Last Year:
Since the arrival of Peyton Manning, and Edgerrin James the Indianapolis Colts have been so close to success, but have not been able to get over the hump. Discontent with consistently falling short, the Colts fired head coach Jim Mora and brought in The King of successful unsuccessfulness Tony Dungy. Similar to Tampa Bay, Tony Dungy went to work quickly and turned the Colts around and brought them back to their playoff form with a 10 ? 6 season. Are the Colts to expect their talented offense re-attain its stride with a consistently improving defense? Or will the Colts continue to miss that ultimate ?oomph? that Dungy?s teams are always lacking? One thing is for sure, expect a positive season with disappointing playoff results.
What we learned from Last Year:
It comes as no surprise that the defense has made improvements because Tony Dungy was brought in for that reason specifically. Has the team sacrificed anything now that he is the coach? Yes. Tony Dungy was hired with the idea that he was there to fix the defense, and Tom Moore (offensive coordinator) would handle the offense. The Colts have been inconsistent since their 13 ? 3 season a few years back, but one thing that I noticed from this team last year was a lack of a killer instinct. An absence of the ability to crush their poor opponents and put teams away once they were in control. Some how, some way, Tony Dungy has helped turn this once-prolific offense into just a ?good? offense. Two years ago they were 2nd best in the league, last year they dropped to ninth. Now some of you might argue that one of the reasons for the drop was due Edgerrin James not being fully healthy last year, but that argument does not hold any water because two years ago he was virtually unavailable are year long. Their blowouts last year came against Houston twice, Dallas, and a (fluky) blowout in Philadelphia. Besides that, on a very easy schedule their margin of victory was only 4.5 points. Besides the one game against Philly, I never really felt that the Colts offense was a ferocious threat like it used to be. Dungy is the master of conservative play, so I would point the finger to him for the decline of the offense. Maybe his conservative environment has trickled down to the offense.
Besides his first year head coaching, Dungy has coached his teams to an average of a 10 ? 6 record (roughly). Traditionally his teams have shown nothing in the playoffs. I expect the same thing again from this team. The Minnesota Timberwolves would be a great fit for Tony because they have great regular seasons every year as well and exit in the first round of playoffs. Similar to the T-Wolves, the Colts do very well against poor teams and not nearly as well against good teams. The Colts had a record of 3 ? 5 against teams that were above .500 last year proving once again that this team is a pretender. On paper this looked like a match made in heaven, a great offense with a defensive wizard as the coach but this team has a lot more work to do before the paper becomes a reality.
What has changed?:
This team is an image of their coach. And what he depicts is conservativeness, and status quo. The team has not changed a whole heck of a lot personnel wise in the off-season, but they are hoping that the young defense will continue to improve. For the second year in a row the Colts spent most of their draft picks on the defensive side of the ball, which was a smart move. Second-round pick Michael Doss is not a big name yet but he is an explosive tackler with pretty good cover skills. He was the best player on NCAA Champion Ohio-State?s defense, so you figure he will bring some intangibles to the table. Losing middle linebacker Mike Peterson to division rival Jacksonville was a mistake, especially since this team needs help at that specific position. Dwight Freeney and Chad Bratzke led a surprising pass rush last year, and will do the same again this year. Josh Williams is an athletic defensive tackle who is supposedly a good fit for Tony Dungy?s defense. He missed out last season due to foot injuries but his contributions will be welcomed this year. Don?t worry about all the ?no-names? on this defense; Tony Dungy has made a career of helping these guys overachieve.
On offense Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes look to return from knee injuries. The running game should take some pressure off of Peyton Manning who at times last year forced more than a few passes. With these guys back on the roster it will help out Manning?s decision making. The receiving corps is still awaiting the return of Qadry Ismail who is returning from an injury, but if Reggie Wayne continues his improvement, Qadry might become an afterthought.
Although this may have a tough proposition to accomplish, I think it would have been smarter to hire Tony Dungy as the defensive coordinator and promote Tom Moore to head coach. I?m not sure of the exact food chain of these coaches but Dungy is interfering with the offense somewhere along the lines. Some of you might be thinking, ?Dave is trying to push some kind of vague killer-instinct theory and I just don?t buy it.? This team is very similar to the 49ers while they were under the tenure of Steve Mariucci, also a conservative coach. What did the 49ers achieve? Successful unsuccessfulness. Meaning many regular season wins, but few of the wins that actually count.
O/U 8.5:
This is another O/U that kinds of teases you to take the over simply because this team won 10 games last year, but hasn?t changed too much. The defense has had a year to grow in Dungy?s system, but which way is the offense heading? The Colts had trouble with the Titans last year, and Jacksonville and Houston have improved. Can the Colts still win 9 games on a tougher schedule? I?ll say they get 4 wins in their division, 2 from Houston, and a split from the others. They will still need 5 more wins against: @Browns, @Saints, @Buccaneers, Panthers, @Dolphins, Jets, @Bills, Patriots, Falcons, Broncos. With the success Dungy has in the regular season I wouldn?t count the Colts out. Just don?t expect a lot come playoff time.
Fantasy Sleeper:
Hard to pick a sleeper on this team, seeing is how all the major players on the offense are big names and will be drafted very high. Harrison and Manning are normally as consistent as they come, but I personally would prefer to take someone else other than these two guys with my top picks. Question marks surround James, and he might share some time with Dominic Rhodes, maybe its best to stay away from him too. Reggie Wayne is the only other guy on this offense who might have some value if you draft him late. Last year he had caught 716 yard?s worth plus four touchdowns. He has been given every opportunity to break out and with the attention that Marvin Harrison will be receiving this should be his most productive season.
Since the arrival of Peyton Manning, and Edgerrin James the Indianapolis Colts have been so close to success, but have not been able to get over the hump. Discontent with consistently falling short, the Colts fired head coach Jim Mora and brought in The King of successful unsuccessfulness Tony Dungy. Similar to Tampa Bay, Tony Dungy went to work quickly and turned the Colts around and brought them back to their playoff form with a 10 ? 6 season. Are the Colts to expect their talented offense re-attain its stride with a consistently improving defense? Or will the Colts continue to miss that ultimate ?oomph? that Dungy?s teams are always lacking? One thing is for sure, expect a positive season with disappointing playoff results.
What we learned from Last Year:
It comes as no surprise that the defense has made improvements because Tony Dungy was brought in for that reason specifically. Has the team sacrificed anything now that he is the coach? Yes. Tony Dungy was hired with the idea that he was there to fix the defense, and Tom Moore (offensive coordinator) would handle the offense. The Colts have been inconsistent since their 13 ? 3 season a few years back, but one thing that I noticed from this team last year was a lack of a killer instinct. An absence of the ability to crush their poor opponents and put teams away once they were in control. Some how, some way, Tony Dungy has helped turn this once-prolific offense into just a ?good? offense. Two years ago they were 2nd best in the league, last year they dropped to ninth. Now some of you might argue that one of the reasons for the drop was due Edgerrin James not being fully healthy last year, but that argument does not hold any water because two years ago he was virtually unavailable are year long. Their blowouts last year came against Houston twice, Dallas, and a (fluky) blowout in Philadelphia. Besides that, on a very easy schedule their margin of victory was only 4.5 points. Besides the one game against Philly, I never really felt that the Colts offense was a ferocious threat like it used to be. Dungy is the master of conservative play, so I would point the finger to him for the decline of the offense. Maybe his conservative environment has trickled down to the offense.
Besides his first year head coaching, Dungy has coached his teams to an average of a 10 ? 6 record (roughly). Traditionally his teams have shown nothing in the playoffs. I expect the same thing again from this team. The Minnesota Timberwolves would be a great fit for Tony because they have great regular seasons every year as well and exit in the first round of playoffs. Similar to the T-Wolves, the Colts do very well against poor teams and not nearly as well against good teams. The Colts had a record of 3 ? 5 against teams that were above .500 last year proving once again that this team is a pretender. On paper this looked like a match made in heaven, a great offense with a defensive wizard as the coach but this team has a lot more work to do before the paper becomes a reality.
What has changed?:
This team is an image of their coach. And what he depicts is conservativeness, and status quo. The team has not changed a whole heck of a lot personnel wise in the off-season, but they are hoping that the young defense will continue to improve. For the second year in a row the Colts spent most of their draft picks on the defensive side of the ball, which was a smart move. Second-round pick Michael Doss is not a big name yet but he is an explosive tackler with pretty good cover skills. He was the best player on NCAA Champion Ohio-State?s defense, so you figure he will bring some intangibles to the table. Losing middle linebacker Mike Peterson to division rival Jacksonville was a mistake, especially since this team needs help at that specific position. Dwight Freeney and Chad Bratzke led a surprising pass rush last year, and will do the same again this year. Josh Williams is an athletic defensive tackle who is supposedly a good fit for Tony Dungy?s defense. He missed out last season due to foot injuries but his contributions will be welcomed this year. Don?t worry about all the ?no-names? on this defense; Tony Dungy has made a career of helping these guys overachieve.
On offense Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes look to return from knee injuries. The running game should take some pressure off of Peyton Manning who at times last year forced more than a few passes. With these guys back on the roster it will help out Manning?s decision making. The receiving corps is still awaiting the return of Qadry Ismail who is returning from an injury, but if Reggie Wayne continues his improvement, Qadry might become an afterthought.
Although this may have a tough proposition to accomplish, I think it would have been smarter to hire Tony Dungy as the defensive coordinator and promote Tom Moore to head coach. I?m not sure of the exact food chain of these coaches but Dungy is interfering with the offense somewhere along the lines. Some of you might be thinking, ?Dave is trying to push some kind of vague killer-instinct theory and I just don?t buy it.? This team is very similar to the 49ers while they were under the tenure of Steve Mariucci, also a conservative coach. What did the 49ers achieve? Successful unsuccessfulness. Meaning many regular season wins, but few of the wins that actually count.
O/U 8.5:
This is another O/U that kinds of teases you to take the over simply because this team won 10 games last year, but hasn?t changed too much. The defense has had a year to grow in Dungy?s system, but which way is the offense heading? The Colts had trouble with the Titans last year, and Jacksonville and Houston have improved. Can the Colts still win 9 games on a tougher schedule? I?ll say they get 4 wins in their division, 2 from Houston, and a split from the others. They will still need 5 more wins against: @Browns, @Saints, @Buccaneers, Panthers, @Dolphins, Jets, @Bills, Patriots, Falcons, Broncos. With the success Dungy has in the regular season I wouldn?t count the Colts out. Just don?t expect a lot come playoff time.
Fantasy Sleeper:
Hard to pick a sleeper on this team, seeing is how all the major players on the offense are big names and will be drafted very high. Harrison and Manning are normally as consistent as they come, but I personally would prefer to take someone else other than these two guys with my top picks. Question marks surround James, and he might share some time with Dominic Rhodes, maybe its best to stay away from him too. Reggie Wayne is the only other guy on this offense who might have some value if you draft him late. Last year he had caught 716 yard?s worth plus four touchdowns. He has been given every opportunity to break out and with the attention that Marvin Harrison will be receiving this should be his most productive season.
