Last Year:
In a season where critics decided that this would be the year that Brett Favre fell off, Favre only threw for over 3500+ yards and 27 TD?s leading Green Bay to yet another playoff appearance. If you subtract the traditional yearly loss in Minnesota and a week 17 loss to the New York Jets when the Packers weren?t really trying, Favre helped this team to a pretty impressive season. Unfortunately the only loss suffered at home all of last year by the Packers was their most critical. Their 27 ? 7 spanking at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons put a taint on everything the Packers accomplished last year, and left their faithful fans questioning whether this team has enough to capture sweet Lombardi.
What we learned from Last Year:
The Packers are a fairly easy team to read. Let me break it down for you. When Green Bay plays at home, they can beat any team in the league. Their Achilles heal is playing anywhere on the road. With Brett Favre as the skipper of the offense the Packers can put up points on virtually any defense. The problems the Packers have are on the other side of the ball. When the Packers play at home they feed off of the crowd, the cold weather and the history of Lambeau field. Like most teams, the home field advantage allows them to overachieve. That is how they were last year. The question is, did Atlanta lay out a game plan for how to shutdown the Packers at home? Let?s make no bones about it, if you look at that 27 ? 7 score in the only playoff game the Pack played in last year the question we are asking is not why did Atlanta score 27 points? The question that is first off my lips is how come did Green Bay only scored 7 points? Atlanta?s defense was pretty good last year, but that is still no reason for such a poor performance by Green Bay. We saw what the Patriots did to their opponents in their Super Bowl year, is Green Bay this year?s St. Louis Rams? It is not important what WE learned from last year about this team but what is really important is what did Green Bay?s opponents learn from the Atlanta game.
Although none of us can really say that the Packers really struggled in the second half of last year, but it?s pretty safe to say that Brett Favre really dropped off in the second half. Favre threw 12 of his 17 interceptions last year in the last 7 games of the year only throwing 10 touchdowns in that span. His completion percentage was only 57.7 and his QB rating was 67.8. This is compared to a 101 QB rating, and a 66% completion percentage in his first 9 games. What was the difference? It was at about this time that the O-line lost starting tackle Chad Clifton to injury, and this group?s depth was already tested earlier when the other starting tackle Mark Tauscher was lost to injury as well. When you look at the stats, Favre wasn?t sacked much more than he normally would be, but he did face a lot of pressure. One of the reasons Brett has stayed healthy for so long is that he gets rid of the ball so quickly to avoid sacks for losses. That would explain why his completion percentage dropped off in the second half of last year. Keep in mind that Brett Favre is the Packers. This team is absolutely nothing without him. If this team has problems on the offensive line or for whatever reason they cannot protect Favre long enough for him to make his decisions then this team will really struggle.
What has changed?:
Although this team has a very similar look and feel to last year?s version, it is difficult to say what kind of results to expect. Let?s start with the offense.
Terry Glenn is out. Not really surprising as this guy is running out of chances in the league, but the move shouldn?t have much of an impact on the Packers. The receiving corps already has emerging star Donald Driver and has Robert Ferguson and Javon Walker just waiting to burst onto the scene. Glenn will be forgotten like yesterday?s garbage. The questions remain on the offensive line. This group has been fairly quiet in year?s past doing one of the best jobs in the league protecting Brett Favre. They have a couple of penciled in starters that need to recover well from injury. On top of that, this line is not getting any younger. Marcus Spriggs might not look like much of a move right now, but he adds needed depth to a fairly thing line behind its starters. I was surprised that they didn?t draft anyone before the sixth round just in case somebody were to get injured. These concerns are not major yet. For Green Bay fans they should hope they stay that way.
As for the defense, it was never anything to write home about to begin with, but it doesn?t look like it will make any improvements from last year. It ranked 12th defensively last year, but this year it will have to deal without Vonnie Holliday, Nate Wayne, Tyrone Williams, and Todd McBride. The Packers will try to use Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila in a bigger role to fill in for Vonnie Holliday. The problem is that the Packers have tried to use him more than just a pass-rushing specialist last year and it proved to be ineffective. He didn?t do so well as an every down player. That might be a hole that they won?t fill this year. And Nate Wayne, one of Green Bay?s leading tacklers last year, will be replaced by first round pick Nick Barnett. The line backing corps just doesn?t look as strong as it did last year. Although this team acquired Al Harris, but he has never really shown to be a solid number two cornerback. He?s a pretty good third cornerback but he?s going to have to get used to playing in a weaker secondary than the pro-bowl one in Philly.
All in all, with no real major changes to this team, if the offensive line plays well, then this team will play well.
O/U 9.5:
As long as Brett Favre is healthy and starting, Green Bay will be able to contend with any team on a given Sunday. They shouldn?t face much trouble with Chicago, they?ll lose their annual loss in the Metrodome, and they should get at least a split with the improving Lions. That means the Packers need about another 6 wins against: @Cardinals, Seahawks, Chiefs, @Rams, Eagles, @Bucs, 49ers, @Chargers, @Raiders, Broncos. If the Pack can win all of its home games, which is a definite possibility, then 10 games are not out of the question.
Fantasy Sleeper:
With Terry Glenn out of the picture, and Donald Driver as Brett?s new favorite target, one of the young receiver is going to have to step up for this team. Brett loves to throw the ball as it is, but coach Mike Sherman has talked about going downfield more often this year than any other year to exploit his team?s speed as much as possible. Robert Ferguson has looked good, but I would rather take a shot with Javon Walker as a sleeper. He just has better ability than Ferguson, and as long as he can continue to use it, then he could be a big surprise this year.
In a season where critics decided that this would be the year that Brett Favre fell off, Favre only threw for over 3500+ yards and 27 TD?s leading Green Bay to yet another playoff appearance. If you subtract the traditional yearly loss in Minnesota and a week 17 loss to the New York Jets when the Packers weren?t really trying, Favre helped this team to a pretty impressive season. Unfortunately the only loss suffered at home all of last year by the Packers was their most critical. Their 27 ? 7 spanking at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons put a taint on everything the Packers accomplished last year, and left their faithful fans questioning whether this team has enough to capture sweet Lombardi.
What we learned from Last Year:
The Packers are a fairly easy team to read. Let me break it down for you. When Green Bay plays at home, they can beat any team in the league. Their Achilles heal is playing anywhere on the road. With Brett Favre as the skipper of the offense the Packers can put up points on virtually any defense. The problems the Packers have are on the other side of the ball. When the Packers play at home they feed off of the crowd, the cold weather and the history of Lambeau field. Like most teams, the home field advantage allows them to overachieve. That is how they were last year. The question is, did Atlanta lay out a game plan for how to shutdown the Packers at home? Let?s make no bones about it, if you look at that 27 ? 7 score in the only playoff game the Pack played in last year the question we are asking is not why did Atlanta score 27 points? The question that is first off my lips is how come did Green Bay only scored 7 points? Atlanta?s defense was pretty good last year, but that is still no reason for such a poor performance by Green Bay. We saw what the Patriots did to their opponents in their Super Bowl year, is Green Bay this year?s St. Louis Rams? It is not important what WE learned from last year about this team but what is really important is what did Green Bay?s opponents learn from the Atlanta game.
Although none of us can really say that the Packers really struggled in the second half of last year, but it?s pretty safe to say that Brett Favre really dropped off in the second half. Favre threw 12 of his 17 interceptions last year in the last 7 games of the year only throwing 10 touchdowns in that span. His completion percentage was only 57.7 and his QB rating was 67.8. This is compared to a 101 QB rating, and a 66% completion percentage in his first 9 games. What was the difference? It was at about this time that the O-line lost starting tackle Chad Clifton to injury, and this group?s depth was already tested earlier when the other starting tackle Mark Tauscher was lost to injury as well. When you look at the stats, Favre wasn?t sacked much more than he normally would be, but he did face a lot of pressure. One of the reasons Brett has stayed healthy for so long is that he gets rid of the ball so quickly to avoid sacks for losses. That would explain why his completion percentage dropped off in the second half of last year. Keep in mind that Brett Favre is the Packers. This team is absolutely nothing without him. If this team has problems on the offensive line or for whatever reason they cannot protect Favre long enough for him to make his decisions then this team will really struggle.
What has changed?:
Although this team has a very similar look and feel to last year?s version, it is difficult to say what kind of results to expect. Let?s start with the offense.
Terry Glenn is out. Not really surprising as this guy is running out of chances in the league, but the move shouldn?t have much of an impact on the Packers. The receiving corps already has emerging star Donald Driver and has Robert Ferguson and Javon Walker just waiting to burst onto the scene. Glenn will be forgotten like yesterday?s garbage. The questions remain on the offensive line. This group has been fairly quiet in year?s past doing one of the best jobs in the league protecting Brett Favre. They have a couple of penciled in starters that need to recover well from injury. On top of that, this line is not getting any younger. Marcus Spriggs might not look like much of a move right now, but he adds needed depth to a fairly thing line behind its starters. I was surprised that they didn?t draft anyone before the sixth round just in case somebody were to get injured. These concerns are not major yet. For Green Bay fans they should hope they stay that way.
As for the defense, it was never anything to write home about to begin with, but it doesn?t look like it will make any improvements from last year. It ranked 12th defensively last year, but this year it will have to deal without Vonnie Holliday, Nate Wayne, Tyrone Williams, and Todd McBride. The Packers will try to use Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila in a bigger role to fill in for Vonnie Holliday. The problem is that the Packers have tried to use him more than just a pass-rushing specialist last year and it proved to be ineffective. He didn?t do so well as an every down player. That might be a hole that they won?t fill this year. And Nate Wayne, one of Green Bay?s leading tacklers last year, will be replaced by first round pick Nick Barnett. The line backing corps just doesn?t look as strong as it did last year. Although this team acquired Al Harris, but he has never really shown to be a solid number two cornerback. He?s a pretty good third cornerback but he?s going to have to get used to playing in a weaker secondary than the pro-bowl one in Philly.
All in all, with no real major changes to this team, if the offensive line plays well, then this team will play well.
O/U 9.5:
As long as Brett Favre is healthy and starting, Green Bay will be able to contend with any team on a given Sunday. They shouldn?t face much trouble with Chicago, they?ll lose their annual loss in the Metrodome, and they should get at least a split with the improving Lions. That means the Packers need about another 6 wins against: @Cardinals, Seahawks, Chiefs, @Rams, Eagles, @Bucs, 49ers, @Chargers, @Raiders, Broncos. If the Pack can win all of its home games, which is a definite possibility, then 10 games are not out of the question.
Fantasy Sleeper:
With Terry Glenn out of the picture, and Donald Driver as Brett?s new favorite target, one of the young receiver is going to have to step up for this team. Brett loves to throw the ball as it is, but coach Mike Sherman has talked about going downfield more often this year than any other year to exploit his team?s speed as much as possible. Robert Ferguson has looked good, but I would rather take a shot with Javon Walker as a sleeper. He just has better ability than Ferguson, and as long as he can continue to use it, then he could be a big surprise this year.
