out for the season with a knee injury.
--New York Yankees right-hander Brandon McCarthy looks to continue his hot play in the Bronx as he takes the hill (7:08 PM EST) Tuesday night against the host Detroit Tigers. McCarthy is 5-2 with a 1.90 ERA and is 3-5 Over/Under in his eight assignments since being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks just prior to the trade deadline.
--Texas Rangers (1-5-3 Over/Under): The Rangers have one of the more interesting totals streaks going, with three pushes in a nine-game span - each a 6-3 Texas loss on a total of nine. Texas is 57-62-10 Over/Under for the season; the 10 pushes leads the American League. [look at prop bet of game to push}
ESPN Stats & Info@ESPNStatsInfo
Kevin Love is 1 of 8 players ever to average 19 PPG + 12 RPG. The other 7 players are all in the Hall of Fame.
New York Post Sports@nypostsports
Why Tiger Woods will never make the one call he needs to
http://nypost.com/2014/08/26/theres...w&utm_source=NYPTwitter&utm_medium=SocialFlow
Ivey League@IveyLeague
"The difference between winners and losers in poker is that winners bet most of the time and losers call most of the time." @MikeSexton_WPT
The Dream look to wrap up the series at home tonight against a Chicago team that is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing with 1 days rest.
MLB Sports Betting Preview: Cardinals @ Pirates
Pittsburgh and St. Louis get set to meet tonight in the second game of a highly important series at PNC Park. The Cards took game one thanks to a powerful effort from John Lackey and now turn to Lance Lynn to keep things going.
St. Louis is 4.5 games ahead of Pittsburgh at this time and just 1.5 back in the division relative to Milwaukee. The Pirates need a win here and it?s a good thing they turn to Gerrit Cole. The 23 year old from Newport Beach, CA had a coming out party against St. Louis in the playoffs last year and he has looked good this year since coming back from an injury in the month of June.
Outside of Matt Holiday (5-6), this Cardinal lineup has had limited success against Cole. On the flip side, Lynn has been awfully tough against the Pirates as well, with Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutcheon struggling mightily against him.
But the leadoff guys for Pittsburgh have hit him good, Starling Marte and Josh Harrison in particular. That is good news for the home team here, especially if they come out in desperation mode as this is a big game for them. Lynn?s 2014 BABIP of .297 is noticeably lower than anything he has posted throughout his young career, and the likelihood for some regression, especially on the road, makes sense.
The Ole Miss product owns an ERA of over 5.00 at PNC Park, giving up four earned in six innings of his lone appearance there this season which ended in a loss. The public is coming in on St. Louis at right around 55%, and this is simple for me as I am a big fan of Cole. Pittsburgh is too good to simply fade off, especially against an offensively inefficient team like St. Louis.
Look for Cole to provide them a spark tonight as they enter here as -130 on the ML. This is a tough price to pay for some, but the Pirates are pretty good at home. It?s plausible that this figure drops a bit come the afternoon session, but I don?t think you are missing much value should you play the number shown.
---
?Rays RH Alex Cobb (9-6, 3.01 ERA, WHIP: 1.141) - Cobb has been especially strong in his last six starts, allowing only four runs and 30 hits over 41 innings while not surrendering a homer. The 26-year-old is 4-1 (1-1 this season) with a 1.89 ERA in six career starts against Baltimore, with the only defeat coming on June 18 as he permitted one unearned run in seven frames. J.J. Hardy is 5-for-15 with two walks against Cobb in his career.
?Orioles LH Wei-Yin Chen (13-4, 3.76 ERA, WHIP: 1.225) - Chen has won six of seven decisions over his last eight starts while posting a 2.98 ERA in that span. The Taiwan native struggled in his last outing against the Rays on June 28, yielding five runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings, and is 3-4 with a 3.51 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against them. Ben Zobrist is 11-for-30 with a homer versus Chen, who has 109 strikeouts and 25 walks over 143 2/3 frames.
Everything would seem to be in place for the visitors to steal another victory tonight after taking yesterday's opener 3-2. The Cardinals will send Lance Lynn (14-8, 2.78 ERA) to the hill. Lynn has quietly been dominating of late, he's 6-2 with a very respectable 1.73 ERA over his last nine starts, which includes having won three straight, most recently holding the Reds to just four scattered hits over seven scoreless frames in his team's 7-3 victory on Wednesday.
The Pirates offense has been living off the long ball of late, which doesn't bode well for Pittsburgh today as Lynn has given up just three dingers in 128 2/3's innings spanning his last 21 starts. Pittsburgh counters with Gerrit Cole (7-4, 3.69 ERA) who went seven scoreless in his team's 3-2 win over the Braves on Wednesday. While Cole has had success against the Cardinals this year, I'll still give the nod to Lynn in this matchup
Red Sox at Blue Jays (-135, 8.5)
Boston won?t have shortstop Xander Bogaerts at least the rest of this week as he was put on the seven-day concussion list Sunday. He was hit in the noggin by a Felix Hernandez pitch on Friday and hadn?t played since. Yeah, I?m guessing I?d be concussed if King Felix drilled me in the head as well. David Ortiz (.265, 30 HRs, 93 RBIs) might take a game or two off as well. He left Sunday?s game with a bruised left foot and was plunked on the elbow with a pitch Saturday.
This is one of those series that the Blue Jays need to sweep if they are legitimate AL East or wild-card contenders. They are going the wrong direction, however, entering this week losing 14 of 20. R.A. Dickey gets the call for Toronto. Dickey (10-12, 4.08) is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA against Boston this season. Ortiz will want to be in there if he can be as he hits .333 with two homers and six RBIs in 18 at-bats off the knuckleballer. It?s Rubby De La Rosa (4-5, 3.69) for Boston. He?s 0-2 with a 8.10 ERA vs. Toronto.
Key trends: Boston is 1-5 in De La Rosa?s past six road starts vs. teams with a winning record. It is 1-7 in its past eight Tuesday games. Toronto has won five straight Dickey starts on Tuesday. The ?over? is 5-1 in Dickey?s past six.
Rays at Orioles (-105, 8)
Baltimore probably has enough of a cushion in the AL East that it won?t matter in that regard, but I don?t like the O?s to win any playoff series now that Manny Machado (.278, 12 HRs, 32 RBIs) is done for the season. He is without peer defensively. It?s the second straight season he has had his season end because of a torn ligament in his knee. Last year the left, this year the right. Now you have to question whether this guy can stay healthy. He should be good for spring training. The O?s might try out Chris Davis at third if they don?t make a waiver trade. Wei-Yin Chen (13-4, 3.76) starts this one for the Birds. He was hit hard on June 28 by the Rays, allowing five runs and three homers over 3.1 innings. Ben Zobrist is 11-for-30 with a homer off him. Alex Cobb (9-6) outdueled David Price in his last start for the Rays, blanking the Tigers over seven innings. He allowed three earned over five innings on June 29 vs. the Orioles.
Key trends: The Rays are 5-2 in Cobb?s past seven on the road. The Orioles are 5-1 in Chen?s past six at home. The under is 6-0 in Cobb?s past six and 5-0 in Chen?s past five.
--
The Phillies are showing great value at basically a pick'em at home with their ace Cole Hamels on the mount. Hamels has a 2.53 ERA and 1.151 WHIP over 23 starts in 2014. Hamels always seems to bring his A game against division opponents. He's got a 2.45 ERA and 1.140 WHIP versus NL East opponents this year and career 2.54 ERA and 1.062 WHIP over 30 starts against the Nationals (21-9 team record).
Washington will counter with lefy Gio Gonzalez, who is just 3-6 with 3.54 ERA over 10 road starts and 2-6 with an ugly 5.06 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over 8 starts against division opponents.
Washington has dropped each of his last 6 starts against the NL East and are just 1-5 in his last 6 road starts when listed as an underdog. Philadelphia is 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a left-handed starter, 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record and 4-1 in Hamels' last 6 home starts when listed as a favorite. These trends combine to form a Dynamite 82% (18-4) system in favor of the Phillies.
I am looking to catch Cueto on the bounce back after he gave up 4 runs in his most recent start. That ties for his second worst start of the year. That was on the road however, where he has been strong, but not automatic like we have come to find out in Cincinnati. Cueto has a road ERA of 2.56 which is strong in its own right, but that number falls to 1.81 at home. He also possesses a WHIP of 0.82 at home compared to 1.07 away.
The Cincinnati offense had a horrible stretch for awhile there, but with Brandon Philips back I think they'll be better. Considerably better? Without Joey Votto around I doubt that, however, they should do enough to give Cueto a relatively easy win here tonight. The Cubs are hitting only .227 against right-handers, they get a pretty damn good righty tonight.
The Reds' hitters will have the opportunity to do well against Travis Wood, a pitcher that has been struggling mightily. He's pitched 71.2 innings on the road and has a 6.03 ERA and 1.76 WHIP to show for it. In 13 starts on the road, 10 of them he allowed more than 2 runs. I don't think it'll take much for the Reds to win and cover -1.5 because I expect Cueto to roll through this lineup. I figure if the Reds can make it to 4 runs, which I believe they will, they'll cover the number. With that said give me the Reds.
Johnny Cueto is not pitching his best baseball of the season right now, as his 3.92 xERA in August is by far his worst month of the season. He will be looking to improve that statistic against the free-swinging Cubs, who are averaging over 10 strikeouts per game in the month of August. That should bode well here for Cueto, who has still struck out 43 batters over his past 44 innings and that has 191 K's overall in 193 frames. Great American Ballpark has been the place to be for Cueto, where he has gone 9-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 10.1 K's/9 in 13 starts. Cueto is one of the best but this one is still more about fading Travis Wood.
Wood is in terrible form, going winless over his last 12 starts, where he has only three pure quality starts while going 0-6 with a 5.45 ERA. Going on the road has been an adventure this season, as he is 4-7 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 13 starts. Wood has had the same groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate for three straight years at 35%/23%/42% and that's a profile that does not play well in hitters parks like Great American. Throw in Woods' shaky control (66 BB in 150 IP) and lack of confidence and you can see why he's a blowup risk every time he takes the hill. Seldom is it recommended to spot runs with the Reds but this is one of those games in which they figure to score plenty while giving up very little.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Atlanta (68-63) has fallen 7 1/2 games back of the Nats in the NL East (Washington now owns the NL's best record at 75-55) and is fighting to keep pace in a tight NL wild-card race (Braves are currently a half-game back of the Giants for the NL's 2nd wild card spot). The Braves open a three-game series at Citi Filed off back-to-back losses but had won SEVEN of eight prior to that.
The Mets are 61-70 and playoff hopes have faded in Queens quite some time ago. They'll hand the ball to Dillon Gee and the last time he faced the Braves (back on July 9), he won 4-1, allowing one run in seven innings. That was his fist start since coming off the DL and he hasn't won since. Gee is 0-5 with a 5.71 ERA in seven starts (Mets have lost all SEVEN!) following the All-Star break.
Taking the mound for Atlanta is lefty Alex Wood. He's 9-9 with a 3.05 ERA on the season, making 29 appearances (18 starts / 11 relief appearances). He owns a 2.83 ERA in his 18 starts this season but the Braves are just 7-11 in those games (he deserves better!). Wood wants to be known as an elite pitcher and Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez believes he has the tools to accomplish that goal. "He's been terrific," Gonzalez told MLB's official website. "He's got that mentality to be a top-tier pitcher in the major leagues, and to be in that category, you've got to go out and go eight innings, go complete games. He wants to do it. And that's more than half the battle."
I'm not making any predictions on Wood's future but I like him and the Braves here, as the Mets lose for the EIGHTH straight time with Gee on the mound.
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Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
The visiting Minnesota Twins send Ricky Nolasco (5-9, 5.96 ERA) to the hill; Nolasco gave up four runs in 6 2/3 innings in a loss to the Indians on Wednesday. In 20 tries this season, Nolasco has given the Twins a total of six quality starts (and note that against the Royals he?s allowed opposition hitters an ugly .295 average while posting a pedestrian 2-2 record with a 4.21 ERA). The home side counters with Danny Duffy (8-11, 2.53 ERA) who is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his last four starts against the Twins. Note that Kansas City took three of four in Minnesota from Aug. 15-18 during a 24-6 run just last month (it also won two of three at Kauffman Stadium against the Twins during that stretch). Despite the setback to the Yanks yesterday, Kansas City has still won eight of 12 coming in and has won five of the last six against the Twins in this series. One player to keep an eye out for in particular for the Royals is Alcides Escobar, who is 7 for 11 with two doubles and a triple against Nolasco this season; note that Escobar is batting .405 with nine extra-base hits and 18 RBIs in his last 22 games versus Minnesota overall. I think the home side is worth the price of admission in this spot, do you?!
The Royals are coming off two consecutive losses, but have still won 17 of their 23 games in August. They're looking good to bag another W tonight, as we have a clear mismatch on the mound.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Twins will hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco (5-9, 5.96 ERA) who's been hit hard all season long. He's been particularly poor on the road, where he's 2-4, posting a 7.32 ERA over 10 starts. The 31 year old has lost both his starts in August so far, allowing nine runs on 15 hits over 12 2/3 innings of work. The Royals will counter with Danny Duffy (8-11, 2.53 ERA) who's having a great season. The 25 year old may not have been at his best over his last couples of starts, but is still 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in August. He's 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA over 5 outings versus the Twins so far this season.
2. Previous History - The Royals have won five of the last six meetings, and all of Duffy's last six starts versus the Twins.
3. X-factor - KC's line-up is hitting .318 over 151 at bats versus Nolasco, with Alcides Escobar going 7-for-14 and Eric Hosmer 5-for-10.
After hardly getting national exposure this entre year, the American League Central leading Kansas City Royals (72-57, 33-28 home) are on national TV the second straight night Tuesday when they host the Minnesota Twins (58-72, 29-35 away) at 8:10 ET on FOX Sports One. Southpaw Danny Duffy will be on the bump for the Royals taking on right-hander Ricky Nolasco for the Twins. Kansas City entered a make-up game vs. the Yankees Monday night with a surprising two-game lead over the Detroit Tigers. The Twins meanwhile entered Monday dead last in the division and 14 games behind the Royals, and they tried to help Kansas City while splitting four games with the Tigers this past weekend, although they did lose the last two games after scoring 32 runs while winning the first two games of that series.
Duffy seems like a poster child for regression, not because of his 8-11 record obviously, but because his remarkable 2.53 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 128 innings this season simply do not seem sustainable given his weak sabremetric numbers. You see, Duffy is a pronounced fly ball pitcher with just a 33.9 percent ground ball rate and he does not have good command numbers with 98 strikeouts vs. 45 walks. And yet, he is somehow yielding a .231 BABIP, something that seems highly unlikely to continue, and even worse his average velocity over the last 30 days of 92.7 MPH is down from the 93.4 MPH it was before that. The bottom line is that negative regression for Duffy seems imminent, and while it is tempting to say it began when he allowed five runs in seven innings vs. the Colorado Rockies last time out, it is only fair to point out just one of the runs was earned as he allowed four unearned runs on one swing on a two-out grand slam after an error extended the inning. Still, Duffy must now deal with a suddenly hot Minnesota offense that is averaging 6.50 runs overall over the last 10 games while batting .287 vs. southpaws during this time.
The Royals are also scoring runs though while averaging 5.40 runs in their last 10 games and they are batting .276 vs. right-handers in this period, which is bad news for Nolasco. You see, Nolasco has had enough troubles this year regardless of the competition after being considered the Minnesota ace to begin the year, as he is 5-9 with a brutal 5.96 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Granted he may have been bothered by an elbow injury earlier on that ultimately landed him on the Disabled List for more than one month, but he has not really been any better in his two starts since being activated, allowing a total of nine earned runs on 15 hits plus two walks in 12.2 innings. His first start off of the DL came against these Royals in Minnesota and the results were not pretty as Nolasco was charged with five earned runs on seven hits in six innings, marking the second time this season that he allowed five earned runs in a game vs. Kansas City, doing so while allowing 11 hits in 5.2 innings on the previous occasion.
The 'over' is 13-4 in the Twins last 17 games following an off day. The 'over' is also 18-7-2 in the Royals' last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, as well as 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams.
