Last Year:
The Super Bowl champs began their attempt at repeat with a sparkling 3 - 0 start but they hit the wall pretty quick losing their next 4. The Cinderella slipper seemed to have worn out as this team just lacked the 'magic touch' they had a year ago. What was the reason? Most likely because they were no longer a secret. With a big bulls-eye on their back they found themselves fighting for every win, every point, and every yard. All of this came a lot harder than they year before when they were underestimated. Even a great coach like Bill Belitchek couldn't overcome defficiencies in the run defence. This team made some great free agent acquisitions two years ago right before their Super Bowl year, and have re-tooled nicely once again. If Lady Luck, and her whole family, decide to return after a year's vacation to this team, maybe they are ready to return to contention?
What we Learned from Last Year:
For a team that didn't really change too much after their Super Bowl run, some people might tend to scratch their heads wondering why there was such a drop off. I know Tom Brady and Antowain Smith got a lot of media attention for the decline, but in reality their numbers didn't change that much. Tom Brady's completion percentage and qb rating barely changed, and Antowain Smith's yards per carry only dropped by 0.1 yards. Their offense was nothing to write home about to begin with, but it got the job done in their winning year. The major change on this team was it's inability to stop the run. Only Seattle was worse than them in run defense, and finishing ahead of Seattle is like placing first in stripper IQ comptetion. They remained competitive all year, but they just couldn't get the defensive stops needed late in their games to give themselves a chance.
The other most important thing to note is what happens to a lot of championship teams. The Patriots in their championship year were like the time you went to the club, you were doing your pickup lines, you had a few drinks, you had your mojo going, then you took a hot-ass girl home and got laid. The Patriots the next year were the time you went to the club, tried to used the same lines again, and you just didn't have it. You know how those days are......oh nevermind. When they won the Super Bowl they got a lot of breaks. Most teams do when they make a run, but on top of that they were fairly healthy as well (similar to the Anaheim Angels). Last year, although I don't recall any severe injuries, this team did have a lot knicks and cuts throughout the year. They just couldn't get into the groove that they had. Being the champs, everyone wanted to knock 'em down. Everyone got motivated to play them. That's not something that they were used to.
What has Changed?:
For a team that did so poorly against the run last year, they were quick to address it this offseason. Bringing in Rodney Harrison and Rosey Colvin should definitely help them out. Harrison is not the best safety protecting against the pass, but will definitely fill some of those running lanes. They also added run stopper Ted Washington, and also Ty Warren through the draft to shore up the D-line. This team ranked 26th in third down conversions allowed last year, and you can blame that squarely on the run defense. Most of their opponents were facing short 3rd down situations since they could run the ball so well. This appears to be the most talent Bill Belitchek has had to work with since coming becoming New England's coach. A big change for this defense will be the 3 - 4 defensive scheme. Up until a few days ago they were looking for a nose tackle, and they had auditionned several players. Ted Washington should step into that role fairly comfortably. The secondary has never been anything to worry about. Ty Law, and Lawyer Milloy do a good job of shutting down half of the field, and Bellitchek and his scheming cloud the rest of the passing lanes. With more talent and more depth this defense should be back in form.
On offense once again Antowain Smith seems to be receiving a lot of attention. Although his yards per carry remained very similar to 2001, the Patriots really lacked big games from Antowain. In 2001 he had 4 100+ yard games, and a couple more that were pretty close to 100. Last year they really missed his big punch as he had only one game of 100+ yards, and only one game with 90+ yards. Not a big surprise seeing how 2001 was a contract year, and last year he signed that big contract, but either way he's lost his starting job. I personally think he's a bum, but the team has shown ways to use him effectively. They need to find that again. Currently they've decided to go with a running back by committee approach, which basically means they don't have a back. Smith will be splitting carries with Kevin Faulk, who is even worse than Antowain unless it's 3rd down. What a kick in the pants he will be if he is ineffective this year once again because Antowain will be a Patriot for about another 3 years after this one.
New England's passing game has been pretty effective over the past couple of years. They basically do short passes, and let their speedy receiver do the trick. Expect more of the same from Brown and Co. One thing that seems to keep this team afloat is their special teams. Especially in their crowning year they got a lot of momentum boosts from Troy Brown on returns. This team does very well on special teams, and they should continue to.
O/U 8.5:
This is another tough total for a team that many people are uncertain what kind of results we'll see. All the teams in this division are above average and getting wins might cause bloodshed. The Pats do seem to have one advantage over the Bills because of the Bledsoe factor, but I can assure you that that Patriots won't have much success in-house if their run defense doesn't improve. I will say they get 3 wins from the division, which means they'll need another 6 to go over. They play: @Eagles, @Redskins, Titans, Giants, Browns, @Broncos, Cowboys, @Texans, @Colts, Jaguars. The Pats themselves are a 'bubble' team and they face a lot of these borderline teams so its hard to judge how they will finish.
Fantasy Sleeper:
Troy Brown seems to be the most valuable player on this offense because he gets the most touches. He catches the most passes, he returns punts, and runs reverses. The problem is that he's no sleeper. I would stay away from Antowain Bust because he's really only had one good year in his career. I would take a shot with this defense. The Patriots and Bill Belitchek are known for their defense. You figure they will be able to bounce back from last year's shoddy performance. The offense is not very explosive, and just does enough for this team to win games so anyone besides Brown on the offense might be a bit lacking for fantasy production. If you're a Bellitchek believer, take a shot with their D.
The Super Bowl champs began their attempt at repeat with a sparkling 3 - 0 start but they hit the wall pretty quick losing their next 4. The Cinderella slipper seemed to have worn out as this team just lacked the 'magic touch' they had a year ago. What was the reason? Most likely because they were no longer a secret. With a big bulls-eye on their back they found themselves fighting for every win, every point, and every yard. All of this came a lot harder than they year before when they were underestimated. Even a great coach like Bill Belitchek couldn't overcome defficiencies in the run defence. This team made some great free agent acquisitions two years ago right before their Super Bowl year, and have re-tooled nicely once again. If Lady Luck, and her whole family, decide to return after a year's vacation to this team, maybe they are ready to return to contention?
What we Learned from Last Year:
For a team that didn't really change too much after their Super Bowl run, some people might tend to scratch their heads wondering why there was such a drop off. I know Tom Brady and Antowain Smith got a lot of media attention for the decline, but in reality their numbers didn't change that much. Tom Brady's completion percentage and qb rating barely changed, and Antowain Smith's yards per carry only dropped by 0.1 yards. Their offense was nothing to write home about to begin with, but it got the job done in their winning year. The major change on this team was it's inability to stop the run. Only Seattle was worse than them in run defense, and finishing ahead of Seattle is like placing first in stripper IQ comptetion. They remained competitive all year, but they just couldn't get the defensive stops needed late in their games to give themselves a chance.
The other most important thing to note is what happens to a lot of championship teams. The Patriots in their championship year were like the time you went to the club, you were doing your pickup lines, you had a few drinks, you had your mojo going, then you took a hot-ass girl home and got laid. The Patriots the next year were the time you went to the club, tried to used the same lines again, and you just didn't have it. You know how those days are......oh nevermind. When they won the Super Bowl they got a lot of breaks. Most teams do when they make a run, but on top of that they were fairly healthy as well (similar to the Anaheim Angels). Last year, although I don't recall any severe injuries, this team did have a lot knicks and cuts throughout the year. They just couldn't get into the groove that they had. Being the champs, everyone wanted to knock 'em down. Everyone got motivated to play them. That's not something that they were used to.
What has Changed?:
For a team that did so poorly against the run last year, they were quick to address it this offseason. Bringing in Rodney Harrison and Rosey Colvin should definitely help them out. Harrison is not the best safety protecting against the pass, but will definitely fill some of those running lanes. They also added run stopper Ted Washington, and also Ty Warren through the draft to shore up the D-line. This team ranked 26th in third down conversions allowed last year, and you can blame that squarely on the run defense. Most of their opponents were facing short 3rd down situations since they could run the ball so well. This appears to be the most talent Bill Belitchek has had to work with since coming becoming New England's coach. A big change for this defense will be the 3 - 4 defensive scheme. Up until a few days ago they were looking for a nose tackle, and they had auditionned several players. Ted Washington should step into that role fairly comfortably. The secondary has never been anything to worry about. Ty Law, and Lawyer Milloy do a good job of shutting down half of the field, and Bellitchek and his scheming cloud the rest of the passing lanes. With more talent and more depth this defense should be back in form.
On offense once again Antowain Smith seems to be receiving a lot of attention. Although his yards per carry remained very similar to 2001, the Patriots really lacked big games from Antowain. In 2001 he had 4 100+ yard games, and a couple more that were pretty close to 100. Last year they really missed his big punch as he had only one game of 100+ yards, and only one game with 90+ yards. Not a big surprise seeing how 2001 was a contract year, and last year he signed that big contract, but either way he's lost his starting job. I personally think he's a bum, but the team has shown ways to use him effectively. They need to find that again. Currently they've decided to go with a running back by committee approach, which basically means they don't have a back. Smith will be splitting carries with Kevin Faulk, who is even worse than Antowain unless it's 3rd down. What a kick in the pants he will be if he is ineffective this year once again because Antowain will be a Patriot for about another 3 years after this one.
New England's passing game has been pretty effective over the past couple of years. They basically do short passes, and let their speedy receiver do the trick. Expect more of the same from Brown and Co. One thing that seems to keep this team afloat is their special teams. Especially in their crowning year they got a lot of momentum boosts from Troy Brown on returns. This team does very well on special teams, and they should continue to.
O/U 8.5:
This is another tough total for a team that many people are uncertain what kind of results we'll see. All the teams in this division are above average and getting wins might cause bloodshed. The Pats do seem to have one advantage over the Bills because of the Bledsoe factor, but I can assure you that that Patriots won't have much success in-house if their run defense doesn't improve. I will say they get 3 wins from the division, which means they'll need another 6 to go over. They play: @Eagles, @Redskins, Titans, Giants, Browns, @Broncos, Cowboys, @Texans, @Colts, Jaguars. The Pats themselves are a 'bubble' team and they face a lot of these borderline teams so its hard to judge how they will finish.
Fantasy Sleeper:
Troy Brown seems to be the most valuable player on this offense because he gets the most touches. He catches the most passes, he returns punts, and runs reverses. The problem is that he's no sleeper. I would stay away from Antowain Bust because he's really only had one good year in his career. I would take a shot with this defense. The Patriots and Bill Belitchek are known for their defense. You figure they will be able to bounce back from last year's shoddy performance. The offense is not very explosive, and just does enough for this team to win games so anyone besides Brown on the offense might be a bit lacking for fantasy production. If you're a Bellitchek believer, take a shot with their D.
