Under 58 Tonight Csu @ Nmu

[Mick Onofrio]

It seems the total was set high at 61 yet I'm getting the feeling it's a popular play...I mean correct me if I'm wrong but it seems more people are going Over tonight yet the Total keeps coming down. Anyways...on with why I like the UNDER tonight. It's not gonna be a big play because I am 3-0 since Tuesday all on totals. Thanks to NYRAIDER last night though. I wasn't gonna touch the game because I didn't have time to really look at it because my wife wanted a day at Elemis Spa for the whole treatment and yes, I did join her for the ride. So here's what I'm coming up with for tonight.

First, let's look at the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The totals are all based on tonight's 58. Note results for the totals for the games below can only be found for the 02 and 01 meetings which both went UNDER. Couldn't find results for the other 3 so when I say UNDER, OVER, or PUSH it's based on tonight's total.

11/23/02: NM 14 at CSU 22....UNDER
11/17/01: CSU 24 at NM 17....UNDER
10/07/00: NM 14 at CSU 17....UNDER
11/06/99: CSU 36 at NM 22....PUSH
12/06/97: NM 13 at CSU 41....UNDER

So over the last 5 meetings CSU has won them all SU and the last 2 definatley wnt UNDER the totals listed for those games and all 5 measured up against tonight's total would be 4-0-1 ATS UNDER.

CONFERENCE SCORING

CSU Avg Points For: 34.25/Avg Points Against: 24.00
Combined Average Points in all 4 CSU Conference games for 2003 is 58.25 Points.

New Mexico Avg Points for: 29.75/Avg Points Against: 22.25
Combined Average Points in all 4 Conference games for 2003 is
52.00 Points.

Combining both of the average TOTALS for conference games between New Mexico and Colorado State is 55.13 POINTS, that is adding both of their average totals and dividing them by two, naturally.

OVERALL SCORING

CSU avg points for overall 31.22/avg points against 24.10
Average Total in ALL games 55.32

NM avg points for all games overall: 32.22/ avg against 20.67
Avg Total in ALL Games 52.89

Combined Totals for both teams in all 9 games is: 54.12 Points.

I tend to look more at Conference Scoring when looking at totals in these matchups. Familiar opponents usually equals familiar results. Just looking back at the last 5 games you can see how 3 of the 5 games scored pretty much the same. That is due to the same preparation for the same team you play every year. You know that each team isn't gonna change every thing they do just because they are facing a Conference Team with the same record, they same goals, they same motivation to win. Not this late in the season. You stick with what works. Sure, there will be some suprises in the play calling but with the Jockeying for position within the MWC, I expect play calling on more of conservative approach with each team focusing on their strength...RUNNING. Much like Tuesday's MAC game with so much on the line within the conference and both teams being 2-2 in MWC play and both being a couple wins and a UTAH loss from being in the thick of things there is too much on the line to get cute and both teams have the potential to be very strong defensively. I expect a total score in the HIGH 40's to Low 50's. Possibly 24-21, 28-21...in that range. Each team will be playing for points and hoping their defense can turn in big plays so I won't suprised if the offenses live for 3 points at times. This isn't a huge play but just trying to get a little more of the man's money to play with heading into tomorrow. My Play is UNDER 58 $110 to make $100 with an anticipated Total to come in between 48 and 53 Points. Good Luck Fellas...interesting that the New Mexico coach is forcing 8 starters to take final exams today on the eve of a big conference rivalry with so much on the line rather than focus on the GAME at hand??? I wonder where their heads will be tonight????

 

[MrSports]

i see col st has beaten them everytime, what do u think about the side?

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Mr. Sports

Mr. Sports

What's up Buddy? Hey...call me Dr. Phil, but I truly believe that past behaviors and past practices are the strongest predictor of FUTURE Behaviors, results, and practices.

With so much on the line for both of these Jeckyl and Hyde teams I'm gonna bank on the Coaching Staffs devising strategies that will keep them out of a shootout, back and forth kinda game because if you look at both teams and the games they should have won it all came down to the Coaches and play calling getting out of hand and letting these kids lose heartbreaking shootouts.

 

[MrSports]

good info, i agree!! should be a good game just tough to cap

 

[Morris]

Mick,
Keep up the good write ups, really look forward to your analysis every nite. GL tonite.


Bob

 

[Mick Onofrio]

I just got back from Foxwoods

I just got back from Foxwoods

And I was able to hit and run just in time to avoid all the weekend warrior wannabe highroller bigshots. I was able to sit down at a table just as a new shoe was being shuffled and I was staking this table out for about an hour. I am a fan of the Foxwoods layout of table games for this very reason. At Mohegan Sun, the tables are staggered throughout the casino in odd locations. Like I said before, for those of you that haven't been here before these Casinos (Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods) are Tourist Attractions first and Casinos second. They get all the suckers bussed in from all over the East Coast and they are stuck there for 6-10 Hours win, lose, or draw. You can only OOOH and AAAAH at pretty things for so long before you start dropping 20's in the slots and 100's on the tables so I hope I have painted the picture about what their priorities are. Thursdays and Fridays are transitional days meaning you get your typical early morning to midday Bus Trips as usual and your solid handful of serious gamblers. Saturday, Sunday, and any Holiday forget about it. These joints are mobbed with amatuers just dying to LOSE and lose FAST. Back to the topic...I was really watching the table. It was a $15, 7's Bonus Table where there's the option of betting an additional $1 that comes into play if you draw 7's. You get 2-1 if you draw one 7 and significantly more if you draw 2+ 7's. No 7's...you lose your $1 and the $15 you bought your hand with if you can't play the game. So the Bonus 7's are like Insurance or as I like to say a whole nother game apart from actual Black Jack. I love these tables that advertise the ability to "WIN BIG" without even focusing on the task at hand which is to beat the dealer in blackjack but instead you should focus on drawing 7's. A joke!!! Back to the transitional part...the table was filled with amatuers from halfway through one shoe through the completion of another. I watched as 5 suckers must have lost a combined $700-$1000 within 1 and a half shoes. They left when the Yellow Card was dealt and moved onto the next table. I sat down and cut the cards. Three Old-School, thick accented Italians sat down. The dream scenario unfolded after one hand and I knew it would be a very profitable 30-45 minutes. These guys knew the game and it was obvious to me they were counters because I count and they would play agressive at the same time I played agressive. They also played very deliberately and I don't want to say slow but at a pace where we can all keep what we have seen in the back of our minds. So there you had it...4 guys at one table with a common goal, a common method, a common respect. I wanted to tell this story because in this industry today, this only happends once every year or two. The PERFECT BETTING SITUATION. On a table where I started with 4 Greens($25x4=$100) I walked with 8 Blacks and 2 Greens after I flipped one in the dealer's direction. A day in the life of a Gambler by Mick O. LOL. What I degenerate I can be. These days are few and far between...turning $100 into $875 on a Blackjack Table on a Friday Afternoon at a TOURIST TRAP. These are the days you have to tell about. Because believe me...you will hear plenty about the exact opposite type of days and it all starts with Kids that join in on a table as wannabe big shot highrollers and it ends with everyone at the table losing money. I have learned to avoid these types of gamblers as of late but that's a story within a story. How to spot a chump. Good Luck tonight fellas...I am still on the UNDER as I called it in at Under 58 around 12:15 this afternoon.

 

[boilermaker]

Congrats on the nice hit at the BJ table. Good Luck tonight ,like the under.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Is it just me???

Is it just me???

Or is the WORLD on PITT this week??? I haven't seen anyone on VaTech.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Adding

Adding

Making UNDER 58 a Double Play...Riding out my streak till it comes to an end...no sense in pulling up short on a 20 Timer...making it a 40 Timer:
$220 to win $200
UNDER 58(Local) New Mex/CSU

Overrated CSU Offense/Underrated Lobo Defense.

 

[THE GOAT]

MICK,
THAT STORY IS GREAT, ONLY WISH I COULDVE BEEN THERE TOO.GOOD LUCK TONIGHT.

 

[krc]

Very Nice story at the BJ table

Good Luck

love the under

 

[Iowa Child]

Not sure you can take average offensive output in the games the teams have played and deduce that the game is going over. For instance if you have two teams averaging 60 points apiece in totals for the year, that doesn't mean the total is going to be set at 60, more likely closer to 70. Just my opionion. Good luck everybody.

 

[Iowa Child]

Plus New Mexico threw for 429 yards last week, and Colorado State gave up 456 yards to Wyoming of all people. I think New Mexico is the play along with the over. More on New Mexico though.

 

[Iowa Child]

I mean "deduce the game is going under" in the earlier post. If both teams are averaging totals in the 50's the total will definately be higher than the average of their totals obviously, same is true with the under. If the teams average only totals of 42, total will probably be around 37 or 38.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

IOWA CHILD

IOWA CHILD

All I can say to you my friend is good luck with the OVER my deducer. If that's your play I'll be pulling for you guy. We can't all share the same train of thought. I just think the oddsmakers really want OVER action. To set the total as high as 61 knowing that only once in the last 5 meetings has it gotten close. They know these two teams are anything BUT diabolical opposites of each other....IN fact one team's strength IS the other team's weakness. And vice versa. Very similar teams with very similar approaches to the game...similar standings in the MWC. Put two MAGNETS TOGETHER and what happens??? This will be a very ugly BATTLE with matchups that show no clear cut favorite. I will say this again...The LOBOS have a defense that is capable of scoring 14 a game themselves and that is usually a problem when UNDERS are concerned but I will bet on two rock-solid game plans tonight in the most important game of the year for both of these teams thus far. There is NO WAY the total gets bet down 4 points...this, in my opinion, is CRAFTY NUMBERS from the oddsmakers. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong but I'm 3-0 going into this game this week in NCAA FB and being 3-1 going into Saturday playing with the Man's money is not a bad situation to be in. I'm in a postition to make this wager with confidence. If you are going the other way I sincerely wish you the best of luck. And to formally introduce myself I'm Mick and thanks for adding your criticism/thoughts to my thread. I just want to let you know that my PLAYS are built on hours of work. I don't flip a coin, I don't guess, I don't enter my research with any favoritism towards a certain wager. If I do I drop it as a play. Once I come up with a play I look for as much evidence as possible to discredit it and I couldn't find one reason to say UNDER 58 is not the best betting situation for tonight's game. Going Back to the last 5 meetings between these two teams the average score was:
Colorado State 28 New Mexico 16
My predicted total for tonight's matchup is 47 Points based on all my research and analysis. I'm Mick Onofrio...that's my play and I'm sticking to it.
Good Luck!!
Micky O.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Iowa Child

Iowa Child

To answer your "deducing" questions I didn't just come up with calulator averages. If you noticed I came up with average totals for each game each team has played in individually within their conference and within all of their games thus far this season which is nine total and four conference for each team respectfully. I then compared them with each other, against each other, as a whole, as a conference. I compared this year's numbers to numbers in the past. Where each team has stood going into this game against each other each year for the last 5. As you can see they typically play this game around the same time each year so the level of importance is about the same every time these teams meet if not for both at least for one. To say this particular game has serious Conference Standing or Bowl Game ramifacations would be an insult to each team as well as an understatement. My findings would hold less weight had it not been for familiarity between these two opponents but the factor of these two teams playing each other at about the same time each year with about the same "High stakes" on the line for at least one team every year I truly believe past practice must be factored. I think we can all rationalize that conclusion. If I lose the game it won't be by much but you can rest assured that I am 100% confident about my findings and I truly believe that I will come out of this game a winner. Not only because I am up no matter what happens but because I believe the UNDER is the place to be.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

ONE OF TWO THINGS IS HAPPENING TONIGHT

ONE OF TWO THINGS IS HAPPENING TONIGHT

1. I am making the BIGGEST PUBLIC PLAY of my career or...

2. This TOTAL is the biggest trap of the month. Sports Insighst has the breakdown tracked at 67% of the Bettors are on the OVER/ 33% UNDER. Never relied on that for much but the BIGGEST MUSH I know "LOVES" the OVER tonight. He played for $400 to chase the $400 he already owes for Denver on Monday Night.

 

[vinnie]

Yep everyone plus Me and that's not good for the Pitt backers. Been very cold to say the least the last 3 weeks. Great hit at the tables. Spent many weekends in AC until 2 1/2 years when I move to the midwest.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Looks Like 3-1 going into Saturday

Looks Like 3-1 going into Saturday

It's fitting that I finally get a loss for the week being on the side of John Q. Public and it's fitting that my MUSH friend breaks even so he can lose his balls tomorrow. I'll be playing with the man's $$$ tomorrow so if you are one of my detractors I can't be perfect all the time and none of us can for that matter so before you slam me remember that since Monday I am 4-1 not counting tonight. After this loss I'll be 4-2 +$$ going into tomorrow. Just chew on that before you chew on my thread. To all my friends...good luck tomorrow and I'm looking forward to sharing plays with yous guys. I think a lot of us took it on the chin tonight. It's not over yet but I need a miracle. Good Night,
Mick.

 

[Iowa Child]

Sorry Mick, didn't think you'd take it personal. I'll remember you from now on you don't want anybody disagreeing with you in your thread. Thought this site was about sharing opinions.