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Master Capper

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Jan 12, 2002
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I have no idea if this guy is partisan or if he is just a good guy trying to run a honest website but I found the site to be a good read. This guy takes all of the polls each day and through some type of formula merges them to come up with a tally for each state and then updates the electoral college numbers. Even if you disagree with his numbers he does provide some links in his news section that gives some interesting perspectives on the election and trends.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/
 

Master Capper

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Jan 12, 2002
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According to this site if the election occured today Kerry would have 291 votes in the electoral college and Bush 247 votes! While I wouldnt mind seeing a change in leadership this would kill my props plays on Bush but I still strongly believe that Kerry has less than a 20% chance of winning.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Jul 13, 1999
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Think he is off base on quite a few MC ---the most notables is I would say
Mich is definately strong Kerry-
Fla I think weak Bush
New Mexico up for grabs

I do believe this election is still close---and think Bush is doing better in popular vote than electorial---New York and CA are huge spots in electorial college
 

Master Capper

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Jan 12, 2002
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Dog,


Whats going on with the election in Tucky with Bunning? I saw both larger newspapers backed the challenger and I thought Bunning was a legend down there, didnt he play pro baseball?
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Jul 13, 1999
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MC I don't know how that will play out. Bunning been running some pretty neg ads last month but haven't seen the 1st ad (tv)from opponant but lots of campaign signs.
To be honest I do not follow Ky politics muchl.
I do know the teachers and other gov employees are all over the govenors ass because of their new health care package and I think he might repeal it. He was 1st republican gov in Ky in years and I don't like his chances of being re elected when term is up.

back to Bunning here are a couple of items that may be of interest to you

Ky-Sen: Bunning is losing his mind
by kos
Tue Oct 12th, 2004 at 03:54:45 GMT

Big rumor making the rounds in Kentucky -- Republican Sen. Bunning is increasingly ill and unable to carry out the duties of his office. As soon as he is reelected (assuming he is reelected), he will resign office, and KY's unpopular Republican governor, Ernie Fletcher, will appoint himself to the seat.
Salon examines the evidence in support of the rumor.

This apparent fear of the spontaneous has spurred rumors in Kentucky that Bunning, a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame, is suffering from some sort of dementia, perhaps Alzheimer's. Bunning has declined to release his medical records. But until now, there was nothing hard to suggest that the one-term Republican senator was anything but a crotchety, occasionally confused, or arrogant old man.
On Monday, however, Bunning -- who turns 73 this month -- abruptly retreated behind yet another barrier, in an action so inexplicable that it appears likely to bring the rumors about his health, now referred to obliquely in Kentucky news reports, into open discussion. It may also mark a turning point in a race that, against all expectations, has been tightening recently.

Saying falsely that he was needed in Washington this week for Senate votes, Bunning tore up his own carefully crafted debate agreement and refused to return to Kentucky on Monday for his one scheduled debate with Mongiardo. It was to have taken place at 2:30 p.m. Monday in the Lexington, Ky., studio of WKYT-TV. Instead, Bunning insisted on "debating" via satellite from the womblike conditions of the Republican National Committee headquarters studio in Washington.

The senator refused to allow a member of the Kentucky media to be present at the RNC studio to monitor whether Bunning was receiving assistance with his answers, according to Mongiardo campaign manager Kim Geveden and WKYT news director Jim Ogle. And Bunning refused to engage reporters via satellite in a previously agreed upon post-debate news conference, insisting instead that his 15 minutes of answering questions occur by telephone, without accompanying video footage.

"The people of Kentucky are very smart. They can put two and two together," Bill Garmer, chairman of the Kentucky Democratic Party, told me by telephone Tuesday.

Certainly a bizarre situation. Bunning has been clearly losing if.
Until recently, the Kentucky Senate race was shaping up to be an easy home run for Bunning [...]
Then, slowly, the dynamic began to change. At first, Bunning's gruffness with reporters, odd statements and apparent discomfort with public appearances merely sparked gossip. Then the incidents began making news. In February, he "shocked many Louisville civic leaders," as the Louisville Courier-Journal put it, by declaring at a chamber of commerce luncheon that one of two new bridges the city had expected to build with federal funds would be delayed because northern Kentucky needed the money more. Not only was Bunning's statement factually wrong, but it forced the Louisville-area Republican who had worked to secure the bridge funding, U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, to scramble to reassure business leaders. Bunning was "confused" and "mistaken," she told reporters. Bunning at first denied he had made the remark, then admitted he had after he was told his talk had been recorded [...]

But August was the real meltdown month for Bunning. At an annual Kentucky political event called Fancy Farm, Bunning was captured on videotape stalking off from a TV reporter after a Mongiardo supporter waved a campaign sign in view of the camera. The reporter gaped in surprise, her microphone still extended, as Bunning disappeared into the crowd [...]

Then Bunning's security detail became a campaign issue when the Paducah Sun, citing local police sources, said in August that the senator was concerned about the possibility of an al-Qaida attack. Bunning warned ominously in an interview with a Paducah television station: "There may be strangers among us." When pressed, the Bunning campaign said it had requested extra security for Bunning upon the advice of the Senate Sergeant at Arms Office. It turned out, though, that the sergeant at arms had simply suggested that senators in general remain alert. There had been no specific threat against Bunning.

There is more, lots more. Bunning is completely off his rocker, and the Mongiardo campaign is aggressively working the angle. The "debate", for example, is turning out to be a disaster of epic proportions for Bunning:
The debate was taped Monday and will air Wednesday evening, but only in Lexington and in Bowling Green and Hazard, where WKYT has sister stations; the rest of Kentucky will have to read about it in newspapers.
This incident will surely dog Bunning in the last three weeks of the campaign. In his closing and opening statements, the senator's eyes appeared to be scanning text, prompting reporters to ask in the post-debate news conference whether he was using a teleprompter. Bunning declined to answer, saying only that he has stuck to the rules, apparently referring to the original agreement that he himself violated by appearing from Washington. That agreement said the candidates could use "notes" during the debate.

And there was no reason for Bunning to be in DC. He claimed he had to go to the capital for some "important votes". Turns out that was a lie, since the Senate was in recess during the week. Positively bizarre.
This is a race we may yet take. Amazing.

Update: I screwed up the paraphrasing on the Senate schedule. Here's the exact text, which still raises questions about Bunning's DC excuse:

WKYT news director Ogle told me that the Bunning campaign had phoned the station on Saturday saying the senator would be tied up in Washington all week and unable to travel back to Kentucky for Monday's 2:30 p.m. debate taping. (The "tied up in Washington" explanation turned out to be a lie: The Senate's last recorded vote of the week took place at 12:30 p.m. on Monday. There are no more recorded votes for the week, the Senate Republican cloakroom confirmed.)
So the Senate was in session Monday, but its business is finished until after November. Bunning isn't "tied up" in DC anymore, and the debate could've been rescheduled for later this week. Sorry for the mistake.
Also, Bunning denied the rumors during the debate, and attacked Mongiardo for "spreading rumors". He also released letters from two physicians saying he was in "excellent health". Of course, he'll need a lot more than that to explain his erratic and bizarre behavior.
 
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