Vegas Odd Makers Hbo Special...

[make'n whoopie]

I USUALLY POST ON NBA FORUM BUT HAD TO ASK......HBO HAD A SPECIAL ON LAST NIGHT ON VEGAS ODDS MAKING...it was mentioned in this forum last night that's how I knew it was on. It was actually prettY interesting. I keep asking myself this question after seeing the show: (any thoughts would be great).

You know what keeps going through my mind? Its that show on HBO last night about line setting. The HBO guy asked the sports overseas sport book odds maker this "so when you post a spread you think a team is going to win by that much?" the guy answered with this, " no not at all, its just a number we think fans will think is fair so that betting isn't lop-sided."
Does this mean that if we always took the opposite way the line was moving we would be betting opposite John Q public thus upping our % of winning if we always bet with this trend????? (all this considering John Q loses the majority of the time which he does keeping sports betting a profitable business).

-WHOOPIE

 

[Valuist]

You're assuming that John Q Public is responsible for all the line moves when many are due to wise guys and betting syndicates.

 

[make'n whoopie]

thanks

thanks

If there is tremendous line movement in a short amount of time (ie just as it opens or just prior to the tip) would you say to bet the way the line is moving since the wise guys seems to have a better handle on the game? totally in the dark, thanks for the imput. -whoopie

 

[Valuist]

Kelso Sturgeon has an interesting article at his site about wise guys. Go to his site and its under "archives". I'd post the link, but I think Jack doesn't want links to other sites posted. Sturgeon claims that two betting syndicates have lost over $6 million this season in college basketball. He says that Las Vegas has stopped making big line moves based on their bets because they've been so bad. His message? Look at the line moves and don't discount them, but don't base bets solely on them.

 

[make'n whoopie]

thanks

thanks

thanks for the info!!!

 

[rrc]

Not sure what two big syndicates Kelso is referring to but one would have to assume one is Billy Walters. I thought I had heard that he was having a pretty good year in college hoops.
Not too sold on Kelso, he's been around since at least the late 70's as was associated with some not too reputable touts. Just my two cents.

 

[Valuist]

I am in no way trying to promote his selections. I do think, however, that his articles are interesting reading. And he makes a good point. I don't think anyone feels more stupid than when they handicap a game and like one team, only to switch because the so-called smart money is on the other team, then watch it lose.

 

[rrc]

Agreed. By the way, do you go the Elgin boat much? I hit the NW IN boats once and a while but have heard yours is the biggest in Chicagoland.