TRENDS = Events in the past that help predict the future
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
BOISE STATE
15-4 vs team with win record
12-0 as fave 10.5 to 21 pts
13-6 as RD
8-3 when line +3 to -3
9-2 as RF
18-6 vs conf; 12-4 conf road
12-1 as conf HF < 28
10-7 at home
10-2 as dog
Idaho series fave 2-5
1-6 vs Pac 10
5-1 vs Mt West (BYU)
9-4-1 on grass (SJ St)
0-4 vs La Tech
8-0 final road (Nevada)
FRESNO STATE
1-8-1 off SU loss
6-11 as RF
3-8-2 as HF
3-10 vs good offence (score > 34 ppg)
12-4 as HD
1-6 as fave 3.5 to 10 pts
17-7 non-conf; 16-3 non-conf dog
8-2-1 home vs opp > .500
1-7 as fave off SU loss
15-4 vs Pac 10 (Wash)
1-4 vs SMU
Rice series vis 1-4
0-5 vs Hawaii; series host 7-2
HAWAII
3-11 vs good offence (avg > 6.25 ypp)
6-12 vs poor defence (allow > 450 ypg)
4-8 as RF
9-13 as HF
11-6 as HD
9-2 non-conf dog
3-13 as fave < 7
6-11 before bye (Rice)
7-14 after bye (Rice, Tulsa)
Fres St series host 9-3; 9-3-1 on grass
LOUISANA TECH
1-12 vs poor defence (allow > 425 ypg)
3-11 vs team with lose record
3-10 after road loss > 21 pts
4-11 after score > 37 pts
2-6-1 conf road
1-7 conf fave
1-7 non-conf dog
2-9-1 off ATS win
1-9 after score > 35 pts
Tulsa series host 5-0
4-0 vs Boise
0-6 season finale (Rice)
NEVADA
1-9 vs good offence (avg > 5.9 ypp)
8-15 vs team with lose record
8-3 as dog 3.5 to 10 pts
6-1 non-conf
12-7 after SU loss
16-2 when win SU
8-2 off DD SU loss
6-1 before bye (Buff)
RICE
11-1 when rush > 300 yards
7-14 vs good offence (score > 31 ppg)
19-5 as HD
11-2 off SU loss
12-2-1 conf host
11-0-1 as conf HD
11-1 in 1st of BB home (Hou); 1-8-1 in 1st line home
8-3 before bye (Houston, UTEP)
5-0 vs Hawaii
3-7 at Texas
SMU series host 7-1
6-1-1 vs Tulsa
2-5 vs UTEP
SAN JOSE STATE
13-1 when score > 28 pts
2-9 as dog 10.5 to 21 pts
18-1 vs poor teams (outscored by > 10 ppg)
8-1 as fave
7-1 as RF
7-13 as RD
10-2 off home conf loss
6-1 road open (SD St)
5-11 vs Mt West (SD St)
7-4 vs Stanf (0-3 L3)
Rice series host 4-0
1-7-1 after bye (Hawaii); 6-2 vs Haw (4-1 at Haw)
Nevada series fave 4-0
3-8 final home (Fres St)
SMU
1-11 vs good offence (score > 34 ppg)
7-57 when allow > 28 pts
2-12 after road loss
19-36 off ATS win
3-15-1 as RD <10
5-9 dog >20
6-11 conf road
7-3 vs TCU
3-8 in 1st of BB road (TCU, Boise)
3-6 in 2nd BB road (Okla St, Rice)
Rice series vis 1-6-1
10-5 after bye (Fres St); 7-1 as dog off bye
5-0 in HC game (Tulsa)
2-8 final home (Nevada)
3-6 vs UTEP; 9-3 final road
TULSA
4-13 vs good rush team (avg > 200 ypg)
6-13 as HF
16-30 off road loss
7-19 as RD
5-12-1 non-conf
3-7-1 vs Big 12
4-16 after 2 or more away (Navy, SJ St)
0-13-1 in 2nd of BB away (Okla St, La Tech)
Okla St series host 5-0
4-11 after bye (Boise)
1-6-1 vs Rice
3-6 vs SMU; series fave 5-1
2-7 final road (La Tech); 12-23 on grass
UTEP series host 2-10
UTEP
1-7 vs poor teams (win pct < 25%)
24-14 vs team with win record
3-12 as HD < 7 pts
9-16 as DD dog
10-5 as HF
8-1 as conf HF
2-11 vs opp < .333
3-16 as HD < 7
2-10 non-conf
4-12 on grass (Ariz St, Fres St, La Tech, SJ St)
5-1-1 vs Pac 10
4-9 before bye (Boise, SJ St)
3-10 vs New Mex St
4-10 after bye (New Mex St, Rice)
5-1 in HC game (Hawaii)
3-6 final home (SMU)
5-1 at Tulsa; 6-12 final road; series vis 10-2
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
BOISE STATE
15-4 vs team with win record
12-0 as fave 10.5 to 21 pts
13-6 as RD
8-3 when line +3 to -3
9-2 as RF
18-6 vs conf; 12-4 conf road
12-1 as conf HF < 28
10-7 at home
10-2 as dog
Idaho series fave 2-5
1-6 vs Pac 10
5-1 vs Mt West (BYU)
9-4-1 on grass (SJ St)
0-4 vs La Tech
8-0 final road (Nevada)
FRESNO STATE
1-8-1 off SU loss
6-11 as RF
3-8-2 as HF
3-10 vs good offence (score > 34 ppg)
12-4 as HD
1-6 as fave 3.5 to 10 pts
17-7 non-conf; 16-3 non-conf dog
8-2-1 home vs opp > .500
1-7 as fave off SU loss
15-4 vs Pac 10 (Wash)
1-4 vs SMU
Rice series vis 1-4
0-5 vs Hawaii; series host 7-2
HAWAII
3-11 vs good offence (avg > 6.25 ypp)
6-12 vs poor defence (allow > 450 ypg)
4-8 as RF
9-13 as HF
11-6 as HD
9-2 non-conf dog
3-13 as fave < 7
6-11 before bye (Rice)
7-14 after bye (Rice, Tulsa)
Fres St series host 9-3; 9-3-1 on grass
LOUISANA TECH
1-12 vs poor defence (allow > 425 ypg)
3-11 vs team with lose record
3-10 after road loss > 21 pts
4-11 after score > 37 pts
2-6-1 conf road
1-7 conf fave
1-7 non-conf dog
2-9-1 off ATS win
1-9 after score > 35 pts
Tulsa series host 5-0
4-0 vs Boise
0-6 season finale (Rice)
NEVADA
1-9 vs good offence (avg > 5.9 ypp)
8-15 vs team with lose record
8-3 as dog 3.5 to 10 pts
6-1 non-conf
12-7 after SU loss
16-2 when win SU
8-2 off DD SU loss
6-1 before bye (Buff)
RICE
11-1 when rush > 300 yards
7-14 vs good offence (score > 31 ppg)
19-5 as HD
11-2 off SU loss
12-2-1 conf host
11-0-1 as conf HD
11-1 in 1st of BB home (Hou); 1-8-1 in 1st line home
8-3 before bye (Houston, UTEP)
5-0 vs Hawaii
3-7 at Texas
SMU series host 7-1
6-1-1 vs Tulsa
2-5 vs UTEP
SAN JOSE STATE
13-1 when score > 28 pts
2-9 as dog 10.5 to 21 pts
18-1 vs poor teams (outscored by > 10 ppg)
8-1 as fave
7-1 as RF
7-13 as RD
10-2 off home conf loss
6-1 road open (SD St)
5-11 vs Mt West (SD St)
7-4 vs Stanf (0-3 L3)
Rice series host 4-0
1-7-1 after bye (Hawaii); 6-2 vs Haw (4-1 at Haw)
Nevada series fave 4-0
3-8 final home (Fres St)
SMU
1-11 vs good offence (score > 34 ppg)
7-57 when allow > 28 pts
2-12 after road loss
19-36 off ATS win
3-15-1 as RD <10
5-9 dog >20
6-11 conf road
7-3 vs TCU
3-8 in 1st of BB road (TCU, Boise)
3-6 in 2nd BB road (Okla St, Rice)
Rice series vis 1-6-1
10-5 after bye (Fres St); 7-1 as dog off bye
5-0 in HC game (Tulsa)
2-8 final home (Nevada)
3-6 vs UTEP; 9-3 final road
TULSA
4-13 vs good rush team (avg > 200 ypg)
6-13 as HF
16-30 off road loss
7-19 as RD
5-12-1 non-conf
3-7-1 vs Big 12
4-16 after 2 or more away (Navy, SJ St)
0-13-1 in 2nd of BB away (Okla St, La Tech)
Okla St series host 5-0
4-11 after bye (Boise)
1-6-1 vs Rice
3-6 vs SMU; series fave 5-1
2-7 final road (La Tech); 12-23 on grass
UTEP series host 2-10
UTEP
1-7 vs poor teams (win pct < 25%)
24-14 vs team with win record
3-12 as HD < 7 pts
9-16 as DD dog
10-5 as HF
8-1 as conf HF
2-11 vs opp < .333
3-16 as HD < 7
2-10 non-conf
4-12 on grass (Ariz St, Fres St, La Tech, SJ St)
5-1-1 vs Pac 10
4-9 before bye (Boise, SJ St)
3-10 vs New Mex St
4-10 after bye (New Mex St, Rice)
5-1 in HC game (Hawaii)
3-6 final home (SMU)
5-1 at Tulsa; 6-12 final road; series vis 10-2
