Watching the Lines
By Bodog
How did Warren Buffett become one of the richest men in the world? Timing. Buffett (estimated 2010 net worth: $47 billion) was a disciple of economist Benjamin Graham, considered the father of value investing. Graham taught Buffett at Columbia University to avoid the herd mentality of the marketplace and focus on stocks that are available at discounted prices. Anyone who wants to make a buck from online sports gambling would be wise to do the same ? and it doesn?t take an Ivy League degree to figure out.
Timing is as much a part of betting on sports as it is with the stock market. As we touched on last week, watching the betting lines fluctuate and picking your team at the right price is one of the pillars of sharp money management. The NFL happens to be one of the most volatile betting sports there is because the first odds go up on the board nearly a week in advance of the games themselves. A line could move dozens of times in that window of opportunity.
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Let?s take an example from the NFL betting lines from Week 6, when the New York Jets faced the Denver Broncos at Mile High. We opened that game on Tuesday with the Jets as 3-point favorites and the juice at ?120. Early action was on the Jets, so on Wednesday, we bumped up the juice to ?125, then ?130 the following day. Each of these small moves should be thought of as money coming in or going out of your pocket. Would you rather have paid $120 or $130 to win $100 on the Jets last week?
The lines started moving more aggressively on Friday ? as they often do. The concept of the 9-to-5 workplace might be a little old school, but the fact remains that millions of casual football bettors get off work on Friday, and that?s when they start opening up their wallets. In this case, most of the ?squares? were on the Jets along with the sharps, moving them to ?3.5 by Saturday and ?4 just before kickoff.
Never underestimate the power of the half-point. As it turned out, the Jets beat the Broncos 24-20 on a late touchdown. Those late bettors who had New York ?4 may have been relieved to get the push, but they were nowhere near as happy as those who bought the Jets earlier in the week. Timing is everything.
Those half-points get even more valuable when the pointspread is sitting on a ?magic number? like three or seven. Because NFL is primarily a game of field goals and converted touchdowns, the most common winning margins are three and seven points. Roughly one in six games is decided by a field goal. The move from Jets ?3 to Jets ?3.5 could easily have sent millions of dollars flowing in a different direction had New York won by only three points. Being able to tweak the juice instead from ?120 to ?130 helped the bookmakers respond more accurately to the lighter action that came in before the weekend.
Sometimes it does benefit you to wait until the last minute. If you felt like the Broncos were your team last week, then certainly you would have been better off waiting as long as possible to see if you?d be able to get them at +4. But from a value betting perspective, your best time to buy is often earlier in the week. The lines are at their softest at the open, before they?ve had a chance to react to the marketplace. Early action tends to be sharp action ? again, most of the squares are busy with other things on a Tuesday.
The more attention you pay to the NFL betting lines, the more likely you?ll be able to jump on the right team at the right price. This isn?t something that has to take up too much brain power, either. Simply check in on a semi-regular basis at Bodog Sports and take a peek at the odds list. Keep track of the prices; with practice, you?ll be able to anticipate the market and time your purchases to maximum effect.
By Bodog
How did Warren Buffett become one of the richest men in the world? Timing. Buffett (estimated 2010 net worth: $47 billion) was a disciple of economist Benjamin Graham, considered the father of value investing. Graham taught Buffett at Columbia University to avoid the herd mentality of the marketplace and focus on stocks that are available at discounted prices. Anyone who wants to make a buck from online sports gambling would be wise to do the same ? and it doesn?t take an Ivy League degree to figure out.
Timing is as much a part of betting on sports as it is with the stock market. As we touched on last week, watching the betting lines fluctuate and picking your team at the right price is one of the pillars of sharp money management. The NFL happens to be one of the most volatile betting sports there is because the first odds go up on the board nearly a week in advance of the games themselves. A line could move dozens of times in that window of opportunity.
Advertisement
Let?s take an example from the NFL betting lines from Week 6, when the New York Jets faced the Denver Broncos at Mile High. We opened that game on Tuesday with the Jets as 3-point favorites and the juice at ?120. Early action was on the Jets, so on Wednesday, we bumped up the juice to ?125, then ?130 the following day. Each of these small moves should be thought of as money coming in or going out of your pocket. Would you rather have paid $120 or $130 to win $100 on the Jets last week?
The lines started moving more aggressively on Friday ? as they often do. The concept of the 9-to-5 workplace might be a little old school, but the fact remains that millions of casual football bettors get off work on Friday, and that?s when they start opening up their wallets. In this case, most of the ?squares? were on the Jets along with the sharps, moving them to ?3.5 by Saturday and ?4 just before kickoff.
Never underestimate the power of the half-point. As it turned out, the Jets beat the Broncos 24-20 on a late touchdown. Those late bettors who had New York ?4 may have been relieved to get the push, but they were nowhere near as happy as those who bought the Jets earlier in the week. Timing is everything.
Those half-points get even more valuable when the pointspread is sitting on a ?magic number? like three or seven. Because NFL is primarily a game of field goals and converted touchdowns, the most common winning margins are three and seven points. Roughly one in six games is decided by a field goal. The move from Jets ?3 to Jets ?3.5 could easily have sent millions of dollars flowing in a different direction had New York won by only three points. Being able to tweak the juice instead from ?120 to ?130 helped the bookmakers respond more accurately to the lighter action that came in before the weekend.
Sometimes it does benefit you to wait until the last minute. If you felt like the Broncos were your team last week, then certainly you would have been better off waiting as long as possible to see if you?d be able to get them at +4. But from a value betting perspective, your best time to buy is often earlier in the week. The lines are at their softest at the open, before they?ve had a chance to react to the marketplace. Early action tends to be sharp action ? again, most of the squares are busy with other things on a Tuesday.
The more attention you pay to the NFL betting lines, the more likely you?ll be able to jump on the right team at the right price. This isn?t something that has to take up too much brain power, either. Simply check in on a semi-regular basis at Bodog Sports and take a peek at the odds list. Keep track of the prices; with practice, you?ll be able to anticipate the market and time your purchases to maximum effect.
