New England at Pittsburgh.
Both teams bring physical grittiness and mental toughness to the field every week. Their respective players are well coached, have passion for the game and perform like it. That's why it's hard to accept that one of these teams must make a playoff exit before the Super Bowl.
Somewhere in the back of the Steelers' minds will be the AFC championship game of three years ago, which served as a springboard to the Patriots' current NFL reign. It was the same place, the same time of year, a 24-17 Pats win in the second postseason game ever at Heinz Field.
The difference-making play early in that game was a punt-return touchdown by Troy Brown. Brown is the Pats' paradigm of selflessness. Special teams? He lives for it. Offense? He can still catch it. Defense? He can cover, too. T.B. or not T.B. -- from the steady arm of Tom Brady down to the tackling of Tully Banta-Cain, every member of Bill Belichick's team has a hand in the team's success.
The current Steelers haven't enjoyed the same Super Bowl glory, but that only makes them hungrier to get there as a team, regardless if it's Jerome Bettis, who has run through it all, or Ben Roethlisberger, who is taking it all in for the first time. Their blue-collar, Iron City-appropriate teamwork stands out in their physical offensive line and blitzing defense.
With the defensive scheming of Belichick and Romeo Crennel on the visitors' side and Dick ****** on the hosts' side, this has the makings of a gleefully gritty game that comes down to a few big plays.
In the passing game, while Brady is more experienced than Roethlisberger, Big Ben has the better matchup-daunting receivers in Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress. In the running game, however, this is where former Bengal Corey Dillon, after years of being beat up by the Steelers, earns his keep with the Pats.
Dillon didn't play when the teams met in the regular season, and it threw off the balance of the Pats' offense, which after some early struggles couldn't effectively play from behind. A full-speed force since that thigh injury, he should be motivated to run hard and power through the stout front of his former AFC North rivals. When the game's close late, I need to give the edge to Brady and Dillon, even if it's not much over Roethlisberger, Bettis and Duce Staley.
Also, in the waning seconds of the game, the Steelers will know why Adam Vinatieri is just a "little bit better" at making game-winning kicks than the Jets' Doug Brien.
Patriots 23, Steelers 20.
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New England Patriots (15-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (16-1)
Line: Steelers +3
The Steelers are the team that ended the Patriots winning streak and they face them again at home and yet they are a home underdog! If Bill Belichick has a constant answer for Peyton Manning how do you think he is going to make a rookie feel? Remember when the Patriots won the Super Bowl back in 2001? They won their title game in Pittsburgh and history has a funny way of repeating itself.
Straight: Patriots
Spread: Patriots
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Patriots at Steelers
Time: 6:30 p.m. Sunday at Heinz Field
Records: Patriots (15-2); Steelers (16-1)
The skinny: Well, the narrow escape against the Jets managed to accomplish at least one positive: If the Steelers lose to New England, the disappointment and despair around the 'Burgh won't be nearly as extreme. The Patriots have been established as 3-point favorites for three reasons: 1) Their impressive performance against the Colts and Peyton Manning; 2) The Steelers poor performance against the Jets; 3) The Patriots' experience and success in the playoffs. Coach Bill Belichick has never lost a playoff game with the Patriots (7-0), and, of course, neither has Tom Brady (7-0). Don't forget, though: Ben Roethlisberger had one of his best games of the season in the first meeting against the Patriots and the Steelers rushed for 221 yards, their second highest total of the season. The Patriots deserve to be the favorites because, well, they're the Patriots, the defending Super Bowl champs. But, all together now: I-I-I-I-I-I-I got a feeeeeling, Pittsburgh' s going to the Super Bowl.
Prediction: Steelers, 17-16
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New England (15-2) at Pittsburgh (16-1),
Sunday, 6:30, CBS
(New England -3)
My, how quickly folks have turned their back on the Pittsburgh Steelers. A team that won an NFL-best 15 games during the regular season and was the unquestioned best team in football for the last two months nearly saw it all go for naught against the Jets last Saturday. The Steelers' good karma and Doug Brien's erratic leg helped Bill Cowher's crew survive and win, 20-17 in overtime, but the near-miss coupled with the Patriots' dominant effort against the Colts on Sunday have led to major questions about Pittsburgh's ability to reach its second Super Bowl of the post-Bradshaw era. The handicappers, no longer impressed by the Steelers' 34-20 takedown of New England in Week 8, have made the home team a field goal underdog against the defending Super Bowl Champs this week.
In reality, the Steelers' performance against the Jets wasn't all that different from most of its 2004 outings. Ben Roethlisberger (17-30 passing, 181 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) threw a couple of potentially costly picks but was far from awful, Jerome Bettis (27 carries, 101 yards, 1 TD) had an ugly fumble but the ground game (193 yards) generally dominated, and the defense let New York drive into their territory a few times but held the Jet offense out of the end zone for 60-plus minutes. The only touchdowns the Steelers allowed were on a 75-yard punt return by Santana Moss and a 86-yard interception return for safety Reggie Tongue. To turn a basketball phrase, Cowher's club could use some work on its transition defense. Otherwise, the Steelers looked like the Steelers.
The Patriots, meanwhile, looked even better than the team that went 14-2 when they humbled Indianapolis, 20-3. New England largely kept the ball out of Peyton Manning's hands by handing off to Corey Dillon (23 carries, 144 yards) and Kevin Faulk (11 carries, 56 yards), with a dash of Tom Brady (18-27 passing, 144 yards, 1 TD) and the aerial game thrown in for good measure. The New England defense was outstanding, with safety Rodney Harrison (11 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 INT) cast in the Manning-killing role usually played by Ty Law, while the entire unit shut down the plummeting Edgerrin James (14 carries, 39 yards).
The Steelers took down the Pats in Week 8 by getting out of the gate with 21 first-quarter points, a performance that is very unlikely to be repeated on Sunday night. You might also remember that Corey Dillon sat out that game with a thigh injury, and while Dillon won't average six yards a carry against Pittsburgh's quality front seven, his presence will obviously take some pressure off of Brady and give the Pats a much-needed offensive dimension. The x-factor in this game is the Steeler offense, which can't afford to commit three turnovers as it did last week and also can't hope to pile up 221 ground yards on New England as it did back in October. The smart money in what appears to be a dead-even matchup has to ride with Bill Belichick, who will devise a scheme to harass Roethlisberger and get his team back to the Super Bowl for the third time in four years.
Patriots 21, Steelers 17.
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