Vegas Bookie Battle Week 11

[Senor Capper]

In Week 11 we have 16 games to choose off the menu.


Lines Used:

CAR -3.5
JAX -4.5
IND -5.5
NE -10.5
STL -6.5 (nice line eh?)
ATL -6.5
WAS -6.5
DAL -9.5
NYG -3.5
MIA -1.5
SEA -12.5
SD -8.5
DEN -12.5
PIT -3.5
KC -6.5
GB -3.5

-------------------


Week 11 Consensus Plays: (picks out of 70)

CHI-40, TEN-36, CIN-49, NO-36, STL-47, TB-49, OAK-46, DET-58, NYG-51, CLE-50, SF-41, SD-44, DEN-49, PIT-51, KC-36, GB-46.


Last week the consensus plays went 7-7 giving them a season total of 79-64.


=============


TOP 10 Leaderboard:



1st Place.... (barely & sweating bullets)

Chuck Esposito (Caesars) 4-10 LW - 85-58 YTD
CHI-TEN-CIN-NE-STL-TB-OAK-DET-PHI-CLE-SF-BUF-NYJ-PIT-HOU-GB

-------------

2nd Place (tie)... (closing in Chuckie boy)


Vinnie Michaels (Virgin River) 10-4 LW - 84-59 YTD
CAR-TEN-CIN-NE-STL-ATL-WAS-DET-NYG-CLE-SF-SD-DEN-PIT-HOU-GB


Michel Hendrie (Paris) 5-9 LW - 84-59 YTD
CAR-JAX-IND-NE-STL-TB-OAK-DET-NYG-MIA-SEA-BUF-DEN-BAL-KC-MIN

---------------

3rd Place (tie)...

Jay Rood (Mandalay Bay) 9-5 LW - 83-60 YTD
CHI-TEN-CIN-NO-STL-TB-OAK-DET-NYG-MIA-SEA-BUF-DEN-BAL-KC-MIN


Nikkie Commisso (Gold Coast) 8-6 LW - 83-60 YTD
CHI-TEN-CIN-NO-STL-TB-OAK-DET-NYG-CLE-SF-SD-DEN-BAL-HOU-GB

---------------

Da Rest....


Pat Rethore (Az Charlies East) 9-5 LW - 82-61 YTD
CHI-TEN-CIN-NE-STL-TB-OAK-DET-PHI-CLE-SEA-BUF-DEN-PIT-KC-MIN

Kevin Klein (Cannery) 7-7 LW - 82-61 YTD
CAR-TEN-CIN-NO-STL-ATL-WAS-DET-NYG-CLE-SF-SD-DEN-BAL-HOU-GB


Terch Castaneda ((Wynn-LV) 6-8 LW - 82-61 YTD
CHI-JAX-IND-NO-STL-ATL-WAS-DET-PHI-MIA-SEA-SD-DEN-PIT-KC-GB

------------------

Raphael Esparza (NY-NY) 5-9 LW - 81-62 YTD
CHI-JAX-CIN-NO-ARI-TB-WAS-DET-NYG-CLE-SF-BUF-DEN-PIT-HOU-GB

---------------

John Pinto (Silver Legacy) 7-7 LW - 80-63 YTD
CHI-TEN-CIN-NOR-STL-TB-OAK-DET-NYG-CLE-SF-SD-DEN-PIT-HOU-GB

---------------

Leaderboard Consensus:

10-0

DET +9.5

--------------

9-1

STL -6.5 (with that line no wonder)
DEN -12.5

--------------

8-2

CIN +5.5
CLE +1.5
GB-3.5

-------------

7-3

CHI +3.5
TEN +4.5
TB +6.5
NYG -3.5
SF +12.5
PIT -3.5
HOU +6.5

-------------

6-4

OAK +6.5
SD -8.5


============================

 

[Senor Capper]

Denny the Dogs Week 11

CAR -3
TEN +4
CIN +6.5
NOR +10
STL -9
TB +6
WAS -6
DET +9
PHI +4
CLE -3
SEA -12
BUF +9
DEN -13
PIT -8
KC -6
GB -3


LW: 4-9 (laid a turd)
SEASON: 76-63-4

 

[Senor Capper]

Mark Mayers Week 11 plays are....

1. NYG -3.5
2. INDY -4.5
3. TB +6
4. CAR/CHI UNDER 34.5
5. SD -10

LW: 3-2
SEASON: 27-20-3 (57.4%)

 

[Senor Capper]

Week 11 - Sunday, Nov. 20, 2005



*New England 27 New Orleans 17 -- Injuries and other roster decisions have decimated the Patriots defense. However, Tom Brady and the offense should be able to handle the Saints' poor defense.

*Dallas 21 Detroit 19 -- A team unsettled at quarterback usually has an inconsistent offense. That couldn't be more true with the Lions.

*Cleveland 16 Miami 14 -- The Dolphins haven't shown the ability to win on the road. Until they do that, they'll find themselves just short of making the playoffs. The Browns aren't much better, but they'll take advantage of the home field.

Carolina 27 *Chicago 17 -- The Bears defense, one of the league's best, might struggle against the Panthers, who have one of the league's top receivers in Steve Smith. He virtually has been unstoppable and is a potential MVP candidate.

*Atlanta 21 Tampa Bay 14 -- The Buccaneers offense has been more predictable with Chris Simms at quarterback. The Falcons' aggressive defense could go to an eight-man front to stop Cadillac Williams & Co.

Pittsburgh 27 *Baltimore 13 -- The Steelers have a terrific defensive unit that should limit the Ravens' ability to run the ball. Ben Roethlisberger is expected to return after missing two games following arthroscopic knee surgery.

Jacksonville 23 *Tennessee 17 -- Jacksonville's defense should prove to be too much for the Titans, who have been inconsistent on offense.

*Washington 24 Oakland 20 -- QB Mark Brunell has executed the Redskins' game plan efficiently. Look for him to do the same at home against the Raiders, who continue to make strides on offense.

*St. Louis 24 Arizona 17 -- The Rams are finally adjusting to a coaching change. The Cardinals might be a year or two away from climbing their way out of the NFC West cellar.

*NY Giants 28 Philadelphia 20 -- Eli Manning's maturation has made the Giants offense one of the league's most dangerous. The Terrell Owens controversy apparently is behind the Eagles -- but now they'll be without Donovan McNabb, too.

Seattle 24 *San Francisco 13 -- RB Shaun Alexander is powering Seattle's impressive offensive attack. The 49ers' struggles have been compounded by inconsistency at quarterback.

*San Diego 26 Buffalo 20 -- The Bills will have a difficult time against the Chargers, who have home-field advantage and too many offensive weapons.

*Denver 23 NY Jets 14 -- Broncos QB Jake Plummer is having an MVP-type season. He really has stepped up his game and he's supported by a solid running attack.

Indianapolis 26 *Cincinnati 20 -- The Colts now have a solid defense to go along with the Peyton Manning-led offense. The Bengals are much better this season, but they're still not in Indy's class.

Kansas City 24 *Houston 17 -- The Chiefs will depend primarily on Larry Johnson after losing Priest Holmes to a back injury. The Texans are making tiny strides but remain one of the league's least productive teams on offense.

Week 11 - Monday, Nov. 21, 2005
*Green Bay 26 Minnesota 20 -- These are two strugglings teams that were used to being the class of their division. Favre has had some pretty big nights on Monday night.

* -- Home Team

 

[Senor Capper]

Week 11 primer: Seven weeks in heaven



"Two more games! Two more games!" I've demanded it, and the NFL has finally delivered it after 10 weeks of byes. We've got seven heavenly weeks of action ahead until the playoffs, which means some of those games will start to feel like the playoffs.

For the teams that have fewer than four wins (11 of the NFL's 32), it's pretty much over. For the teams that have more than six wins (six of 32), it's all about postseason positions.

That leaves 15 teams fighting with everything they have to stay alive beyond New Year's Day. Consider it a new season, starting with the ...


GAME OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at Cincinnati. The Colts are considerably different from last season, and that's a good thing, because they're considerably better than they were last season. Obviously, defenses dropping everyone back and allowing themselves to be gashed by Edgerrin James isn't working, as it's also giving Peyton Manning the same looks to exploit every week.

There aren't many ways to beat the Colts, but the better way is to take away James and hold your breath against Manning. At least with the passing game, there can be errant throws, tipped passes, bad routes, little mistakes, some things that lead to incompletions and stalled drives. Expect Marvin Lewis to have his young, energized, home-standing, well-rested Bengals play that way in being aggressive and physical in coverage, so that when that rare opportunity for a takeaway against Manning happens, they take advantage of it.

In addition, unlike many teams that face the Colts, the Bengals can move the ball on their defense. Carson Palmer may have a Manning-like future ahead of him, and they have talented receivers led by Chad Johnson and a deep backfield with Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry. Expect a ball-control approach from Lewis, with an eye on consuming the clock and keeping Manning off the field.

So there it is: my reasonable reasoning for an upset. The Bengals have some experience knocking off 9-0 teams in Cincy, having done so two years ago against Kansas City. They'll do it again here, causing some corks to pop somewhere in South Florida. Bengals 28, Colts 27.

NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay at Atlanta. For the second consecutive week, Bucs southpaw quarterback Chris Simms draws a mobile lefthanded counterpart. But Michael Vick poses a whole different kind of athletic threat than Mark Brunell, and Simms won't have the same kind of success he had last week at home against Brunell's Redskins as he will this week on the road against the Falcons' fast, aggressive defense.

Vick's playmaking and leadership savvy over Simms will be seen, as the former will work the routes underneath the cover 2 from the pocket and also will take off for big yardage when the Bucs get caught too far upfield. The Falcons, itching to tee off on someone after losing to the Packers, will make that someone Simms. Falcons 24, Buccaneers 17.

RIVALRY OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia at New York Giants. Replacing a beat-up Donovan McNabb with the fresh legs of Mike McMahon may actually inject some life into the Eagles' offense, but the big dropoff between McNabb and McMahon comes in experience, especially in a difficult division road game. The Eagles' defense also has given away big play after big play, which should help Eli Manning get out of his slump.

The Eagles won't quit on coach Andy Reid no matter who they have on the field, but the Giants will be more desperate to rebound after last week's meltdown vs. Minnesota. The balance of power will continue to shift in the NFC East. Giants 24, Eagles 23.

TEAM OF THE WEEK

Carolina at Chicago. The Bears have cruised during their five-game winning streak, but the level of competition takes a serious jump this week. They have yet to beat a team with a current winning record, and the Panthers may just be the best team in the NFC.

No team could be finer than Carolina. John Fox's club can win with the passing game, Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith. Take Smith away, they can pound you with Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster. Defensively, they've been outstanding in getting sacks, takeaways and TDs to help that offense. The Bears will have their hands full, and if they single-cover Smith like they've done to other big-time receivers, they won't stay in it long. I like what Lovie Smith's doing, but his team is simply facing a much more talented opponent. Panthers 20, Bears 10.

SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

Minnesota at Green Bay. Because both teams can make their share of offensive mistakes, the score won't be as high as the production against each team's shaky defense. But in typical fashion between these NFC North rivals, the game will come down to the wire.

The Vikings are suddenly showing some cohesiveness, and the Packers are back to being a respectable opponent after winning at Atlanta. The difference to me is, at 4-5, Mike Tice and the Vikes are back to being very much alive in the NFC North race, and that should produce a good all-around game. I like the combo of grizzled Brett Favre and green Samkon Gado leading the Pack's offense, but their secondary will let them down late. Vikings 24, Packers 23.

 

[Senor Capper]

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Tennessee over Jacksonville. I'm just playing a hunch here that the Titans will come out fired up at home after a bye week and upend their higher-standing division rivals. Expect some hard-hitting trench action on both sides, but the grittiness of quarterbacks Steve McNair and Byron Leftwich will have both teams putting some points on the board.

You can expect something exciting and new from Jeff Fisher to throw off the Jags, and that will pay off a few times with big plays. Once more, I have another team winning by this same score. Titans 24, Jaguars 23.

**** OF THE WEEK

Dallas over Detroit. The Cowboys will ride the momentum of their Monday night magic, as they'll be the team doing the heavy feasting in this pre- Thanksgiving game for both teams. Don't expect them to suddenly go to the "wishbone," however, as Drew Bledsoe, Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Glenn all can carve up Detroit's shaky secondary.

Both Roy Williamses come into this game red-hot, but the Cowboys' safety's defensive backfield mates will keep the Lions' wide receiver in check all day to limit their offense. Cowboys 27, Lions 10.

REST OF THE WEEK

New Orleans at New England. Is there any better example of quarterback/coach stark opposites than Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in contrast to Aaron Brooks and Jim Haslett? The Patriots' Super Bowl savvy will pay off against an inferior opponent as they will make fewer mistakes and make more big plays, and home-field advantage will give a much-needed confidence boost to their defense. Patriots 31, Saints 14.

Miami at Cleveland. Speaking of Belichick, he should be proud of the way his former defensive coordinators Nick Saban and Romeo Crennel have handled themselves as rookie head coaches. Not surprisingly, they've each started to rebuild with 3-4 defense and emphases on power running games. At this point, however, the Dolphins have better talent and better execution with both phases. Dolphins 20, Browns 19.

Oakland at Washington. The Redskins can't afford to make this a shootout against Kerry Collins and Randy Moss after losing a surprisingly high-scoring affair last week at Tampa, especially with their struggles to create turnovers and sacks. Expect plenty of Clinton Portis and more ball-control drives from Brunell, with their own explosive receiver Moss -- Santana -- making a game-changing play against the Raiders' injury-depleted secondary. Redskins 26, Raiders 21.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore. The Steelers have played their best football on the road this season, going 4-0 and winning by double-digit spreads three times. The desperate Ravens will bring out their physical best against their AFC North archrivals, but although that will leave Bill Cowher's team a little black and blue, the visitors still will have a well-earned victory to show for it. Steelers 16, Ravens 13.

New York Jets at Denver. Everything is going wrong for the Jets -- injuries, an enigmatic defense and an unenviable schedule. Denver marks the seventh team currently above .500 that Herman Edwards' team has faced in 10 games. Everything is going right for the Broncos -- their running game, run defense and Jake Plummer. Oh yeah, they're also 5-0 at home, averaging a shade fewer than 30 points per game there. Broncos 33, Jets 16.

Buffalo at San Diego. I've received access to the Chargers' top secret offensive game plan: Coming off a bye, they will have LaDainian Tomlinson rested and ready at home to run over the league's second-worst rushing defense. Despite facing the league's third-worst pass defense, the Bills lack the protection and playmakers needed to keep up with Tomlinson. Chargers 27, Bills 17.

Kansas City at Houston. I've received access to the Chiefs' top secret offensive game plan: Coming off a loss, they will have Larry Johnson ready on the road to run over the league's worst rushing defense. I think David Carr will have some success getting rid of the ball quickly and spreading it around on the league's fourth-worst pass defense, but that won't be enough to get his team a rare prime-time victory. Chiefs 24, Texans 20.

WEST OF THE WEEK

I almost forgot the NFC West, but could you blame me? Here we go ...

Arizona at St. Louis. Larry Fitzgerald and the likely return of Anquan Boldin will help Kurt Warner play well in his return to the Edward Jones Dome as they'll run right past the Rams' secondary, but even if he passes for 350 yards, it won't help the fact the Cards don't have a running game or a defense. The Rams will pass and run at will with Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson, and they rarely are on the losing end of a shootout at home. Rams 27, Cardinals 20.

Seattle at San Francisco. "I'm tired. It's been a long day." That's either me right now or a 49ers' defender on Sunday after Shaun Alexander has left skidmarks on their entire front seven. Seahawks 34, 49ers 13.

STATS OF THE WEEK

Week 10 straight up: 10-4


Week 10 record vs. the spread: 7-7


Season record straight up: 94-50
Season record vs. the spread: 70-74

 

[Blackman]

Great stuff SC, greatly appreciated.