Monday Gab:
Lots of 1-run games, 5/9 Monday.
The bullpen nightmare is, in fact, officially over (Yanks bullpen reversed the curse yesterday) as Foulke, Isringhausen, and company managed to close out their games.
More evidence of why I partied for a week straight when the Blue Jays signed Roger Clemens, and why I cried for a week when he was traded ... for Wells!
Shane Reynolds is officially back.
Tom Glavine is officially due for a DL stint.
The Reds officially suck.
Tuesday June 19th 2001
======================
DR=days rest
NP=number of pitches
RC=record as starter
TRC=team's record as starter
WHIP=(walks + hits) / innings pitched
ERA=establishing revenue again
3RATE=rating of pitcher's last 3 starts weighted towards more recent ones...
...min=6, max=30
Notes on 3RATE: 3 reasonable, quality starts would give a total of 18. 1 of the same, a crappy start, and a great start might also total 18. The past does not predict the future.
...Teams with higher 3RATE pitcher went 7-1 on Monday. Teams with 3RATE differential of 5 or more went 4-0 on Monday. Silly me, I was only on 3 of them, and actually went against the Brew-crew (where was Griffey? dang it
)
Stats are from Yahoo save for any opponents batting averages and slugging averages provided (and their corresponding HR #'s). The latter are from Baseball Weekly and are current through games of June 11th. Opponents BA (LH and RH) are given when over .280 or under .220. Slugging average (SLG) when over .500 or under .400.
NAME...DR...NP...RC/TRC...WHIP...ERA...3RATE
Sheets....4.....96.....7-4/7-5.....1.42.....3.38.....16.5
Acevedo*......major league debut
...Sheets SLG .396 (incl. 0.9 HR/9 IP)
...*NOTE: this is not Juan, from Colorado (trades are never kept that secret), as I was speculating pre-edit ... thanks to the posters who cleared that up for me; I.E. has set up a link, in a different thread, if you want info on this guy
--------------------
Chen........5....106....2-3/5-7....1.32....4.35.....18
Beimel......5.....79.....1-1/1-2....1.36....3.16.....12*
...Chen SLG .538 (incl. 2.1 HR/9 IP)
...Beimel LH .214, SLG .324 (incl. 0.5 HR/9 IP)
...Phills have lost 6 of past 8 Chen starts; Chen 3RATE based on starts against Tampa Bay, NYMets, and Expos, so this # is not a reliable reason to go Chenatic
...*Beimel 3RATE pro-rated for last 2 since rejoining rotation; made 16 appearances in relief after 1st start, April 8th @Hous: 5 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, W9-3 (so why not stick with him, instead of using Olivares, Arroyo, etc?)
--------------------
Mattes......just up from minors
Trachsel...4....103.....1-8/1-9...1.65...7.27......16*
...anybody know anything about this Mattes dude? I guess Mike Thurman isn't ready to go yet
...Trachsel RH .386, SLG .622 (incl 2.6 HR/9 IP)
...*Trachsel 3RATE pro-rated for 2 starts since being recalled from minors
...red rover, red rover, this game should go over; mind you, both of these offenses suck, so anything is possible; Trachsel's recent "success" was against Baltimore and Tampa Bay, so I'm predicting a drop in his 3RATE the next time he starts (go, go, Guerrero!)
...just learned that Piazza hurt his thumb and left yesterday's game; still, he is probable; Shinjo missed Monday, but he is no force; an over play here requires the Expos to get to Trachsel ... far from an impossibility; not poundable, though, with these offenses
--------------------
Smith.......4...109....3-2/3-5....1.21....4.33.......11
Marquis....7*...13....0-0/0-1....1.10....3.19.......N/A
...Smith RH .153, SLG .367 (incl 1 HR/9 IP)
...Marquis LH .163, RH .188, SLG .346 (incl 1.5 HR/9 IP)
...Marlins have lost 4 straight Smith starts
...*relief appearance; Marquis has made 17 relief appearances and just 1 start, May 12th @LA: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, ND0-1 (vs Brown)
...if Preston Wilson (Fla) and Brian Jordan (Atl) are sitting then this is an under play for me
--------------------
Chacon....4...115.....4-3/5-4....1.37...4.78......20
Oswalt......4....86......2-0/3-0....1.19...3.19......17
...Chacon RH .283, SLG .500 (incl 1.4 HR/9 IP -- remember he often pitches at Coors)
...Oswalt RH .180, SLG .374 (incl 1.1 HR/9 IP)
...Chacon had a beauty start vs Houston, at Coors, June 7th: 8 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 2 ER, 2 BB, 13 K, L1-2 (vs rejuvenated Reynolds)
--------------------
Bere.......4...97.....4-3/6-6.....1.44....4.99.......16
Morris.....5...105....8-4/9-5....1.22....2.93.......14.5
...Bere LH .286
...Morris SLG .364 (incl 0.7 HR/9 IP)
...I was hoping for -140, at worst, for the Cards with Morris here ... at -165 I'm probably just a spectator, or a minor wagererer; Morris hasn't been at his last lately, most recently vs Royals, Cubs, and Reds, not exactly powerhouses; maybe the extra day of rest will help him; Edmonds was back in the lineup, and McGwire is starting to hit, which also helps
---------------------
Ortiz........5...113....8-4/8-6....1.47....3.66.......18.5
Eaton......5....89.....7-3/8-5....1.30....4.78......18.5
...Ortiz LH .314, RH .207, SLG .349 (incl 0.3 HR/9 IP)
...Eaton LH .297, RH .207
...Yahoo posts that the reassignment of Ortiz's regular catcher, Estalella, might affect his game; I can't see this being a major factor in this one, though it may be used post hoc if he has a bad game; he does pitch better at home, but this competition is very suspect, and there will probably be several Giants backers in attendance (of course I know that's not the only factor in his home-field thing, silly)
...either way, I liked SF at -130, so I guess I'm on the -115; still, Padres beat Giants @SF on June 7th, 10-7, in an Eaton/Ortiz game
...over/under on Bonds intentional walks is 1.5
--------------------
Johnson....4...126....8-4/11-4...1.04...2.64.....21
Dreifort......6...105....4-5/6-7.....1.35...4.75.....12.5
...Johnson LH .135, RH .217, SLG .322 (incl 0.8 HR/9 IP)
...Dreifort SLG .383 (incl 1.0 HR/9 IP)
...Johnson 3 straight W's; D'Backs have won 4 straight Johnson starts and 8 of past 9
...I was originally thinking that I liked Johnson at -150 (ha ha ha ha ha -- -200? in LA? give me a break!) but LA, at home, looks tempting at +170; Dreifort has talent, including a more than 2:1 K to BB ratio, and close to a K/IP, but he is inconsistent and has not yet honed his talent; also, Johnson only seems to lose to crappy opponents like Mark Gardner and ... and (actually, the others were Ankiel, Kile, and Glavine); ahhh, it will just be LA small ... unless I come to my senses
...I just learned that Mark Grace is still sitting, day-to-day with a boo-boo on his left middle finger. This improves the Dodgers chances. The under, too. But 7? Can I buy a couple of runs? One? A vowel, maybe?
----------
$$$$$
----------
Keisler......4...114.....1-1/2-1....2.00...7.71......N/A
Sparks.....1*...10......4-2/7-6....1.46...4.13......14.5
...Keisler LH,RH,SLG? (can't be good)
...Sparks LH .281
...Keisler's made 1 start since being recalled, June 14th vs Mont: 6.2 IP, 5 H (0), 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W9-6
...*Sparks brief appearance 2 days ago was in relief; DR=4, NP=110 for his last start; knuckleheads can get away with this (i.e. knuckeballers)
--------------------
Hamilton.....5...114....3-3/7-7....1.64...4.70.....17.5
Towers.......4....95.....3-0/3-1....1.01...2.09.....24.5
...Hamilton LH .326, RH .320, SLG .514 (incl 0.9 HR, and a whopping 30 doubles allowed!)
...Towers SLG .364 (incl 0.8 HR/9 IP)
...I don't know if I can watch this one; Jays have been hitting, just not with runners in scoring position; Hamilton's been better lately, and O's bats are comedic, so sounds like an under to me
--------------------
Milton......5...117....7-3/10-4....1.28...3.63......19.5
Colon......5....120....5-6/7-7.....1.30...4.20........19
...Milton LH .316
...Colon LH (.275) 50 points higher than RH
...what on earth is Colon doing with a 4.20 era? this is not a career year for this guy; many small, nagging injuries all season for Colon
...I wanted the Injuns at -140 ... may go as high as -150 if it fits the ole budget; Twins are McSlip-sliding away
--------------------
Wakefield.....5...99....2-1/3-2....1.18...2.34.....19.5
Rekar..........5...115...1-7/1-11...1.42...5.15.....13
...Wakefield LH .212, SLG .324 (incl 0.6 HR/9 IP)
...Rekar RH .297
...I liked Boston at -120 (har har); -160 is a joke
...TBay has won 1 Rekar start in a row
--------------------
Suppan.......4...119....3-5/6-8....1.48...4.52....15.5
Baldwin.......4.....81.....2-4/5-5...1.44...4.43....11.5
...Suppan RH .331
...Baldwin RH .308
...I'm usually looking for unders, as far as totals go, but these overs have become waaay too tempting; this one is no cinch, not with these offenses, but it sure is tempting (and tempting is such a devilish word, ain't it?)
...well ... KC's lineup sucks, and "slugger" Mark Quinn being out is obviously not helping their run production; the 5 the ChiSox got off of Durbin & company also may not increase, so don't quote me on the over
--------------------
Schoenweis..5...93....6-4/9-4...1.41...3.71.....20
Bell...............5...81....0-5/1-8*...1.42...5.48.....7.5
...Schoenweis LH .154, RH .313, SLG .362 (incl 0.4 HR/9 IP)
...*Bell was just acquired from Cincy, so these numbers are with a (maybe) worse club than the Rangers; wish I could say that I've seen this guy pitch, but I haven't; he's supposedly a hard-thrower, but so what? Cincy obviously didn't covet him that much and the Rangers pitching staff is so bad that Steves Trachsel and Parris would improve their rotation
...Schoenweis may be worth a shot, or this game may be better left alone, considering the Bell uncertainty factor; if only Schoey could face nothing but lefties, aye?
--------------------
Abbott......4...95....6-2/7-2....1.34...4.25........22
Heredia....4...73....4-5/4-8....1.70...6.24........18.5
...Abbott RH .210
...Heredia LH .298, RH .373, SLG .576 (incl 2.3 HR/9 IP)
...Heredia last 3 starts against Padres, Giants, and Orioles, so this is another 3RATE that should diminish for the next posting; while I would trade Steve Parris for a pack of gum, I would have to think long and hard about trading him for Heredia
...Abbott has been sharp, and A's barely beat M's yesterday in a favourable pitching matchup; me thinks that the M's 2 losses in a row might be their limit, at least in this scenario
...Jaha back in A's lineup will help their pitiful attack, but I just learned that I can get -122 from my book, not the -135 that I saw posted at the greek, so I must to be giving M's the money; M is for money, ain't it? time will tell
======================================
[This message has been edited by EXTRAPOLATER (edited 06-19-2001).]
Lots of 1-run games, 5/9 Monday.
The bullpen nightmare is, in fact, officially over (Yanks bullpen reversed the curse yesterday) as Foulke, Isringhausen, and company managed to close out their games.
More evidence of why I partied for a week straight when the Blue Jays signed Roger Clemens, and why I cried for a week when he was traded ... for Wells!
Shane Reynolds is officially back.
Tom Glavine is officially due for a DL stint.
The Reds officially suck.
Tuesday June 19th 2001
======================
DR=days rest
NP=number of pitches
RC=record as starter
TRC=team's record as starter
WHIP=(walks + hits) / innings pitched
ERA=establishing revenue again
3RATE=rating of pitcher's last 3 starts weighted towards more recent ones...
...min=6, max=30
Notes on 3RATE: 3 reasonable, quality starts would give a total of 18. 1 of the same, a crappy start, and a great start might also total 18. The past does not predict the future.
...Teams with higher 3RATE pitcher went 7-1 on Monday. Teams with 3RATE differential of 5 or more went 4-0 on Monday. Silly me, I was only on 3 of them, and actually went against the Brew-crew (where was Griffey? dang it
Stats are from Yahoo save for any opponents batting averages and slugging averages provided (and their corresponding HR #'s). The latter are from Baseball Weekly and are current through games of June 11th. Opponents BA (LH and RH) are given when over .280 or under .220. Slugging average (SLG) when over .500 or under .400.
NAME...DR...NP...RC/TRC...WHIP...ERA...3RATE
Sheets....4.....96.....7-4/7-5.....1.42.....3.38.....16.5
Acevedo*......major league debut
...Sheets SLG .396 (incl. 0.9 HR/9 IP)
...*NOTE: this is not Juan, from Colorado (trades are never kept that secret), as I was speculating pre-edit ... thanks to the posters who cleared that up for me; I.E. has set up a link, in a different thread, if you want info on this guy
--------------------
Chen........5....106....2-3/5-7....1.32....4.35.....18
Beimel......5.....79.....1-1/1-2....1.36....3.16.....12*
...Chen SLG .538 (incl. 2.1 HR/9 IP)
...Beimel LH .214, SLG .324 (incl. 0.5 HR/9 IP)
...Phills have lost 6 of past 8 Chen starts; Chen 3RATE based on starts against Tampa Bay, NYMets, and Expos, so this # is not a reliable reason to go Chenatic
...*Beimel 3RATE pro-rated for last 2 since rejoining rotation; made 16 appearances in relief after 1st start, April 8th @Hous: 5 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, W9-3 (so why not stick with him, instead of using Olivares, Arroyo, etc?)
--------------------
Mattes......just up from minors
Trachsel...4....103.....1-8/1-9...1.65...7.27......16*
...anybody know anything about this Mattes dude? I guess Mike Thurman isn't ready to go yet
...Trachsel RH .386, SLG .622 (incl 2.6 HR/9 IP)
...*Trachsel 3RATE pro-rated for 2 starts since being recalled from minors
...red rover, red rover, this game should go over; mind you, both of these offenses suck, so anything is possible; Trachsel's recent "success" was against Baltimore and Tampa Bay, so I'm predicting a drop in his 3RATE the next time he starts (go, go, Guerrero!)
...just learned that Piazza hurt his thumb and left yesterday's game; still, he is probable; Shinjo missed Monday, but he is no force; an over play here requires the Expos to get to Trachsel ... far from an impossibility; not poundable, though, with these offenses
--------------------
Smith.......4...109....3-2/3-5....1.21....4.33.......11
Marquis....7*...13....0-0/0-1....1.10....3.19.......N/A
...Smith RH .153, SLG .367 (incl 1 HR/9 IP)
...Marquis LH .163, RH .188, SLG .346 (incl 1.5 HR/9 IP)
...Marlins have lost 4 straight Smith starts
...*relief appearance; Marquis has made 17 relief appearances and just 1 start, May 12th @LA: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, ND0-1 (vs Brown)
...if Preston Wilson (Fla) and Brian Jordan (Atl) are sitting then this is an under play for me
--------------------
Chacon....4...115.....4-3/5-4....1.37...4.78......20
Oswalt......4....86......2-0/3-0....1.19...3.19......17
...Chacon RH .283, SLG .500 (incl 1.4 HR/9 IP -- remember he often pitches at Coors)
...Oswalt RH .180, SLG .374 (incl 1.1 HR/9 IP)
...Chacon had a beauty start vs Houston, at Coors, June 7th: 8 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 2 ER, 2 BB, 13 K, L1-2 (vs rejuvenated Reynolds)
--------------------
Bere.......4...97.....4-3/6-6.....1.44....4.99.......16
Morris.....5...105....8-4/9-5....1.22....2.93.......14.5
...Bere LH .286
...Morris SLG .364 (incl 0.7 HR/9 IP)
...I was hoping for -140, at worst, for the Cards with Morris here ... at -165 I'm probably just a spectator, or a minor wagererer; Morris hasn't been at his last lately, most recently vs Royals, Cubs, and Reds, not exactly powerhouses; maybe the extra day of rest will help him; Edmonds was back in the lineup, and McGwire is starting to hit, which also helps
---------------------
Ortiz........5...113....8-4/8-6....1.47....3.66.......18.5
Eaton......5....89.....7-3/8-5....1.30....4.78......18.5
...Ortiz LH .314, RH .207, SLG .349 (incl 0.3 HR/9 IP)
...Eaton LH .297, RH .207
...Yahoo posts that the reassignment of Ortiz's regular catcher, Estalella, might affect his game; I can't see this being a major factor in this one, though it may be used post hoc if he has a bad game; he does pitch better at home, but this competition is very suspect, and there will probably be several Giants backers in attendance (of course I know that's not the only factor in his home-field thing, silly)
...either way, I liked SF at -130, so I guess I'm on the -115; still, Padres beat Giants @SF on June 7th, 10-7, in an Eaton/Ortiz game
...over/under on Bonds intentional walks is 1.5
--------------------
Johnson....4...126....8-4/11-4...1.04...2.64.....21
Dreifort......6...105....4-5/6-7.....1.35...4.75.....12.5
...Johnson LH .135, RH .217, SLG .322 (incl 0.8 HR/9 IP)
...Dreifort SLG .383 (incl 1.0 HR/9 IP)
...Johnson 3 straight W's; D'Backs have won 4 straight Johnson starts and 8 of past 9
...I was originally thinking that I liked Johnson at -150 (ha ha ha ha ha -- -200? in LA? give me a break!) but LA, at home, looks tempting at +170; Dreifort has talent, including a more than 2:1 K to BB ratio, and close to a K/IP, but he is inconsistent and has not yet honed his talent; also, Johnson only seems to lose to crappy opponents like Mark Gardner and ... and (actually, the others were Ankiel, Kile, and Glavine); ahhh, it will just be LA small ... unless I come to my senses
...I just learned that Mark Grace is still sitting, day-to-day with a boo-boo on his left middle finger. This improves the Dodgers chances. The under, too. But 7? Can I buy a couple of runs? One? A vowel, maybe?
----------
$$$$$
----------
Keisler......4...114.....1-1/2-1....2.00...7.71......N/A
Sparks.....1*...10......4-2/7-6....1.46...4.13......14.5
...Keisler LH,RH,SLG? (can't be good)
...Sparks LH .281
...Keisler's made 1 start since being recalled, June 14th vs Mont: 6.2 IP, 5 H (0), 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W9-6
...*Sparks brief appearance 2 days ago was in relief; DR=4, NP=110 for his last start; knuckleheads can get away with this (i.e. knuckeballers)
--------------------
Hamilton.....5...114....3-3/7-7....1.64...4.70.....17.5
Towers.......4....95.....3-0/3-1....1.01...2.09.....24.5
...Hamilton LH .326, RH .320, SLG .514 (incl 0.9 HR, and a whopping 30 doubles allowed!)
...Towers SLG .364 (incl 0.8 HR/9 IP)
...I don't know if I can watch this one; Jays have been hitting, just not with runners in scoring position; Hamilton's been better lately, and O's bats are comedic, so sounds like an under to me
--------------------
Milton......5...117....7-3/10-4....1.28...3.63......19.5
Colon......5....120....5-6/7-7.....1.30...4.20........19
...Milton LH .316
...Colon LH (.275) 50 points higher than RH
...what on earth is Colon doing with a 4.20 era? this is not a career year for this guy; many small, nagging injuries all season for Colon
...I wanted the Injuns at -140 ... may go as high as -150 if it fits the ole budget; Twins are McSlip-sliding away
--------------------
Wakefield.....5...99....2-1/3-2....1.18...2.34.....19.5
Rekar..........5...115...1-7/1-11...1.42...5.15.....13
...Wakefield LH .212, SLG .324 (incl 0.6 HR/9 IP)
...Rekar RH .297
...I liked Boston at -120 (har har); -160 is a joke
...TBay has won 1 Rekar start in a row
--------------------
Suppan.......4...119....3-5/6-8....1.48...4.52....15.5
Baldwin.......4.....81.....2-4/5-5...1.44...4.43....11.5
...Suppan RH .331
...Baldwin RH .308
...I'm usually looking for unders, as far as totals go, but these overs have become waaay too tempting; this one is no cinch, not with these offenses, but it sure is tempting (and tempting is such a devilish word, ain't it?)
...well ... KC's lineup sucks, and "slugger" Mark Quinn being out is obviously not helping their run production; the 5 the ChiSox got off of Durbin & company also may not increase, so don't quote me on the over
--------------------
Schoenweis..5...93....6-4/9-4...1.41...3.71.....20
Bell...............5...81....0-5/1-8*...1.42...5.48.....7.5
...Schoenweis LH .154, RH .313, SLG .362 (incl 0.4 HR/9 IP)
...*Bell was just acquired from Cincy, so these numbers are with a (maybe) worse club than the Rangers; wish I could say that I've seen this guy pitch, but I haven't; he's supposedly a hard-thrower, but so what? Cincy obviously didn't covet him that much and the Rangers pitching staff is so bad that Steves Trachsel and Parris would improve their rotation
...Schoenweis may be worth a shot, or this game may be better left alone, considering the Bell uncertainty factor; if only Schoey could face nothing but lefties, aye?
--------------------
Abbott......4...95....6-2/7-2....1.34...4.25........22
Heredia....4...73....4-5/4-8....1.70...6.24........18.5
...Abbott RH .210
...Heredia LH .298, RH .373, SLG .576 (incl 2.3 HR/9 IP)
...Heredia last 3 starts against Padres, Giants, and Orioles, so this is another 3RATE that should diminish for the next posting; while I would trade Steve Parris for a pack of gum, I would have to think long and hard about trading him for Heredia
...Abbott has been sharp, and A's barely beat M's yesterday in a favourable pitching matchup; me thinks that the M's 2 losses in a row might be their limit, at least in this scenario
...Jaha back in A's lineup will help their pitiful attack, but I just learned that I can get -122 from my book, not the -135 that I saw posted at the greek, so I must to be giving M's the money; M is for money, ain't it? time will tell
======================================
[This message has been edited by EXTRAPOLATER (edited 06-19-2001).]
