Wednesday August 22nd 2007
yesterday: 10-10 +5.35
August: 143-116 +60.76
ml 61-40 +34.33
rl 8-7 +0.64
totals 29-19 +8.58
parlays & IFs 45-50 +17.21
system picks 2-0 yesterday; 36-19 in August (65%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1 yesterday; 39-26 in August (60%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Phil 63% (Hamels-Lowe)
Cin 58 (-109)+5
sd 58 (-144)-2
Hou 66 (-140)+7 RL 51 (+153)+11
Stl 58 (-140)-1
pitt 54 (+103)+4
Ariz 75 (-200)+8 RL 61 (+105)+12
cubs 53 (+100)+3
Tor 62 (-178)-3
seat 51 (+100)+1
kc 61 (-103)+10
Det 62 (-147)+2
(1)Balt 51 (-142)-8 tex 49 (+134)+6
bost 62 (-168)-1
nyy 59 (+100)+9
(2)Balt 51 (-140)-8 tex 49 (+120)+3
system totals
cubs@Sf un8 72% (-105)+20 --ump DeMuth is even
sd@Mets un7.5 66 (-106)+14 --ump Barrett is a decent UNDER-ump
seat@Min un9 65 (-123)+9 --ump Kellogg is even
clev@Det un9.5 69 (-110)+16 --ump Reynolds is even
Hit the big guys so I'll accept the mid-sized plus I earned?not quite like my last few winning days but it helps relieve me of Monday night's irritation, anyway. Went 3-3 on the moneyline, 1-0 on the runline, 2-1 on totals and 4-6 on my parlays and IFs. I'll be happy if I can keep things at +50 or more (matching my best month?May) but a +100 isn't out of the realm of possibility with still more than a week left in August; I'll do my darndest?
Astros, D'Backs and Royals are system picks for Wednesday. Woody has been sensational for his past 3 starts while Bacsik's starts were pretty poor before recently being sent to the bullpen; add in the fact that the Astros OPS vs L is about 60 points higher than vs R and it appears that the Astros should be able to finally take one from these pesky Nats. D'Backs I shouldn't have to comment on, if you've been following baseball at all, though dropping the first 2 in the series is a little discouraging for any D'Backs backers; still should take this one?easily?as Suppan is currently no match for the smoldering Webb and the D'Backs pen has been outperforming the Brewers pen in recent weeks; kinda pricey but the runline looks worth a shot. Royals also look less appealing after dropping the first two, but those were to Buehrle and Vazquez, the Pale Hose 2 best starters; Royals sticks should have a better time facing Contreras?who still hasn't officially "turned things around" yet?while Bannister will likely chuck a decent game for the defense; definitely looks worth a shot a current prices.
Also with value are the Yankees, who would've been a system pick if they weren't so humiliated on Tuesday; Pettitte's last bad game?9 starts ago?was against these very Angels at home?but he's been phenomenal in those 8 starts since (3 runs or less allowed each time); Lackey has poor career numbers vs the Yankees, to boot. Reds, Pirates, Cubs, Mariners, Tigers and the Rangers in game #1 also have some value but will be small plays for me if I tackle them. Padres, Jays and Bosox also seem likely winners, but the lines sorta negate any value?I might prod further.
Last few days has seen system totals revert back to calling all unders, again. I don't know if it's the matchups or if my pitching ratings are too high, but at least they're still hitting at a respectable clip (2-1 yesterday brings me back up to 60%...would like to keep it there throughout August). The Cubs-Giants game looks promising as Zito appears to have gotten into a groove and Hill has been pretty sharp lately, too; yesterday's pitcher's duel only makes it look tastier. That Shea total is a bit of a turn off due to the low number, Lawrence starting for the Mets, and the lit-up scoreboard yesteday at Shea; ump helps a little but I think that this one might be asking for trouble. Both Batista and Silva have good numbers vs opponent for that Metrodome game, not to mention that the Twins still really aren't hitting, but the M's offense is on fire and I've never been a big Silva fan, though he's been great for 3 straight starts now; Batista has been decent over his past 3 since his last beauty 4 starts ago. Comerica under was a system total yesterday but I didn't listen?woulda been nice to be on that one (2-1 final); arguably a better pitching matchup going today as Byrd has good numbers vs the Tigers and has been great in 2 of his past 3 starts (the other was a real stinker); still have the potent offenses to contend with and Verlander has been unspectacular, now, for about his past 9 starts.
I may not have too much more to offer than that (besides my plays) as I've got a few days worth of updates to do, I want to 'cap (at least) Thursday, if not Friday, too, and then I've got an early morning appointment.
I gotta play things right, today. Still an afterglow of doom remains from Monday's downturn.
I need to turn this newfound winning into a streak to regain my confidence.
Will post what's played. May losses be stayed.
GL
yesterday: 10-10 +5.35
August: 143-116 +60.76
ml 61-40 +34.33
rl 8-7 +0.64
totals 29-19 +8.58
parlays & IFs 45-50 +17.21
system picks 2-0 yesterday; 36-19 in August (65%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1 yesterday; 39-26 in August (60%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Phil 63% (Hamels-Lowe)
Cin 58 (-109)+5
sd 58 (-144)-2
Hou 66 (-140)+7 RL 51 (+153)+11
Stl 58 (-140)-1
pitt 54 (+103)+4
Ariz 75 (-200)+8 RL 61 (+105)+12
cubs 53 (+100)+3
Tor 62 (-178)-3
seat 51 (+100)+1
kc 61 (-103)+10
Det 62 (-147)+2
(1)Balt 51 (-142)-8 tex 49 (+134)+6
bost 62 (-168)-1
nyy 59 (+100)+9
(2)Balt 51 (-140)-8 tex 49 (+120)+3
system totals
cubs@Sf un8 72% (-105)+20 --ump DeMuth is even
sd@Mets un7.5 66 (-106)+14 --ump Barrett is a decent UNDER-ump
seat@Min un9 65 (-123)+9 --ump Kellogg is even
clev@Det un9.5 69 (-110)+16 --ump Reynolds is even
Hit the big guys so I'll accept the mid-sized plus I earned?not quite like my last few winning days but it helps relieve me of Monday night's irritation, anyway. Went 3-3 on the moneyline, 1-0 on the runline, 2-1 on totals and 4-6 on my parlays and IFs. I'll be happy if I can keep things at +50 or more (matching my best month?May) but a +100 isn't out of the realm of possibility with still more than a week left in August; I'll do my darndest?
Astros, D'Backs and Royals are system picks for Wednesday. Woody has been sensational for his past 3 starts while Bacsik's starts were pretty poor before recently being sent to the bullpen; add in the fact that the Astros OPS vs L is about 60 points higher than vs R and it appears that the Astros should be able to finally take one from these pesky Nats. D'Backs I shouldn't have to comment on, if you've been following baseball at all, though dropping the first 2 in the series is a little discouraging for any D'Backs backers; still should take this one?easily?as Suppan is currently no match for the smoldering Webb and the D'Backs pen has been outperforming the Brewers pen in recent weeks; kinda pricey but the runline looks worth a shot. Royals also look less appealing after dropping the first two, but those were to Buehrle and Vazquez, the Pale Hose 2 best starters; Royals sticks should have a better time facing Contreras?who still hasn't officially "turned things around" yet?while Bannister will likely chuck a decent game for the defense; definitely looks worth a shot a current prices.
Also with value are the Yankees, who would've been a system pick if they weren't so humiliated on Tuesday; Pettitte's last bad game?9 starts ago?was against these very Angels at home?but he's been phenomenal in those 8 starts since (3 runs or less allowed each time); Lackey has poor career numbers vs the Yankees, to boot. Reds, Pirates, Cubs, Mariners, Tigers and the Rangers in game #1 also have some value but will be small plays for me if I tackle them. Padres, Jays and Bosox also seem likely winners, but the lines sorta negate any value?I might prod further.
Last few days has seen system totals revert back to calling all unders, again. I don't know if it's the matchups or if my pitching ratings are too high, but at least they're still hitting at a respectable clip (2-1 yesterday brings me back up to 60%...would like to keep it there throughout August). The Cubs-Giants game looks promising as Zito appears to have gotten into a groove and Hill has been pretty sharp lately, too; yesterday's pitcher's duel only makes it look tastier. That Shea total is a bit of a turn off due to the low number, Lawrence starting for the Mets, and the lit-up scoreboard yesteday at Shea; ump helps a little but I think that this one might be asking for trouble. Both Batista and Silva have good numbers vs opponent for that Metrodome game, not to mention that the Twins still really aren't hitting, but the M's offense is on fire and I've never been a big Silva fan, though he's been great for 3 straight starts now; Batista has been decent over his past 3 since his last beauty 4 starts ago. Comerica under was a system total yesterday but I didn't listen?woulda been nice to be on that one (2-1 final); arguably a better pitching matchup going today as Byrd has good numbers vs the Tigers and has been great in 2 of his past 3 starts (the other was a real stinker); still have the potent offenses to contend with and Verlander has been unspectacular, now, for about his past 9 starts.
I may not have too much more to offer than that (besides my plays) as I've got a few days worth of updates to do, I want to 'cap (at least) Thursday, if not Friday, too, and then I've got an early morning appointment.
I gotta play things right, today. Still an afterglow of doom remains from Monday's downturn.
I need to turn this newfound winning into a streak to regain my confidence.
Will post what's played. May losses be stayed.
GL
