As much as I want to pull the trigger on San Diego, I just can't do it. I see alot of guys on them and I certainly think that's the only bettable side. But, there are three things that concern me: Zaga owns San Diego. They've won 9-straight against USD. Secondly, I was very impressed with Gonzaga in last night's game against St Mary's. Granted, St Mary's is no powerhouse, but the Gaels came into that game full of confidence only to be met with a swagger from Zaga that has, for the most part, been missing for most of the year. Lastly, during their game with UCF, the Dons went to a zone defense for a period and San Diego seemed very confused by it. Zaga did this same thing in their 2nd matchup this season with almost the same results.
Also of note: If the Zags lose tonight, they are no cinch to make the field of 64, although my guess is that they do. I'll be rooting for you guys that are on San Diego for sure. If the Toreros are going to break their funk against Zaga, this is the game. USD playing well and with alot of confidence and Gonzo is missing the speed of the teams they've fielded the last few seasons.
With that being said, I believe the strongest wager on this game is the Over. I have this game in the 155-160 range. Zaga still likes to push the ball up the court and USD has put up 72 or more points in 9 of their last 10 outings. San Diego will most certainly improve on their 12/24 performance from the FT line in their game against USF and both Few and Holland play games out to the end. If this is a close game as expected, we may see 12-15 points in the last minute or so.
Zaga/San Diego OVER 143
*sentimental homer monopoly money play on USD +2- to +3
