Wednesday August 20

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Can't sleep so here's some early thoughts. I'll come up with some percents later but need to see how today plays out.

Rodriguez@Parra
--Another big total by Milwaukee AND a line of -130 or better and I'd consider the Brewers. Might be higher anyways. I'd then pass. Neither SP has looked good lately and both lineups prefer lefties so the over looks best here. Hopefully no more than a 9. Ump Scott is even.

Balester@Myers
--kid may come around but he's still fresh and playing for a terrible club. Myers has been impressive since rejoining the big club. Maybe runline if the Phils show they can score in the opener of this homestand.

Jurrjens@Pelfrey
--Could be a good dog, here. Pelfrey has been nothing special lately AND he's been beaten on in both encounters with the Braves this season. Bravesticks erratic, lately, but have had some outbursts over the past while. Braves over a 4 if they offer it, barring an Eddings ump'ing or something. Braves at +120, maybe, if they show something Tuesday.

Arroyo@Lilly
--Lilly with poor numbers vs including a pounding back in July. Reds aren't hitting lately, mind you. Likely home win but will be too pricey.

Davis@Wellemeyer
--Cards should sweep this series but Davis has pitched quite well lately. I think Tuesday is the more likely shellacking. Under a 9 with a super-ump. Maybe not.

Peavy@Haren
--Both SP's decent lately; Jake a little better but that's par for their courses. Will try Padres if they can produce runs on Tuesday. Probably +110 to +120. 8 is a low total for 'Zona but might be worth a shot with a decent ump. Under4 the first 5 would be better as Padres pen stinks and 'Zona's not the greatest, either.

Francis@Billingsley
--Dodgers will tempt as they have preferred lefties all season. One caveat is Francis' solid numbers against including a shut-down back in June. Still, Jeff has looked like crap since returning from the DL. Perhaps Dodgers -1 -110 to -120 if Rox are shut down Tuesday.

Olsen@Cain
--Totally passing on this one.

Gonna submit and do the A.L.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Braden@Liriano
--Liriano with poor numbers vs and maybe still a bit of a risk at this stage. Will be expensive. I doubt I'll touch the A's the rest of the season. Under the 9 save for ump Knight and his slight over-leanage.

Dickey@Floyd
--M's, on the other hand, might be worth some plays down the stretch...will pay well, certainly. Floyd with poor numbers vs including from '08. He has been great at home, save for his last home start. Too pricey. Over a 9. Ump Bell an under-lean but may not matter here.

Bucholz@Waters
--Hendrix give me a 9 for this game (dream...likely a 10). Over-city. Ump Marquez an over-lean to boot.

Meche@Jackson
--Could be a worthwhile dog, here. No more than about +110, I would guess. Meche has been decent, lately. Lefty Jackson looked terrible in his debut and remains fresh meat. Royals over4.5 with a decent ump. Over a 9 might be in play, then, as well.

Pettitte@Purcey
--Jays 1st-rounder has shown something over the past couple of starts. Pettitte's been mediocre. Jays produce Tuesday--they have for the most part recently--and I'll consider a Jays line or +120ish or better. Maybe crazy. Have previously warned about my Jays plays. Still, Yanks in the tanks and certainly don't prefer lefties. Over a 9 with a McLelland or something ump'ing. Think I prefer a Jays longshot, here. Thursday may be a bigger bias blunder for me as Halladay--who's been brilliant against the Yanks including a fairly recent dominating performance at home--will face Ponson. Can't wait to see that line. Gimme better than -140.

Weaver@Garza
--Matt has been brilliant at home and is coming off a CG 2-hit shutout AT Rangers Ballpark. Wish he was more consistent but I'll still lean heavily to the Rays as Weaver has been merely so-so lately--could be going the way of his bro, IMO. Weaver does have good numbers vs including a dominating '08 start vs. I'd play it under a 9, which we likely won't see. Ump Meals used to be an under-lean but has titled over since '06. Best play looks to be the Rays, hopefully at better than -130.

Robertson@Millwood
--Gimme an 11 and how can I pass on the over? These SP's have been even more horrible lately than they have been for the season. Lean Tigers if they exploit the Rangers pitching once again on Tuesday...not that I could stomach backing Nate. Kinsler injury surely helps a Tigers lean (no even money, no go) but certainly not the over. Probably won't matter. Post a 12 and I'll spectate. Could happen. Ump Barry is even.

Got my SP's rated so percents should be easy to come up with. Still, would like to see Tuesday's results to be comfortable with the final results. Will add to this later, barring kidnapping by aliens.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

:scared I freakin' lost money!!!
There goes a 7-day winning streak.
Truth is---swear to Buckethead--I lost less than any day's profits for the 7-day win streak.
Still doesn't sit too well.
Almost made the Cards RL a Play of the Second.
P.o.S.
Stands for something else, if I'm not mistaken. More appropriate, for sure.
Cards over 5 call was for the whole series.

By-gones can kiss my arse.

Only 'capped a fews. Probably the brews.

Brewers 59%(-165)-4
...over9 65%(-104)+14
Phillies 70%(-245)-2 RL 56(-113)+2
tigers 55%(+113)+8
...over11 61%(-130?)+4
...tigers ov5.5 61%(-101)+10
braves 51%(+146)+10
Rays 65%(-129)+8
...under9 58%(-125?)+2
padres 46%(+145)+5

I'm on the following transgressions:

hou@Mil ov9 -104 small (both SP' a little better in day games)
braves +146 medium (see above for Pelfrey fade info)
padres +145 small (+142 1st5 looks slightly more beneficial...medium)
Dodgers -1 -133 small
Twins -1.5 small
royals nearly invisible
bost@Balt ov11 small (ump Marquez may save this...surely the Rangers can score 4-6, can' they?)
tigers ov5.5 small
tigers +113 small
Jays +129 small
Rays and 1st5 larger than a watermellon

I'll be happy with any sorta plus for a g@$#$ change.
Flippin' 1-day losing streaks bite, but I suppose they sure beat the shit out of those two-baggers.

Hoping not to be bagged again.
Flippin' Cards.

GL