Utah-TCU is make or break

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Loser will be eliminated from the MWC title chase, and possibly the bowl picture


Similar preseason hopes, similar disappointing starts, similar statistics and similar improvements. The TCU-Utah football teams have made their way through the 2007 season on parallel paths.
Those paths come together tonight, in a MWC collision that is expected to send the teams ricocheting in different directions.
The winner will be in good position to land a bowl berth and maintain an outside hope of possibly getting a piece of the MWC title if the leaders slip up. The loser will be out of the conference race and will have to win three of its last four games for a seven-win season to keep bowl hopes alive.
"It's a huge game, basically an elimination game," Utah quarterback Brian Johnson called it, with thoughts that were echoed by TCU coach Gary Patterson.
"Whoever loses this game will be out of it," he said. "Then what you're going to be playing for is to get yourself into a bowl game. But I'm always looking at the positive. Then, I turn my attention to being the spoiler and getting yourself the seventh and eighth and ninth win and making it hectic for everybody else."
Neither team, though, is ready to take on the role of spoiler just as both teams believe they are on upswings after early season struggles.
Like the Utes, the Horned Frogs were hit with several key injuries early. Highly touted defender Tommy Blake played in

just three games because of mysterious medical reasons, running back Aaron Brown missed two games with a knee injury, two linemen have been lost for the year, and tight end Shae Reagan is out with a left knee fracture. Backup tailback Joseph Turner also has missed games with a foot injury.
All of the injuries have Patterson comparing this season's list of lost talent to 2004, when the Frogs finished 5-6.
But the Frogs don't seem to be headed in a similar slide, coming from behind to beat Stanford 38-36 Saturday.
"I'm very excited about our offense and the way we moved the ball and we came from behind to do it," Patterson said of the win.
The Utes view this game just as importantly as the Frogs, although coach Kyle Whittingham said he doesn't like to single any game out as a make or break game for the year.
"We treat each week the same and prepare the same way," he said.
Even so, looking at the Utes' schedule, a win tonight could give them a big boost going into their final games where they play at winless Colorado State next then home games against Wyoming and New Mexico before the season finale at BYU.
"The situations we're in, we both know it's a big game for us," safety Steve Tate said.
The Utes have the added motivation of remembering what happened the last time the teams played in Texas, when TCU took a 23-20 overtime win that ended Utah's 18-game winning streak.
"They were a great team, good in conference and they obviously ended our streak," Tate said. "It has developed into a good rivalry and obviously a game like this is going to bring out your best."
The Frogs got the 2005 win with a 4-yard touchdown pass from Michael DePriest after a teammate seemed to pick off a Utah defender with a crossing route.
"I'll just call it a crossing route for the game winner," said Whittingham, with a smile and tone that let on he didn't think it was exactly legal. "That was tough to deal with and tough for them to deal with. The last two years, we've played these guys we've had close games."
Close then and close now, but after tonight, far apart.



* Last meeting: Utah won 20-7, Oct. 5, 2006
* About the Utes: The Utes are on a three-game winning streak. Utah hasn't won four in a row since 2004 . . . The Utes are 4-0 when Darrell Mack rushes for 100-plus yards . . . Louie Sakoda leads the MWC in punting, averaging 44.2 yards per kick. Derrek Richards leads the conference in punt-return average with 16.6 yards . . . Quarterback Brian Johnson hasn't played in enough games to be included in the MWC season stats. If he did have enough, his pass efficiency rating of 141.27 would rank him second.
* About the Horned Frogs: The Frogs defeated Stanford 38-36 Saturday, improving their record to 10-2 against BCS schools . . . Since returning from injury four games ago, Aaron Brown is averaging 89.3 yards rushing . . . Quarterback Andy Dalton's completion percentage of 62.4 is on pace to break the school's single-season mark of 61.9 set last year by Jeff Ballard . . . The Frogs are 4-0 when rushing for at least 142 yards this season.
* Home-field advantage: The series is tied 1-1 in Fort Worth. TCU is 37-5 in home games at Amon G. Carter Stadium and its 23-4 home record since 2003 ranks 12th-best in the nation.
Brian Johnson: The senior QB didn't have a good game against the Frogs in 2005, going 15 of 30 for 208 yards, and he'll have to do better tonight if the Utes are to win. He'll be tested by a defense that has allowed just seven touchdown passes and has 12 interceptions - both league-leading statistics.
Key for TCU
Passing interest: The Frogs are good when their passing game is on, but they're even better when the ground game gets going. They need to get Aaron Brown going early, especially since the Utes are hard to beat when they turn teams into one-dimensional offensive threats.
Key matchup for U on offense
Bradon Godfrey: Has led the Utes in the last two games with six catches for 78 yards against Louisville and five for 59 yards against San Diego State. He needs to break loose tonight to help Johnson find weaknesses in TCU's pass defense.
Key matchup for U on defense
Big man: Since returning to the lineup from a knee injury, senior Gabe Long has been the driving force behind Utah's run defense. He has led Utah's linemen in tackles the last two games with four against Louisville and five against San Diego State.

The Frogs are 38-0 under coach Gary Patterson when holding opponents to 17 points or less.
 
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