Valuist, Ferdville,Dogfish

[Morris]

I included you guys together to answer a question the I can't seem to get a answer. Saratoga is a major track and they have 100,000 dollar claimers here,although nobody ever claims, I'm wondering where they crossover is in regards to allowance races? I see many claimers in the 50 to 60 range and wonder where class crosses over to make them equal? To make it easier ( I hope), Is a 50 claimer competive with an allowance horse running for a $40,000 purse?



Bob

 

[ferdville]

That is a very good question. Many people make huge mistakes in evaluating class in this manner. There are two things you need to look at - the purse and the conditions. The purse is easy to find. Basically, a race with a 50 k purse will have better horses than a race with a lesser purse. But conditions throw a monkey wrench in, too. Some might be races for non-winners of "blahm blah, blah, blah" for some period of days. So, if a class horse is coming of a layoff, he'll fit the conditions. Here you could find a handicap horse running against an allowance horse or lower. Many races are also written for "non winners of 2 whatever in the last whatever days." Same things happen here. Layoff horse of higher class are eligible. And if they are allowance races, there is no worry of a claim. In addition, a race in which most of the horses have multiple wins will usually grade out stronger than a race restricted to horses with one or two wins. The simplest method is to gauge a race by purse. But that is only part of the story. In Southern California, races for claimers at or above 50k are very often stronger than allowance races - especially an allowance race for non-winners of two. Hope this helps answer your question - can go into more detail if needed. Most any book that discusses the assessment of class will probably explain this better than I did.

 

[Dogfish]

well said ferd,the best book i ever read on this was handicappers condition book by james quinn,wish i didn't give it away.may need to read it again! seems in calf. every alw. race has some condition or restriction on it.gets very confusing.at s.a i go by these may not be perfect but believe its close.
alw.nw1x=32clm
alw.nw2x=40clm
alw.nw3x=50clm
alw.not resricted to wins=clm62.5 and up
there are very few claiming races at over 62.5 at s.a
so i guess what im trying to say is at most tracks i think that top level claimers may be about equal to alw.and restricted stakes company.this is over simplifing things but you got to start somewere.then throw in the state-bred,age restricted,fillies and mares,optional clm.,dist. and earning conditions and try to sort things out.not very good at getting thoughts to type so i'll quit now.good to see some more posters in this forum drop in more often bob.

 

[Morris]

Thanks Guys,

I do play the ponies quite a bit and like everything else you have to put the time in. I like to see the condition book that has a race for nonwinners of 2. Alot of time the race will have a horse or 2 that have already got one win racing against horses without that win.( not counting maiden wins) I always give the edge to those horses and have cashed some nice tickets. Don't you just love State Bred maiden filly 2 yr. olds.:com: Worst races in the world and we get alot of them here. I do get some info in Aug. cause of contacts with trainers and jocks. My father had horses and my sister sold a filly in training recently. Hope I can get a good one for you guys this summer.

Bob

 

[Valuist]

The speed figures will give you a good idea of how a circuits allowance horses match up with various claiming levels. In Chicago, I've seen plenty of sharp $5000 claimers move into bottom level Illinois-bred allowance races and win. For open company at the Chicago tracks, a 14-16,000 open claimer would be competitive in a NW1X allw, and a 20-25000 open claimer could compete in a NW2X. After all, many 20,000 and $30,000 horses have already raced thru their allowance conditions. In New York, Southern Cal and Kentucky, the conditioned allowance and Maiden fields are stronger so a $14,000 claimer may not be able to win a NW1X race at those circuits.

I've also noticed that at the end of the year, the conditioned allowance races get very weak. In November of 1995, myself and a friend claimed a horse out of a $7500 NW3 race in which it ran 2nd. We ran it back for $7500 and it won by 15. According to my speed figures, I knew we'd be competitve in a NW1X allowance. The horse went off at 20-1 and led every step until the last jump, losing by a nose. This was in a December NW1X race in which many of the good stables had left for Florida or Louisiana. That same horse would've had trouble competing in a mid summer NW1X at Arlington.