LAS VEGAS - The holiday season is supposed to be the happiest time of the year.
But excuse Cesar Robaina if he doesn't quite feel that way. It's not that Robaina doesn't enjoy the holidays. He just happens to be an NFL oddsmaker.
"Every year the last week of the regular season is the worst," said Robaina, odds manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
This season is no exception. Different playoff scenarios abound. So do matchups pitting teams in must-win situations against teams with no playoff hopes.
That's the case with Carolina against New Orleans, Jacksonville against Indianapolis, Arizona against Denver and possibly Seattle against San Diego if the Chargers still find themselves alive before they kick off in a Sunday afternoon game.
Before the days of parity, oddsmakers would shade teams in a must-win situation as much as three points. But that is no longer is that the case.
"It's not shaded as much as you might think," Robaina said. "It could be as low as a point or 1 1/2 points. There's too much balance in the league to do that now.
"It's not like the old days of the 49ers and Cowboys, who would mop up an opponent if they were in that situation. Teams show up now against opponents in must-win situations.
"You have to remember, too, that teams in must-win situations are there for a reason. They've put themselves in this spot by not winning. Look at the Saints. You have to be leery of them."
New Orleans has been upset by Minnesota and Cincinnati the past two weeks. Anticipating the public might look to play on the Saints because of their must-win situation, LVSC sent out an opening number of New Orleans minus eight at home against Carolina.
However, professional bettors thought that number was too high. By early Monday afternoon, the line was Saints minus seven.
"Must-win teams just need to win, but will not necessarily cover," Robaina said.
Teams who are out of it also can play a lot looser and take more chances.
"Sometimes teams that must win end up playing too tight," Robaina said.
There is no line yet on San Francisco's Monday night game against the Rams in St. Louis. That's because of the uncertainty of how 49ers coach Steve Mariucci is going to approach the game.
The 49ers will host a wild-card game no matter how they fare against the Rams. Therefore, it wouldn't be a big surprise if Mariucci chooses to rest some of his banged-up starters, like Terrell Owens.
This, of course, is just another headache for the LVSC oddsmakers.
"One minute Mariucci is saying he's not going to play his starters at all because he doesn't want to get anyone hurt, then he's saying he's not going to treat this like a preseason game," Robaina said. "So you don't know what kind of game you're going to get from San Francisco. On top of that, St. Louis loses (Marc) Bulger."
Favorites went 8-7 against the spread this past weekend going into Monday. Underdogs are 132-103-2 (56 percent) on the season. The 'under,' which went 10-5 during the weekend, is 119-117-1 heading into Monday's Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay game.
But excuse Cesar Robaina if he doesn't quite feel that way. It's not that Robaina doesn't enjoy the holidays. He just happens to be an NFL oddsmaker.
"Every year the last week of the regular season is the worst," said Robaina, odds manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
This season is no exception. Different playoff scenarios abound. So do matchups pitting teams in must-win situations against teams with no playoff hopes.
That's the case with Carolina against New Orleans, Jacksonville against Indianapolis, Arizona against Denver and possibly Seattle against San Diego if the Chargers still find themselves alive before they kick off in a Sunday afternoon game.
Before the days of parity, oddsmakers would shade teams in a must-win situation as much as three points. But that is no longer is that the case.
"It's not shaded as much as you might think," Robaina said. "It could be as low as a point or 1 1/2 points. There's too much balance in the league to do that now.
"It's not like the old days of the 49ers and Cowboys, who would mop up an opponent if they were in that situation. Teams show up now against opponents in must-win situations.
"You have to remember, too, that teams in must-win situations are there for a reason. They've put themselves in this spot by not winning. Look at the Saints. You have to be leery of them."
New Orleans has been upset by Minnesota and Cincinnati the past two weeks. Anticipating the public might look to play on the Saints because of their must-win situation, LVSC sent out an opening number of New Orleans minus eight at home against Carolina.
However, professional bettors thought that number was too high. By early Monday afternoon, the line was Saints minus seven.
"Must-win teams just need to win, but will not necessarily cover," Robaina said.
Teams who are out of it also can play a lot looser and take more chances.
"Sometimes teams that must win end up playing too tight," Robaina said.
There is no line yet on San Francisco's Monday night game against the Rams in St. Louis. That's because of the uncertainty of how 49ers coach Steve Mariucci is going to approach the game.
The 49ers will host a wild-card game no matter how they fare against the Rams. Therefore, it wouldn't be a big surprise if Mariucci chooses to rest some of his banged-up starters, like Terrell Owens.
This, of course, is just another headache for the LVSC oddsmakers.
"One minute Mariucci is saying he's not going to play his starters at all because he doesn't want to get anyone hurt, then he's saying he's not going to treat this like a preseason game," Robaina said. "So you don't know what kind of game you're going to get from San Francisco. On top of that, St. Louis loses (Marc) Bulger."
Favorites went 8-7 against the spread this past weekend going into Monday. Underdogs are 132-103-2 (56 percent) on the season. The 'under,' which went 10-5 during the weekend, is 119-117-1 heading into Monday's Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay game.
