value????or sucker????????

[west coast guru]

Not sure if there is ever value, but I am going to take a shot with this one. I played the JETS to win the AFC Championship and put 500 on it. The odds are 1215 for every hundred. I know this may sound bad, but let me explain. The jets defense is playing as well as anyone in the NFL. I have made a killing playing them and the under as they will play a conservative game with a lead. Now here is the telling stat that I love with the Jets. They have shut out six opponents in the 2nd half. That is tough to do no matter who you play. They have been a cash cow betting them and the under in the second half in the right spot. We will see how good they are when they play at pitt this week. Maybe this is an overreaction on my part, but if they beat beat these odds will drop. Call me a sucker, but I love the fact the defense has shut 6 teams out in the 2nd half. This tells me great coaching is going on. When they make the playoffs I will bet them for 500 a game to cover this bet if it loses. Good luck and go JETSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

 

[TheCooler]

waste of money. ne will destroy them. so will indy.

 

[gman2]

only league where there are no 'value' plays to win it all is the nba. thats a superstar league where history says you need at least one star to win it all.

theres definitely value in that play for a couple of reasons:

1) manning and the colts have zero defense, so theyre just as likely to lose in the first round as they are to advance to the super bowl

2) jets can run the ball, which is paramount in january

3) if they do have to go through new england, the jets will be facing a division foe that they will have seen twice and already played tough against.

dont think its a bad play at all. there is no sure thing in the nfl, not even philadelphia right now

 

[GM]

There is ~some~ value in it, but if the Jets don't win the division they're in a rough spot to get through. The best they can be is the #5 seed in the conference if they don't win the division, which means they won't get a home game.

First game they'd probably play either @ Indy or @ SD. Indy has no D...I could definitely see the Jets pulling the upset there. And SD has no playoff experience...so again it's possible...but it's also a cross-continent road game...not a great situation.

If they get past that game, then they likely have to beat Pitt and NE in back to back weeks, in one order or the other. Maybe they get lucky and one of them gets knocked out earlier. The bye teams have a huge edge in the 2nd round...win about 75% of the time...so this is where it's really tough for them.

Tough to win 3 road games in a row (which is what the Jets will have to do in all likelihood), but at 12:1 I might give it a shot for small $$.