Cleveland Indians -155 vs Minnesota Twins
Baltimore Orioles -127 vs Boston Red Sox
Los Angeles Angels -140 vs Texas Rangers
1 unit bet wins 4.04
May the most you wish for be the least you get. :00hour :toast: :spotting: :clap: :slomo
2014 parlay record: 12-69, +18.71 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...this nice 3 teamer Aug 21...
taking pole dancing to new heights
pilfered cut and pasted from the internets:
Toronto Blue Jays lefty Mark Buehrle is on the lookout for a victory Tuesday as he hosts the Chicago Cubs. Buehrle has just one win since the All-Star break after going into the stretch with 10 victories ? and has four no-decisions in his last five starts, all Toronto victories.
The Baltimore Orioles hope to continue riding the hot hand Tuesday as they send right-hander Chris Tillman to the hill against the host Boston Red Sox. The Orioles have won each of Tillman?s last eight starts, helping vault him into top spot on the pitcher value chart at +$1,320 entering Tuesday.
It could be a long night for the Dodgers hitters on Tuesday as they take on Andrew Cashner and the Padres. Members of the Los Angeles roster are hitting a paltry .225 in 129 combined at-bats versus Cashner, with just eight extra-base hits ? and zero home runs ? over that stretch.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES -126
I was really surprised to see the opening number where it was on tonight?s Orioles/Red Sox hookup. The Orioles just keep winning games, which the Red Sox most certainly are not doing, and it sure looks as through Baltimore has a significant edge on the mound tonight.
Chris Tillman was a candidate for metrics overachiever of the year at one point this season. He really wasn?t pitching especially well but kept finding ways to win. Tillman is still winning, but now those W?s are getting more legit. He?s still prone to the occasional lapses in command, but Tillman has been churning out lots of quality starts lately. That?s really all he?s required to do with the Orioles prolific attack there to lend support. Tillman has still yet to taste defeat on the road for the entire season, standing 7-0 on his decisions. The O?s are 10-4 in his road starts, and 21-9 overall, including victories the last eight times Tillman has taken the mound.
Anthony Ranaudo will throw for the Red Sox this evening. Ranaudo is a pretty good prospect, but he?s far from a finished product. The BB/K ratio is a bit discouraging, and I?d have to grade his 3-1 record as a bit deceiving. Ranaudo really needs to avoid issuing free passes against this opponent. The Orioles can turn those walks into crooked numbers in a hurry with their power and just their knack for being remarkably opportunistic.
The Red Sox had yet another game on Monday where they had chances and could not cash in with any timely hits. That?s been a problem all season and is really as big a reason as any as to why they?re a last place team. Yet for whatever reason, they have never been priced like one, and that looks to be the case again tonight. Better team, better pitcher and the Birds are right back on Momentum Street with the big comeback on Sunday and the shutout win on Monday. I have no problem laying what seems to be a moderate tag and I?ll be on the Orioles tonight.
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Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman is 14-4 in his team starts against the money line (77.7%) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The right hander has also been spectacular on the year recording a 13-3 ledger versus poor power teams that are averaging 0.9 or less home runs? per game. Baltimore may lack a marquee name at the top of their rotation, but Tillman has developed into one of baseball's most consistent starters.
His current run is among the best in franchise history. The California native looks to keep his perfect road record intact and help the Orioles move another step closer to an American League East title Tuesday night against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Despite not having any Cy Young Award candidates or even an All-Star pitcher, Baltimore's 3.73 ERA from its rotation ranks sixth in the AL. The Orioles have three starters with at least 11 wins, with Tillman ranking third behind Wei-Yin Chen (14) and Bud Norris (12).
I like this one as we are getting a good price on the Angels -1.5. Taking into consideration how bad Colby Lewis is at home, I find it to be a fine price. Lewis may in fact be one of the worst pitchers in his own backyard in baseball. The numbers are quite eye opening, and note that Lewis has 69 innings of work at home, this isn't just a few bad starts. His ERA is at 7.17, a 1.70 WHIP, and .380 OBP, all in Texas. His last couple of home starts were brutal, 4 allowed against the Royals, and 5 allowed against this Angels team. L.A. went for 10 hits as well in that one. Prior to that game, he gave up 11 runs and 13 hits to the Angels in only 2.1 innings pitched. Needless to say these Angels have a great history against Lewis this season. He hasn't been doing well recently as well, giving up 4 runs in each of his last three starts. Hector Santiago got hit for 4 runs last game, but otherwise has been strong. In 8 of his last 10 starts, Santiago gave up just a run or no runs in those starts. Lewis' track record at home certainly reflects how the Rangers have been playing at home as a team. They are 25-43 at home. In addition, Texas was on an 8 game losing streak before snapping that two nights ago with a 1-0 win over the Mariners. In their last nine games the Rangers have averaged only 1.8 runs per game! They'll be going up against a 88-55 Angels team that is 41-31 on the road. At +114 on the run line I like taking a shot with L.A. in this game against the Rangers who are already looking forward to offseason vacation plans.
The Chicago Cubs won?t be playing in October, and that is nothing new. While they have played respectable at home on the season where they are just a game under .500, the road has been another story all together where they are now 29-44 on the season. Mark Buehrle has the top mark in the last decade when pitching as a home favorite. While he has not recorded a win in six straight starts, the Jays have won four of those, so he continues to get it done. Jake Arrieta has a career 6.00 ERA vs. the Jays, and facing them on the road the already inflated ERA skyrockets to 7.31. Buehrle has destroyed losing teams, leaving the Jays at the top of the heap when he faces them at 18-3 in his last 21 starts vs. a losing team. Take Toronto.
When Mike Leake starts the Reds are 10-0 since August 14, 2010 at home after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $1000.
The Giants are 1-13-1 OU since August 28, 2012 as a 140+ favorite after a 5+ run loss.
Arizona vs San Francisco
Pick: Under 7
Yusmeiro Petit has had one good start and one bad start for the San Francisco Giants since taking the rotation spot of the demoted Tim Lincecum, but his history vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks suggests that we should see the ?good? Petit here. Petit has faced Arizona twice in his brief career, first allowing two runs on seven hits with an impressive 10 strikeouts in six innings in Phoenix, and then tossing a Complete Game one-hit shutout vs. the Snakes here at AT&T Park. However, Petit may not get much support as southpaw Wade Miley is in fine form for the D-Backs entering this contest off of five straight Quality Starts, and the last time Miley faced the Giants he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing just four hits in this stadium on July 12th. The ?under? is 9-4-1 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings in San Francisco.
Chicago +135 over TORONTO
The Cubs were on fire before a game that was suspended against the Pirates last week put a halt to their momentum. Chicago went on to lose both the suspended game the next day and the regularly scheduled game and they haven?t won since. Still, it?s only four games and these Cubbies are playing too well and having too much fun to allow a four-game losing streak to dampen their spirits. Now the Cubs have a great chance to get back in the ?W? column with this favorable pitching match-up. Jake Arrieta has produced the biggest skill growth from 2013 to 2014 of any starter in the game. His skills have been outstanding: 9.8 K?s/9, 2.6 BB/9, 50% GB% and a 12% swing and miss rate. In 134 innings overall, Arrieta has 139 strikeouts, a skills supported 2.81 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
Mark Buehrle went eight shutout innings in his last start, however that marked just his third quality game in his last 11 starts. In that time, he has had a tough go of it, going 1-4 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.69 WHIP, well supported by a 4.57 xERA. With 10 wins and a 2.50 ERA in the first half, Mark Buehrle was the talk of the town in Toronto but he has slowed considerably since then, winning just once since the start of July. It?s not hard to see what?s been going on. Buehrle?s first half success was driven by a high strand% and low hit% and hr/f. xERA shows that his skills were basically the same they?ve been the past few years. In the second half ? where the base skills aren?t too different ? he?s being hammered by a high hit % and normal strand rate. Buehrle is also giving up more fly balls in the second half. Buehrle is as consistent as they come; he?s earned his AAA reliability grade. That consistency means it was unlikely, after 12 major league seasons, that he had suddenly become a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. With an XERA in the 4.10-4.20 range for the past few years, that?s a good level to expect for Buehrle over the rest of the season and that makes him too big a risk when spotting a tag. The Cubs bring with them a .727 OPS versus left handed pitching, which is third best in the NL. Definitely some value in this one.
Baltimore Orioles -127 vs Boston Red Sox
Los Angeles Angels -140 vs Texas Rangers
1 unit bet wins 4.04
May the most you wish for be the least you get. :00hour :toast: :spotting: :clap: :slomo
2014 parlay record: 12-69, +18.71 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...this nice 3 teamer Aug 21...
taking pole dancing to new heights
pilfered cut and pasted from the internets:
Toronto Blue Jays lefty Mark Buehrle is on the lookout for a victory Tuesday as he hosts the Chicago Cubs. Buehrle has just one win since the All-Star break after going into the stretch with 10 victories ? and has four no-decisions in his last five starts, all Toronto victories.
The Baltimore Orioles hope to continue riding the hot hand Tuesday as they send right-hander Chris Tillman to the hill against the host Boston Red Sox. The Orioles have won each of Tillman?s last eight starts, helping vault him into top spot on the pitcher value chart at +$1,320 entering Tuesday.
It could be a long night for the Dodgers hitters on Tuesday as they take on Andrew Cashner and the Padres. Members of the Los Angeles roster are hitting a paltry .225 in 129 combined at-bats versus Cashner, with just eight extra-base hits ? and zero home runs ? over that stretch.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES -126
I was really surprised to see the opening number where it was on tonight?s Orioles/Red Sox hookup. The Orioles just keep winning games, which the Red Sox most certainly are not doing, and it sure looks as through Baltimore has a significant edge on the mound tonight.
Chris Tillman was a candidate for metrics overachiever of the year at one point this season. He really wasn?t pitching especially well but kept finding ways to win. Tillman is still winning, but now those W?s are getting more legit. He?s still prone to the occasional lapses in command, but Tillman has been churning out lots of quality starts lately. That?s really all he?s required to do with the Orioles prolific attack there to lend support. Tillman has still yet to taste defeat on the road for the entire season, standing 7-0 on his decisions. The O?s are 10-4 in his road starts, and 21-9 overall, including victories the last eight times Tillman has taken the mound.
Anthony Ranaudo will throw for the Red Sox this evening. Ranaudo is a pretty good prospect, but he?s far from a finished product. The BB/K ratio is a bit discouraging, and I?d have to grade his 3-1 record as a bit deceiving. Ranaudo really needs to avoid issuing free passes against this opponent. The Orioles can turn those walks into crooked numbers in a hurry with their power and just their knack for being remarkably opportunistic.
The Red Sox had yet another game on Monday where they had chances and could not cash in with any timely hits. That?s been a problem all season and is really as big a reason as any as to why they?re a last place team. Yet for whatever reason, they have never been priced like one, and that looks to be the case again tonight. Better team, better pitcher and the Birds are right back on Momentum Street with the big comeback on Sunday and the shutout win on Monday. I have no problem laying what seems to be a moderate tag and I?ll be on the Orioles tonight.
---
Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman is 14-4 in his team starts against the money line (77.7%) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The right hander has also been spectacular on the year recording a 13-3 ledger versus poor power teams that are averaging 0.9 or less home runs? per game. Baltimore may lack a marquee name at the top of their rotation, but Tillman has developed into one of baseball's most consistent starters.
His current run is among the best in franchise history. The California native looks to keep his perfect road record intact and help the Orioles move another step closer to an American League East title Tuesday night against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Despite not having any Cy Young Award candidates or even an All-Star pitcher, Baltimore's 3.73 ERA from its rotation ranks sixth in the AL. The Orioles have three starters with at least 11 wins, with Tillman ranking third behind Wei-Yin Chen (14) and Bud Norris (12).
I like this one as we are getting a good price on the Angels -1.5. Taking into consideration how bad Colby Lewis is at home, I find it to be a fine price. Lewis may in fact be one of the worst pitchers in his own backyard in baseball. The numbers are quite eye opening, and note that Lewis has 69 innings of work at home, this isn't just a few bad starts. His ERA is at 7.17, a 1.70 WHIP, and .380 OBP, all in Texas. His last couple of home starts were brutal, 4 allowed against the Royals, and 5 allowed against this Angels team. L.A. went for 10 hits as well in that one. Prior to that game, he gave up 11 runs and 13 hits to the Angels in only 2.1 innings pitched. Needless to say these Angels have a great history against Lewis this season. He hasn't been doing well recently as well, giving up 4 runs in each of his last three starts. Hector Santiago got hit for 4 runs last game, but otherwise has been strong. In 8 of his last 10 starts, Santiago gave up just a run or no runs in those starts. Lewis' track record at home certainly reflects how the Rangers have been playing at home as a team. They are 25-43 at home. In addition, Texas was on an 8 game losing streak before snapping that two nights ago with a 1-0 win over the Mariners. In their last nine games the Rangers have averaged only 1.8 runs per game! They'll be going up against a 88-55 Angels team that is 41-31 on the road. At +114 on the run line I like taking a shot with L.A. in this game against the Rangers who are already looking forward to offseason vacation plans.
The Chicago Cubs won?t be playing in October, and that is nothing new. While they have played respectable at home on the season where they are just a game under .500, the road has been another story all together where they are now 29-44 on the season. Mark Buehrle has the top mark in the last decade when pitching as a home favorite. While he has not recorded a win in six straight starts, the Jays have won four of those, so he continues to get it done. Jake Arrieta has a career 6.00 ERA vs. the Jays, and facing them on the road the already inflated ERA skyrockets to 7.31. Buehrle has destroyed losing teams, leaving the Jays at the top of the heap when he faces them at 18-3 in his last 21 starts vs. a losing team. Take Toronto.
When Mike Leake starts the Reds are 10-0 since August 14, 2010 at home after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $1000.
The Giants are 1-13-1 OU since August 28, 2012 as a 140+ favorite after a 5+ run loss.
Arizona vs San Francisco
Pick: Under 7
Yusmeiro Petit has had one good start and one bad start for the San Francisco Giants since taking the rotation spot of the demoted Tim Lincecum, but his history vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks suggests that we should see the ?good? Petit here. Petit has faced Arizona twice in his brief career, first allowing two runs on seven hits with an impressive 10 strikeouts in six innings in Phoenix, and then tossing a Complete Game one-hit shutout vs. the Snakes here at AT&T Park. However, Petit may not get much support as southpaw Wade Miley is in fine form for the D-Backs entering this contest off of five straight Quality Starts, and the last time Miley faced the Giants he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing just four hits in this stadium on July 12th. The ?under? is 9-4-1 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings in San Francisco.
Chicago +135 over TORONTO
The Cubs were on fire before a game that was suspended against the Pirates last week put a halt to their momentum. Chicago went on to lose both the suspended game the next day and the regularly scheduled game and they haven?t won since. Still, it?s only four games and these Cubbies are playing too well and having too much fun to allow a four-game losing streak to dampen their spirits. Now the Cubs have a great chance to get back in the ?W? column with this favorable pitching match-up. Jake Arrieta has produced the biggest skill growth from 2013 to 2014 of any starter in the game. His skills have been outstanding: 9.8 K?s/9, 2.6 BB/9, 50% GB% and a 12% swing and miss rate. In 134 innings overall, Arrieta has 139 strikeouts, a skills supported 2.81 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
Mark Buehrle went eight shutout innings in his last start, however that marked just his third quality game in his last 11 starts. In that time, he has had a tough go of it, going 1-4 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.69 WHIP, well supported by a 4.57 xERA. With 10 wins and a 2.50 ERA in the first half, Mark Buehrle was the talk of the town in Toronto but he has slowed considerably since then, winning just once since the start of July. It?s not hard to see what?s been going on. Buehrle?s first half success was driven by a high strand% and low hit% and hr/f. xERA shows that his skills were basically the same they?ve been the past few years. In the second half ? where the base skills aren?t too different ? he?s being hammered by a high hit % and normal strand rate. Buehrle is also giving up more fly balls in the second half. Buehrle is as consistent as they come; he?s earned his AAA reliability grade. That consistency means it was unlikely, after 12 major league seasons, that he had suddenly become a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. With an XERA in the 4.10-4.20 range for the past few years, that?s a good level to expect for Buehrle over the rest of the season and that makes him too big a risk when spotting a tag. The Cubs bring with them a .727 OPS versus left handed pitching, which is third best in the NL. Definitely some value in this one.
