il(legitimate) past-postings:
45-37 +9.25
You may have noticed that I don't like to do things the easy way (save for the dishes, cleaning, and ... you get the point), but I'm gonna pretend to try and simplify this. Hope it doesn't rust.
P.OPS=preferred on-base + slugging percentage: weighted towards starting pitcher's arm and his expected innings pitched, with the balance a flat ops.
e.g. Rocks facing lefty starter, expected to go about 6 IP:
...6*919(vs left) + 3*794(overall)
...-----------------------------------------
...........................9
=877
--slight adjustments made if team is better home/away, team is on a significant hitting streak or slump, or if key members of lineup are disabled or not 100%
PITCH=combo of (my own) starting pitcher rating combined with (m.o.) bullpen rating.
e.g. (very) solid starter, expected to go about 7 IP, with a poor bullpen behind him, might look like this:
...7*90 + 2*65
...-----------------
............9
=84
--the general ratings I keep vary start to start, and will be further adjusted based on how he's fared vs opposing team, home vs away descrepancies, and other key factors such as current biorhythmic patterns.
(yes, I'm not not kidding)
(bio stuff only ... you read that recent article at Covers? ... who am I to rain on someone else's placebo effect?)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Braves(Ortiz)@Phillies(Millwood)
P.OPS: Braves: 826, Phils: 742
PITCH: Braves: 75, Phils: 84
--Braves slightly down past 10 vs R (.267, .279 year) while Phils slightly up past 10 vs R (.257 vs .248 year). Home/road #'s doesn't swing this much (Braves .272 road vs R, Phils .259 home vs R). Ortiz solid, if unspectacular, vs Phils in career (2-3, 4.02 era, 1 CG in 9 starts -- 1-2 w/6.56 era @Veterens). Millwood, rocked in his last @Reds, will face old team for 1st time.
--Call is Philly 55-45
--Price: Philly -135 (PV -3)
PASS
--HP Culbreth not a major factor for total (8), but over is 8-6 on season, called a May 28th Ortiz 15-3 victory over Reds, @Turner, and many of his overs have been w/crap on mound; seems friendly towards lefties this year (Hampton, Daal, D.Davis, W.Franklin all had good games w/Culbreth).
Could be a tight one, but # too low for me.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mets(Leiter-L)@Marlins(Penny)
P.OPS: Mets: 730, Marlins: 791
PITCH: Mets: 79, Marlins: 75
--Leiter 10-4, 3.73 era, in 15 starts vs fish (21-8 w/2.51 era overall @Pro Player). PENNY IS 0-6 VS METS, 6.12 ERA IN 9 STARTS. Penny is coming off of a solid 7 inning shutout performance @Texas (5 h, 4BB, 5K), and has been great in 5 of his past 6 -- often just completing 6 IP, bullpen behind him is unspectacular, but not the worst. Mets .276 past 10 vs R, compared to .252 on year (vs r). Fish .341 past 10 vs L, compared to .287 on year(L). Home/away not major, but fish doing a little better on road.
--I'm a sucker for Leiter, and Penny has stunk vs Mets, but still have to favour fish here as Penny has been solid and fish have been smoking dutchies ... er...lefties.
Call is Marlins 55-45
Price: Marlins -125 (PV -1)
PASS
--still tempted by Mets - Leiter ALSO blanked Rangers last time out (6 IP, 8h,2bb,6k) ... was roughed up previous 2, though, vs M's and (sorta) vs Braves.
--HP Diaz, while not the smallest zone in the world, is not the best for under plays. These 2 clubs have already played 2 very low-scoring affairs, however, and there is no way I touch the over here.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cubs(Wood)@Reds(Haynes)
P.OPS: Cubs: 728, Reds: 772
PITCH: Cubs: 89, Reds: 72
--Wood not terrible in last @Jays, a game I saw; 3 of the runs came on HR's to lead off innings, and he did strike out 8 in 6 IP (2 BB). He's a solid 8-2 in 12 vs Cinci, w/2.75 era and 104 K's in 78.2 IP, though Boone, Dunn and Kearns have all HR'ed off him. Haynes 3-4 w/6.00 era in 11 vs Cubs. Sosa just 6/24 (.250) w/no HR's, so may not enjoy return. Haynes has looked fine in past 4, since coming off DL, and looked even better in last - a CG victory over Philly, in the 15-1 fiasco over Millwood & friends. Several other Cubs bats have hit him hard, and Cubs .251 past 10 vs R no different than their .250 on season (.262 road, all vs R). Reds still prefer the HR, and are .279 past 10, .251 year, and .257 at home vs R.
--Call is Cubs 60-40
Price: Cubs -160 (!!ratsen fratsen!!) (PV -2)
PASS in anguish
--HP Kellogg an even 7-7 o/u, but zone is tight and over prevails for his career. Never called Wood, but 3 starts with Haynes on the hill have all gone over ... were in 2000 and '01. Over 9 with Wood on hill is pass for me, especially with Sammy not expected to be an immediate cure-all for Cubs offense. I'd consider under with a different ump. 3 of past 4 and 4 of past 6 have been under, mind you, but May 12th Prior@Rusch match saw Chi winning 11-5 (total was 7.5)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time Out
(killer Walsh tune)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When you speak your mind out never say what you planned
(Joe Walsh-So What?-Time Out)
45-37 +9.25
You may have noticed that I don't like to do things the easy way (save for the dishes, cleaning, and ... you get the point), but I'm gonna pretend to try and simplify this. Hope it doesn't rust.
P.OPS=preferred on-base + slugging percentage: weighted towards starting pitcher's arm and his expected innings pitched, with the balance a flat ops.
e.g. Rocks facing lefty starter, expected to go about 6 IP:
...6*919(vs left) + 3*794(overall)
...-----------------------------------------
...........................9
=877
--slight adjustments made if team is better home/away, team is on a significant hitting streak or slump, or if key members of lineup are disabled or not 100%
PITCH=combo of (my own) starting pitcher rating combined with (m.o.) bullpen rating.
e.g. (very) solid starter, expected to go about 7 IP, with a poor bullpen behind him, might look like this:
...7*90 + 2*65
...-----------------
............9
=84
--the general ratings I keep vary start to start, and will be further adjusted based on how he's fared vs opposing team, home vs away descrepancies, and other key factors such as current biorhythmic patterns.
(yes, I'm not not kidding)
(bio stuff only ... you read that recent article at Covers? ... who am I to rain on someone else's placebo effect?)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Braves(Ortiz)@Phillies(Millwood)
P.OPS: Braves: 826, Phils: 742
PITCH: Braves: 75, Phils: 84
--Braves slightly down past 10 vs R (.267, .279 year) while Phils slightly up past 10 vs R (.257 vs .248 year). Home/road #'s doesn't swing this much (Braves .272 road vs R, Phils .259 home vs R). Ortiz solid, if unspectacular, vs Phils in career (2-3, 4.02 era, 1 CG in 9 starts -- 1-2 w/6.56 era @Veterens). Millwood, rocked in his last @Reds, will face old team for 1st time.
--Call is Philly 55-45
--Price: Philly -135 (PV -3)
PASS
--HP Culbreth not a major factor for total (8), but over is 8-6 on season, called a May 28th Ortiz 15-3 victory over Reds, @Turner, and many of his overs have been w/crap on mound; seems friendly towards lefties this year (Hampton, Daal, D.Davis, W.Franklin all had good games w/Culbreth).
Could be a tight one, but # too low for me.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mets(Leiter-L)@Marlins(Penny)
P.OPS: Mets: 730, Marlins: 791
PITCH: Mets: 79, Marlins: 75
--Leiter 10-4, 3.73 era, in 15 starts vs fish (21-8 w/2.51 era overall @Pro Player). PENNY IS 0-6 VS METS, 6.12 ERA IN 9 STARTS. Penny is coming off of a solid 7 inning shutout performance @Texas (5 h, 4BB, 5K), and has been great in 5 of his past 6 -- often just completing 6 IP, bullpen behind him is unspectacular, but not the worst. Mets .276 past 10 vs R, compared to .252 on year (vs r). Fish .341 past 10 vs L, compared to .287 on year(L). Home/away not major, but fish doing a little better on road.
--I'm a sucker for Leiter, and Penny has stunk vs Mets, but still have to favour fish here as Penny has been solid and fish have been smoking dutchies ... er...lefties.
Call is Marlins 55-45
Price: Marlins -125 (PV -1)
PASS
--still tempted by Mets - Leiter ALSO blanked Rangers last time out (6 IP, 8h,2bb,6k) ... was roughed up previous 2, though, vs M's and (sorta) vs Braves.
--HP Diaz, while not the smallest zone in the world, is not the best for under plays. These 2 clubs have already played 2 very low-scoring affairs, however, and there is no way I touch the over here.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cubs(Wood)@Reds(Haynes)
P.OPS: Cubs: 728, Reds: 772
PITCH: Cubs: 89, Reds: 72
--Wood not terrible in last @Jays, a game I saw; 3 of the runs came on HR's to lead off innings, and he did strike out 8 in 6 IP (2 BB). He's a solid 8-2 in 12 vs Cinci, w/2.75 era and 104 K's in 78.2 IP, though Boone, Dunn and Kearns have all HR'ed off him. Haynes 3-4 w/6.00 era in 11 vs Cubs. Sosa just 6/24 (.250) w/no HR's, so may not enjoy return. Haynes has looked fine in past 4, since coming off DL, and looked even better in last - a CG victory over Philly, in the 15-1 fiasco over Millwood & friends. Several other Cubs bats have hit him hard, and Cubs .251 past 10 vs R no different than their .250 on season (.262 road, all vs R). Reds still prefer the HR, and are .279 past 10, .251 year, and .257 at home vs R.
--Call is Cubs 60-40
Price: Cubs -160 (!!ratsen fratsen!!) (PV -2)
PASS in anguish
--HP Kellogg an even 7-7 o/u, but zone is tight and over prevails for his career. Never called Wood, but 3 starts with Haynes on the hill have all gone over ... were in 2000 and '01. Over 9 with Wood on hill is pass for me, especially with Sammy not expected to be an immediate cure-all for Cubs offense. I'd consider under with a different ump. 3 of past 4 and 4 of past 6 have been under, mind you, but May 12th Prior@Rusch match saw Chi winning 11-5 (total was 7.5)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time Out
(killer Walsh tune)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When you speak your mind out never say what you planned
(Joe Walsh-So What?-Time Out)
