Wednesday August 29th 2007
yesterday: 11-8 +4.77
August: 197-163 +88.06
ml 88-53 +56.27
rl 9-10 -0.46
totals 42-30 +9.33
parlays & IFs 58-70 +22.92
system picks 50-24 in August (67.6%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 55-37 in August (59.8%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Lad 57% (-175)-7 wash 43 (+170)+5
col 55 (-110)+2
Fla 57 (-106)+5
cin 53 (-107)+1
mets 60 (-109)+7
Cubs 55 (Zambrano-Sheets)
Hou 63 (-156)+2
Sd 59 (-147)-1
tor 64 (-135)+6
Seat 52 (-119)-3
Clev 54 (-102)+3
Nyy 54 (-108)+2
tb 66 (-124)+10 RL 52 (+131)+8
det 52 (-112)-1
Tex 56 (-109)+3
system totals
wash@Lad un7.5 79% (-115)+25 --ump Scott is even (his best under results are from this season, at 11-15 with a K% over 63)
cws@Tex ov10.5 69 (-115)+15 --ump Marquez is an acceptable OVER-ump (low K%)
A two-day winning streak in the books now, despite missing a few key plays yesterday (D'Backs,Braves); nice hits on the Indians and Giants as well as a nice break with the Angels victory making one of my IF plays survive until the 8th pick. Still three whole days left in August?maybe a 100-unit month IS still within reach for me?
Mets and D'Rays are system picks for Wednesday. Numbers vs opponent don't look helpful in that Perez-Moyer matchup but I'll totally take Ollie over Jamie the way the two of them are chuckin' currently; Mets facing a lefty always helps, too (OPS vs L about 70 points higher than vs R); Philly looking good in this series, so far, but I figure that the Metros can bring this one home. Trachsel has horrible numbers against the D'Rays, including from '07, while Shields looks really good lately; add in the D'Rays 7-day OPS of .864 (which probably doesn't even include their vicious output from Tuesday) compared to the Orioles 7-day OPS of .724 and I think that things look rosy for the visitors; might actually sweep this series as they'll have Kazmir closing things out tomorrow.
I also like the Blue Jays as I'm a real sucker for them when they get to face a lefty; Halladay-DiNardo favours the Jays and my boys are looking pretty good in the series so I'm bangin' on the drum, here; DiNardo has been hit hard by the Jays before, including this season; Doc, also, has poor numbers vs opponent, but he's in pretty good form lately?only concern I have with him has been his heavy workload as he seems to be throwing 110-125 pitches every fifth day.
No other sides thrill me too much, with the info gathered so far. Nationals I'm considering as Hill has been fabulous and I figure that he'll give the Nats a chance in that one. Lowry has bad career numbers vs the Rockies but the G-men are pretty hot and have been getting fabulous pitching lately, from both starters and the bullpen. Willis has had 2 good and 1 bad vs the Braves this season, but I think I'd only try this game if it becomes dog-money for the home squad as the Fish are pretty cold, despite their win on Tuesday (totally pitching?7 day OPS of .757 is respectable and was recently over .800). Reds will have a game on their hands as the Pirates are kinda hot and Snell is no slouch. Astros are too pricey with Oswalt, maybe, not 100%. Indians definitely have a shot but I need a better payout going against Santana, whether the game is being played at Jacob's or on the moon. Yankees have hit Josh well, including in '07, but I again think I need a better line to tempt me?fading Beckett doesn't sound like a smart move. Rangers, of course, will have a shot against the (still) pitiful Chisox but I'm not a big Loe fan and Garland might be due to toss a good game for a change. The ones I didn't mention (Padres, Mariners, Tigers) all show negative value by current lines and I'm fairly confident in the current accuracy of my calls so I'll tay off of them. Won't stop me from commenting: Padres I'd really like save for one thing?Maddux's numbers vs the D'Backs?he's 1-10 with a 5.28 era in 16 starts, including 0-1 with an era of 9.00 for his only '07 meeting; Owings also has decent numbers vs the Padres; all of that is factored into my 'cap and I still get a fairly high call on the Padres but not high enough to proide any value against current lines. Both Jered Weaver and Felix Hernandez have poor numbers vs opponent this season, and both have been currently tossing a solid game every other start with some mediocre ones tossed in; game looks to be totally up for grabs. Tigers game also looks up-for-grabs as Miller wasn't so hot in his first off of the DL, Royals hit better vs lefties than righties and get to now see one back-to-back, and Greinke has some decent stuff so the Royals should make a game of this one.
I really like that Dodger Stadium game under but I don't know if I like the other posted total. Penny and Hill will very likely keep the score down for the first 5 or 6 innings so I'm really hoping that the bullpens can do some decent work behind these two outstanding pitchers; Nats have been hitting better lately (7-day at .747) but still sport a measley .684 OPS vs R; Dodgers 7-day has picked up, to .804, but their best work is still against lefties (OPS vs R .723); wish it was an 8 but for this matchup I'm just glad we're not stuck with a 7 (would still be a system total). Garland and Loe both have poor numbers vs opponent PLUS the umpire helps out a touch?I dunno?I guess I just still prefer my unders to my overs, mind you?system overs have been doing great this month?I think better than unders (wish I'd been keeping track?maybe a project for the off-season (analyze stats better)()). No other totals really interest me, though I might have a quick boo at team totals.
12 units?I wonder if I can bag that over the next Three Days.
I am a pround man anyway...
Covered now by three days...
We saw shadows of the morning light
the shadows of the evening sun
till the shadows and the light were one.
(Jane's Addiction, Three Days)
GL
yesterday: 11-8 +4.77
August: 197-163 +88.06
ml 88-53 +56.27
rl 9-10 -0.46
totals 42-30 +9.33
parlays & IFs 58-70 +22.92
system picks 50-24 in August (67.6%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 55-37 in August (59.8%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Lad 57% (-175)-7 wash 43 (+170)+5
col 55 (-110)+2
Fla 57 (-106)+5
cin 53 (-107)+1
mets 60 (-109)+7
Cubs 55 (Zambrano-Sheets)
Hou 63 (-156)+2
Sd 59 (-147)-1
tor 64 (-135)+6
Seat 52 (-119)-3
Clev 54 (-102)+3
Nyy 54 (-108)+2
tb 66 (-124)+10 RL 52 (+131)+8
det 52 (-112)-1
Tex 56 (-109)+3
system totals
wash@Lad un7.5 79% (-115)+25 --ump Scott is even (his best under results are from this season, at 11-15 with a K% over 63)
cws@Tex ov10.5 69 (-115)+15 --ump Marquez is an acceptable OVER-ump (low K%)
A two-day winning streak in the books now, despite missing a few key plays yesterday (D'Backs,Braves); nice hits on the Indians and Giants as well as a nice break with the Angels victory making one of my IF plays survive until the 8th pick. Still three whole days left in August?maybe a 100-unit month IS still within reach for me?
Mets and D'Rays are system picks for Wednesday. Numbers vs opponent don't look helpful in that Perez-Moyer matchup but I'll totally take Ollie over Jamie the way the two of them are chuckin' currently; Mets facing a lefty always helps, too (OPS vs L about 70 points higher than vs R); Philly looking good in this series, so far, but I figure that the Metros can bring this one home. Trachsel has horrible numbers against the D'Rays, including from '07, while Shields looks really good lately; add in the D'Rays 7-day OPS of .864 (which probably doesn't even include their vicious output from Tuesday) compared to the Orioles 7-day OPS of .724 and I think that things look rosy for the visitors; might actually sweep this series as they'll have Kazmir closing things out tomorrow.
I also like the Blue Jays as I'm a real sucker for them when they get to face a lefty; Halladay-DiNardo favours the Jays and my boys are looking pretty good in the series so I'm bangin' on the drum, here; DiNardo has been hit hard by the Jays before, including this season; Doc, also, has poor numbers vs opponent, but he's in pretty good form lately?only concern I have with him has been his heavy workload as he seems to be throwing 110-125 pitches every fifth day.
No other sides thrill me too much, with the info gathered so far. Nationals I'm considering as Hill has been fabulous and I figure that he'll give the Nats a chance in that one. Lowry has bad career numbers vs the Rockies but the G-men are pretty hot and have been getting fabulous pitching lately, from both starters and the bullpen. Willis has had 2 good and 1 bad vs the Braves this season, but I think I'd only try this game if it becomes dog-money for the home squad as the Fish are pretty cold, despite their win on Tuesday (totally pitching?7 day OPS of .757 is respectable and was recently over .800). Reds will have a game on their hands as the Pirates are kinda hot and Snell is no slouch. Astros are too pricey with Oswalt, maybe, not 100%. Indians definitely have a shot but I need a better payout going against Santana, whether the game is being played at Jacob's or on the moon. Yankees have hit Josh well, including in '07, but I again think I need a better line to tempt me?fading Beckett doesn't sound like a smart move. Rangers, of course, will have a shot against the (still) pitiful Chisox but I'm not a big Loe fan and Garland might be due to toss a good game for a change. The ones I didn't mention (Padres, Mariners, Tigers) all show negative value by current lines and I'm fairly confident in the current accuracy of my calls so I'll tay off of them. Won't stop me from commenting: Padres I'd really like save for one thing?Maddux's numbers vs the D'Backs?he's 1-10 with a 5.28 era in 16 starts, including 0-1 with an era of 9.00 for his only '07 meeting; Owings also has decent numbers vs the Padres; all of that is factored into my 'cap and I still get a fairly high call on the Padres but not high enough to proide any value against current lines. Both Jered Weaver and Felix Hernandez have poor numbers vs opponent this season, and both have been currently tossing a solid game every other start with some mediocre ones tossed in; game looks to be totally up for grabs. Tigers game also looks up-for-grabs as Miller wasn't so hot in his first off of the DL, Royals hit better vs lefties than righties and get to now see one back-to-back, and Greinke has some decent stuff so the Royals should make a game of this one.
I really like that Dodger Stadium game under but I don't know if I like the other posted total. Penny and Hill will very likely keep the score down for the first 5 or 6 innings so I'm really hoping that the bullpens can do some decent work behind these two outstanding pitchers; Nats have been hitting better lately (7-day at .747) but still sport a measley .684 OPS vs R; Dodgers 7-day has picked up, to .804, but their best work is still against lefties (OPS vs R .723); wish it was an 8 but for this matchup I'm just glad we're not stuck with a 7 (would still be a system total). Garland and Loe both have poor numbers vs opponent PLUS the umpire helps out a touch?I dunno?I guess I just still prefer my unders to my overs, mind you?system overs have been doing great this month?I think better than unders (wish I'd been keeping track?maybe a project for the off-season (analyze stats better)()). No other totals really interest me, though I might have a quick boo at team totals.
12 units?I wonder if I can bag that over the next Three Days.
I am a pround man anyway...
Covered now by three days...
We saw shadows of the morning light
the shadows of the evening sun
till the shadows and the light were one.
(Jane's Addiction, Three Days)
GL
