07:05 PM [956] WAS NATIONALS -210 ( L VERRETT -R / M SCHERZER -R )
07:05 PM [963] TEX RANGERS +160 ( N MARTINEZ -R / M TANAKA -R )
07:10 PM [973] CLE INDIANS -1.5 -130 ( D SALAZAR -R / J DE LA CRUZ -R )
08:15 PM [976] TOTAL u8-120 (KC ROYALS vrs STL CARDINALS) ( E VOLQUEZ -R / C MARTINEZ -R )
10:05 PM [977] SFO GIANTS +125 ( J PEAVY -R / S MANAEA -L )
1 unit bet pays 27 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-90, -17.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
Again yesterday, yet another 5+ teamer lost by one leg losing....getting real close to some breakouts boys and girls!
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Pop quiz: Which team leads the league in weighted on base average (wOBA) versus left-handers? It's none other than the Tampa Bay Rays, who'll face the southpaw slants of David Price in the finale of their set with the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field. Price appeared to be back on track until the Texas Rangers shellacked him last time out, sending the lefty to the showers after just 2 1/3 innings, whacking 12 hits leading to six runs. The home team whiffs at a high 23 percent pace versus lefties, so their former hurler and his 9.7 K/9 is in play as a GPP tournament option.
Joel De La Cruz could be called up from Triple-A Gwinnett for his major league debut. De La Cruz is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA in 21 appearances with Gwinnett, and his ERA is 3.38 in five starts...De La Cruz was summoned to the major league team twice earlier this season but did not end up appearing in a game. A nine-year minor league veteran, De La Cruz has posted a 4.68 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 44:24 K:BB in 57.2 innings with Gwinnett this season. It's hard to imagine he'll get an extended audition in the rotation...Last time out, he had the longest outing of his career, scattering eight hits and three earned runs and striking out four with only two walks over eight innings.
Joel De La Cruz (RHP - ATL)
Needing another arm, the Braves have called upon journeyman Joel De La Cruz. The 6'1", 240-pound righty has spent almost a decade in the minors, though he was called up (but not used) by the Yankees a year ago. With an average fastball (low-90s mph) and an average curve, he can be effective against RHB but has been bad against lefties. He doesn't walk that many, but his strikeout rate is poor, and he is likely up only to temporarily serve as an emergency starter. We can?t imagine things going we'll for him here against the Indians. In nine minor-league seasons his ERA is 4.10 with a 1.38 WHIP in 410.2 IP.
2015 STATS:
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (AAA) ? 15g, 7gs, 7-0, 3.25 ERA, 61.0 IP, 2.5 BB?s/9, 4.3 K?s/9 4 HR, .260 oppBA
Trenton (AA) ? 8g, 2gs, 1-2, 3.47 ERA, 23.1 IP, 1.9 BB?s/9, 5.0 K?s/9, 2 HR, .258 oppBA
Milwaukee is 8-2 when Guerra takes the ball, as entered Sunday's action with a rotation-best 3.67 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 74 2/3 innings.
Roberts left the door open a little wider for Brock Stewart, who opened this season at Class A Advanced Rancho Cucamonga and then made nine starts for Double-A Tulsa before joining Triple-A Oklahoma City. Stewart's next turn to pitch for OKC is Wednesday. A sixth-round pick in 2014, the 24-year-old Stewart is 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA at Triple-A with 27 strikeouts and only two walks in 18 2/3 innings. Combined this year, he is 8-3 with a 1.47 ERA. "He's pitched well up to Triple-A. Yeah, I mean, I hear good things," Roberts said. "He might be, if you look at what we have internally and guys that have performed, like I said yesterday, a lot of things are on the table. The way Brock has performed to this point ? if it were to happen, that's a big jump. Obviously, if we feel he's ready, that's the decision we'll make."...The former sixth round pick features a 96 mph fastball with terrific command and two different sliders.
Stewart, 24, is 8-3, 1.47 in 14 starts at high Class A, Double-A and Triple-A, with 99 strikeouts and 14 walks in 86 innings. In his past two starts, he struck out 20 and walked one in 13 innings.
Stewart?s father Jeff was the head coach at Illinois State from 1989-2002 and now is a pro scout for the Rays.
SCOUTING REPORT
Stewart spent most of his time at Illinois State at third base, but the Dodgers were intrigued by his arm strength and drafted him in the sixth round in 2014 as a pitcher. Now, his fastball touches 96 mph with advanced command. He now throws two types of sliders, one he tries to get batters to chase and one he can throw for strikes, and scouts say his harder slider is an average to tick-above pitch. His changeup has progressed to where it is now a fringe-average pitch.
Stewart has great mound presence and poise and his arm has low mileage. His physicality and pitch mix give him a viable starter profile.
WHAT TO EXPECT
The Dodgers have rotation options on the horizon in Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brandon McCarthy and Ross Stripling nearing returns, but Stewart could stick around and help keep down the workloads of all three as well as teenager Julio Urias.
Stewart is a workhorse, back-end type who will eat innings and has great makeup. He should fit in well in a veteran, high-priced clubhouse.
---
Carlos Martinez is having a curious first half as his strikeout rate has declined precipitously, despite maintaining velocity and not significantly altering his pitch distribution. The drop is supported by a lower swinging strike percent, so a rebound entails more than just regression. Looking at PitchF/X data, last season his off-speed offerings rated much higher than his fastball -- this season it's reversed, as his heater has been very effective. The other oddity is Martinez remains an extreme ground-ball hurler, and that usually results in a higher-than-average batting average on balls in play (BABIP), yet he checks in at a very low 0.246....should anticipate an ERA correction over the second half as his BABIP normalizes.
After a slow start to the season, Peavy has logged a 1.91 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP across his past six outings. The right-hander could stay hot when he works at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum against an A's squad that ranks 27th in the Majors with a .691 OPS against righties.He has done very well to limit walks, induce weak contact and allow zero homers in his past 7 starts
Manaea will obviously be on a pitch count here. It?s safe to say the A?s will be cautious with him coming off the disabled list....The rookie will rejoin the rotation after missing two weeks with a left pronator (forearm) strain. He made one rehab start Friday in Stockton, giving up two runs on two hits while striking out three over 3 2/3 innings.
Chicago @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI +178 over Chicago
Winning was so easy for the Cubbies in the first 2? months of the season but it?s not so easy anymore. Chicago is 9-9 over its past 18 games and 3-6 over its past nine. They are 2-0 in Cincinnati over the past two games but could just as easily be 0-2 after a 15-inning win last night and an 11-8 victory on Monday. In that Monday victory, the game was tied 8-8 going to the eighth inning. The Reds knocked out Jake Arrieta in the fifth inning. After facing Jon Lester and Arrieta the past two games, Cinci takes a step down in class in facing Kyle Hendricks.
Hendricks has seven pure quality starts in 14 games. He?s under .500 too with five wins and six losses. Hendricks? 2.76 ERA is the direct result of an unsustainable 78% strand rate. His strand rate over his last five games is 88%. Hendricks? is a rare breed in that he?s a finesse right-hander. His average fastball velocity is 87 MPH. There is no question that he?s serviceable but his xERA and other skills scream out that regression is forthcoming. There is also no doubt that he?s overpriced in a big way.
Cody Reed has little market appeal here because he is not known and because he has a 6.75 ERA after two starts since being called up. That provides us with a great opportunity here, as Reed?s xERA is 3.31. Reed is so impressive. He?s been done in by a high 39% hit rate and low 65% strand rate. He has all the raw stuff to dominate and that includes high heat with life, a solid groundball rate in his minor league career of 53% (52% in his first two MLB starts), a high swing and miss rate and very good control. Reed has struck out 15 batters in 12 innings over his first two starts with a 64% first-pitch strike rate. His stock is low right now because of his misleading results but he?s at the top of the class of rookie prospects. For all you fantasy players in keeper leagues, scoop this guy up as fast as you can because he has the tools to dominate for a very long time. For all you bettors, invest at prices like this.
DODGERS AT BREWERS
PLAY: DODGERS -115
Brock Stewart has been called up to fill the #5 slot for the Dodgers. His stock has skyrocketed this season with some spectacular minor league numbers. Stewart?s last two AAA starts were beyond dominating, and he could be a live newcomer for LA.
Stewart now throws mid-90?s and has been touching 96, plus he has two sliders and an improving change. Scouts have raved about his poise. So I don?t think he?ll be overwhelmed by the surroundings, and the fact he?s opening on the road is probably a plus as far as that goes.
Junior Guerra has been a very pleasant surprise for the Brewers, although I still see him as strictly a mid-rotation type. There?s no denying Guerra has exceeded expectations since getting promoted, and he has been in pretty solid form. But the overall numbers are those of a #3-4 starting pitcher, so I?m not intimidated by the prospect of trying to beat him this evening.
The Dodgers have now won 10 of their last 14, so the team is in good form. The Brewers have been pesky and have a winning record at home, so this is by no means a snap. But I like the idea of backing the unseen rookie who has been throwing it extremely well. Therefore I?m willing to spot a short price on the road with the Dodgers tonight.
MILWAUKEE +111 over Los Angeles
At 31 years old, Junior Guerra came with little fanfare when he was called up in early May. Guerra has been able to tread water at the MLB level with a 3.67 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 10 starts and it?s all legit. Guerra's above-average swing and miss rate shows he's been able to generate whiffs against MLB hitters so we can expect his decent K-rate to continue. Guerra's luck indicators haven't had a major impact either way, as his xERA is roughly in line with his surface ERA. He throws 94 MPH heat with late life. His swing and miss rate is 13% and his groundball rate in his last start was 56%. Now he?s a pooch at home to a pitcher that started the year in High-A ball.
Brock Stewart began 2016 in High-A and quickly moved his way up the ladder by mixing his pitches and continuing to post high K rates at each level. The tall, athletic righty has a very fresh arm. He was drafted in the 6th round in 2014 despite not seeing much mound time in college. The Dodgers were intrigued with his pure arm strength and athleticism and have seen him bypass several other arms in the system. Despite the lack of mileage on his arm, he has outstanding command of a three pitch arsenal. He can run his fastball into the 91-96 mph range and he mixes in a hard slider and below average change-up. Stewart throws with some effort in his delivery and while it may not be textbook, he throws good strikes to all quadrants of the zone. Thing is, he?s an extreme fly-ball pitcher and while that may play well at Chavez Ravine, it is not likely to play well at Miller Park. Stewart has 18 innings of experience above Double A and 56 innings experience above High A. Dude is moving a little too fast because the Dodgers are desperate for pitching help. Anything that starts too fast usually ends too fast and this could very well be an example of that. If Stewart is that good, all the best to him but he wasn?t even on the prospect list before the season began. He was pitching for Rancho Cucamonga in April and now he?s favoured on the road in Milwaukee in June.
Baltimore @ SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO +126 over Baltimore
Frankly, we could not care less about San Diego?s starter here. What we know for sure is that Christian Friedrich is holding his own and has given the Padres some good innings this year. This wager is all about taking a tag back against Yovani Gallardo, one of MLB?s worst, if not the worst starter in baseball. The Orioles overachieving ways may come to an end soon too so when the combination of Gallardo and Baltimore are favoured on the road, it?s an instafade.
One could make the argument that nearing the halfway mark of the 2016 season there are only two major (positive) surprise teams in baseball: the Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles. The Rangers aren?t even that surprising; they?re having the kind of breakout season that makes the skepticism difficult to remember. The team is sequencing its runs like a crooked dealer, their touted young players like Nomar Mazara and Jurickson Profar are ahead of schedule, and the pitching staff ... okay, the pitching staff still doesn?t make any sense. But it wasn?t hard to conceive of a good Texas Rangers team, even if many experts chose not to.
Not so the Orioles. After leaping out of the gate with a seven-game winning streak, the club has since held at an 87-win pace, and enjoys one of the best records in baseball. Despite analytics treating them as a sub-.500 team going forward, their banked victories still give them a coin flip?s toss at the playoffs. Real or fake, they?re in the hunt.
The Orioles are baseball?s most absurd present playoff hopeful. After playing Thug #2 to New York and Boston for more than a decade, Baltimore hasn?t had a losing record since 2011, one of only four teams in baseball to hold such a distinction. Yet few have been impressed. The Orioles were the only team in the AL East that no expert predicted to win the division, banished by most to the cellar.
The O?s only had two massive disappointments, which happen to be two of their most highly-paid players. Meanwhile, they?ve had seven players dramatically exceed expectations, and two of those (Manny Machado and Hyun-Soo Kim) so wildly that they nearly break the scale. This doesn?t mean that the team is flawless; Mike Wright isn?t a huge disappointment in terms of predictions, because he?s been just slightly worse than the terrible output analytics expected of him. There are still plenty of holes on the roster. It?s not that the Orioles are bad, necessarily, it?s that they don?t make sense.
The distinctive characteristic of team-building in the modern era of baseball is its strategy: The advantage, the loophole, the grand plan that gives a team an advantage over all others. The examples are well worn by now, but we still think of teams in terms of the edges they seek. Moneyball is cliche, but we still have the Dodgers? health research, Pittsburgh?s pitching philosophy, and the Rangers' international scouting. Baltimore lacks any such identity. They don?t draft particularly well, or develop the players they draft. They?re willing to spend, but they can?t rival Boston or Los Angeles. Their president is an old hand, and their owner is meddlesome to the point of self-destruction. They don?t do any one thing that a fan or an analyst can pick out and say, ?This is the logic. This is why this team wins.?
The Orioles also rely on variance offensively, in the form of the home run. They?ve hit more than any other team in the majors. This would seem like a defensible strategy, and it is, but there is still a quiet bias against the team that relies on power to score its runs; people feel like the home runs will stop at some point. Perhaps it will, but given the power in the lineup, it can hardly be assumed.
Still, we have a really hard time believing in Baltimore because they are so beatable. They rely far too heavily on the long ball and at some point they are going to be playing from behind in most games because their starting pitching is so bad. The O?s decision to replace the steadying force of Wei-Yen Chen with questionable in-house options and Yovani Gallardo appears, to this point, unfortunate. It may be time to start fading the Orioles almost daily for a stretch of 20 to 30 games because they are overpriced daily and should not be winning so many games.
Gallardo is the closest thing to batting practice as there is, only pitching machines throw more strikes. Gallardo has a BB/K split of 13/17 in 28 innings. His swing and miss rate is 5% and his WHIP is 1.69. Over his last 10 innings, Gallardo has walked six, hit two batters and given up 12 hits. That?s 20 baserunners over his past 10 innings but that?s what he?s been doing all year. His 87 MPH heat isn?t fooling anyone. San Diego has some of MLB?s best offensive numbers over the past 30 games and they are more than capable of putting up a crooked number here, even at Petco. This is a bad number in our favour and we?re not about to miss it.
07:05 PM [963] TEX RANGERS +160 ( N MARTINEZ -R / M TANAKA -R )
07:10 PM [973] CLE INDIANS -1.5 -130 ( D SALAZAR -R / J DE LA CRUZ -R )
08:15 PM [976] TOTAL u8-120 (KC ROYALS vrs STL CARDINALS) ( E VOLQUEZ -R / C MARTINEZ -R )
10:05 PM [977] SFO GIANTS +125 ( J PEAVY -R / S MANAEA -L )
1 unit bet pays 27 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-90, -17.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
Again yesterday, yet another 5+ teamer lost by one leg losing....getting real close to some breakouts boys and girls!
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Pop quiz: Which team leads the league in weighted on base average (wOBA) versus left-handers? It's none other than the Tampa Bay Rays, who'll face the southpaw slants of David Price in the finale of their set with the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field. Price appeared to be back on track until the Texas Rangers shellacked him last time out, sending the lefty to the showers after just 2 1/3 innings, whacking 12 hits leading to six runs. The home team whiffs at a high 23 percent pace versus lefties, so their former hurler and his 9.7 K/9 is in play as a GPP tournament option.
Joel De La Cruz could be called up from Triple-A Gwinnett for his major league debut. De La Cruz is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA in 21 appearances with Gwinnett, and his ERA is 3.38 in five starts...De La Cruz was summoned to the major league team twice earlier this season but did not end up appearing in a game. A nine-year minor league veteran, De La Cruz has posted a 4.68 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 44:24 K:BB in 57.2 innings with Gwinnett this season. It's hard to imagine he'll get an extended audition in the rotation...Last time out, he had the longest outing of his career, scattering eight hits and three earned runs and striking out four with only two walks over eight innings.
Joel De La Cruz (RHP - ATL)
Needing another arm, the Braves have called upon journeyman Joel De La Cruz. The 6'1", 240-pound righty has spent almost a decade in the minors, though he was called up (but not used) by the Yankees a year ago. With an average fastball (low-90s mph) and an average curve, he can be effective against RHB but has been bad against lefties. He doesn't walk that many, but his strikeout rate is poor, and he is likely up only to temporarily serve as an emergency starter. We can?t imagine things going we'll for him here against the Indians. In nine minor-league seasons his ERA is 4.10 with a 1.38 WHIP in 410.2 IP.
2015 STATS:
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (AAA) ? 15g, 7gs, 7-0, 3.25 ERA, 61.0 IP, 2.5 BB?s/9, 4.3 K?s/9 4 HR, .260 oppBA
Trenton (AA) ? 8g, 2gs, 1-2, 3.47 ERA, 23.1 IP, 1.9 BB?s/9, 5.0 K?s/9, 2 HR, .258 oppBA
Milwaukee is 8-2 when Guerra takes the ball, as entered Sunday's action with a rotation-best 3.67 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 74 2/3 innings.
Roberts left the door open a little wider for Brock Stewart, who opened this season at Class A Advanced Rancho Cucamonga and then made nine starts for Double-A Tulsa before joining Triple-A Oklahoma City. Stewart's next turn to pitch for OKC is Wednesday. A sixth-round pick in 2014, the 24-year-old Stewart is 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA at Triple-A with 27 strikeouts and only two walks in 18 2/3 innings. Combined this year, he is 8-3 with a 1.47 ERA. "He's pitched well up to Triple-A. Yeah, I mean, I hear good things," Roberts said. "He might be, if you look at what we have internally and guys that have performed, like I said yesterday, a lot of things are on the table. The way Brock has performed to this point ? if it were to happen, that's a big jump. Obviously, if we feel he's ready, that's the decision we'll make."...The former sixth round pick features a 96 mph fastball with terrific command and two different sliders.
Stewart, 24, is 8-3, 1.47 in 14 starts at high Class A, Double-A and Triple-A, with 99 strikeouts and 14 walks in 86 innings. In his past two starts, he struck out 20 and walked one in 13 innings.
Stewart?s father Jeff was the head coach at Illinois State from 1989-2002 and now is a pro scout for the Rays.
SCOUTING REPORT
Stewart spent most of his time at Illinois State at third base, but the Dodgers were intrigued by his arm strength and drafted him in the sixth round in 2014 as a pitcher. Now, his fastball touches 96 mph with advanced command. He now throws two types of sliders, one he tries to get batters to chase and one he can throw for strikes, and scouts say his harder slider is an average to tick-above pitch. His changeup has progressed to where it is now a fringe-average pitch.
Stewart has great mound presence and poise and his arm has low mileage. His physicality and pitch mix give him a viable starter profile.
WHAT TO EXPECT
The Dodgers have rotation options on the horizon in Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brandon McCarthy and Ross Stripling nearing returns, but Stewart could stick around and help keep down the workloads of all three as well as teenager Julio Urias.
Stewart is a workhorse, back-end type who will eat innings and has great makeup. He should fit in well in a veteran, high-priced clubhouse.
---
Carlos Martinez is having a curious first half as his strikeout rate has declined precipitously, despite maintaining velocity and not significantly altering his pitch distribution. The drop is supported by a lower swinging strike percent, so a rebound entails more than just regression. Looking at PitchF/X data, last season his off-speed offerings rated much higher than his fastball -- this season it's reversed, as his heater has been very effective. The other oddity is Martinez remains an extreme ground-ball hurler, and that usually results in a higher-than-average batting average on balls in play (BABIP), yet he checks in at a very low 0.246....should anticipate an ERA correction over the second half as his BABIP normalizes.
After a slow start to the season, Peavy has logged a 1.91 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP across his past six outings. The right-hander could stay hot when he works at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum against an A's squad that ranks 27th in the Majors with a .691 OPS against righties.He has done very well to limit walks, induce weak contact and allow zero homers in his past 7 starts
Manaea will obviously be on a pitch count here. It?s safe to say the A?s will be cautious with him coming off the disabled list....The rookie will rejoin the rotation after missing two weeks with a left pronator (forearm) strain. He made one rehab start Friday in Stockton, giving up two runs on two hits while striking out three over 3 2/3 innings.
Chicago @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI +178 over Chicago
Winning was so easy for the Cubbies in the first 2? months of the season but it?s not so easy anymore. Chicago is 9-9 over its past 18 games and 3-6 over its past nine. They are 2-0 in Cincinnati over the past two games but could just as easily be 0-2 after a 15-inning win last night and an 11-8 victory on Monday. In that Monday victory, the game was tied 8-8 going to the eighth inning. The Reds knocked out Jake Arrieta in the fifth inning. After facing Jon Lester and Arrieta the past two games, Cinci takes a step down in class in facing Kyle Hendricks.
Hendricks has seven pure quality starts in 14 games. He?s under .500 too with five wins and six losses. Hendricks? 2.76 ERA is the direct result of an unsustainable 78% strand rate. His strand rate over his last five games is 88%. Hendricks? is a rare breed in that he?s a finesse right-hander. His average fastball velocity is 87 MPH. There is no question that he?s serviceable but his xERA and other skills scream out that regression is forthcoming. There is also no doubt that he?s overpriced in a big way.
Cody Reed has little market appeal here because he is not known and because he has a 6.75 ERA after two starts since being called up. That provides us with a great opportunity here, as Reed?s xERA is 3.31. Reed is so impressive. He?s been done in by a high 39% hit rate and low 65% strand rate. He has all the raw stuff to dominate and that includes high heat with life, a solid groundball rate in his minor league career of 53% (52% in his first two MLB starts), a high swing and miss rate and very good control. Reed has struck out 15 batters in 12 innings over his first two starts with a 64% first-pitch strike rate. His stock is low right now because of his misleading results but he?s at the top of the class of rookie prospects. For all you fantasy players in keeper leagues, scoop this guy up as fast as you can because he has the tools to dominate for a very long time. For all you bettors, invest at prices like this.
DODGERS AT BREWERS
PLAY: DODGERS -115
Brock Stewart has been called up to fill the #5 slot for the Dodgers. His stock has skyrocketed this season with some spectacular minor league numbers. Stewart?s last two AAA starts were beyond dominating, and he could be a live newcomer for LA.
Stewart now throws mid-90?s and has been touching 96, plus he has two sliders and an improving change. Scouts have raved about his poise. So I don?t think he?ll be overwhelmed by the surroundings, and the fact he?s opening on the road is probably a plus as far as that goes.
Junior Guerra has been a very pleasant surprise for the Brewers, although I still see him as strictly a mid-rotation type. There?s no denying Guerra has exceeded expectations since getting promoted, and he has been in pretty solid form. But the overall numbers are those of a #3-4 starting pitcher, so I?m not intimidated by the prospect of trying to beat him this evening.
The Dodgers have now won 10 of their last 14, so the team is in good form. The Brewers have been pesky and have a winning record at home, so this is by no means a snap. But I like the idea of backing the unseen rookie who has been throwing it extremely well. Therefore I?m willing to spot a short price on the road with the Dodgers tonight.
MILWAUKEE +111 over Los Angeles
At 31 years old, Junior Guerra came with little fanfare when he was called up in early May. Guerra has been able to tread water at the MLB level with a 3.67 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 10 starts and it?s all legit. Guerra's above-average swing and miss rate shows he's been able to generate whiffs against MLB hitters so we can expect his decent K-rate to continue. Guerra's luck indicators haven't had a major impact either way, as his xERA is roughly in line with his surface ERA. He throws 94 MPH heat with late life. His swing and miss rate is 13% and his groundball rate in his last start was 56%. Now he?s a pooch at home to a pitcher that started the year in High-A ball.
Brock Stewart began 2016 in High-A and quickly moved his way up the ladder by mixing his pitches and continuing to post high K rates at each level. The tall, athletic righty has a very fresh arm. He was drafted in the 6th round in 2014 despite not seeing much mound time in college. The Dodgers were intrigued with his pure arm strength and athleticism and have seen him bypass several other arms in the system. Despite the lack of mileage on his arm, he has outstanding command of a three pitch arsenal. He can run his fastball into the 91-96 mph range and he mixes in a hard slider and below average change-up. Stewart throws with some effort in his delivery and while it may not be textbook, he throws good strikes to all quadrants of the zone. Thing is, he?s an extreme fly-ball pitcher and while that may play well at Chavez Ravine, it is not likely to play well at Miller Park. Stewart has 18 innings of experience above Double A and 56 innings experience above High A. Dude is moving a little too fast because the Dodgers are desperate for pitching help. Anything that starts too fast usually ends too fast and this could very well be an example of that. If Stewart is that good, all the best to him but he wasn?t even on the prospect list before the season began. He was pitching for Rancho Cucamonga in April and now he?s favoured on the road in Milwaukee in June.
Baltimore @ SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO +126 over Baltimore
Frankly, we could not care less about San Diego?s starter here. What we know for sure is that Christian Friedrich is holding his own and has given the Padres some good innings this year. This wager is all about taking a tag back against Yovani Gallardo, one of MLB?s worst, if not the worst starter in baseball. The Orioles overachieving ways may come to an end soon too so when the combination of Gallardo and Baltimore are favoured on the road, it?s an instafade.
One could make the argument that nearing the halfway mark of the 2016 season there are only two major (positive) surprise teams in baseball: the Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles. The Rangers aren?t even that surprising; they?re having the kind of breakout season that makes the skepticism difficult to remember. The team is sequencing its runs like a crooked dealer, their touted young players like Nomar Mazara and Jurickson Profar are ahead of schedule, and the pitching staff ... okay, the pitching staff still doesn?t make any sense. But it wasn?t hard to conceive of a good Texas Rangers team, even if many experts chose not to.
Not so the Orioles. After leaping out of the gate with a seven-game winning streak, the club has since held at an 87-win pace, and enjoys one of the best records in baseball. Despite analytics treating them as a sub-.500 team going forward, their banked victories still give them a coin flip?s toss at the playoffs. Real or fake, they?re in the hunt.
The Orioles are baseball?s most absurd present playoff hopeful. After playing Thug #2 to New York and Boston for more than a decade, Baltimore hasn?t had a losing record since 2011, one of only four teams in baseball to hold such a distinction. Yet few have been impressed. The Orioles were the only team in the AL East that no expert predicted to win the division, banished by most to the cellar.
The O?s only had two massive disappointments, which happen to be two of their most highly-paid players. Meanwhile, they?ve had seven players dramatically exceed expectations, and two of those (Manny Machado and Hyun-Soo Kim) so wildly that they nearly break the scale. This doesn?t mean that the team is flawless; Mike Wright isn?t a huge disappointment in terms of predictions, because he?s been just slightly worse than the terrible output analytics expected of him. There are still plenty of holes on the roster. It?s not that the Orioles are bad, necessarily, it?s that they don?t make sense.
The distinctive characteristic of team-building in the modern era of baseball is its strategy: The advantage, the loophole, the grand plan that gives a team an advantage over all others. The examples are well worn by now, but we still think of teams in terms of the edges they seek. Moneyball is cliche, but we still have the Dodgers? health research, Pittsburgh?s pitching philosophy, and the Rangers' international scouting. Baltimore lacks any such identity. They don?t draft particularly well, or develop the players they draft. They?re willing to spend, but they can?t rival Boston or Los Angeles. Their president is an old hand, and their owner is meddlesome to the point of self-destruction. They don?t do any one thing that a fan or an analyst can pick out and say, ?This is the logic. This is why this team wins.?
The Orioles also rely on variance offensively, in the form of the home run. They?ve hit more than any other team in the majors. This would seem like a defensible strategy, and it is, but there is still a quiet bias against the team that relies on power to score its runs; people feel like the home runs will stop at some point. Perhaps it will, but given the power in the lineup, it can hardly be assumed.
Still, we have a really hard time believing in Baltimore because they are so beatable. They rely far too heavily on the long ball and at some point they are going to be playing from behind in most games because their starting pitching is so bad. The O?s decision to replace the steadying force of Wei-Yen Chen with questionable in-house options and Yovani Gallardo appears, to this point, unfortunate. It may be time to start fading the Orioles almost daily for a stretch of 20 to 30 games because they are overpriced daily and should not be winning so many games.
Gallardo is the closest thing to batting practice as there is, only pitching machines throw more strikes. Gallardo has a BB/K split of 13/17 in 28 innings. His swing and miss rate is 5% and his WHIP is 1.69. Over his last 10 innings, Gallardo has walked six, hit two batters and given up 12 hits. That?s 20 baserunners over his past 10 innings but that?s what he?s been doing all year. His 87 MPH heat isn?t fooling anyone. San Diego has some of MLB?s best offensive numbers over the past 30 games and they are more than capable of putting up a crooked number here, even at Petco. This is a bad number in our favour and we?re not about to miss it.
