Value Qualifying Plays for New Hampshire

[Myron]

Both at WSEX:

Elliot Even vs. Newman. Elliot qualified on the pole earlier this year while Newman started 7th. In fact on similar tracks (about 1 mile in circumfrence) this year Elliot has outqualified Newman in all but 1. The line opened with Elliot -125 and I'm not sure why the public is all over Newman but I'll bite. 2 units on Elliot

Nadeau +130 over Blaney. So Blaney had a decent qualifying run last week but Nadeau is traditionally a better qualifier. Again on similar tracks Nadeau outqualified Blaney every time. +130 seems like a gift as I thought the line would go the other way. 2 units on Nadeau

Good Luck.

 

[sandwedge]

blaney is probably getting the action due to several things, his nice last race start, he qualified higher than nadeau in the july race at this track, plus nadeau was in the #10/#25 cars on the other mile tracks where he outqualified blaney this year, he is now in the #44 which has not qualified quite as well (nadeau was 15th in the #44 car in the july louden race, blaney 5th)

blaney (with the exception of last weeks race as myron noted) however has not been tearing it up either in qualifying since the july race with qual positions of 21,33,20,36,37.

good luck

 

[Myron]

You're right Sandwedge about Nadeau. As I said these are "value plays" i.e. odds where I feel the big odds warrant a play.

FWIW, I don't think the Jasper car is superior to the Petty Enterprises car. In fact Kyle Petty has had one of his best year's ever qualifying in the Sprint Car. I expect a top 20 start for Nadeau which IMO, will be good enough to beat Blaney. Mind you I much prefer the Elliot play.

 

[sandwedge]

good luck on your plays myron. i agree that blaney does not warrant huge favortism on that matchup, was just speculating on why the public likes the #77

i'm liking your elliot play as even though newman is usually pretty strong in qualifying, elliot has qualified in the top 5 in 10 of the last 13 races(!) plus as you mentioned has been better at the mile tracks than newman.

 

[Myron]

Not to mention the fact he won the pole in the first New Hampshire race and was over a second faster than Newman.

 

[1837]

I'll be following you Myron but i,ve got Elliot +115 over newman at Gameday!

 

[sandwedge]

(nadeau was 15th in the #44 car in the july louden race, blaney 5th)

i made an error here, nadeau was in the #10 car for the first race at louden this year.

 

[djv]

Now that the 12 has the pole. I say the pressure is on and he does not finish in top 5. I hope so because im goning that way.
GL

 

[djv]

Oh well I'll never know now with the rain. Good for him first win. Dam what a points race.