wed
- Thread starter RAYMOND
- Start date
Hey, Ray. Hope Vegas was great. I had a good weekend. Thanks so much for recommending scorewatch. That guy is incredible. I'm up a great deal since learning to use the predictions and other factors better to find where to play my money. I just have one question, and it's regarding the NBA Totals. It seems to me that they're always a bit high and hardly ever project and under play. I've found that if the projection's about 7% or more over the total then it's a good over bet, but if it's less than that then it's pretty tight of a number. Do you play NBA totals often and how do you go about it? I try to find the nice trends like Charlotte had a few weeks ago but the lines are better now for them. Thanks
yes noitce that myself , take alook at the spur - wash over , i look for 10 % over more
that go here
http://www.covers.com/pageloader/pageloader.aspx?page=/data/NBA/matchups/g5_summary_8.html
check here
http://vegasexperts.com/articles/nbatrends.asp
alway check off and def last 5 games
see if up tick or down tick
watch the lines movement also
something its a feel
hang in there your doing good
sometime we lean from losing
great. thanks again! i love this place that everyone here is willing to help each other, everyone trying to take the books' $. i'm hoping to get confident enough to start posting my plays so I can track how I do vs. the regulars on here. btw, who you taking UNC/Duke tonight? I'm a Duke fan, I can't bet it. Except perhaps the total. 
What you think there? Can UNC push it enough to get to 142?
What you think there? Can UNC push it enough to get to 142?
just my 2 cents worth, i think UNC will roll Duke. as for the total, risky taking the over and risky taking the under, i simply like UNC.
Ray, you're thinking about the over in the SA/WAS matchup? I see the projected at 216 but SA has played 9 of L10 under 196, the only one over that was Memphis, and the last SA/WAS matchup was 173, when they held Arenas to 17.
are these the trends that are so convincing?
San Antonio: 22-4 Over after a loss by 15+ points
Washington: 1-9 ATS off a home win scoring 110+ points
are these the trends that are so convincing?
San Antonio: 22-4 Over after a loss by 15+ points
Washington: 1-9 ATS off a home win scoring 110+ points
With WASH allowing so many at home, SA should score more than 97, and WASH should do better than the spurs avg of 90.2 PA. combined with their 22-4 Over after a 15+ point loss... and they tend to go OVER more OTR. i'm thinking it should be in the neighborhood of 220.
i also think i'm missing something. but i am a newbie trying to learn, and i'm willing to admit that.
then again, SA is the last team to hold WASH under 99, it was 80, but it was in SA, and SA has scored less 3 games in a row, last time they did that they put up 112 on Memphis (whose defense is terrible--kind of like WASH)... and teams seem to put up more points and play up to WASH in scoring so yeah, i'm definitely saying over.
