The Kentucky Derby is an animal all its own. Here are
some tips to get you started on your Derby picks.
1.
Favorites are No sure thing
There have only been two favorites since Spectacular
Bid won the Derby in 1979 to wear the garland of roses.
Fusaichi Pegasus was the favorite in 2000 and Smarty
Jones in 2004. So don?t get too scared of the favorite.
2.
importance oF Beyer speed Figures
Most Derby winners had posted at least a 100 Beyer
Speed Figure in a Derby prep race.
3.
try an exotic wager
With the big fields on Derby and Oaks day, you can win
just as much on an Exacta as you usually could on a
Trifecta, so if you are usually a Win-Place-Show bettor,
the Derby is a good time to try out an exotic bet.
4.
Look For a horse that can rate
If there are many horses in the race that are known for
being front runners, you might want to look for a horse
that can rate, or relax just off the pace and then run by
them all in the end. Horses with the ability to rate have
been proven to have the most success in the Derby.
5.
Look at Blue grass stakes winners
If you liked a horse going into the Blue Grass Stakes and it did not perform as well as expected, don?t despair. Only
2 Blue Grass winners have won the Derby since 1979
? Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Strike the Gold in 1991.
Over that same time frame, 5 Blue Grass also-rans have
won the Run for the Roses: Gato Del Sol (1982); Alysheba
(1987); Unbridled (1990); Sea Hero (1993) and Thunder
Gulch (1995). The main reason for this is the difference
between the track?s surfaces.
6.
stamina is important
It is important to figure out which contenders will have
the stamina to make the 1 1/4 mile distance. This is the
biggest question mark for this race because none of
the horses have yet to race that far. Most handicappers
attribute the horse?s pedigree and running style as the
primary signs of one that will get the ?Classic? distance.
7.
a Familiar surface
Give extra consideration to horses who have had success
on the Churchill Downs surface previously.
8.
choose a horse with a good Foundation
Horses should have run in at least three spring prep races
before the Derby to be prepared for the competition.
No amount of speed or good looks can make up for a lack
of seasoning in the Spring. For a horse to win the Derby,
it must have a good foundation.
9.
don?t Favor Breeders? cup JuveniLe
winners too much
Horses that are super good as 2-year-olds are usually not
competitive by the time Derby comes around. That?s why
some people tend to discard the winners of the Breeders?
Cup Juvenile. The B.C. Juvenile winner has never won
the Derby.
10. a good Jockey matters
Keep an eye on who the top jockeys choose to ride.
Jockeys like John Velazquez or Edgar Prado ride first call for
some of the most powerful stables. Also, jockeys with past
Derby success understand what it takes to succeed in a
20-horse field, especially with the amount of pressure that
comes with riding in the Derby.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/
some tips to get you started on your Derby picks.
1.
Favorites are No sure thing
There have only been two favorites since Spectacular
Bid won the Derby in 1979 to wear the garland of roses.
Fusaichi Pegasus was the favorite in 2000 and Smarty
Jones in 2004. So don?t get too scared of the favorite.
2.
importance oF Beyer speed Figures
Most Derby winners had posted at least a 100 Beyer
Speed Figure in a Derby prep race.
3.
try an exotic wager
With the big fields on Derby and Oaks day, you can win
just as much on an Exacta as you usually could on a
Trifecta, so if you are usually a Win-Place-Show bettor,
the Derby is a good time to try out an exotic bet.
4.
Look For a horse that can rate
If there are many horses in the race that are known for
being front runners, you might want to look for a horse
that can rate, or relax just off the pace and then run by
them all in the end. Horses with the ability to rate have
been proven to have the most success in the Derby.
5.
Look at Blue grass stakes winners
If you liked a horse going into the Blue Grass Stakes and it did not perform as well as expected, don?t despair. Only
2 Blue Grass winners have won the Derby since 1979
? Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Strike the Gold in 1991.
Over that same time frame, 5 Blue Grass also-rans have
won the Run for the Roses: Gato Del Sol (1982); Alysheba
(1987); Unbridled (1990); Sea Hero (1993) and Thunder
Gulch (1995). The main reason for this is the difference
between the track?s surfaces.
6.
stamina is important
It is important to figure out which contenders will have
the stamina to make the 1 1/4 mile distance. This is the
biggest question mark for this race because none of
the horses have yet to race that far. Most handicappers
attribute the horse?s pedigree and running style as the
primary signs of one that will get the ?Classic? distance.
7.
a Familiar surface
Give extra consideration to horses who have had success
on the Churchill Downs surface previously.
8.
choose a horse with a good Foundation
Horses should have run in at least three spring prep races
before the Derby to be prepared for the competition.
No amount of speed or good looks can make up for a lack
of seasoning in the Spring. For a horse to win the Derby,
it must have a good foundation.
9.
don?t Favor Breeders? cup JuveniLe
winners too much
Horses that are super good as 2-year-olds are usually not
competitive by the time Derby comes around. That?s why
some people tend to discard the winners of the Breeders?
Cup Juvenile. The B.C. Juvenile winner has never won
the Derby.
10. a good Jockey matters
Keep an eye on who the top jockeys choose to ride.
Jockeys like John Velazquez or Edgar Prado ride first call for
some of the most powerful stables. Also, jockeys with past
Derby success understand what it takes to succeed in a
20-horse field, especially with the amount of pressure that
comes with riding in the Derby.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/
