unc @ uva

loophole

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cavs +11: in the tradition of my avatar, I submit that the tarheels are the pretenders of the acc and will lay out my case. let's deconstruct unc's record. heels currently sit @ 5-2. two ofthose wins (pitt, @ fsu) were miracle wins in games that the heels should have lost. while those two teams are decent, neither are fielding their best teams this year. the other 3 wins came vs james madison, Illinois, and @ Miami, who we all know ain't all that this year. the two losses came @ Georgia in a down season for the bulldogs, and then the heels were gang raped in chapel hill by the hokies, a real football team. take away the two miracle wins and the heels are 3-5, dead in the water and, instead of talking about an acc championship game, they'd be talking about larry fedora's job in chapel hill. so today the heels take to the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks, after games @ fsu, vs va tech, and @ Miami, unc travels to Charlottesville for the 121st meeting of the south's oldest rivalry. while they might not consider this a rivalry game in chapel hill, they still do in Charlottesville. just ask mike London, the former cav coach who got shown the door after going 0-6 vs unc during his tenure. also, this has been a bad injury week for the heel. Carolina's star wr and return man mack hollins is out; also out are lg caleb Peterson and rt jon heck. that leaves the heels with 2 o line starters they began the season with.

cavs are in the middle of an inconsistent year, but had a decent streak going with wins against a decent c mich team and @ duke until they collapsed in the second half of last week's game vs pitt, at least partially because of some look-ahead to this game. there's been a little buzz on uva's campus this week because of an anti-hazing lawsuit brought by a former player, that names, among others, a couple of cav receivers and asst coaches, but it doesn't appear to have been too much of a distraction. I like this setup enough to go a unit with the +1 and a unit on the moneyline @ +350.


ok saint, you're up.


glta
 

lowell

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Do you know why the line went from 7 to 11?
If UVA does not have a good pass defense it may be a long day for the Cavs.
On the other hand if UVA has a good running game they may rush for 250 yards.
 

loophole

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hey Lowell. don't know about opening -7. I'm seeing an opener of -10- that was bet down to -7- over a couple days, then bet back up to -11. I'm seeing around 65-70% action on the heels.
 

lowell

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Justed checked one vegas site and it shows line opening at 7.
I may take UVA but they are ranked 100 th in pass defense giving up 280 yds a game.Did not spend too much time researching the stats but I show UVA does not have the rushing game to take advantage of the poor UNC rushing defense. I think we may have a 41-31 type game .
Line seems too high at 10.5.
State line also seems too high but maybe State will be flat after the Clemson game and Louisville will play hard after their poor performance against Duke. State has a great rushing D and I think they will force Louisville to throw the ball.
Once team point totals are posted I may play State under and UNC over.
 
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loophole

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remember no hollins today, that's a lot of deep threat and return threat gone. and with the o line issues (somebody's likely to be playing out of position) the passing game may falter. if the total goes much higher, i'll look at an under play.
 

lowell

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remember no hollins today, that's a lot of deep threat and return threat gone. and with the o line issues (somebody's likely to be playing out of position) the passing game may falter. if the total goes much higher, i'll look at an under play.

Forgot about Hollins. If I can find a prop play for Switzer I will play it.
Thoughts on Pack game?
 

loophole

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well when the week started I was wondering how they could survive in louisville after the Clemson loss. now there appears to be some sharp action on the pack. I'm staying away from that one.
 

lowell

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Played State under 23 point total along with my first 10 pt teaser this year.
State plus 29.5, UNC -.5 and Auburn -.5.
Go Pack.
 

lowell

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Cards score in 1.5 minutes. .
Now a INT by State QB.
Looks like a blowout is coming.
 

lowell

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I think my State plus 29.5 teaser has no chance! Under 23 points for State however is looking good.
Looks like it will be 48-0 at the half.
 
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