Wednesday August 15th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday August 15th 2007

yesterday: 6-10 -3.64
August: 85-62 +34.09
ml 39-25 +14.92
rl 5-3 +2.5
totals 18-11 +5.18
parlays 23-23 +11.49
system picks 2-2 Tuesday; 14-11 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-2 Tuesday; 25-17 in August

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Fla 53% (-124)-3
mets 65 (-144)+5 RL 51 (+111)+3
phil 56 (-109)+3
Atl 79 (-235)+8 RL 64 (-112)+11
Mil 65 (-142)+6 RL 50 (+151)+10
Cubs 64 (-191)-2
Sd 65 (-183)even RL 50 (+121)+4
Lad 70 (-179)+5 RL 55 (+127)+10
Bost 80 (-255)+8 RL 67 (-122)+12
balt 56 (+131)+12
Seat 54 (-124)-2
Clev 54 (-184)-11 det 46 (+176)+9
Tor 65 (-124)+9 RL 50 (+167)+12
kc 53 (-119)-2
cws 51 (+106)+2

system totals

sf@Atl un9 66% (-105)+14 --Carlson is a good UNDER-ump
col@Sd un7.5 70 (+100)+20 --ump Iassogna is even
balt@Nyy un9 67 (-105)+15 --Wegner is an over-ump; kills this one
det@Clev ov10 65 (-105)+13 --Bucknor is a great OVER-ump
kc@Tex ov10 68 (-106)+16 --Bill Welke is an under-ump; kills this one


9-unit swing for me in Tampa?in between 2 strikeouts in the 9th, Big Al Reyes serves up a fish to Mike Lowell?D'Rays shoulda had more?I think they get slaughtered Wednesday. Brewers looked good for a while, too, up 3-zip early?flippin' Capuano's rating will drop a bit further, I guess. Two days down, so a streak of sorts?at least the losses have been bearable. I've been anxiously awaiting Wednesday's board for a couple of days, now, so a quick rebound is hoped for?

System picks isn't where I'm making my coin this month, but there's a whack of them for Wednesday: Mets, Braves (including runline), Brewers (same), Dodgers (same), Bosox (same), Blue Jays (same) and Orioles. Tigers are real close but a 46% probability doesn?t interest me much. 7 system picks. Wow! I might do some type of ROI breakdowns so I'll hold my comments until then.

Braves total looks good but I'll be a Braves backer so might stay off it. I'll likely try that over at Jacob's. Petco total might be worthwhile, too, but I've been holding my breath waiting for Jimenez to perform?at least as well as he did for his first few starts?but it just hasn't been happening?gotta see how much the Padres plate tonight?just checked?they've scored 7 already?Rockies under 3, at better than even money, if I'm trying a Petco under tomorrow as I no longer trust this Jimenez kid.

Will post plays, compose some prose, and survey the abyss as night turns into day.
GL

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

gl today man :toast:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks a lot, LMM

Let's kick some butt!

:toast:

 

[Love is Love]

I always look forward to this guy's threads....He takes the work seriously but doesn't take himself seriously...It's as much humor as it is money related....I really like SD, BOS, and PHI at the moment, btw..Not that anyone asked.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

might as well get this out of the way...
I'm curious to see if there's anything worthwhile...

Some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

d'backs ov4.5 +100 (+5)wasn't going to include it--only at +5--but even money looks good, and the D'Backs have hit Mitre well in the past

mets ov5 -105 (+7)Morris with good career numbers vs the Mets but I think they'll score--helps a lot with Beltran back--so this should be an easier time than Snell was, methinks
Pitt un4 -115 (-9)Maine hasn't been great, lately, but has good numbers vs the Pirates (like a lot of pitchers); ump Nauert is even, if memory serves

Nats un4.5 -140 (-7)too pricey for me

sf un4 -155 (-18)ump (Carlson) helps so I might try this on a parlay; runline is cheaper and looks safe...even safer then yesterday's looked
Atl ov5.5 +105 (+7)the under looks better

rockies un3 +105 (-14)if it gets to middle relief this could be tough; surprised that the Rock's were shut down totally yesterday, but this is Petco and not Coors; still considering this one
Padres un4.5 -140 (-8)I don't think I trust Jimenez anymore and the Padres just scored 8--mind you, 6 of that was in one frame...not like they were scoring all the time, or anything; pass on Pad's under

hou un3.5 -125 (-14)looks like this will be the only way the Dodgers can win ; Astros really suck against righties, but they've looked okay at the plate in this series; another I'm considering, but I'll be a Dodgers (sucker) player anyway

d'rays un4.5 -160 (-12)kinda pricey...runline looks much better as Sonnanstine is great Fade material (notice the capital "F"...that's proof!), speaking of which...
Bosox ov6 +110 (+17)biggest plus for a change, instead of the Yankees (getting to them); Bosox have been in a bit of a scoring slump, lately, but will face the softest opponent that they've had for a while...I think they smoke, here; if they score 7 they win by 2, so the runline is way safer (though a little more costly) as they might cover a -1.5 with a 4-or-5-spot.
--Schrieber is a bit of an over-ump, so any under plays at Fenway, today, could be risky (aren't they always?)

Nyy un5 -140 (-9)usually Yanks number is flipped' around to the plus side, but Bedard is looking as fine as any SP in the bigs, currently (and for a while, now) and has great numbers against NYY to boot; doesn't hurt that the Yankees O looked a little out-of-sorts on Tuesday; ; Wegner is a bit of an over-ump but I think that Bedard has enough command right now that it shouldn't matter; I'm on the O's moneyline but will consider this play

det ov4.5 -105 (+6)again a little lower (the +6) then I'd normally mention, but this is a low figure for a fairly hot-hitting team at Jacob's that is gauranteed 27 outs; Carmona has poor numbers vs the Tigers
Clev ov5.5 +100 (+8)impossiible to say what Jurrjens brings to the table, but the Indians have got to look for some big innings, knowing that they're facing a team that can light things up; Tigers pen might not survive Wednesday like it did on Tuesday
--ump Bucknor greatly helps either of these calls, and the game total over; he is a classic over-ump--has been for years--tiny strike zone

Laa un4.5 +100 (-7)Marcum has been just phenomenal for T.O.; Angels bats don't perform nearly as well on the road; a similar score to yesterday's could be in the offing, unless Moseley really stinks the joint up (which would suit me just fine...loving the moneyline for this one)
--Jays are at +5 for this contest, if you're interested (total of 5 is too high for Jays vs righty--even at home)
--ump Kellogg is even or maybe a slight under-lean

kc ov5 -115 (+8)these boys just aren't scoirng enough lately to have me begging for a 6

A's un4 +100 (-5)another I shouldn't bother to mention; +100 price tag is attractive, though; Blanton has poor numbers vs the Chisox so if you think the A's plate 3 or less you're probably better trying the moneyline...line is a bit too low, for me, as my 51% call on them, today, seems fair (51%er's are kicking some serious ass, mind you, at like 65% for the past 2 months)


That's the goods.

I might try a few...somehow.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks a lot, Love is Love

I appreciate the words

Nats scare me a little right now (Redding in particular) so I'm not (yet) on the Phillies (likely buried on an IF play, at least...maybe...)

Bosox look great tomorrow (today)

Padres I'd like a piece of (after yesterday's result, and despite my owning a live series play on the Rockies) in some fashion

GL!

:toast:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

return on investment breakdown for system picks
(economy style...just too many today)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
(Mets,Braves -1.5,Brewers,Dodgers,Bosox -1.5,orioles,Jays)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mets 65% (-144)+5

--Mets a huge edge pitching
--Mets a large edge at the plate

-144 is 69.4 cents on the dollar
65 x 0.694 = 45.11
35 x -1.......= -35
------------------------------
...................10.11%

Acceptable. Not great.
Need Maine to have a decent game, for a change (only been 2 bad in a row...he was great before that).
Worth a shot.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Braves -1.5 64% (-112)+11

--Braves a monster edge pitching
--Braves a huge edge at the plate

-112 is 89.3 cents otd
64 x 0.893 = 57.152
36 x -1......= -36
----------------------------------
...................21.152%

That's better.
Very high call for a runline but I think that the Braves bats will get to work a little earlier here, vs Ortiz (who has very poor numbers vs the Braves).
Hudson has been phenomenal for quite a stretch, now.
Very likely.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Brewers 65% (-142)+6

--Brewers a small edge at the plate
--Brewers a slightly larger edge pitching
--good home-field advantage for this matchup (yes...I caught yesterday's results )

-142 is 70.4 cents otd
65 x 0.704 = 45.76
35 x -1......= -35
--------------------------------
....................10.76%

Comparable to the Mets call.
At least here we have the home side, but with the Mets we're coming off of a winner.
2 plays look equivalent.
Worth a shot...I don't think Pineiro will duplicate his last game (he was great).
Gallardo the better SP.
Worth a shot.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Dodgers 70% (-179)+5
(this one could be ugly)

--Dodgers a massive edge pitching
--bats equivalent, for this one, the way the Dogers are (not) going

-179 is a pitiful 55.9 cents otd
70 x 0.559 = 39.13
30 x -1.......= -30
---------------------------------
....................9.13%

Just bordering on being worthwhile, here.
High probability keeps this play attractive; Jennings has been garbage for a good while and Penny is about the only positive that the Dodgers have left (save maybe that bullpen).
Could be a sucker play.
I'm giving it a try.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Bosox -1.5 67% (-122)+12
(this will be better)

--Bosox with the biggest pitching differential for Wednesday--it's GiNormous
--Bosox a large edge at the plate
--Dice-K has owned the 'Rays in both meetings this season

-122 is 82 cents otd
67 x 0.82 = 54.94
33 x -1.....= -33
----------------------------------
...................21.94%

Looking a little better than the Braves runline as there's a tiny bit higher ROI with a 3-point improvement on the probability.
Looks best, so far.
Lovin' it.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

orioles 56% (+131)+12

--O's with a medium-sized edge pitching (all for SP)
--Bedard has decent numbers vs the Yanks career and fabulous numbers from their 2 '07 encounters (2-0, 1.93 era...one home, one road)
--Yanks .865 OPS vs R but only .765 vs L
--O's OPS vs R only .741
--would like the game under but Wegner is a bad ump for such
--O's score yesterday...did you catch it?

56 x 1.31 = 73.36
44 x -1.....= -44
----------------------------
...................29.36%

The lowest probability but the highest ROI.
Certainly looks worth a try.
I wouldn't bet the farm, mind you.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Jays 65% (-124)+9

--Jays a massive edge pitching (all SP...Angels edge in the pen)
--bats comparable, here

-124 is 80.6 cents otd
65 x 0.806 = 52.39
35 x -1.......= -35
---------------------------------
....................17.39%

Of course this one looks a little better than the Mets and Brewers, which have the same probability but with higher lines.
Might put this one in 3rd place, by these assessments.
Definitely worthwhile.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

If I had to rank them I'd go...

Bosox RL
Braves RL
Jays
orioles
Dodgers
mets
Brewers


something like that.
All 7 will be in play for me.


:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

ROI on high calls parlays

Braves 79% (-235)+8
Bosox 80% (-255)+8
---------------------------------
2-teamer 63% (-102)+12

Excellent probability for a parlay--2 massive calls will do that.
Good value indicator, too...a +12 at a 63% call.

Was hoping that this one would look better than most.
Gotta decide how much I think it's worth--these 2 bigguns look worth parlaying elsewhere, too.
Might create some value where it's otherwise negligable.


:SIB

 

[RAYMOND]

LIKE IT THE PAR$$$

 

[rubiconed]

Thanks for the input !!! Just played the parlay for 5 units !!! Thanks, and GL today !!!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks all!

:toast:
:mj06:

weed: )

:SIB


Plays are coming shortly...I'm just fooling around trying to decide if I'm risking more today, or not. Likely to take it easy tomorrow so I wanna take advantage today; I just don't want to leave myself to twist in the wind if I miss a couple of key plays.

So far I'm on all 7 system picks discussed above.
Also on the Tigers, small.
8 straights
3 parlays and
4 IF plays so far
--already at over 25 units for the 15 plays, so I don't know if I should stop, or what.
Might just stay up through the day--got a couple of system picks happening at 1 pm anyway.

My posted picks should be irrelevant, at this point in time.
If you follow any of this then you know who I like, at least.

A 79 (Braves) and an 80 (Bosox) today, not to mention a 70 (Dodgers?!?:scared ).
Haven't been many that high in August.

No 70 yet in August but they're 16-9 in 2007 (64%...a bit low)
One 79 happened in June and it lost...I can't remember what the game was and it would take a bit to find out...I am kinda curious, though...it LOST afterall.
No 80's yet in August but they're 3-1 in 2007 (75%...Bosox win today and they will be 4-1 or 80%

65+ is doing really well in August.
Low 60's are hurting a little.
High 50's are rockin'.
Low 50's are outta sight.
(56 hasn't been great since kicking serious ass in April, for some strange reason...Orioles there today and I could use it)

Overall, for August, system sides are at 117-71 for all games.
That's 62.2% winners
For All Games.

Pretty solid.
Best month, I think, was May at 249-170 which is 59.4% winners FOR A....
August is looking to kick the crap outta that figure--'course, they did go 7-8 yesterday, a rare below .500 day.
Even system totals are helping, hitting at just below 60% for August.
System picks are just hurting, for some reason.
Which is why I should probably take it easy (too late) today (there's a record, I think, with 7).
Not to mention being on a 2-day losing streak.


I need to go outside for some fresh air and mull this over.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit!

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit!

PLAYS

pending from yesterday:

2-teamer
--Braves ml (Tues)W
--Braves ml (Wed)
+100
1/1

2-teamer
--Braves ml (Tues)W
--Bosox ml (Wed)
-104
1.04/1

system picks

mets -144 2.88/2
Braves -1.5 -112 2.24/2
Brewers -141 2.82/2
Dodgers -179 3.58/2
Red Sox -1.5 -122 3.66/3
orioles +131 2/2.62
Blue Jays -124 3.72/3

other picks

tigers +176 0.56/1

totals

det@Clev ov10 -105 0.84/0.8

2-teamer
--mets ml
--Dodgers ml
+150
0.8/1.2

2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Padres ml
+121
0.68/0.82

2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Bosox ml
-102
3.06/3

2-teamer
--Padres ml
--Bosox ml
+116
0.7/0.81

2-teamer
--Bosox ml
--Yankees under5
+129
0.7/0.9

2-teamer
--Bosox ml
--M's ml
+132
0.75/1

11-team IF bet
1.Braves -1.5 0.6/0.5
2.rockies under3 0.5/0.53
3.orioles 0.5/0.6
4.chisox 0.52/0.5
5.Bosox -1.5 0.7/0.5
6.tigers 1/1.65
7.Jays 1.08/0.8
8.mets -1.5 1/1.1
9.Brewers -1.5 1/1.45
10.Dodgers -1.5 1/1.1
11.phillies 2.3/2
0.6 to win max.10.73

10-team IF bet
1.Bosox -1.5 0.7/0.5
2.Jays -1.5 0.5/0.75
3.mets 0.75/0.5
4.Brewers -1.5 0.5/0.73
5.phillies 1.15/1
6.Padres -1.5 1/1.2
7.royals 1.25/1
8.Dodgers -1.5 0.67/0.75
9.chisox 1.41/1.35
10.det@Clev ov10 1.65/1.5
0.7 to win max.9.27

15-team IF bet
1.M's -1.5 0.5/0.83
2.mets 0.75/0.5
3.Yankees under5 0.7/0.5
4.Braves -1.5 0.65/0.5
5.Bosox -1.5 0.75/0.5
6.Jays 1.35/1
7.Lad -1.5 0.8/0.92
8.chisox 1.05/1
9.d'backs over4.5 0.65/0.65
10.phillies 1.15/1
11.Brewers 1.5/1
12.reds 1/1.7
13.Padres -1.5 2/2.5
14.tigers 2/3.3
15.royals 2.5/2
0.5 to win max.17.9

15-team IF bet
1.det@Clev ov10 0.66/0.6
2.col@Sd un7.5 0.6/0.6
3.giants under4 1.2/0.77
4.Jays 0.97/0.72
5.mets -1.5 0.69/0.77
6.Yankees under5 1.4/1
7.Bosox over6 1.4/1.54
8.Brewers -1.5 1/1.45
9.Dodgers -1.5 1.45/1.67
10.phillies 2.11/1.84
11.royals 0.95/0.77
12.chisox 1.72/1.64
13.M's -1.5 1.36/2.19
14.d'backs over4.5 1.85/1.85
15.reds 1.4/2.39
0.66 to win max.19.79

12-team IF bet
1.tigers over4.5 0.52/0.5
2.Dodgers -1.5 0.5/0.58
3.Padres -1.5 0.5/0.62
4.Yankees under5 0.7/0.5
5.Brewers -1.5 0.6/0.87
6.Braves -1.5 0.9/0.75
7.mets 1.2/0.8
8.Bosox -1.5 1.4/1
9.phillies 1.15/1
10.Jays 1.35/1
11.royals 1.25/1
12.chisox 1.47/1.4
0.52 to win max.10.02


It's unlikely that I'll be shut out with all this going on. I HAVE left myself to twist in the wind a little bit if the Bosox lose the early contest; I can't see it happening. My losing days?Monday and Tuesday?have been next-to-nothing compared to how the 3-day Fri-Sun score turned out. With this much action, and playing some pricey lines (actually only 3 plays greater than -140), I'll be thrilled if I can pull off any kind of plus today?would end the streak quick, after all. If I could make 5 units that would make my day. Not much to ask. Only talkin' 'bout a 1(6.66)% return on investment for my assault posted herein. Gotta be Black Sabbath time. Catch you during gametime as we celebrate the Red Sox massive victory!

Behold! A Sacred Gift!!!

:00hour Red Sox Mojo Filter!!! :00hour


One and one and one is three...


:weed:

:SIB

 

[Rcxslam]

first of all thanks for all your work, love reading your posts...but can you please expand on why you say Wegner is more of an over ump in the Yankees game?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wegner's K% has been under 62% for the past 2 seasons. It was also below this mark in 2004.

In 2004 and 2006 his record was heavily slanted to overs, only playing under in 2005.

His O/U record is 10-12 so far this year but I think that will change if the K% stays down like it is.

K% is just as important to me, or more important, than the ump's actual O/U record.

Below 62% I take to mean a fairly small strike zone.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

P.S.

I do kinda like the Yankees game to play under the 9.
I just refuse to play totals (95% of the time) if an inappropriate umpire is going.
Wegner, to me, seems, at the very least, a bit inappropriate.
Under looks like a smart call to me otherwise.

As you can see above, I've got some action on the Yankees under 5.

GL on your plays

:SIB

 

[Rcxslam]

thanks for the explanation extrap...much appreciated...

 

[Rcxslam]

I'll be on the under for a little bit...can't bring myself to bet against the Yanks today...the under is getting juiced and 3 regulars for the yanks are out of the lineup even tho they are all lefties...

13 mph winds blowing out to left...but I just stepped outside, and it didn't seem too windy to me..

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Crap...I guess I need a great evening to salvage my day.

Freakin' couldn't have been a bigger mismatch.
Bosox can't hit era 6+ Sonnanstine and
Dice-Fag gets a brain cramp in the 3rd.

I swear that I've been trying to keep the calls down some lately, due to the stats, and that's why there haven't been many in the 70's since the All-Star break, but, MAN!!!
...this was one totally lopsided contest by every angle conceivable.

I give up hope if the Bosox plate ZERO in the 6th.

Frig I need some breaks tonight

:com:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

Thank Hendrix for some of her graces.

Won't you believe it--it's just my luck

 

[peteyboy]

X,
at the game, and it looks like wegners strike zone is huge...for bedard at least

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

you take the time out, while at the game, to post this?

that's giving me some true respect, man

thank-ya