I know many of you aren't big on trends, but they always factor in to my handicapping. Whenever there is a game that is close to a PICK, I look at some Money Line stats. In the game between Utah State and Middle Tenn State I found the following...
Play on home favorites vs. the money line off a win by 35 points or more over a conference rival in the month of November...30-3 over the last 10 seasons. The average score in these games was 40-14.
This situation has not occurred yet this year, but over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is 12-0. Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is 18-0.
Similar situation, except we look at the win by 28 or more at home...
Play on Home favorites vs. the money line off a home win by 28 points or more in November games. 41-3 over the last 10 seasons...93.2%...average score in these games...38-14.
Again, this situation has yet to occur this year, but over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is 11-1. Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is 21-1 and since 1992 the situation's record is 49-3.
If this line hangs around 1 or 1.5, covering the money line SHOULD cover the spread.
Utah State has been decent of late offensively while Middle Tenn State has been giving up chunks of yardage. Add in the fact that it's foreign land to Middle Tenn (never played in the state of Utah) and I think this play is worth a shot.
Good luck!
Play on home favorites vs. the money line off a win by 35 points or more over a conference rival in the month of November...30-3 over the last 10 seasons. The average score in these games was 40-14.
This situation has not occurred yet this year, but over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is 12-0. Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is 18-0.
Similar situation, except we look at the win by 28 or more at home...
Play on Home favorites vs. the money line off a home win by 28 points or more in November games. 41-3 over the last 10 seasons...93.2%...average score in these games...38-14.
Again, this situation has yet to occur this year, but over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is 11-1. Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is 21-1 and since 1992 the situation's record is 49-3.
If this line hangs around 1 or 1.5, covering the money line SHOULD cover the spread.
Utah State has been decent of late offensively while Middle Tenn State has been giving up chunks of yardage. Add in the fact that it's foreign land to Middle Tenn (never played in the state of Utah) and I think this play is worth a shot.
Good luck!
