Last Year:
The Rob Johnson debaucle was finally over as the Buffalo Bills acquired a real quarterback in Drew Bledsoe. The Bills wanted to turn over a new leaf and head into a new direction which is exactly with the help of Drew Bledsoe. He quickly revived an offense that was dormant for years, and had now made Buffalo into one of the most prolific offenses in the league. Travis Henry emerged as a premiere running back carrying the ball for a 5th best 1438 yards last year. Even with Eric Moulds and Peerless Price both surpassing the 1000 yard receiving barrier, the Bills still could not overcome their defensive inadequacies. With some nice defensive additions on the way, the city of Buffalo is mumbling the words playoffs once again.
What we Learned from Last Year?:
With the arrival of Drew Bledsoe into Buffalo, the Bills were finally able to tailor an offense that allowed the team to exploit its weapons. This is something new to this team because in years past they were forced to limit their offense only to what Rob Johnson could do. Now with Drew, the opportunities were limitless. Long downfield passes, short screen passes, inside slants, play-action passes, you name it. Their offensive coordinator felt like a brand new 21-year-old in an adult movie store for the first time. The Bills had everything going in their passing game. Not only that, the Bills also dug up something that they hadn't had since the days of Thurman Thomas. A decent running game. I know when I say a 'decent running game' I confuse many Chicago Bears' fans, but what it means is basically getting productivity from the running back (and averaging more than 84 yards per game). The Bills got that in the form of Travis Henry. The committe was fired, and Henry was hired as the #1 guy. Although some fumbling problems got him into trouble with coaches, he was still one of the best running backs in the league last year. All in all, the offense screwed its head on straight.
On the flipside, the Bills defense let them down like Hyundai. Time, and time again the Bills defense was their achilles heal as they just couldn't keep teams from scoring. What is interesting to note is that their secondary actually did quite a good job ranking 6th in the league only allowing roughly 192 yards per game. What isn't interesting to note is that their run defense was absolutely porous ranking 29th in the league. Everyone ran on them. Houston, a team that average 84 yards rushing per game burned them for 141. This was one of the biggest concerns on this team and they addressed it in the offseason.
What has Changed?:
Needing desperate help to stop the run, the Bills added a couple of major players in Sam Adams, and Takeo Spikes. The front office of Buffalo looked pretty smart when they did this, and even more so when they ended up with a first-round draft pick for Peerless Price. Although those moves were fairly genius, here's one I don't understand. So Travis Henry has fumbling problems last year, and the organization/coaching staff wanted to bring in somebody who will push him to play harder, and try to get him to focus more. Fine, they bring in Orlandis Gary from Denver. But then with the draft pick that they get from Atlanta they draft a running back project? First of all for a team that looks so close to being a contender this year, instead of getting somebody who can possibly help them out this year, they draft someone who might help them out down the road. Now I understand he has a lot of potential, but what kind of message does this send to Travis Henry and his security/future with the team? What kind of message does it send to the team that you are not interested in helping them win this year, but you are rather interested in helping out their future? What effect will it have on the team by drafting somebody who won't play most of this year opposed to getting somebody that might make an immediate impact this year? I think it might hurt the team's morale a bit.
Next we can talk about the loss of Peerless Price. The Bills made one of the dumbest moves in the offseason this year, but it wasn't letting go of Peerless Price. Although Price playerd pretty well for this team last year, Josh Reed is an up and comer and should be able to do a good job of replacing Peerless. Price reaped the benefits of always lining up against opposing teams second best DB and generally faced less attention than his counterpart Eric Moulds. Nonetheless, he was a good fit for the system, and they might miss him. The bonehead move made by this team is to change their offense from a pass-happy offense to a ball-control offense. I can tell you right now that the Buffalo Bills will not be a successful team by trying to control the clock. That's not what Bledsoe is about, Travis Henry can't handle that, and their defense isn't built for that either. Starting with Bledsoe, it's important to note that he struggles when the team doesn't pass the ball a lot. When they try to run the ball more than pass, and just ask him to make 3rd down completions, he doesn't excell. When the Bills were ahead by 1 - 16 points last year Bledsoe's completion percentage was only 53%. When they were behind by 1 - 16 points last year his completion percentage was 65%. Bledsoe needs to consistently pass the ball to stay successful. Any running game seems to throw him out of the flow of the game. Travis Henry was a very productive running back last year yadage wise, but he has problems holding on to the football. Keep in mind that running the ball was a secondary option for Buffalo last year therefore Henry benefitted from all the passes that this team was doing. A successful passing game allowed the attention not to be focused on the running game, and therefore he had an easier time of things. With all the space that was created for him, Travis still managed to fumble the ball 11 times last year. That's almost 1 fumble for every touchdown he had last year. Now this year, he is going to be asked to play an even bigger role. They want him to carry the ball for tougher yards, in bigger crowds, so how do you think he'll respond? He better kick his fumbling habbit right now or their going to kick him off the team. Last but not least this defense is not built for close ball control games. Although the secondary looked good statistically, don't forget teams didn't even bother passing the ball against Buffalo when they could just run the ball for free yards at any point in the game. Even with Takeo Spikes, and Sam Adams, this defense won't look very good unless the Bills can put up the same ammount of points that they did last year.
The reason the Bills are changing their offensive scheme is because they don't believe Josh Reed can fill in for Peerless Price. Unfortunately though they'll realize that this offensive scheme won't be much better. Josh Reed played well with the time he was given last year, so why not give him a chance to help the offense succeed? The Bills are trying to change the offense so that they can disguise their "weakness" opposite of Eric Moulds. What they don't realize is that their minor change with have a major impact on the success of this team.
O/U 8.5:
The AFC East this year may be one of the toughest division in football. The Jets were a playoff team last year, the Patriots have made changes to try to mold themselves into a playoff team, and the Dolphins look like gold once again (mind you they always do at the beginning of the season). Nonetheless, the Bills do not get any 'gimme' games in their division. Belitchek has Bledsoe's number, and as long as the Jets have Martin, and the Dolphins have Williams the Bills will have a tough time winning any games. Winning more than a single game in their division is not a guarantee. We'll say they end up with 2. That leaves them needing 7 more against: @Jaguars, Eagles, Bengals, Redskins, @Chiefs, @Cowboys, Texans, Colts, @Giants, @Titans. Just keep in mind that even though the schedule looks a bit easy, that this team will not be as strong offensively as it was last year.
Fantasy Sleeper:
Although numerous scenarios can play out for this team, here is two of the more likely:
Scenario 1:
The Bills get off to a slow start, and they have trouble scoring points. They go back to what brought them success last year, and they pass the ball night and day. In that case take a look at Josh Reed. He has a nose for getting open and he'll get many oppotunites playing next to Eric Moulds. The guy had 500 receiving yards and he only started 2 games last year. He could be ready to emerge.
Scenario 2:
The stubborn Bills are not as hot offensively as they were last year, but they continue to try to win close games and control the clock. Butterfingers Henry continues having trouble holding onto the ball, and with fewer lanes for him to run through this year, he becomes ineffective. In comes former 1000+ rusher Orlandis Gary. Although he is not guarantee himself, and he won't be starting until mid-season in this scenario, you might be able to steal a potential #1 running back. This team wants to focus on running the ball this year so having their running on your fantasy shouldn't hurt too much.
The Rob Johnson debaucle was finally over as the Buffalo Bills acquired a real quarterback in Drew Bledsoe. The Bills wanted to turn over a new leaf and head into a new direction which is exactly with the help of Drew Bledsoe. He quickly revived an offense that was dormant for years, and had now made Buffalo into one of the most prolific offenses in the league. Travis Henry emerged as a premiere running back carrying the ball for a 5th best 1438 yards last year. Even with Eric Moulds and Peerless Price both surpassing the 1000 yard receiving barrier, the Bills still could not overcome their defensive inadequacies. With some nice defensive additions on the way, the city of Buffalo is mumbling the words playoffs once again.
What we Learned from Last Year?:
With the arrival of Drew Bledsoe into Buffalo, the Bills were finally able to tailor an offense that allowed the team to exploit its weapons. This is something new to this team because in years past they were forced to limit their offense only to what Rob Johnson could do. Now with Drew, the opportunities were limitless. Long downfield passes, short screen passes, inside slants, play-action passes, you name it. Their offensive coordinator felt like a brand new 21-year-old in an adult movie store for the first time. The Bills had everything going in their passing game. Not only that, the Bills also dug up something that they hadn't had since the days of Thurman Thomas. A decent running game. I know when I say a 'decent running game' I confuse many Chicago Bears' fans, but what it means is basically getting productivity from the running back (and averaging more than 84 yards per game). The Bills got that in the form of Travis Henry. The committe was fired, and Henry was hired as the #1 guy. Although some fumbling problems got him into trouble with coaches, he was still one of the best running backs in the league last year. All in all, the offense screwed its head on straight.
On the flipside, the Bills defense let them down like Hyundai. Time, and time again the Bills defense was their achilles heal as they just couldn't keep teams from scoring. What is interesting to note is that their secondary actually did quite a good job ranking 6th in the league only allowing roughly 192 yards per game. What isn't interesting to note is that their run defense was absolutely porous ranking 29th in the league. Everyone ran on them. Houston, a team that average 84 yards rushing per game burned them for 141. This was one of the biggest concerns on this team and they addressed it in the offseason.
What has Changed?:
Needing desperate help to stop the run, the Bills added a couple of major players in Sam Adams, and Takeo Spikes. The front office of Buffalo looked pretty smart when they did this, and even more so when they ended up with a first-round draft pick for Peerless Price. Although those moves were fairly genius, here's one I don't understand. So Travis Henry has fumbling problems last year, and the organization/coaching staff wanted to bring in somebody who will push him to play harder, and try to get him to focus more. Fine, they bring in Orlandis Gary from Denver. But then with the draft pick that they get from Atlanta they draft a running back project? First of all for a team that looks so close to being a contender this year, instead of getting somebody who can possibly help them out this year, they draft someone who might help them out down the road. Now I understand he has a lot of potential, but what kind of message does this send to Travis Henry and his security/future with the team? What kind of message does it send to the team that you are not interested in helping them win this year, but you are rather interested in helping out their future? What effect will it have on the team by drafting somebody who won't play most of this year opposed to getting somebody that might make an immediate impact this year? I think it might hurt the team's morale a bit.
Next we can talk about the loss of Peerless Price. The Bills made one of the dumbest moves in the offseason this year, but it wasn't letting go of Peerless Price. Although Price playerd pretty well for this team last year, Josh Reed is an up and comer and should be able to do a good job of replacing Peerless. Price reaped the benefits of always lining up against opposing teams second best DB and generally faced less attention than his counterpart Eric Moulds. Nonetheless, he was a good fit for the system, and they might miss him. The bonehead move made by this team is to change their offense from a pass-happy offense to a ball-control offense. I can tell you right now that the Buffalo Bills will not be a successful team by trying to control the clock. That's not what Bledsoe is about, Travis Henry can't handle that, and their defense isn't built for that either. Starting with Bledsoe, it's important to note that he struggles when the team doesn't pass the ball a lot. When they try to run the ball more than pass, and just ask him to make 3rd down completions, he doesn't excell. When the Bills were ahead by 1 - 16 points last year Bledsoe's completion percentage was only 53%. When they were behind by 1 - 16 points last year his completion percentage was 65%. Bledsoe needs to consistently pass the ball to stay successful. Any running game seems to throw him out of the flow of the game. Travis Henry was a very productive running back last year yadage wise, but he has problems holding on to the football. Keep in mind that running the ball was a secondary option for Buffalo last year therefore Henry benefitted from all the passes that this team was doing. A successful passing game allowed the attention not to be focused on the running game, and therefore he had an easier time of things. With all the space that was created for him, Travis still managed to fumble the ball 11 times last year. That's almost 1 fumble for every touchdown he had last year. Now this year, he is going to be asked to play an even bigger role. They want him to carry the ball for tougher yards, in bigger crowds, so how do you think he'll respond? He better kick his fumbling habbit right now or their going to kick him off the team. Last but not least this defense is not built for close ball control games. Although the secondary looked good statistically, don't forget teams didn't even bother passing the ball against Buffalo when they could just run the ball for free yards at any point in the game. Even with Takeo Spikes, and Sam Adams, this defense won't look very good unless the Bills can put up the same ammount of points that they did last year.
The reason the Bills are changing their offensive scheme is because they don't believe Josh Reed can fill in for Peerless Price. Unfortunately though they'll realize that this offensive scheme won't be much better. Josh Reed played well with the time he was given last year, so why not give him a chance to help the offense succeed? The Bills are trying to change the offense so that they can disguise their "weakness" opposite of Eric Moulds. What they don't realize is that their minor change with have a major impact on the success of this team.
O/U 8.5:
The AFC East this year may be one of the toughest division in football. The Jets were a playoff team last year, the Patriots have made changes to try to mold themselves into a playoff team, and the Dolphins look like gold once again (mind you they always do at the beginning of the season). Nonetheless, the Bills do not get any 'gimme' games in their division. Belitchek has Bledsoe's number, and as long as the Jets have Martin, and the Dolphins have Williams the Bills will have a tough time winning any games. Winning more than a single game in their division is not a guarantee. We'll say they end up with 2. That leaves them needing 7 more against: @Jaguars, Eagles, Bengals, Redskins, @Chiefs, @Cowboys, Texans, Colts, @Giants, @Titans. Just keep in mind that even though the schedule looks a bit easy, that this team will not be as strong offensively as it was last year.
Fantasy Sleeper:
Although numerous scenarios can play out for this team, here is two of the more likely:
Scenario 1:
The Bills get off to a slow start, and they have trouble scoring points. They go back to what brought them success last year, and they pass the ball night and day. In that case take a look at Josh Reed. He has a nose for getting open and he'll get many oppotunites playing next to Eric Moulds. The guy had 500 receiving yards and he only started 2 games last year. He could be ready to emerge.
Scenario 2:
The stubborn Bills are not as hot offensively as they were last year, but they continue to try to win close games and control the clock. Butterfingers Henry continues having trouble holding onto the ball, and with fewer lanes for him to run through this year, he becomes ineffective. In comes former 1000+ rusher Orlandis Gary. Although he is not guarantee himself, and he won't be starting until mid-season in this scenario, you might be able to steal a potential #1 running back. This team wants to focus on running the ball this year so having their running on your fantasy shouldn't hurt too much.
