- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
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The Blazers were an early surprise this season, going 25-7 during November and December, but since the new year they have cooled off considerably and are just two games above .500 since January, which is a league worst for current playoff teams. This is not very surprising, since not only do they lead the NBA in minutes for their starters, but their style of play is also unsustainable. Reliance on jump shooting can make teams super hot for awhile, but over the long run, it is difficult to maintain consistency, especially when you are taxing your most important players. The Blazer bench is the 5th most inefficient bench in the league, and with the injury to Williams, their best bench player, and starter Aldridge, this is seriously problematic for the Blazers. In their last game without Aldridge, their other four usual starters averaged 39.3 minutes.
Now, they return home off a five game road trip where they really struggled. The perceived advantage of playing in the Rose Garden may not help them much tonight, as over the last three seasons they have really struggled coming home after a road trip of at least three games, going 1-11 ATS.
On the other side, the Warriors have been playing good ball since the new year, posting a record of 21-13. Defensively, they have really stepped up their efforts, and overall this season their defense is third in points per possession allowed. Over the course of the season, the Warriors have averaged 5.7 more points in the paint than the Blazers. Defensively, the Warriors are 8th in the league in paint defense, while the Blazers are second to last. The Warriors have outscored the Blazers in the paint in four out of the last five meetings. This suggests that the Warriors will win this statistical category tonight, especially without the length of Aldridge to assist in offensive rebounding putbacks and defense. The Blazers are 3rd in the league in offensive rebounds per game, but Aldridge contributes 2.4 a game, and on the other side, the Warriors are third in the league in defensive rebounding. Although others will compensate for Aldridge somewhat, he contributes 11 rebounds per game, and the Warriors should also be able to win this category. In efficiency differential, Aldridge is the most important power forward in the league, and the Blazers will miss him tonight. Road favorites that win both points in the paint and the rebounding battle have covered the spread at a rate of 72.1% over the last five seasons, winning by an average margin of 10.24 points per game.
The Blazers have won a lot of games by simply outscoring opponents, and defensively they struggle, especially against teams with good back courts. Over the last two seasons, the Blazers are just 9-37 straight up against the top ten teams with the best efficiency differential backcourts. The Blazers rank 24th in points per possession allowed for their pick and roll defense this season, and second to last in isolation plays. The Warriors can take advantage of these weaknesses in tonight.
In games where Curry has played more than 25 minutes this season, he has won the efficiency battle at his position 44 times, and lost it 15. On the other side, Lillard has won 27 and lost 29. When Curry wins this battle, the Warriors are 29-15 and 20-8 on the road. Curry has won both battles against Lillard this season. He embraces the big games and the spotlight, and while Lillard is a great guard, Curry should put his mark on the game tonight.
Over the last six seasons, home dogs with a win percentage greater than their opponent and over 60% are just 8-24 ATS (25.0%), with an average margin of defeat of 6.81 points. Even though the line is skewed a bit because of some injuries for the Blazers, it is still telling that a very good team can be getting points at home, from a perceived lesser team. The Blazers are also coming off a win, while the Warriors are off two losses. This further skews perception, as teams playing as a home dog off a road win, against a team off a home loss are just 7-25 straight up, losing by an average margin of 8.41 points per game, and 8-24 (25.0%) ATS over the last three seasons. In this same time period, the Warriors have been one of the top three road teams ATS. Playing on the road coming off a loss, they are 35-17-1 ATS (67.3%), and 19-6-1 ATS (76.0%) coming off two consecutive losses playing on the road. The Warriors are only a few games behind Portland in the playoff race, and tonight is a big game for both these teams, but I like the Warriors to come out with the victory and cover.
I took the Warriors -2 tonight
Good luck!
Now, they return home off a five game road trip where they really struggled. The perceived advantage of playing in the Rose Garden may not help them much tonight, as over the last three seasons they have really struggled coming home after a road trip of at least three games, going 1-11 ATS.
On the other side, the Warriors have been playing good ball since the new year, posting a record of 21-13. Defensively, they have really stepped up their efforts, and overall this season their defense is third in points per possession allowed. Over the course of the season, the Warriors have averaged 5.7 more points in the paint than the Blazers. Defensively, the Warriors are 8th in the league in paint defense, while the Blazers are second to last. The Warriors have outscored the Blazers in the paint in four out of the last five meetings. This suggests that the Warriors will win this statistical category tonight, especially without the length of Aldridge to assist in offensive rebounding putbacks and defense. The Blazers are 3rd in the league in offensive rebounds per game, but Aldridge contributes 2.4 a game, and on the other side, the Warriors are third in the league in defensive rebounding. Although others will compensate for Aldridge somewhat, he contributes 11 rebounds per game, and the Warriors should also be able to win this category. In efficiency differential, Aldridge is the most important power forward in the league, and the Blazers will miss him tonight. Road favorites that win both points in the paint and the rebounding battle have covered the spread at a rate of 72.1% over the last five seasons, winning by an average margin of 10.24 points per game.
The Blazers have won a lot of games by simply outscoring opponents, and defensively they struggle, especially against teams with good back courts. Over the last two seasons, the Blazers are just 9-37 straight up against the top ten teams with the best efficiency differential backcourts. The Blazers rank 24th in points per possession allowed for their pick and roll defense this season, and second to last in isolation plays. The Warriors can take advantage of these weaknesses in tonight.
In games where Curry has played more than 25 minutes this season, he has won the efficiency battle at his position 44 times, and lost it 15. On the other side, Lillard has won 27 and lost 29. When Curry wins this battle, the Warriors are 29-15 and 20-8 on the road. Curry has won both battles against Lillard this season. He embraces the big games and the spotlight, and while Lillard is a great guard, Curry should put his mark on the game tonight.
Over the last six seasons, home dogs with a win percentage greater than their opponent and over 60% are just 8-24 ATS (25.0%), with an average margin of defeat of 6.81 points. Even though the line is skewed a bit because of some injuries for the Blazers, it is still telling that a very good team can be getting points at home, from a perceived lesser team. The Blazers are also coming off a win, while the Warriors are off two losses. This further skews perception, as teams playing as a home dog off a road win, against a team off a home loss are just 7-25 straight up, losing by an average margin of 8.41 points per game, and 8-24 (25.0%) ATS over the last three seasons. In this same time period, the Warriors have been one of the top three road teams ATS. Playing on the road coming off a loss, they are 35-17-1 ATS (67.3%), and 19-6-1 ATS (76.0%) coming off two consecutive losses playing on the road. The Warriors are only a few games behind Portland in the playoff race, and tonight is a big game for both these teams, but I like the Warriors to come out with the victory and cover.
I took the Warriors -2 tonight
Good luck!
