Wagering on All-Star Saturday Night

[Lumi]

Wagering on All-Star Saturday Night

Each year, the night before the All-Star game, a variety of exhibitions takes place that are fun for the fans at the arena as well as for the people watching at home. This has grown in popularity each and every year and a nice assortment of new faces always are good to see. This year?s event also has the rumor mill at TMZ-speed with LeBron James entering Dunk Contest at last minute. Once again we will take a stab at who the best bets may be in each challenge.

Slam Dunk (All odds at Sportsbook.com)

DeMar DeRozan +600
Eric Gordon +1000
Gerald Wallace +350
Nate Robinson +200
Shannon Brown +110

Prediction: This event has kind of turned into who can generate the best publicity to form preconceived notions. Brown and Robinson are proven commodities and DeRozan claims to have dunk to honor Michael Jackson called ?Thriller?. While the attention is focused on others, I?m calling for the big outright upset of Eric Gordon to bring something special and shock everyone as the longshot winner.

Three Point Shooting

Channing Frye +500
Chauncey Billups +300
Daequan Cook +275
Danilo Gallanari +400
Paul Pierce +400
Stephen Curry +300

Prediction: Cook?s the defending champion and the favorite, making him no fun to take. According to statistics, Pierce is the best shooter of the bunch when comes to accuracy, ranking sixth, with Curry ninth and Frye 10th. It would be fun to see the 6?11 Frye win it, since he would bring back memories of Mel Counts. (That?s REAL old school basketball - Google to learn more) Of any of these players that could get hot and stay hot, I?ll back Curry, having that Ray Allen steak in him.

Skills Challenge

Brandon Jennings +400
Deron Williams +200
Steve Nash +200
Derrick Rose +150

Prediction: Not really sure what this event means or what it actually proves. This has the feel of either something new or something old. Jennings is the fresh face and would like to create a buzz about himself, since let?s be honest, Milwaukee isn?t your media jungle, thus the rook can make people pay attention to him again just like when he skipped college for tour overseas to play hoops. Otherwise, Steve Nash is the old goat of the group and is your prideful Canadien and he would love to show the young wipper-snappers he can still do a few unique things on the hardwood. Nash is really tempting, but Jennings is my play.

HORSE

Kevin Durant -Even
Omri Casspi +225
Rajon Rondo +175

Prediction: This supposed was to unique and turn back the clock to yesteryear, however last year?s contest was boring. Moving it back indoor will help, as well as having a substantial audience. Rondo has the most flavor to his game and could pull the mild upset, but Durant can stand out at 35 feet and stroke it, something Rajon only dreams about. Durant repeats as winner.

 

[Lumi]

NBA skills competition picks and analysis

NBA skills competition picks and analysis

NBA skills competition picks and analysis

Sprite Slam Dunk Contest

Participants: Shannon Brown (+110), Nate Robinson (+200), Gerald Wallace (+350), DeMar DeRozan (+600), Eric Gordon (+1000)

Favorite: Brown has been a trending topic on Twitter more often than any NBA player outside of Kobe and LeBron for one reason and one reason only: ridiculous dunks.

?They call me the Human Helicopter, TNT legs, human pogo stick,? Brown said. ?They call me anything that's exciting or explosive.?

And why not? He already boasts this highlight reel, and even those dunks might seem like chump change after Saturday night.

Best value: DeRozan (+600), a high-flying Toronto Raptors rookie out of Southern Cal, must first win a Friday night dunk-off with Gordon just to get into the main competition. Rumor has it, however, that DeRozan has a Michael Jackson ?Thriller? tribute up his sleeve, so it sounds like he?s both athletic and creative. Plus, he wants it bad.

?I grew up watching dunk contests,? DeRozan said in his raptors.com blog. ?This has been a part of my NBA dream for a while.?

Foot Locker Three-Point Contest

Participants: Daequan Cook (+275), Stephen Curry (+300), Chauncey Billups (+300), Paul Pierce (+400), Danilo Gallinari (+400), Channing Frye (+550)

Favorite: Cook knows what it takes, having ended Jason Kopono?s two-year reign as three-point champion during last year?s All-Star weekend. The Miami Heat sharpshooter also showed he can handle pressure, draining the final moneyball to force overtime in the 2009 contest before disposing of Rashard Lewis 19-7. Cook is just 32-for-101 (32 percent) from downtown this season, but he should feel comfortable on Saturday night in a familiar situation.

Best value: Frye (+550) is far from the biggest name among the group of six, but he could be the sentimental favorite as a center in the three-point contest. This center, however, is completely deserving. Frye has already made 120 long-range shots this season (at a stellar 43 percent), equaling the exact total from his first four years in the league combined. He is on pace to become the first at his position to lead the NBA in three-pointers made.

Taco Bell Skills Challenge

Participants: Derrick Rose (+160), Steve Nash (+200), Deron Williams (+200), Brandon Jennings (+400)

Favorite: Rose is the defending champion and in case you don?t know what exactly the Skills Challenge entails, this is how the Chicago Bulls point guard won it last year.

A bit of a question mark surfaced on Wednesday night when Rose bruised his right hip against the Orlando Magic. An MRI was negative and Rose should be good to go for All-Star Weekend.

Still, Rose did not rush through last year?s Skills Challenge?instead focusing on fundamentals?and you can bet he won?t rush through it this time, either.

Best value: Nash (+200) won the 2005 Skills Challenge with a time of 25.8, which is now 0.3 seconds off the record set by Williams in 2008. The Phoenix Suns veteran is making his third appearance in the event (first since 2006), so he has more experience than his trio of competitors (Rose and Williams are participating for the second time, Jennings?a rookie?is making his debut).

Jennings (+400) has a chance because he is arguably the fastest of the four entrants, and if he really hightails his way through the course, one converted jump-shot on his first attempt could be all he needs. Still, the Milwaukee Buck is up against three former winners of the Skills Challenge, so his odds are long for a reason.

 

[Lumi]

Brown favorite to win Sprite Slam Dunk competition

Brown favorite to win Sprite Slam Dunk competition

Brown favorite to win Sprite Slam Dunk competition


Lakers high-flying guard Shannon Brown is favored to win the Sprite Slam Dunk contest on Saturday.

Brown, who is appearing in his first All-Star event, has been given odds of +100.

"The things he can to do are crazy," Pau Gasol said. "It's like he's running downhill and he takes off."

Knicks guard Nate Robinson, looking for a record three Slam Dunk titles, is getting +285 odds to win the competition, which is voted on by fans.

Gerald Wallace will look to earn his first Slam Dunk award after finishing runner-up in the 2002 contest. Wallace?s odds to win are +325.

A dunk-in between DeMar DeRozan and Eric Gordon occurred during halftime of the Rookie Challenge in order to determine the Slam Dunk?s fourth participant.

DeRozan was a heavy favorite of -400 over Gordon (+280) to win the dunk-in and emerged victorious.

DeRozan won the McDonald?s slam dunk contest when he was in high school and has been given +450 odds to win Saturday.

 

[Lumi]

NBA All-Star Betting: Texas Style

NBA All-Star Betting: Texas Style

NBA All-Star Betting: Texas Style

The best players of the NBA will be on hand for what should be the most star-studded event in the history of the league?s all-star festivities. The 2010 NBA All-star game, to be played at brand new Cowboys? Stadium in Arlington, TX, figures to be played in front of the largest crowd ever to watch a basketball game. Unfortunately, the game took a hit when one of the biggest of the stars, Kobe Bryant, who has been alternating MVP?s of the last four showcases with Lebron James, had to back out due to injury. For most bettors, this game and the entire weekend for that matter, offers a winter sabbatical from the grind of daily betting. Still, there is a line, total, and numerous props always available for this game, and many players will get involved ?just for fun?. This piece is dedicated to that group, as it is certainly more fun to win your all-star wagers. Read on as I go over a little background about the NBA?s All-Star Game, and reveal this week?s prediction, which utilizes the same strategy I have employed in winning the last three all-star games.

Last season, the West defeated the East 146-119 with Bryant of the Lakers stealing the MVP honors back away from James. The two of them have formed their own personal head-to-head dual in recent years, and the MVP honor for ?10 figures to come down to James and whether or not his team wins the game. I?m here to analyze that prospect as well as to dig up some key handicapping information from past all-star games in order to help you if you choose to partake in this year?s proceedings. The West opened as a 4-1/2 point favorite with a total of 262, but since the injury news, the line is down to West -3, total: 260.

James is the go-to guy for the East, and the rest of the starting five was going to be identical to a year ago, until Allen Iverson backed out. He was replaced by Rajon Rondo and is joined by Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic, Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics, and Dwyane Wade of the Miami Heat. On the bench for the East are all-stars Paul Pierce of the Boston Celtics, David Lee of the Knicks, Al Horford and Joe Johnson of the Hawks, Derrick Rose of the Bulls, Gerald Wallace of Charlotte, and Chris Bosh of the Raptors. Bosh was a starter in the 2007 game.

If you read this week?s Platinum Sheet, you would have seen that Iverson had a dragging effect on the East?s PVR total. However, since he left, the East figures to be in much better position.

The West All-Stars starters include Steve Nash of the Phoenix Suns, Dirk Nowitzki of the hometown Mavericks, Amare Stoudemire of the Phoenix Suns, Tim Duncan of the San Antonio Spurs and Carmelo Anthony of the Denver Nuggets. The bench of the West will include Zach Randolph of Memphis, Chauncey Billups of the Denver Nuggets, Chris Kaman of the LA Clippers, Derron Williams of the Utah Jazz, Jason Kidd of the Mavericks, Pau Gasol of the Los Angeles Lakers and Kevin Durant of Oklahoma City.

Coaching the East will be the Orlando Magic?s Stan Van Gundy, and the coach of the West will be the Denver Nuggets? George Karl. The West lost a lot with the injuries to the Hornets? Chris Paul, Bryant, and the Blazers? Brandon Roy, but still seems to boast a significant size advantage once again, with seven players boasting power forward size or greater. If anything, the speed could be the advantage of the East. Being in Dallas, the ?home court advantage? will again be favoring the West for the 7th straight season. Officially, the East hosted the ?07 game in Vegas, but the regional edge was to the West.

Last year?s championship run by the Lakers and the current standings in the league have many experts believing that any ground the East had gained in recent years has been lost. While very top heavy with its four elite teams (Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta), the rest of East owned a winning percentage below the TOP 10 in the West as of presstime. In terms of head-to-head records in non-conference play this season, through action on Thursday, the West was 8-games above .500 against the East. Compare that to last season, when the East was +20 games at that same point, and two years ago when the West was +43.

Considering the West has been favored in every NBA All-Star Game since ?01, it?s not a surprise that they are the chalk again for this game. Here are a few other trends that have formed in recent years in the NBA mid-season extravaganza:


The straight up winner has taken all but one of the last nine games ATS.

The Eastern Conference in on an all-star game run of 4-2 ATS, all as the underdog.

OVER the total has converted in three straight games and six of the L8.

Shaquille O?Neal, the ?04 MVP, is the only one of the L9 MVP?s not in the ?10 game.

So, who wins this year?s game? Who should we bet on? Most often, it comes down to these questions: 1) Which roster is better? And 2) Which team will play with more cohesiveness? While it is impossible for anyone to know enough about #2 other than pure speculation, it IS possible to evaluate the first question. This can be done both from perception and quantitatively.

I have used a unique formula to determine which roster was more talented in each of the last three games. It led me to predict a 133-123 win for the West a year ago. I?ll do the same this year.

The formula involves taking into account the popular Hollinger Ratings on ESPN.com used for evaluating Player Efficiency (PER). I?ve estimated the minutes the starters and reserves will play based upon recent games and have come up with a theoretical TOTAL TEAM EFFICIENCY RATING which I use to justify a pointspread play for Sunday?s game. Take a look.

Expected East Starters (MIN,PER,TOTAL)
* Rajon Rondo (Boston) - (20, 19.92, 398.4)
* Dwyane Wade (Miami) - (26, 27.59, 717.34)
* Kevin Garnett (Boston) - (19, 19.77, 375.63)
* LeBron James (Cleveland) - (28, 31.27, 875.56)
* Dwight Howard (Orlando) - (26, 23.1, 600.6)
East Reserves
David Lee (New York) - (16, 19.92, 318.72)
Derrick Rose (Chicago) - (17, 17.46, 296.82)
Chris Bosh (Toronto) - (20, 26.13, 522.6)
Al Horford (Atlanta) - (16, 18.84, 301.44)
Gerald Wallace (Charlotte) - (16, 19.36, 309.76)
Joe Johnson (Atlanta) - (18, 20.14, 362.52)
Paul Pierce (Boston) - (18, 18.77, 337.86)
Roster Total: 5417.25

Expected West Starters (MIN,PER,TOTAL)
* Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas) - (24, 23.11, 554.64)
* Steve Nash (Phoenix) - (21, 23.2, 487.2)
* Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix) - (24, 20.09, 482.16)
* Tim Duncan (San Antonio) - (21, 27.33, 573.93)
* Carmelo Anthony (Denver) - (26, 24.62, 640.12)
West Reserves
Zach Randolph (Memphis) - (16, 22.13, 354.08)
Pao Gasol (LA Lakers) - (17, 22.34, 379.78)
Jason Kidd (Dallas) - (15, 16.95, 254.25)
Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City) - (24, 25.33, 607.92)
Chris Kaman (LA Clippers) - (16, 17.3, 276.8)
Derron Williams (Utah) - (19, 20.63, 391.97)
Chauncey Billups (Denver) - (17, 21.42, 364.14)
Roster Total: 5366.99

According to the results, assuming the minutes played breakdown is somewhat near accurate (it was VERY close a year ago), the revised East roster is about 0.9% better in terms of cumulative player efficiency ratings. That?s a good sign for an underdog in an all-star contest, however is nowhere close to as big as last season, when the West was +4.2%.

I?d have to say that after all of the shuffling of rosters due to injury, the East shows the edge on the pointspread. I will make a bold call for the upset and not-so-bold call that James will be the MVP, playing extensive minutes and putting on a show in front of the record crowd. I also think the changes will result in a slower paced, under game. Prediction: East 128, West 124.

 

[highendlowlife]

good info on the all star gam illum thx as always